Rumor: O's inquire about Kevin Millwood

by Stacey on Nov 30, 2009 10:50 PM EST in News & Rumors Comment 22 comments

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Orioles have contacted the Texas Rangers about pitcher Kevin Millwood.

The Orioles have recently asked the Rangers about the availability of right-handed starter Kevin Millwood, major league sources told FOXSports.com.

The talks between the clubs are not serious, one source said. However, Millwood is one of a number of options that the Orioles are pursuing.

Ok, so talks are not serious. He's one of a number of options. But NO. Just NO. I refuse to accept Kevin Millwood as an option.

First of all, he would cost more than money. I have no idea what kind of player(s) the O's would have to give up for Kevin Millwood, but unless it's a scrub, then no.

Kevin Millwood is not good at baseball. He had a good year last year. Well, good results-wise. But he wasn't that great. His K/BB in 2009 was 1.73 and FIP was 4.80, quite a bit higher than his 3.67 ERA. And he was crap in the last two months of the season, posting a 5.02 ERA as batters OPS'd .820 against him.

But forget about his 2009. Look at his stats since he signed with the Rangers.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	ERA	GS	IP	HR	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2006	31	TEX	AL	4.52	34	215.0	23	102	1.307	9.5	1.0	2.2	6.6	2.96
2007	32	TEX	AL	5.16	31	172.2	19	88	1.622	11.1	1.0	3.5	6.4	1.84
2008	33	TEX	AL	5.07	29	168.2	18	88	1.595	11.7	1.0	2.6	6.7	2.55
2009	34	TEX	AL	3.67	31	198.2	26	127	1.339	8.8	1.2	3.2	5.6	1.73

That's his last four years with Texas. Prior to that he spent one year with Cleveland and before that he was an NL guy. In addition to costing the Orioles whatever player they have to give up, Millwood is also going to make $12M in 2010. That would make him the highest paid Oriole. Surely the Orioles could find a better way to spend $12 million. I'm certain of it.

I know the Orioles want a veteran starter. I understand their thinking, even. But if they want to find a starting pitcher who will probably be equal to Millwood in production and who won't cost $12M and a prospect, all they need to do is consult the free agent tracker. Might I suggest Joel Pineiro?

The Orioles do not need a 35 year old substandard starting pitcher in their 2010 rotation. Seriously, Mr. MacPhail, just say no to Kevin Millwood.

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Millwood-eque, yes. Millwood, no.

The thing is, I like that he’s only signed for a year off an extension. If the Os picked up a guy like that, on a one-year deal, at least they wouldn’t have to deal with him after the season. He’d free up space at the end of the season for Arrieta, Britton, Patton, etc. or he could be traded.

In and of that, I’m down with someone in the Millwood vein, contractually. It should also be noted that he pitched in Arlington, an extreme hitters park; which isn’t an excuse as much as the reality of inflated ERAs.

I’d have to agree about the concerns of who they’d have to fork over as well.

by Dr Orpheus on Nov 30, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions

I would imagine

what he’d gain back by leaving Arlington he’d lose again by moving to the AL East.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 30, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

home away splits in 2009

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=millwke01&year=2009&t=p#hmvis

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 30, 2009 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

who they'd have to fork over?

I think fringe hitter + Cla Meredith / Matt Albers would be enough. not sure exactly which hitter gets it done – could be Wigginton or Aubrey. oh, and the Rangers would probably eat some of his salary, too.

this is primarily a salary dump for the Rangers, who think they need hitting. they could use an outfielder and a 1B – getting rid of Millwood (even eating some of his salary) leaves plenty of space to sign, say, Jermaine Dye to play 1B and Marlon Byrd as an OF.

by ugen64 on Dec 1, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions

The Rangers aren't interested in Dye

They’re not going to resign Byrd. And they have a 1B prospect in Justin Smoak at Triple-A Oklahoma City

And yes. This team did have a major power outage last season. We DO need a bat, in fact

by oc on Dec 2, 2009 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with the one-year rental

is that it doesn’t really help the Orioles at all. Let’s say we get someone like Millwood for 7 million dollars for just 2010. The best case scenario is that we win 4 more games than we would have had we just thrown Jake Arrieta out there, but then the pitcher leaves and we’re exactly where we are now, minus 7 million dollars and without the valuable experience gained on Arrieta’s part, but with four extra wins that were not a product of rebuilding.

This is why I think the injury reclamation pitchers are a better idea in general. We can win more games in the short term, not spend too much money, and will most likely still get plenty of opportunity to Arrieta et al.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew_G on Dec 1, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

Eh

I wouldn’t say that’s the best case scenario. I think the best case scenario is that he pitches well in the first half of the season and then we flip him to a contender for more prospects. Maybe Arrieta would be ready by that time…

by O'sFan21 on Dec 1, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

DO NOT WANT

Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008

by Eat More Esskay on Nov 30, 2009 11:21 PM EST reply actions

Millwood's not bad

But he’s not worth giving up players for. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rangers are likely to come away from the contract (5 years, $60 M) ahead.

by KakesForROY on Nov 30, 2009 11:32 PM EST reply actions

Those 2007-2008 WHIPs scare me.

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Nov 30, 2009 11:36 PM EST reply actions

Eh

Not worth giving anyone up, like KakesForROY said. I still want to bring back Erik Bedard.

by LoveForTheGame13 on Nov 30, 2009 11:47 PM EST reply actions

pass, big time

2009 ERA: 3.67
2009 FIP ERA: 4.80

I’m betting he’ll regress toward the mean and that right quick.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Dec 1, 2009 12:08 AM EST reply actions

yeah, but...

fangraphs has him valued at over $10 million for 7 of the past 8 seasons (their value calculations are based on innings pitched and FIP). he is entering his age 35 season, so we should expect a decline, that’s true. but 200 IP of 4.80 FIP ball was still worth more than $10 million on the free agent market.

honestly, there are two salary dumps I could see us going after – Millwood and Bronson Arroyo. they’re not going to be much more expensive (in terms of salary) than, say, Randy Wolf (who might even be expecting a multi-year deal), and we won’t have to give up anything substantial to acquire them.

by ugen64 on Dec 1, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't mind that much

if it was just a salary dump that we were picking up. It is one year and we do have money. However I’d also look to see if we could pick up an additional piece with him depending on how much of the salary we were picking up. Maybe an extra ss prospect or maybe a fringe pitcher who we could use as a reliever. Otherwise it’s a pass since he’d be about average to below average with some regression from BABIP and a lot of regression from his strand rate. The real red flag is that his strikeout rate dropped a strikeout an inning (actually slightly over) to 5.57. This is probably not the type of pitcher we want even for just one season.

Also probably should point out that his FIP for the past four years isn’t terrible. He only had such horrible eras from 2006-2008 because the Rangers had one of the worst defenses in MLB during that span
2006 3.87
2007 4.55
2008 4.02
2009 4.80

We already have one Guthrie no need to add a worse pitcher without his upside

by OsandRoyals on Dec 1, 2009 12:38 AM EST reply actions

No thanks

I take that back, actually. Not the no part, the thanks part.

by daveh873 on Dec 1, 2009 2:18 AM EST reply actions

How about we give up no prospects

and sign Justin Duchscherer. My god, if the Pirates can be interested, we can be interested too, doggone it.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 1, 2009 3:41 AM EST reply actions