Project Prospect report on Josh Bell
by James F on Nov 17, 2009 9:50 PM EST
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PrintThe guys over at [Project Prospect http://www.projectprospect.com/] are somewhat controversial among prospect bloggers, but are at least usually pretty interesting. In their firsthand AFL report, they mention some of the prospects who stood out to them, and guess who topped their list?
Most Impressive
Josh Bell has gained a lot of followers this year because of his bat. And while he has gotten some good marks for his defense, I wanted to see it for myself. The verdict: it's exceptional. Bell demonstrated an impressive arm as well as good footwork and agilily. I've seen him make plays to his right, effectively charge balls, and flash soft hands. I'm a big believer in Bell's bat, glove and understanding of the game -- interview coming soon.
At the time of the trade, the two major concerns about Bell were his glove and his batting against lefties. Now, it seems we may be looking at a plus defensive third baseman, and while AFL stats don't mean much, he's also clobbering left-handed pitching there.
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Wow
I don’t know anything about those guys, but I do love to hear that kind of information.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
if this kid pans out
well, damn. I mean, an above average everyday 3B for a lefty set-up man. It’s unheard of.
I'm just sorry...
…we couldn’t persuade them to trade Carlos Santana for Melvin Mora instead of Casey Blake.
Ned Colletti has given up more top prospects in trades for marginal players than any other GM. Although you got to hand it to the Dodgers scouting that they seem to have so many top prospects every year. They have some more good ones in the pipeline too – especially Devaris Gordon.
Well, Larry Anderson was right handed
But I’ll be happy if Bell comes anywhere close to being similar to the guy the Astros got in that deal!
Librarians are hiding something
I really hope all this hype doesn't end up disappointing me (us).
The hype surrounding Wieters was so absurd that we all knew he couldn’t live up to it his rookie year (not to say I was disappointed by him — far from it). There was almost no hype around Reimold or Bergesen, and they surpassed all expectations their rookie years. The hype around Bell seems to be growing all the time but staying reasonable enough that we can hope that, yes, he will be that good, so if he doesn’t pan out, it’s going to suck. And it’ll be that much worse given the giant hole we currently have at 3B. I really, really, really hope he ends up an above-average 3B in the long term.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
I don't know how badly it will suck
It sucked hard when Loewen was a bust, because we had no one to replace him. The positive part about the plan that it seems that the Orioles are putting in place is that if Bell doesn’t pan out, we have Waring behind him (and Snyder was getting starts at third for Norfolk down the stretch too). Now, we don’t have the depth that I’d like to see (yet) or like we have at some other positions. But look at what is going on in Tampa Bay. They were able to trade Kazmir and plug Wade Davis right into the rotation. They have Desmond Jennings ready for the majors to replace Crawford when his contract is up or Upton if he doesn’t figure it out with the bat. They have Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac if Zobrist or Bartlett doesn’t repeat last year’s performance. And then if it turns out they have a surplus of prospects, they can turn a Delmon Young into a Matt Garza. With the money advantage we have over Tampa, we ought to be able to outdo them at this model.
I’ve gotten excited about Bell also, and I really hope he is as good as he appears to be right now. Good plate discipline, power, and great defense at third for 6-7 seasons at a low cost is a fantastic addition to our core even if he never hits lefties well. And on a non-baseball related note, it would be great to have another African-American star to go with Jones in one of the more racially mixed cities in America. From the interviews I’ve read, he also sounds like a really bright, decent kid, and who doesn’t want to see them succeed too? But I’m also a realist. Part of why there was so little hype around Reimold and Bergesen was because they didn’t deserve it, and their success over part of one major league season doesn’t mean that they will repeat it. How many rookies of the year went on to do nothing more with their career? How many times have players who missed over a month of their rookie years with injury gone on to have injury problems for the rest of their careers (and yes, I know Bergesen’s injury was something of a freak accident, but so it goes)? Reimold has the better odds; he was a second round pick and a legit prospect all along, just one who was injury prone and hadn’t excelled too much when healthy, but the raw power and batting eye and outfield arm were always there. Bergesen, on the other hand, probably has the upside of Carlos Silva or Nick Blackburn, who were both useful pitchers who have had nice seasons, but who like Bergesen are unlikely to consistently perform as a front-of-rotation starters (even if Silva gets paid like one). Bell has the chance to be much more than either of Bergesen or Reimold are likely to be, and that is why the hype is bigger, and why I’m ok with it.
by James F on Nov 18, 2009 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For the record, I’ve only really gotten back into baseball for the last year or thereabouts, so I can’t say I suffered as much as most people on here from 2002-2008; I’m blissfully free of disappointment over Loewen (not to mention probably dozens of other, lesser busts).
Snyder and Waring seem like they might be decent options if we didn’t desperately need a legit power bat at one (preferably both) of the corners, but from what I’ve read, most people seem to think they don’t seem to have that kind of potential. I don’t quite see our system as having the level of depth that Tampa Bay does, either. I think it can certainly get that good, and maybe it will be that good in a couple of years, but I don’t think it’s there yet.
I tend to try to avoid getting into hype about things too much, but I’m having trouble avoiding it with Bell for whatever reason — maybe again because this is the first hyped guy I’ve been able to keep track of since the O’s got him. I’m not saying I think Bergy or Reimold deserved more hype based on their performances; that’s obviously backwards thinking. I just mean that it’s a lot easier to deal with a guy who projects as a #5 starter pitching like a #2 than it would be having a third baseman who projects as above-average end up more like, I dunno, Brandon Inge.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
Here is an instant remedy
to temper your excitement.
Q. Who was the last legitimate 3b prospect in the O’s system?
Hint #1: Like Bell, he tore up AA pitching
Hint #2: Like Bell, his shape has been described as ‘pear’
Hint #3: Like Bell, his ass has been described as ‘fat’
yoiks! I recant.
The comparison is stricken from the record.
Josh Bell has awesome rock star tatoos, Leo Gomez had gigantic nerd glasses.
I would say Ryan Minor
But his ass never was described as fat. Has there been another 3B prospect who has tore up AA pitching since him? Do you mean AA Bowie or any AA team?
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I realized that I was forgetting ryan minor, just as i had posted the comment
as you can see, I was going a little farther back but not so far back as craig worthington
I was wondering
about this the other day, I am 25, and when Ryan Minor was a big prospect, I was a huge fan…but perhaps more blinded by hometeam loyalty than I am today…less inclined to look critically at our prospects.
I know that WE said Minor was going to be something…but did anyone else?
He was 24 before he got any at bats in the bigs, he was 25 when he got 124 at bats…
I should look up my old Baseball Prospectus annual and see what they had to say about him, but I sort of think this may have just been a hometown bias thing.
by ItsBenFeldman on Nov 18, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
In 1998, Baseball America named him the 35th best prospect (scroll down on the link). He was a good prospect rather than some hometown bias thing.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
isn’t Ryan Minor also forever in O’s lore due to a certain trivia question – what player replaced Cal Ripken in the starting lineup (at 3B), thus ending Cal’s ironman streak?
I prefer to think of him
as Delmarva’s hitting coach, where he’s actually doing a good job, from all reports I’ve read.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
thx for posting
It will be interesting to see how hits lefties next year. I am definitely encouraged by him doing that in the AFL, though obviously not much of a sample. But you have to think he’s facing better than average lefties.
And also, IIRC, he was voted as the best defensive 3B in the Southern League (i.e., before he got to Bowie from whatever the Dodger AA team is).
Librarians are hiding something
In response to Duck,
I prefer to think of him as a collegiate national champ along with Damon and Chip Glass (I loved me some Chip Glass in ’94)
http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-basebl/archive/94-national-champs.html
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
I prefer to think of him
as the guy picked after Mark Hendrickson in the 1996 NBA Draft
**some picks of note that year
- Allen Iverson, #5 Ray Allen, #13 Kobe Bryant, #15 Steve Nash, #31 Mark Hendrickson, #32 Ryan Minor
Ha...
I just remembered that GA Tech team and went down there lineup…Nomar, Payton, Varitek…
Oh yeah? Get you some Bucky Buckles and Chip Glass!
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
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