Tuesday Bird Droppings

by Camden Chat on Nov 17, 2009 6:00 AM EST in Open Threads Comment 59 comments

Orioles FanFest in Sarasota
Heath from Dempsey's Army attended the Sarasota FanFest and gave a great account. Sounds like the Birds are going to have a lovely new home. -Stacey

Reds Re-Sign Ramon Hernandez
I guess they like him better than the O's did. Plus they don't have Matt Wieters. -Stacey

BaseballAmerica.com: Bell, Snyder Upgrade On Defense
Great article by Ben Badler on the Bell and Snyder and their improving defense. -Stacey

Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events
Speaking of Bell and Snyder, they continue to rake in the AFL. Sure, it's just the AFL, but it's nice to see both guys among the league leaders in hitting. It's better than both of them sucking in the AFL, right? -zk

If I Were a Rich Man: On the Baltimore Orioles | FanGraphs Baseball
Carson Cistulli at FanGraphs points out that the Orioles are starting the offseason with only $40M committed to payroll, and they are in a position to spend, spend, spend. He'd start by throwing a butt-ton of dinero at Nick Johnson.-zk

PressBox: Trembley Warns Pitchers: 'Get Tough'
As soon as he found out he would return in 2010, Trembley began the process of speaking to core players, guys like Markakis, Jones and second baseman Brian Roberts, to set the stage for what he hopes will occur next season....The skipper pointedly called out his starting pitchers, telling them he expected them to be physically ready to pitch when spring training begins in February in Sarasota, Fla. He also put on-the-bubble guys like right-handers Matt Albers (whose conditioning has been called into question) and Dennis Sarfate (recovering from injuries) on notice that they have to pitch better. -zk

SimonOnSports: Blogging the Offseason: Baltimore Orioles
Jeff from ROR answers 10 off-season Qs about the Os.-zk

MASNsports.com
Injury updates on Reimold, 3E1N, and Dr. Jones. -zk

Leave the gun. Take the Open Thread.

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Comments

But I want the new season to start right now

Did that BA article get anyone else excited? Bell and Snyder are solid defensively and have put up incredible numbers in the AFL. Sounds like they could both be ready before June – or maybe I’m being an optimist.

And to think, Andy called Stringfellow about Billy Wagner to close games…this could be a team next season. If the starters figure it out as Matusz seemed to have in his last showing in New York, this could be a solid, young, and talented team.

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 17, 2009 7:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ah the optimism of the off season

I love it!

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 17, 2009 7:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just heard on the radio

The Washington Monument in Mount Vernon is being lit Dec 3rd and Nick Markakis will be the celebrity lighter. Last time I went it was Duff from Ace of Cakes. Markakis is way better.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 17, 2009 7:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I got to meet Duff last week at a book signing

Sadly, he was wearing a PHN hat.

I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/

by BaltimoreSportsFan on Nov 17, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

douche!

by O'sFan21 on Nov 17, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

NO THANK YOU to Nick Johnson

I like the low-risk high-return thing but Johnson will command more money than he is worth this offseason for his average of 100 games/year.

by punkrawka on Nov 17, 2009 7:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Un chigo de dinero

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Nov 17, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ZOMG WOW GUYS

that picture looks like matt wieters! except it isn’t him! lololozlzolzlzlzololz

/snark

by twistedlogic on Nov 17, 2009 9:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

actually it looks nothing like him

maybe you need new glasses

by PhilR8 on Nov 17, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the

tough talk by Trembley. Gets me all hot and bothered for 75 wins.

When you're born into the human race you're given a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you're given a front row seat. And some of us have notepads.-George Carlin

by Afghanistan Steve on Nov 17, 2009 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bell

hit a 3 run bomb yesterday. Is hitting .329/.411/.519. Hopefully that ability to play well in November comes in handy in the future. I was stoked to hear about his defensive improvements and how he’s lost weight and gained muscle.

Brandon Snyder: .354/.456/.600. Yes please.

Also, Adam Loewen: .203/.297/.266. Think he’ll be back in the bigs by the time he’s 30?

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Further evidence

that throwing money at the likes of Dan Uggla and Nick Johnson just doesn’t seem necessary. Let the prospects have 2010 to develop before we look elsewhere.

There are a few scenarios that I think we could see in 2010, all which begin with the OF but affect the necessity of signing a corner IF:

1). Keep Luke Scott as our DH, play Nolan Reimold in LF, keep Felix Pie as the 4th OF.
2). Unload Scott, play Reimold in LF, keep Pie as the 4th OF.
3). Unload Scott, play Pie in LF, use Reimold as the DH.

Scenarios 1 & 3 would mean that the DH spot would be occupied and that a player such as Dan Uggla would no longer be necessary once Bell reaches the bigs.

Scenario 2 would mean that the DH spot would not have a “full time” occupant, and that a player such as Dan Uggla would still have a spot in the lineup once Bell reaches the bigs.

Personally, I favor scenario 2. I want Pie to get a shot at LF for a full season, which would allow Nolan to focus on hitting the shit out of the ball from the DH spot. I just don’t see signing another corner IF as necessary at this point.

by sickuvitall on Nov 17, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The kids still have to conquer AAA

So coming up in June is optimistic. Realistically, they won’t be productive until 2011, late 2010 at best. If the O’s don’t sign a corner infielder on a 1-2 year deal, we’re stuck with Wigginton and Aubrey, which will cause us to follow the Norfolk Tides obsessively again this year.

I like Pie in LF, Scott as trade bait or 1B/DH/LF, Reimold as DH/LF/1B.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So, any guesses on who wins the AL Cy this year?

I’m guessing Jeter will get it.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Obama

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 17, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And probably during spring training.

by kba26 on Nov 17, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

think it'll take that long?

by twistedlogic on Nov 17, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And Sarah Palin

will complain about not being allowed to talk after losing the award to Jeter.

"I would approve signing a pitcher that ate kitten tacos if he won 20 games a year." -BPinOK

by duck on Nov 17, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and then

she’ll bitch about someone running a photo that she posed for.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Nov 17, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

then

Borat posing as Peter Gammons will interview Palin about losing the award.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Nov 17, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW

[insert picture of Michael Scott with his mouth open, I couldn’t find a good one]

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Nick Johnson

Don’t muddy the waters by buying an older non-star player just to have a minor upgrade. Let Wiggy play 3rd until Bell is ready. Let Luke play 1st until Snyder is ready. If Bell and Snyder don’t pan out, then buy a really good free agent next year.

by BaltoBen on Nov 17, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's look at the first basemen available next year

The best ones: Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee.

Those guys aren’t exactly stars, and Nick Johnson is actually younger than both of them AND has a favorable wOBA record (but not nearly as much power). Nick Johnson will also be substantially cheaper. My point is that if you ignore the best free agent first baseman available on the free agent market this year, you are stuck with three options:

1) Lesser free agents

2) Ty Wigginton/Michael Aubrey/Luke Scott/Brandon Snyder

3) Trades

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pro Nick Johnson

He is made of glass, yes, which is a problem. And if he’s too expensive, that’s a problem. But he’s a good baseball player.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 17, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am also pro Nick Johnson.

If we’re going to sign stop-gaps, I’ll take the stop-gap that gets on base at a clip over .400, thanks.

Much better than signing an all-glove, no stick guy for relatively comparable money.

From the Land of Pleasant Living...

by OEutaw on Nov 17, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's no need to spend

The Os have a all-glove, no stick guy (some stick) in New Aubrey.

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 17, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth

because my boss is sick and there’s nothing to do this morning, here’s a comparison I just ran up between Nick Johnson and Carlos Pena, who are basically the same age.

In their careers, according to b-r, they average 101 and 103 runs created per 162 games, with the slight edge going to Pena. In 2009 Pena beat Johnson 95 to 85, which is not so unimportant, so one could infer that Johnson is fading faster than Pena (or you could not infer anything since Johnson got to play a lot of games in Miami).

Defensively, in their careers, Johnson is a better first baseman according to UZR, with his defensive difference more than making up for Pena’s offensive ability. This makes Nick Johnson – at least historically – a better baseball player than Carlos Pena, the biggest name of 2011 free agency among first basemen (IMO).

But yeah, Johnson sure is made of glass – but that will probably make him far cheaper (and riskier) than Pena.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Using 'Nick Johnson" and 'per 162 games' in the same sentence

is not recommended.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

touche

but you get my point.

I dug into this a while ago, and since 2005 Nick Johnson has played over 130 games every year except for when he broke his leg in a freak fielding accident….which is about what Pena has played since joining the Rays, and close to what Kevin Millar was giving the birds.

Frankly, I think his injury reputation is a little overplayed.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So he's not hurt that much except for when he's hurt?

You can’t just discount the leg injury, I’m sorry. Since 2005 the dude averages 110 games a year, no matter how he got himself hurt. And “since 2005” is a completely arbitrary cutoff since 2005 was his healthiest year and 2004 was one of his most injury-plagued. Factor in 2004 and the avg games/yr drops to 102… hence my “100 games” remark above.

by punkrawka on Nov 17, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I admit that I don't know much about NJ

He’s really an enigma when you look at his page of numbers. He’s good at getting on base, but not at scoring runs. He’s got some power, but doesn’t hit so many RBIs. He’s good when he’s healthy, but he’s got hammy issues which will slow him down. So, what are we talking about, $5M for 1 year? $8M? That would be my limit.

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

runs scored and rbi

are context dependent – and he’s been playing for the Nats, one of the worst run scoring teams of recent note.

As for the leg injury – yeah, I can discount it. If you get into a car accident and break your leg on the way home today (heaven forbid), we won’t suddenly start thinking that you’re a chronic risk to break your leg. It’s a freak thing.

In his career since 2002, which seems fair, outside of the leg injury (which I won’t concede to you or anyone else), Nick Johnson has averaged 118 games. 2004 was his worst season in this regard – and it was six years ago.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll discount the counting stats

But if someone breaks his leg, regardless of how they do it, chances are it’s not going to come back better and stronger. It might be 95%, it might be 70%.

When said person later starts having hamstring issues, I’m gonna put my money on a reduction in speed and other abilities which require the use of legs. I give him an extra dose of age regression.

Averaging his games played is bad statistics. He either plays 130 games, or he plays nowhere close to 130 games. It’s a crapshoot as to which you will get. BJOL is giving him the benefit of the doubt, and I might too, only after contract negotiations.

I’m not trying to drive the hate train, though. This is the year for the O’s to take flyers like this. So what sort of contract would you give him?

by CoachOfEarl on Nov 17, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But if someone breaks his leg, regardless of how they do it, chances are it’s not going to come back better and stronger. It might be 95%, it might be 70%.

Where is the medical support for this? A broken bone is nothing like a tendon or muscle problem. They break. They heal. When I compound fractured my leg as a teenager, I eventually was much stronger and more flexible in that leg—probably because of all the attention it got.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Nov 17, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Contracts?

I have no freaking clue, man. But in my gun-to-the-head honest opinion, he is the best option the Orioles have of getting a quality first baseman until at least 2012 (unless Brandon Snyder really, really turns it on).

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Trembley talking tough in November?!

What a turkey.

by Fred Sanford on Nov 17, 2009 1:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's nice to hear that Bergesen is in a running program.

In early October, he was still unable to run. Talk about a scary injury. I hope he is unfazed by it, he was easily my favorite rookie last year, except for Matt Wieters I suppose.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Nov 17, 2009 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He was my fave, even including Wieters.

I was watching the game when it happened and was utterly horrified. I was glad to hear there was no fracture, but the fact that he ended up being out for the rest of the season kept me worried. I really hope he doesn’t have too much trouble getting back to where he was; I don’t expect another ERA below 3.5, but it’d suck if he regressed a lot in 2010.

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Nov 17, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

News flash

Grienke wins AL Cy Young; Brotz13’s faith in humanity remains intact, pending the announcement of AL MVP.

"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson

by Brotz13 on Nov 17, 2009 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Twins look awesome

I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/

by BaltimoreSportsFan on Nov 17, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Orioles express interest in Smoltz

From Robothal.

The Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that have expressed preliminary interest in free-agent right-hander John Smoltz, according to a major-league source.

Smoltz, 42, is open to starting or relieving, and some teams have inquired about him as a closer, the source said. The Astros, Rangers and Orioles also have shown interest in the 22-year veteran.

I’m sure Andy is just checking in with Smoltz out of due diligence. I’m not sure how serious Andy is about Smoltz. But he would be a good guy to have on an incentive-laden, one year deal.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Nov 17, 2009 5:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I saw that and assumed

…Andy’s looking at him as a closer. It seems like the Orioles are aiming at bringing a free agent closer, which I’m sort of bearish on.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 17, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m thinking Andy sees him sort of like Hendrickson or Koji last year. He could make some starts if needed, but then slide into the bullpen if the young guys step up.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Nov 17, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No No NO

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 17, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about Smoltz specifically...

…but incentive-laden, one-year deals seem like exactly what the Orioles need to try to target this year. We aren’t in a position to waste money or give up prospects, but we can afford to spend if we get results, and that’s exactly what focusing on incentives usually provides. If a guy does well, then we can pay him more, and if that’s enough to get us some higher-quality players, great. Sure, the top-tier guys are probably going to insist on guaranteed money, but the incentive-laden stuff is going to help insure that we pay for is we get.

…And yeah, when I say “we” and “us”, I mean MacPhail and company. You know what I mean.

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Nov 18, 2009 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No one is in a position to waste money, but...

…the Orioles shouldn’t be in a situation of needed to save money. We don’t have a single bad contract, and we’ve got tens of millions to spend to match last year’s relatively low payroll. Obviously, we should spend our money wisely. But is this a wise way to spend our money?

Well, it depends. If we see him as a potential starter who might be league average, then yes. If we’re trying to sign him as a closer, I’m less certain. There are places where incentive-laden one year deals make sense, and there are places that they don’t, and places where they don’t are where you can’t afford for them to go wrong. Relievers are fungible to a degree, but we had the worst bullpen in baseball last season, and we need to make a move that will help us resolve that. I’m not adverse to mainly just throwing a bunch of options at the problem, but I’d like us to have one sure thing in the pen as well. One year incentive deals have the downside of only maybe paying off, and we need to make some kind of addition where even if it doesn’t make a huge difference, we have some certainty.

by James F on Nov 18, 2009 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, thinking about it more, you're probably right.

I need to remember that nobody who’s very likely to be somewhere between good and outstanding is going to take a one-year incentive-laden deal. We have the money now, so I guess that ideally, we should sign a top-tier starter and a top-tier bullpen guy, and if it turns out we don’t need them once the kids come along (whether this year or later), we can trade them for more prospects or something.

I just worry that none of the top-tier guys are going to want to come even if we overpay, and we’ll get a couple of second- or third-tier guys who’ll then have down years and keep us from getting rid of them. If that happens, I’d rather have lost as little money as possible and not lose any draft picks. (And I’m not sure there are that many clearly reliable aces on the free agent market, either.)

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Nov 18, 2009 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the corners and fa

get beltre a 2 year deal at 3rd his numbers at th yrd will be great get johnson a 2 yr deal at 1st pick up 2 mid-level pitchers arroyo-harang-lowe-or vazquez via trade and signe a closer i am not sold at all on bell snyder or aubrey

by chuckthefan on Nov 17, 2009 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is the second post of the day

without a single punctuation or capitalized letter!

by O'sFan21 on Nov 17, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What are you, the grammar police?

Get off my back. I’m going to Steve’s. Where’s my motorcycle helmet? Can you pack me a dinner?

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 17, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

grammar camp for you, kiddo!

you do realize that punctuation has not gone out of style, right?

by twistedlogic on Nov 17, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and by you, i mean the original poster

sorry doc. you always seem to reply to those grammar ones!

by twistedlogic on Nov 17, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to be the grammar police

I’m editing elementary and middle school English books for Korean students.

…this is what I’ve become.

Kill me now.

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 17, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No one cares who you're sold on.

And giving Johnson a two year deal is throwing money down an injury-riddled hole.

"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year

by getxstoked on Nov 17, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs