The Changing of the O's

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:12 PM EST in Hot Stove Comment 29 comments

2007 - Pre-MacPhail. 2010 - Based solely on current players. How much have we improved, really? Discuss. Is it fair to say that the only position where the 2010 Orioles are worse off than the 2007 Orioles is shortstop?

All lineups are based on who played that most games at that position in each year.

2007 Baltimore Orioles	2008 Baltimore Orioles	2009 Baltimore Orioles	2010 Baltimore Orioles
C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Ramon Hernandez	C: Matt Wieters	C: Matt Wieters
1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Kevin Millar	1B: Aubrey Huff	1B: Luke Scott
2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts	2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Melvin Mora	3B: Ty Wigginton
SS: Miguel Tejada	SS: Juan Castro	SS: Cesar Izturis	SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Jay Payton	LF: Luke Scott	LF: Nolan Reimold	LF: Felix Pie
CF: Corey Patterson	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones	CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis	RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Aubrey Huff	DH: Luke Scott	DH: Nolan Reimold

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I like that.

But there is no way Pie plays the most games at LF unless two players lose appendages during the year.

Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt

by BPinOK on Nov 16, 2009 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heh yeah probably

But like I said, based on current players only it’s pretty much the only way to go.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree. Isn’t Reimold the LF with Pie the super-sub OF?… either way the 2010 chart shows that the O’s most likely will sign at least one guy, if not two. Wiggy and Pie are both best off the bench and Scott was never given a real shake at 1B, most likely leaving him to be the DH role.

by bigity b on Nov 16, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know that I agree that Pie is best off the bench

But yeah, 2010 is just presumption based on the idea that the O’s don’t get anyone else (which of course they will)

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess after seeing his impressive finish last year that argument makes sense. Maybe it’s just my personal preference but I like him off the bench for the flexibility he could provide (defensive OF replacement, late game base-runner if he learns to read the 3B coach, regular spot starts all over the OF to keep Jones, Markakis, Reimold fresh, etc). I’m just not a fan with Reimold at DH because I think we’re just scratching the surface with him. I could see Montanez as the OF displaced to being the DH though…

by bigity b on Nov 16, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He may end up being best off the bench

I just think it might be too soon to tell.

Montanez has no place on this team.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

side question: do you think Montanez is still considered an asset / prospect enough to include in a deal? OR will the O’s try him out at DH? I agree he has no place on this team so the best way he could make it is as the RH DH platoon to Scott (LH DH).

by bigity b on Nov 16, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think anybody other than that one guy on this blog

has considered Montanez an asset for the last 3 years.

by O'sFan21 on Nov 16, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He might be a throw in for someone

But I don’t think he has much value.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Montanez can't hit

something something something…

by daveh873 on Nov 16, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

deal with it?

by twistedlogic on Nov 16, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bing-o

by daveh873 on Nov 16, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The real question

is, to me, how much credit does Andy MacPhail deserve for the overall roster improvement (and I think it’s pretty obvious that the overall positional strength has improved).

To wit, he inherited Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Matt Wieters (from the 2010 roster) although he did extend Roberts and gave Markakis a good long-term contract, these players weren’t really MacPhail’s contribution.

He did bring in Scott, Pie, Jones, Izturis, and Wigginton…which is frankly a rather hit or miss group (obviously Jones is great but the rest are at least flawed). Of course, Andy has been working on his biggest and most important job on the pitching side – though he inherited Guthrie, Hernandez, Bergesen, Arrieta, Britton, Erbe, and was basically handed Brian Matusz.

I guess what I’m saying is that, yes things have gotten better, but I’m not convinced that the difference maker has been Andy MacPhail (yet). If Josh Bell, Felix Pie, and Chris Tillman turn into studs and MacPhail signs some solid free agents (instead of the veteran trash that’s been accumulating, no offense intended to Adam Eaton), then we may truly start considering him our savior.

Unfortunately, given our competition and current standing in the heirarchy of baseball, I’m a little doubtful.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 16, 2009 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes

being a good GM means not screwing things up that are already in motion. A more antsy GM could have easily not extended Markakis/Roberts, traded away many of the pitchers, and further squandered the farm system.

by O'sFan21 on Nov 16, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or let me restate this

Things have gotten better, at least offensively, but what happens next – this winter and next – will be more defining than the Adam Jones trade, for good or ill.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 16, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think if anything

Wieters, Reimold, Markakis, etc prove that maybe Flanagan should get at least a little credit.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would give more credit to Joe Jordan than Duqnangan.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Nov 16, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The one thing I have to credit MacPhail for...

…is that not only has the roster improved, but the value of the roster for what is being paid has improved a lot.

Even if we say that MacPhail hasn’t been responsible for an increase in our overall talent, he’s doing it for half the cost of the 2007 team. Even if those results haven’t been felt on the field, they have been felt in the community, with Baltimore now being ranked among the best in baseball at quality affordable promotions for the fans. It may not translate in a pure wins and losses way, but making Camden a great and affordable place for Marylanders to go to the games matters to me. Maybe not as much as winning, but I do care.

by James F on Nov 16, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cannot overlook your first point. We’re getting the same production as 2007 but for half of the total cost. I.e. Watching young prospects grow up and learn how to be a pro (and unfortunately lose) is more fun watching than signing names (cough*Thome*cough) and lose anyway.

by bigity b on Nov 16, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right on.

couldn’t have said it better myself

by Y Not on Nov 16, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McPhail has made the entire organization better and deepr (AAA through A). We’re well stocked with pitching prospects (SP, RP, and C) at all levels too. I don’t have the stats, but I do know off hand that the O’s farm system has been ranked higher and higher with each pasing year McPhail’s stuffed it with shiny, new kids.

by bigity b on Nov 16, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We are worse at 3B

Since 2007 Mora was better than Ty Wigginton.

We could get into an argument about 2007 (Brian Bob, Markakis) vs 2010 same, but it’s probably a wash.

"I feel like I learned more in eight major league starts than I did in three years of college," -- Brian Matusz

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 16, 2009 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, you're right

I think my entire mindset about Melvin Mora has been tainted. Hopefully that’ll clear up with time.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So the theory is that Wiggy...

…and Scott are an upgrade over the 2007 Millar and Mora?

I can’t agree with that, because defense counts. Although I don’t think in the end that either Wiggy or Scott are our starters at those positions.

by James F on Nov 16, 2009 3:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scott is def an upgrade over Millar

IMO

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 16, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at the defensive numbers on Fangraphs...

…you’re right. Even though Millar had a pretty good 2007 season with the bat, his fielding wasn’t positive, and although it wasn’t as bad as UZR says Scott was in LF this season (Scott actually has a positive UZR at 1b but the sample size is too small to mean anything), Scott was better with the bat (although not by that much – a wOBA of .355 to Millar’s 2007 .348. Considering that Millar made less than $3m in 2007, it isn’t a huge advantage to Scott, but an advantage nonetheless.

by James F on Nov 16, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It will interesting to see how this pans out in a couple years. In theory, guys like Wigginton, Scott, and Izturis are not part of the long term solution. The performance of the guys who step up to fill those positions will be MacPhail’s true measure, IMO.

"If you're gonna die after 24, might as well jump out at 23:59, no?"

by Laich It Or Lump It on Nov 16, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs