Brad Bergesen Season Review

by ravensfan3 on Oct 9, 2009 2:00 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

I just posted this article on my blog and want to share it here.

Brad Bergesen was never considered a top prospect in the Orioles’ system. I always thought of him as a solid inning-eater type. Bergesen burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2009. Bergesen has great control, but a low strike out rate. There were always concerns that he would not strike out enough batters to succeed at the big league level, Bergesen would show he could still be effective.

Bergesen made his debut on April 21st, 2009 against the Chicago White Sox. It was a solid start, he pitched 5.2 innings giving up 3 runs (1 earned). He struck out four batters, and only walked 2. I thought this was a great performance, and I could not wait to see Bergesen pitch again.

In the month of May, Bergesen showed some potential in a few amazing outings. On May 29th at Detroit he pitched 8 innings allowing only two runs, and he did not walk a batter. The Orioles’ desperately needed these type of starts from there pitchers. They needed consistent pitchers who went deep into their starts, and Bergesen continued to do that.

June was Bergesen’s best month of the season. His June ERA was 2.23. He made more brilliant starts, going deep into games and giving the bullpen much needed rest. On June 9th Bergesen had the best outing of his career, he pitched eight shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners. He did not walk one batter in that game, once again showing his excellent control. On June 14th Bergesen pitched the first complete game of his career against the Atlanta Braves, he allowed only two runs.

The month of July was another great month for Bergesen (2.72 ERA). He showed he could pitch well against division rivals such as the Red Sox. On July 1st against the Red Sox he pitched eight innings allowing only one run. All of his starts in the month of July were quality starts. Bergesen’s pitching in July was great, but he would end up being very unlucky. On July 30th against the Kansas City Royals, Billy Butler hit a rocket that hit Bergesen’s knee. The ball bounced to Matt Wieters and he threw to first for the out, to end the inning. Bergesen hopped of the field and into the dugout, falling down once he got into the clubhouse.

Bergesen’s devastating knee injury would cost him the rest of his extremely bright season. Bergesen was thought to be one of the leaders for the AL rookie of the year award before his season ended. Bergesen was by far, the Orioles’ most consistent starting pitcher and it was a big blow to the rotation. I really hope the Bergesen’s knee heals well, and that he can rebound in 2010 and pitch like he did in 2009.

So how do you guys think Bergesen will pitch in 2010?

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I think he'll kick ass

When he got hurt, he was working on seven or eight consecutive quality starts, including a complete game and pitching into the 8th inning in quite a few. He was getting better.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Oct 9, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He'll be our #3 guy in the rotation

So hopefully he’ll be able to get 12-15 wins next year and continue on his progress that made him a stud last year.

by crabchips on Oct 9, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure how he'll do

ERA: 3.43
FIP: 4.10

Maybe a Nick Blackburn type? I think he’ll be a decent enough #4 pitcher, but I’m not sure that will be as good as he pitched in 2009. His inability to miss bats is a little worrisome, though you don’t need to strike out a bunch of hitters to be a good pitcher.

fangraphs page.

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by dfa on Oct 9, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What is FIP again?

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by ravensfan3 on Oct 9, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fielding independent ERA. it takes defense out of the equation and measures the pitcher’s ability based on the player’s pitching only.

"Well, I believe in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap."

by birdman on Oct 9, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bergesen will be a dependable starter

for the Orioles for the next decade if he can get out of the way of line drives. I hope his injury heals so he can work out this off season. Sounds like a bone bruise which can take a while to heal. Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Britton. Sounds pretty good to me. Wouldn’t surprise me if Guthrie was traded this winter. Arrieta and Britton should be on board for 2011, at least.

by fuddnelson on Oct 10, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eggs chickens hatch count

all penciled in, check.

bergensen – in – one decade
guthrie – out – with the bathwater

by b_duardo on Oct 10, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bergesen will succeed

If he can maintain his excellent home run and walk rates. It seems like he will never strike guys out at a decent pace, but he can definitely be a good pitcher without the Ks if those other two numbers stay as low as they were in 2009. Luckily for us, his major league numbers are pretty much in line with his minor league numbers, so I do believe he can be the pitcher we’ve seen so far into the future (well, maybe not a 135 ERA+ pitcher, but certainly above average).

The only question for me is how he comes back from that nasty injury. Pitchers can tend to be tentative with putting their weight back on a recently damaged leg like that.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 10, 2009 11:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Small quibble

Bergesen’s devastating knee injury would cost him the rest of his extremely bright season.

It wasn’t a knee injury. There’s nothing wrong with his knee. Now, that shin that took a baseball traveling rough 90mph when it hit? Yeah, that was an injury. It’s one that shouldn’t affect him at all going forward, though.

"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK

by duck on Oct 10, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else think he could be a trade piece for a power bat?

by No More Steroids Please on Oct 11, 2009 1:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A young pitcher, who has shown a great deal of success at the major league level

trade him? Maybe if we know something that everyone else doesn’t. Unless we find a fatal flaw, there is just no way.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Oct 11, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I say yes

If we can get a proven bat, do it. His K rate suggests he may have gotten a tad bit lucky this year. If he was even a tad bit lucky, that means he’s league average over the long haul. And if we can trade a lucky league-average pitcher for a bat, you do it.

"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK

by duck on Oct 11, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who else is going to throw 7 straight QS

for the Orioles next year? Don’t say Guthrie.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Oct 11, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i have to agree here

matusz maybe but i’d rather see bergesen pitching for us rather than try and trade him. i mean, it always depends on the bat, but i’d rather hold onto him then get some guy who might hit home runs.

by twistedlogic on Oct 11, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Cabrera throw a bunch of QS in a row?

Not an indication of pitching excellence.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 12, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want to disagree

The K rate is very low, yes, but he keeps the ball in the ballpark and doesn’t walk guys. You can definitely succeed without striking out guys if you can do those other two things.

A 4.10 FIP is above average (IIRC 4.40 is league average, no?).

But if the Brewers want to make Bergesen the centerpiece of a Prince Fielder trade, of course you do it, that’s silly. But I’d rather have 3E than, say, Paul Konerko or James Loney.

By the way, the Orioles first basemen were the absolute worst in baseball (well, Huffnstuff was the worst full-time guy, anyway…I just looked it up…so basically anything would be an improvement next year)

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Oct 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

A 4.10 FIP is above average (IIRC 4.40 is league average, no?).

Found this at fangraphs:

For instance, a 4.40 FIP divided by .92 will give you a 4.78 FIP. That .92 is the ERA-RA bridge, and allows us to conclude that 4.40 would be a league average FIP in the American League last year. So, a pitcher with a 4.40 FIP in a neutral park would be a league average pitcher

It’s worth noting my understand of FIP is limited at best and tRa not at all.

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by dfa on Oct 12, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs