Why not Miguel Cabrera?
by yurizanow on Nov 25, 2009 11:32 AM EST
115 comments
I've seen some things that say the Tigers are trying to shop Miguel Cabrera. This raises the question of why don't the Orioles make a run for him? He's a great hitter, he fills a desperate need in the middle of their lineup and at first base that the Orioles aren't likely to be able to fill from within, he's only 26, and the Orioles probably have enough in their farm system to at least get the Tigers' attention. Hitters this good don't become available that often and this is one of the few times where the O's aren't going to be competing with the Yankees and the Red Sox at a disadvantage.
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I like the idea
If the Tigers would trade him for Arrieta, Synder, Avery, and Angle, i’d make the deal, but knowing the Tigers they would most likely want a package similar to Arrieta, Brittion/Erbe, Avery, and Hoes, which would not work for McPhail even if the Tigers did cover some of his salary
"I Can't Wait Until Tomorrow...'Cause I Get Better Looking Every Day" Joe Namath
I'd love Miggy Cabs
but yea… I just don’t know if it’s worth what we’d have to give up. I’d like to hear what it would take from the Tigers though.
I'm suire we'd have to part
with atleast Matusz/Tillman and Reimold from the major league leveI, in addition to some of our top prospects.
I don’t like the sound of that, and you can bet your ass that AM won’t be down for it. Sure, make an offer and feel it out, but I don’t think the deal would be right for us.
I was thinking about posting a fanpost about M. Cabrera
From what I’ve read on mlbtraderumors.com, the Tigers seem to be asking a lot. This creates the double whammy problem. Not only will we have to give up a lot of young good players, but then we’ll have to pay him a boatload of money. According to fangraphs, he has $126M left on his contract over 6 seasons. His estimated worth is $118 so he’ll (likely) be worth his contract. But we need to fill multiple positions in order to succeed so we simply can’t afford to give up 2-3 of our top young players. Despite his weight issues, I would like to have his contract straight up or only give up a couple of minor prospects. But Tigers won’t be open to that and Andy won’t be open to giving up his top prospects. So I think we can forget about Miggy.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Agreed
I’d gladly take on his contract, but I don’t think it’s worth trading our good prospects for.
As the Tigers get closer to the season
and start staring at those spreadsheets with salary numbers, I bet the price for Cabrera comes down.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
they're trying to get rid of Edwin Jackson
so they’ll save a chuck of money there assuming a team takes him.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Yeah the Tigers are getting rid of people all over the place
sooooo, yeah. I’ll be interested to see what happens.
Do you think even the Orioles' good prospects will be as good as him?
He’s a potential Hall of Famer, it’s not likely any of the O’s prospects are.
The issue is not whether they will be as good as he is
But whether in combination they will provide as much value for the money as he will. Totally different issues.
Do you think even the Orioles’ good prospects will be as good as him?
What O’sfan21 said AND whether the combo of prospects traded will provide as much value in terms of production. We could just be filling in one hole while creating three.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
What holes would be created by trading pitchers, for example?
The O’s have a ton of those and are going to need to get a first baseman from somewhere anyway. It seems like a team should think seriously about getting a player of Cabrera’s quality when it’s available. If the O’s are going to compete in their division, they’re going to need a Cabrera-caliber at some point anyway.
Well
if they have Cabrera and no pitching they’ll be pretty much exactly where they are right now. Oh right, except that they’ll be paying $20 M more per year.
They won't have "no pitching"
I doubt that the Tigers would require they send every single pitching prospect the O’s have in exchange. The Orioles are going to need to make a trade for somebody at some point because the solution for all their personnel problems isn’t going to come from their farm system. Cabrera is certainly better than any free agent that is available this year and will almost certainly be more valuable than anyone they give up.
As for the money, I don’t care. It’s not mine and Angelos can afford it. They’re going to need to spend that kind of money at some point regardless. Here is a guy who might be worth it.
Actually . . .
The O’s were 11th in offense and 14th in defense, so with Cabrera they would probably at least score more runs.
I doubt that the Tigers would require they send every single pitching prospect the O’s have in exchange.
Well, of course not. Why resort to these extreme arguments. They will require 2 very good prospects though. That could be a huge dent.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
So what exactly would adding one stud hitter do at $20 M per?
And if it costs 3 of our biggest prospects is that worth it?
Let's say they do want three guys
Realistically all three of them aren’t likely to turn out to be premier players. Maybe one is. That guy probably won’t be as good as Cabrera.
I would seriously consider the deal, you wouldn’t. That’s how it goes.
Realistically all three of them aren’t likely to turn out to be premier players. Maybe one is. That guy probably won’t be as good as Cabrera.
Prospects bust, no doubt. But you either you have to grow good pitchers or buy/trade them. And you HAVE to good pitching to win (whereas you don’t have to have one mega bat to win). If you trade away our top pitchers, where you suggest we get them? We can’t sign the top guys. You seem to think that good pitching is readily avaiable and we could easily get them else where if trade Tillman or Matusz.
I would seriously consider the deal, you wouldn’t. That’s how it goes.
Well, one argument is based in thinking about actual production value.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I am thinking about actual production value
Cabrera is a known commodity who is likely to produce.
Whatever pitching prospects the O’s would give up are unknowns who are much less likely to be valuable. I say go with the sure thing.
You can't say production in 2015 is a "sure thing"
and keep a straight face, for ANY player. Maybe Albert Pujols, but that’s about it.
If the risks are either "[insert top prospect here] produces at a league average level for a decent amount of time or Miggy maintaining superstar production through 2015, I’ll take the prospects being league average any day.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
He'll be 31 in 2015
That’s a pretty good bet, all things considered. I like the odds that he’ll be better at that point than any prospects the Orioles have right now.
He's not just spending his personal money on free agents.
It’s a business. They have a revenue stream and they have profits and they have a payroll. That $20 M/year is $20 M/year that will not be spent on any of the many other gaping holes in the Orioles (starting pitching, 3B assuming he’s playing first, relief pitching, a DH, etc. There’s not just an unlimited pot off money to spend. So, if you have 4 guys who MIGHT develop into players who are worth MUCH more than they are being paid (which is not difficult when they will be making almost nothing for the next 4 years) and you go to trade them for somebody making $20 M per year, it’s not necessarily a good business decision. I’m not saying they shouldn’t consider it, but if the cost is 3 or 4 of their higher ranked prospects and they want us to take his whole contract, I don’t think that’s in the best long term interests of the team.
The Orioles are fine financially
They have a really exploitative television contract at the expense of the Nationals, the regular money coming in from the MLB as part of their contract with Fox, and the money from their stadium, which can be pretty impressive when it’s full.
Angelos has been working this small-market act for awhile now, but it’s as phony as a three dollar bill. Their payroll is in the lower third of the Major Leagues. They can spend a little money and still be fine.
Sure they are fine
But that doesn’t mean they can just go trading all their prospects for guys making $20 M/year. The Yankees/Redsox/Dodgers they are very much not.
The “$20 mil” argument goes out the window when you consider a few things; 1) The O’s almost have $20 mil. coming off the books just this year with Baez, Walker, Huff, Mora, etc leaving. 2) Wasn’t it less than 5 years ago the O’s were nearing a $100 mil. payroll? and now we’re a third of that? 3) Didn’t they just last year offer Tex more than $20 mil. a year? i.e. Angelos has the money and thats not the problem. ….
I think the reason the O’s would drag their feet on this are two-fold. 1) PR issue (they like to be squeky clean). Cabrera’s off-field issues and weight problem are a slight prob. 2) The prospects required to obtain him. As some said above, will it be 3 top prospects? 1 top, with several fillers? etc.
But it’s not just the money – it’s the money COMBINED with the prospects. If Cabrera was available for just the money I’d be all for it, but if you’re giving up 3-4 prospects, taking on $20 M per year for 6 years is a lot to ask. We’re not talking about a free agent signing.
right, because all of the prospects given up are sure-fire things at the pro level…. Just like Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, OF McDonald, Sidney Ponson, Daniel Cabrera, Scott Moore, Jay Gibbons, Eli Whiteside, Larry Bigbie, Jorge Julio, etc, etc — all “top” minor league prospects of the O’s in just the past 5+ years or so who had minimal impact at the pro level. We could go back further and look at Ben McDonald, Ryan Minor, etc, etc.
Granted some of the names mentioned are not pitchers, but that just goes to show how many more pitchers flame out before the pros. ….(side note: the only pitching prospect the O’s may miss is John Maine)….
My larger point is this; the Tigers are not realistically going to ask for all of our big three as a return. If we could combine 1 (or maybe 2 from the second tier of pitchers) with Scott, Snyder then I don’t see what the problem is with giving up a prospect or two.
Did I say that?
But it’s incredibly easy for a prospect to provide great value since they aren’t being paid anything. A guy that’s being paid $20 M it’s pretty hard for him to provide value. So trading 4 guys who don’t make anything and have value both as prospects for your own organization and as trade chips in the market, for one guy making $20 M per year is not a no-brainer move financially.
Just an FYI – hardly any of those guys were ever at a prospect level that Arrieta is at.
now we're arguing the same point?
(besides not understanding your first paragraph, so please expand)
The names mentioned may have not been at the level of Arrieta or the other two expected to start for the O’s next year… but that’s my round-about point. Why hold on to guys like a Snyder or second-tier pitching prospect like Britton or a pitching prospect not expected to arrive for a couple years if we can put them together for a guy who will have an immediate impact on the club in the lineup and the win column now and for the next several years?
FYI – I thought your argument was about the prospects being given up since the post above my retort defiantly says, “But it’s not just the money – it’s the money COMBINED with the prospects”….
What don’t you get about the first paragraph? It’s much easier for a team to get it’s money’s worth when it’s paying a guy next to nothing (like all prospects make until arbitration) than it is paying a guy making $20 M per year.
And the reason not to unload those guys for somebody who can produce right now, is that if you don’t think you can compete right now there may be more value for them down the road – either as cheap good players for you or as trade chips for other good established players.
It very much is about both – it’s about taking on a large contract that, no matter how low our payroll is currently compared to the recent past, will imit our ability to sign other free agents (which don’t cost prospects) as well as giving up big chunks of our farm system to take on that salary. Why trade prospects for really expensive production when you can just buy really expensive production when we’re closer to competing?
I’d much rather have Adam Dunn for $8 M less per year and not part with ANY prospects, Cabrera for $8 M more than Dunn PLUS 3-4 prospects.
Cabrera is a known commodity who is likely to produce.
Whatever pitching prospects the O’s would give up are unknowns who are much less likely to be valuable. I say go with the sure thing.
1) Based on what research has established on minor league translations, we can predict the performances of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and etc. with some degree of accuracy (but obviously not as well as with guys with big league data). So to say these guys are unknowns flies in face of established research.
2) You want to trade away 2 potential building blocks of our rotation (or not more), then identify a way(s) to replace those blocks. Sensible ways. Simply saying, “Sign John Lackey” isn’t a sensible way.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I've been watching the Orioles about 25 years now
In that time they’ve produced three starting pitchers of consequence. Mike Boddicker, Mike Mussina, and (sorta) Erik Bedard. You guys are putting pretty much every guy in the Orioles farm system in the All-Star game right now. I’ll believe in their value when they demonstrate it in a big league context.
I’m suggesting its worth taking a look at a guy who will make an immediate difference and in all likelihood be better than any guy the Orioles have in their system now will ever be, regardless of position. It’s at least worth taking a look. Who knows, maybe MacPhail can get them to take more guys who have farther to go rather than the top-line guys. Long distance phone calls are quite affordable these days.
I see a potential Hall of Famer who is available
They need to get rid of him. Why isn’t it at least worth looking into?
Again...
where am I saying it’s not worth looking into? All I’m saying is that if the asking price is 3 or 4 of their best prospects it’s not a good long term decision in my opinion. I’d DEFINITELY be interesting though if the asking price is lower, or potentially i the asking price was the same but they were willing to eat a decent chunk of the remainder of his contract.
I think it's worth seeing if they can whittle it down by giving more long-term prospects
Rather than giving up Matusz or whomever, see if they’ll take a bunch of guys who are farther away from the big leagues.
Everyone knows the Tigers have to unload Cabrera and none of the big money teams are likely to interested. He might be a better deal than you think.
I don't know
that the Tigers HAVE to unload Cabrera, but sure if there’s a good deal on the table to get him for a bunch of more fringe prospects I’d be all for that. I’d be much less interested if more than one guy named Tillman, Matusz, Arrietta, Britton, Bell, etc is involved.
Rather than giving up Matusz or whomever, see if they’ll take a bunch of guys who are farther away from the big leagues.
The Tigers aren’t giving up Cabrera for some 19 year old in low A-Ball as the trade centerpiece.
Everyone knows the Tigers have to unload Cabrera
That simply isn’t true. The Tigers want to cut payroll but trading Cabrera is not the only way to do it. Edwin Jackson is much more likely to be dealt.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
You guys are putting pretty much every guy in the Orioles farm system in the All-Star game right now
WHAT? Where in the world did I say that?
It’s at least worth taking a look.
Oh yeah, that I agree I with. It’s worth investigating.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
your logic seems a bit off
I think we all agree that pitching prospects have a high failure rate. Doesn’t this mean we should be stockpiling more pitching prospects, not less?
Also, here’s a little comparison. I’m going to list WAR values (according to FanGraphs) of two players over 4 consecutive years.
Player 1: 6.7, 5.8, 2.9, 5.4. Total: 20.8
Player 2: 6.8, 4.7, 5.3, 2.3. Total: 19.1
Player 1 is Miguel Cabrera, 2006-2009. Player 2 is Miguel Tejada, 2004-2007 (when he was with us). Now I might be mistaken, but we weren’t a contending team, or even a respectable one, with Tejada in the lineup. What makes you believe having Cabrera would be any different? If anything, Tejada was better value because his contract was significantly cheaper.
I'm not saying Cabrera is the total solution
He’s part of it. When the Orioles signed Tejada and Lopez, they kind of sat on their hands afterwards a if they thought they didn’t have to do anything else to compete.
Right now the Orioles have more attractive playes to supplement Cabrera than they did when they had Tejada, plus I would assume they would continue trying to upgrade if they got him.
As for the pitchers, I don’t see the point in stockpiling pitchers as an end in itself if the O’s have an insufficient offense. I’m not suggesting that the Orioles part with the guys that they think are sure bets (even though there is no such thing), I’m just suggesting taking a look at what the Tigers want. Nothing bad will happen if the Orioles just give the Tigers a call.
When the Orioles signed Tejada and Lopez, they kind of sat on their hands afterwards a if they thought they didn’t have to do anything else to compete.
Tejada’s first season with the O’s was amazing. 140 something RBIs.
Right now the Orioles have more attractive playes to supplement Cabrera than they did when they had Tejada, .
Which would comprised if the O’s tradef for Cabrera.
plus I would assume they would continue trying to upgrade if they got him
And where would these players come from?
As for the pitchers, I don’t see the point in stockpiling pitchers as an end in itself if the O’s have an insufficient offense.
And if the O’s don’t have pitching, there’s no point in building in a great offense (see Texas Rangers).
I’m just suggesting taking a look at what the Tigers want.
I’m sure Andy will at least inquire.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
No team fills its personnel need exclusively through its own farm system. At some point every decent team has make a trade or sign a free agent.
Where will the Orioles offense come from if they don’t bring someone from the outside? Having all this great pitching (which almost certainly won’t turn out to be as great as everyone hopes) is useless if the Orioles don’t score runs. In a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, it’s not realistic to think a team will succeed without being able to put some runs on the board. I don’t know how the O’s will do that without bringing in an outside and I don’t know how they’ll do that without trading the one thing they have in surplus.
At some point every decent team has make a trade or sign a free agent.
Sure, the O’s have traded Bedard, Tejada, and Sherrill.
Where will the Orioles offense come from if they don’t bring someone from the outside?
Grow the arms, buy the bats. Acquiring good bats is a lot easier than acquiring good arms.
I don’t know how the O’s will do that without bringing in an outside
Well, we traded for Jones. We have Wieters. Markakis will bounce back. We already have a strong outfield. We need corner IFs. Out of all position players, good corner IF are the easiest to acquire. No reason to burn are best prospects to a 1B/DH type. Look, I like Cabrera. He’s a great bat. But he doesn’t play a premium position and his defense is pretty average (and likely to regress). But as I keep asking, how do you propose to fill the rotation if you trade away 2/5th of it.
GROW THE ARMS, BUY THE BATS!!!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
What I mean is that the Orioles are going to have to bring in some offense from the outside. They’re going to have to trade or sign some bats. The guys on the Orioles aren’t going to score enough runs to compete in the AL East. They’re going to be in a position where they’re trading field goals for touchdowns and that won’t cut it.
The Orioles will almost always loose out to other teams when it comes to top-flight free agents, but right now they’re in a favorable position to trade for someone decent.
I’m not saying Cabrera is a must-have, but it’s worth checking out. I have this feeling you wouldn’t have made the deal for Frank Robinson because he was 30 years old and you can never have enough good pitching.
Lots of teams do well with only 3/5ths of a pitching staff (see this year’s Yankees) and if the Orioles pitching prospects are as deep as everyone says, they can probably afford to lose one or two of them. Also, it might be that the Tigers want something other than a bunch of pitchers. They have a lot of those themselves. There is literally only one way to find out.
What I mean is that the Orioles are going to have to bring in some offense from the outside.
Sure. I agree with that. Let’s trade Luke Scott for some bats.
right now they’re in a favorable position to trade for someone decent.
They’re not in a favorable (or unfavorable) position. They have an equal opportunity like every other team.
I have this feeling you wouldn’t have made the deal for Frank Robinson because he was 30 years old and you can never have enough good pitching.
Not if it means losing Jim Palmer and MIke Flanagan.
the Orioles pitching prospects are as deep as everyone says, they can probably afford to lose one or two of them.
Depends on which two.
There is literally only one way to find out.
I have no idea why you think Andy won’t at least inquire about Cabrera’s price. I assure you that Andy has heard that Cabrera is available and is aware of the Tiger’s general trade parameters.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Well, I thought we were talking hypotheticals. In that case, I would rather have Jim Palmer and Mike Flanagan than Eddie Murray.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Of course, the question is how you get both. You can’t get there by trading your potential Palmers or Flanagans when you can’t sign a Palmer or a Flanagan. Trading isn’t much easier since teams tend to be very protective of their good pitching prospects. It’s easier to sign or trade for a bat.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
john Maine
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
I'd happily consider the deal
But it would have to be pretty damn attractive to give up 2-3 big prospects AND take on $20+ million per year in payroll.
The O’s have a ton of those and are going to need to get a first baseman from somewhere anyway.
GOOD pitching! That’s the hole that’s created.
If the O’s are going to compete in their division, they’re going to need a Cabrera-caliber at some point anyway.
You don’t need a mega-star position player to compete. The Rays proved it last year. The Angels proved it this year.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
If the O’s are going to compete in their division, they’re going to need a Cabrera-caliber at some point anyway.
Besides, Wieters could very well be a mega-star soon.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
We're not paying for what he already did
We’re paying in prospects what we hope he produces for the balance of his contract. We’d be paying $126M AND giving up a lot of the young pitching we need to contend.
That said, if the O’s offer t pay the balance of the contract, I’d have to think the cost in prospects would come down.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
Also, Cabrera has 5 seasons left not 6. My bad.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Because he's a drunk
and abusive, so fuck him.
"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year
by getxstoked on Nov 25, 2009 9:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I second this.
I know a lot of people think everything off the field is overrated, but we don’t need a certifiable douchebag being a bad clubhouse influence, especially when we’ve got a lot of young guys with the right sort of attitude.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
well...
I mean the Yankees won the WS, and every one of them is a douche. So 1 couldnt be all that bad, right?
They're less drunk, abusive douches
and more smug, superior douches who sleep on piles of money.
"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year
I think
That maybe we need to be careful making generalizations about a person’s character off the field based on tiny little snipits that the media reports on. Do you really know ANYTHING about how much he drinks or whether he’s abusive regularly? Or do you just know the one or two instances that have been reported on?
One incident is enough for me to not want him on my team
He and Brett Myers can go hang out together somewhere.
"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year
Ok that's fine.
But to say that he’s a drunk abusive guy when you really don’t know if that’s the case at all seems a little inappropriate. He wasn’t even charged with anything and if anything he was the one who was abused (visible scratches on his face). This is not even close to the same situation as Brett Myers punching his wife in the face and dragging her by her ponytail in front of multiple witnesses.
Cabrera is a good answer to the O's needs
He is a relatively young (26?) power hitting 1B who would be signed for five years. He hits well and for power. He plays a position we need. He can hit 40 HRs every year. He could fill the cleanup position for years. So he has had a less than stellar reputation. So what? He does not have a “clubhouse poison” reputation. The rest is crap.
Trade Snyder and a top notch pitching prospect like Arrieta. Throw in another pitcher. Pay the man for his production and lets get on with it. The Orioles have more pitching prospects than they can need at this point. So why not?
I don't agree.
The O’s have 4 starters now in Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz and Guthrie. They have a bunch of “possibles” in Patton, Arrieta, Britton, Hernandez, Koji, Berken, Hobgood, etc., etc., etc. Lots of young guys that could possibly step up like Bergesen did last year.
There is no reason not to trade a couple of those “possibles” for a certifiable masher like Cabrera since we don’t have a 1B with 40 HR power in the system. If they got Cabrera, they don’t need Snyder. Luke Scott has always mashed the Tigers. Soooo… trade Snyder, Scott and one or two of those “possible” future starters for Cabrera. Personally, I would prefer not to trade Arrieta or Britton, but if the Tigers insisted, I would still do it.
by fuddnelson on Nov 30, 2009 8:58 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with...
…fuddnelson. Who are all these megaprospects that are being suggested? Outside of Matusz and Tillman, I think we’re falling prey to extreme ‘homerism’. If a player the caliber of Cabrera could be obtained for a package such as:
1. Pie or Scott
2. Snyder
3. Arrieta
4. Erbe
…you have to do it. All of those players have warts. If the Tigers substitute in Britton for either Snyder or Erbe, then do it. That makes one of the top lineups in MLB without significantly altering the O’s pitching landscape in the near run. Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie, FREE AGENT make a servicable rotation in 2010 with a lineup of:
Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Cabrera
Wieters
Reimold
Scott/Pie
Wigginton
Izturis
by sabertooth5185 on Nov 30, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Dude
If we’re giving up any combo of those 4 the Tigers better damn well be eating some of his contract. You realize there’s still a shitload left on that right???
The Tigers...
…aren’t going to eat contract on a potential HoF player. The biggest thing the O’s have in their favor right now is available cash. Why not spend it on a legitimate difference maker to anchor the strong young core? Plus…all that money would be spent on a player just entering his traditional ‘prime’ years.
Also…that combination of four players really isn’t that valuable. You’d be getting an All-Star cleanup hitter for:
a) Pie or Scott – Only one of these guys would get regular ab’s anyway.
b) Snyder – adding Cabrera would reduce his value to the O’s to zero. He’s likely not better than a marginal starter anyway.
c) Arrieta – there’s value here, but he’s only the O’s third best SP prospect. Plus, he’s older than both Tillman and Matusz.
d) Erbe – a right-handed relief pitcher. Big deal.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 1, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
I think Scott is going to be gone anyway
He is VERY streaky, and the Orioles have much better OFers, so he is pretty much a DH on this team. He has value because he can hit, hit for power and his salary isn’t big. So trade Scott to a team that needs a controllable power hitter. He doesn’t fit the O’s needs.
Snyder is not and will not be a stellar fielding 1B and will never hit 40 HRs. He is a doubles hitter with occasional HR power. The Orioles need a big time HR hitter to hit cleanup and play 1B. Cabrera is young and signed for several years. He isn’t cheap, but the Orioles need to pay for that big bat. Everyone else does. Cabrera is worth it and the O’s have the money.
Hobgood cannot be traded in the same year he was drafted.
Erbe or Arrieta is ok. I wouldn’t give both. Maybe Arrieta and Hernandez.
The whole point
Is that yes the O’s need a big time HR hitter, but why not just buy him on the free agent market next year (can you say Adam Dunn) and not part with any of their prospects
I'd only do it...
…if the player in question is remarkably better than Dunn, which Cabrera is. Cabrera is also 4 years younger than Dunn.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 1, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Remarkably better?
Cabrera OPS+ of 140 (2009 OPS+ of 142)
Dunn OPS+ of 132 (2009 OPS+ of 144)
Is 8 points of OPS+ worth 3-4 prospects and at least an additional 5-8 M/year???
Here is what...
…you get for that additional investment:
1. You get Cabrera now, instead of waiting an additional year.
2. Certainty. If you have the chance at Cabrera and don’t pull the trigger, there is no guarantee that you get Dunn on the free agent market next offseason. In fact, the odds would be against the O’s retaining his services.
3. The marginally better offense offered by Cabrera (as you pointed out above).
4. Better defense at 1B. Cabrera is no GG’er, but Dunn is a butcher at any position.
5. Youth. Dunn is nearly at the end of the traditional ‘prime’ window, while Cabrera is just reaching the beginning of his. It’s not written in stone of course, but history suggests that Cabrera’s offensive numbers will likely stay where they are or increase, while Dunn is likely due to see his numbers start to decline a bit.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 1, 2009 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
1) you get Cabrera now for $20 M per year.
2) they have no worse of a shot than anybody else – the Nats signed him for christ sake
3)is the marginally better offense (prior to last year) worth $8 M per year and 3-4 prospects?
4) we have that thing called the DH over here, so I really don’t care about either of their gloves.
5) Cabrera is 4 years younger than him and he has 6 years left on his contract, so yeah we’d have him for a few of the years that he’s younger than Dunn, but we’d be paying $20 M per year and be locked in for years when he’s older than Dunn.
Responses...
1) Right…so what? The O’s can afford it and it’s not an outrageous price for an elite player anymore.
2) Having no worse a shot than anyone else doesn’t present very good odds.
3) The marginally better offense, which is likely to widen, plus the other factors I mentioned, combine to make him worth an additional $8M per year + the prospects in the context of what the O’s need.
4) You can only play one DH at a time, so improving defense is still important.
5) Cabrera will be only 32 when his current contract ends. I think that represents an acceptable risk.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 2, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
1) again if it was just the money I’d have no issue, but the money combined with the prospects is an issue. I prefer signing free agents…like Adam Dunn
2) if they want him they will sign him
3) why is it likely to widen? Cabrera is now 3 season’s removed from his best years and Dunn just had his best year.
4)right you can play one DH at a time – Dunn
5) 32 and fat is not the same as normal 32
hahahahah
32 and fat is not the same as normal 32
by twistedlogic on Dec 4, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
My issue is not with Pie or Scott
It’s with the 3 young prospects after him. To say that Snyder’s value would drop to zero if the O’s acquired Cabrera is ridiculous – he could easily be shopped for other trades after that. There’s no such thing as a prospect with zero value no matter how roadblocked he is.
Arrieta – as far as him being the O’s 3rd best starting prospect – so what? On lots of teams he would be the best prospect. The fact that he’s the O’s third best prospect has NO impact on his value in the market.
Erbe – where are you seeing projections as a RHP reliever?
I still think...
….you’re overvaluing O’s prospects. Snyder is not a hot commodity in the MLB market. He’s a corner infielder (read: 1B) that doesn’t have a lot of raw power. He’s a throw-in in a trade, not a cornerpiece.
My point on Arrieta being the third best SP prospect is that the O’s would be getting a marquis player without having to use Tillman or Matusz as the key player in the package. The O’s can afford to give up Arrieta for the right player.
As for Erbe – I think BA has been predicting a move to the bullpen since shortly after he was drafted based on his outstanding fastball, but little else in his repertoire. In the bullpen, he would only have to refine one offspeed pitch to be highly effective.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 1, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
I never said
that Snyder is a hot commodity, just that his value doesn’t drop to zero just because you acquire somebody at his position.
I don’t know think that just because the O’s have Tillmlan/Matusz that they can “afford” to give up Arrieta.
Erbe – I guess that’s a possibility, but he’s been dominating as a starter so far.
I'm not above...
…compromise. Let’s just say that Snyder’s value to the O’s would be greatly diminished.
They can’t afford to just throw Arrieta away…that’s not my point. They can afford to move him in a deal that makes them significantly better at a different position.
Erbe was really good this year. No doubt. Prior to 2009, he certainly didn’t dominate as a starter. In fact, for a while he was just brutal. Nobody ever questioned his stuff, though…that’s why I think the bullpen conversations started.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 1, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Again
His value to the O’s as a future member of their team would be diminished, but his value on the market would not be impacted even a little bit.
And my contention...
…is that he doesn’t have very much value on the market.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 2, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
Nobody said Snyder was worthless
Nor that his trade value would become zero. Snyder has value to the Orioles right now because they need a 1B. If we traded for Cabrera, we would not be in need of a 1B, so why not make Snyder part of that deal? Snyder can play 1B and a little 3B. Neither very well. He is a converted C. His value would not drop to zero, but would certainly be reduced to the Orioles. Trade him. The Orioles don’t need a doubles hitting 1B.
Ummm
b) Snyder – adding Cabrera would reduce his value to the O’s to zero. He’s likely not better than a marginal starter anyway.
Not sure where you saw me say that anybody said he was worthless, what I said was that the above statement was not true.
You're playing...
…a game of semantics instead of substance.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 2, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
sorry O’sFan, but money is not the issue. If that’s your best counter-argument, your argumnet becomes null and void. Sure he’s owed a lot but we got a payroll closer to the Marlins than the Yankees. Just five years ago we were a top team salary team – now we’re a bottom. Angelos has money (and is willing to spend it, ala Tex last summer).
You're not paying enough attention.
My counter-argument is NOT money. It’s money PLUS prospects. As I’ve said multiple times, if he were available as a free agent for his current contract I’d be all for snapping him up immediately and maybe even overpaying to land him. But to trade 4 prospects for him (including a top pitching prospect) that becomes an awfully expensive acquisition.
If a player the caliber of Cabrera could be obtained for a package such as:
1. Pie or Scott
2. Snyder
3. Arrieta
4. Erbe
…you have to do it.
Take out Arrieta and replace him with Britton, I’d do that trade.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
in a heart beat… i made a comment along these lines waaay above, but how does giving that up hurt our farm system exactly? It’s not like we have a dirth of pitching prospects and trading one of the top ones away will sink the franchise. We have 3 top prospects that will be in the pros next year, and 5 or so top pitching prospects 2, or so, years away. Whats the problem?
how does giving that up hurt our farm system exactly?
Well, Britton and Erbe are good prospects. Losing good prospects hurts a farm systems right? But you’re going to have to give up something valuable for a Cabrera even with his huge contract. Scott is old. He’s expendable. Snyder has serious questions marks about his ability to hit as a regular. Erbe and Britton good prospects. It would suck to lose them, but I could live with that in order to get Cabrera. I mostly want to hold on to Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
I would do it
but I would only be willing to give up something like a package of one or two of Waring, Snyder, and Luuke, and a pitching prospect like Hobgood. And that’s a lot to give up to take on a $150M contract for a drunk wifebeater. Matusz, Erbe, Bell, Reimold, Jones, Pie, etc. are off limits.
I think he can be got cheap
If someone would take his contract, If the Tigers are at firesale mode, then getting 20M a year for 8 years off the books, for some balls would be a good idea.
Several posters have disparaged Cabrera's character.
I know others have questioned whether he has a weight or conditioning problem. Is this guy a head case like Ponson? If he drinks some, I don’t really care. Lots of good ballplayers do. I remember a story about him out carousing with the opposing team late this past year. That’s poor judgement on his part, but the other guys were there, too. They were’nt criticized. Then there is the spousal abuse rumor. I’ve never seen a police report or photos of a roughed up wife. What’s that all about? He showed up with scratches on his face at one point. How does that make him a wife beater? Maybe I just haven’t heard the pertinent reports.
Agreed.
I think the character issues are probably exagerated. Although isn’t he a santeria or something weird??
I thought so too
mostly because of the animal sacrifices. Then I thought about it and realized Luke Scott and Jamie Walker are serious christians who like to hunt. When it comes down to it, they are all praying and killing animals. I dont necessarily approve of any of it, but when I think about it, its all basically the same.
Cabrera is the kind of guy that can send us from mediocre to contending
Give them:
Scott
Pie
Snyder
Arrieta
Erbe/Gamboa
We really aren’t losing that much and gaining the kind of bat you dream about. Our payroll certainly has room for him.
I don't want to trade Arrieta, either
but if it means getting a difference maker like Cabrera…………. I tend to agree with substituting Bergesen, instead. I also think that’s too much to give up AND assume his salary. I would suggest :
Scott
Snyder
Bergesen
Erbe/Gamboa
or, how about that pitcher we got from Detroit for Huff. Justinson or something like that?
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