The final look at Bill James' projections will focus on the Orioles young outfield. In Part 1 I drooled over Matt Wieters, in Part 2 I went into fantasyland, and here in Part 3 I will bask in the talent of the Orioles outfield.

It's hardly news to anyone here that the Orioles outfield is one of the most promising in baseball. All four outfielders will be 26 or younger on Opening Day 2010, all have shown a lot of promise, and one has already established himself as one of the most solid outfielders in the MLB. There will surely be discussions here about what exactly to do with the outfielders given that over the course of 2009 four of them showed they are capable of being starters. Should Nolan DH with Pie in LF? Would the outfield be better with Pie in CF and Jones in LF? Is Pie too good to be a 4th OF? Should he be traded for something the Orioles need more? These are the best kinds of questions to have because they all revolve around the actual talent of the players. It's a far cry from the O's outfields of recent past (Players to man the outfield for the Orioles from 2005-2008: Jeff Fiorentino, Eli Marrero, Eric Byrnes, 40 year old B.J. Surhoff, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, Jay Gibbons, Tike Redman, 40 year old Jeff Conine, Luis Matos, David Newhan, Sammy Sosa, Larry Bigbie, Brandon Fahey, Luis Terrero, Freddie Bynum, Lou Montanez, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis).

I'm going to operate under the assumption that the Orioles outfield will be, from left to right: Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis, with Felix Pie being the 4th outfielder who hopefully gets a good chunk of playing time. It's also safe to assume that at least one of the starters will have some injury problems (*cough* Adam Jones) and it would be nice to have someone competent to fill in.

 

 

Right Field

Nick Markakis' 2009 was something of a disappointment. After watching his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage increase each of his first three years in the majors, they all took a step back in 2009. His walks were nearly cut in half from 2008 to 2009 which resulted in about a 50 point drop in OBP. It was disheartening to watch, but I'm not worried about Nick. I'm sure he'll be just fine. Of course, if it happens again in 2010 I will probably have a melt down.

Nick Markakis	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	159	598	185	46	22	104	99	83	99	.309	.396	.503	.899
Markakis '09 stats	161	642	188	45	18	94	101	56	98	.293	.347	.453	.801
James '10 projections	161	630	189	47	21	101	103	72	103	.300	.374	.481	.855

Really, if you think about it, Nick's plate discipline was the only real thing that took a hit in 2009. Will that stick in the future? I don't think so. Whatever was happening with him I have the confidence that he'll be able to get it together. zknower hypothesized that the trade of Aubrey Huff took a toll on Nick, and FanGraphs pointed out that he started swinging more at pitches outside the strike zone and less at pitches inside the strike zone. FanGraphs also talks about his defensive dip, but I won't bother with that as one year of defensive data is hardly incriminating. I think in 2010 those numbers will go back up, he'll hit 40-45 doubles and 20ish home runs, and he'll take a few more walks. James has his OBP projected to .374, obviously affected by his 2009 season. That's not the .400 I hope to see from Nick, but it would have been tops on the team this year.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Swisher	150	507	125	32	26	85	80	90	131	.247	.365	.467	.833
J.D. Drew	142	498	134	30	22	90	76	91	119	.269	.385	.474	.859
Matt Joyce	120	375	97	27	17	59	60	49	92	.259	.346	.483	.829
Jose Bautista	121	369	89	21	13	51	48	48	90	.241	.335	.409	.744

Man. Look, I know the Orioles suck. They lost 98 games, they have a bunch of question marks, they're not in any place to point fingers. But wow, do the Blue Jays have a lousy lineup. It wasn't that long ago that the Blue Jays outfield looked pretty sweet with Alex Rios manning right and Vernon Wells in center. They signed them both to extensions (Wells' was ridiculous from the get-go, but Rios' didn't seem too bad) and then they both started to stink. They're stuck with Wells; no one is going to take him when he makes $20M a year. They gave Rios to the White Sox for nothing but payroll relief and he played even worse there. So now it looks like their option in RF is Jose Bautista. He played LF for most of the year but after Rios left he moved to RF to make room for prospect Travis Snider. I took a glance at John Sickels' Pre-2009 prospect list and there doesn't appear to be anyone waiting in the wings, so barring a FA signing or trade, it's Jose Bautista.

Matt Joyce played just a handful of games at the big league level in 2009 but he seems to be the heir apparent to RF in Tampa Bay. Joyce, you might remember, was traded to the Rays by the Tigers in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Joyce has had two successful seasons in AAA so it seems there's nowhere left to go for him but up. The Rays re-signed Gabe Kapler to a 1 year deal so I'd imagine he'll get a chunk of time in RF as well.

J.D. Drew played 137 games in 2009. I predict he will play anywhere from 75-150 games next year. Dude tends to get hurt, but he's a great player. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be a J.D. Drew clone who plays at least 155 games every year. A lot of people think Nick Swisher is a tool, but he can play. He makes up for his low-ish batting average with a ton of walks. I would be very happy if Nick Markakis grew up to be Nick Swisher plus 50 points on BA.

Verdict: I'll take Nicky every time. He's the youngest of any of them besides Joyce, he's always healthy, and he'll throw your ass out at second if you try to run.

Center Field

Oh Adam Jones. You're the center fielder of my dreams. You've made me forget all about the center fielders I adored as a young girl. Brady who? Devo what? You hit home runs, you leap over walls, you blow bubbles. You're just plain cool. And you're only 24! Thanks for coming into my life.

Adam Jones	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	150	480	134	24	15	71	65	30	108	.279	.326	.444	.770
Jones '09 stats	119	473	131	22	19	83	70	36	93	.277	.335	.457	.792
James '10 projections	154	571	162	29	22	95	83	40	115	.284	.336	.468	.804

Adam Jones is the yin to Nick Markakis' yang. In the perfect scenario, Nick is the well rounded hitter who gets on base a lot and has some pop but isn't going to mash. Adam Jones is always going to strike out some, probably won't take that many walks (although I would like to see him improve), but he'll hit you some home runs. I think 22 is a conservative estimate for Adam. He came out of the gate in 2009 absolutely crushing the ball. Then he had a few injuries and started to slump a little and couldn't quite get HR #20. He hit #19 on August 5th but then only played 20 more slumpy games before being shut down with an ankle sprain. I don't know that he'll do it in 2010, but if Adam can even himself out some and stay healthy, he'll hit 30 home runs.

James '10 predictions	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Gardner	104	325	90	11	3	63	28	45	58	.277	.368	.368	.744
Jacoby Ellsbury	157	635	192	32	9	106	62	52	73	.302	.360	.420	.780
B.J. Upton	142	507	135	30	13	59	75	67	136	.266	.354	.414	.768
Vernon Wells	144	549	149	33	19	77	77	43	75	.271	.327	.443	.769

Life is good in center field. Well, unless you're Vernon Wells. Not only is Vernon Wells 5 years older than the next oldest CF (Ellsbury), he's not all that good defensively, he can't hit, and he plays in Canada.

B.J. Upton is a mystery. While his defense is top notch, his hitting in 2009 was just atrocious. After putting up monster stats in 2007, his numbers dropped in 2008 and were anemic in 2009 as he hit .241/.313/.373. He's been touted as one of the best young talents in baseball for a number of years, but the future is cloudy for him. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Bill James projects him to be better than in '09 but worse than he was in 2008. He'll be just 25 years old on Opening Day with 513 big league games under his belt so he's already ahead of the curve. I think he has plenty of time to get it together.

Jacoby Ellsbury just finished his second full big league season and is a good guy to have on your team. In 331 career games he's stolen 129 bases with a nearly 85% success rate. He doesn't have power but he gets on base a lot and steals pretty much all the time. He hasn't posted an OPS+ over 100 in either of his two full seasons, but if he can learn to take a few more walks he could be a force at the top of their lineup. His BB% in 2009 was just 7.3%, easily worst among AL East leadoff batters. Roberts, Jeter, and Scutaro all had BB% over 10% and B.J. Upton was at 9.2%.

It might be Brett Gardner for the Yankees next year, it might be Melky Cabrera. Gardner looked like he'd get a lot of playing time in 2009 but kept getting injured. Neither of them can really hit, but Gardner runs circles around Cabrera defensively.

Verdict: Dr. Jones is the best CF in the AL East.

Left Field

While there was no doubt who would play right field and center field in 2009, left field wasn't as settled. Luke Scott wanted to play there but got sent to DH, Felix Pie was supposed to get a shot but got pulled after a few weeks, and Lou Montanez somehow got in there a bit as well. All the while Nolan Reimold just chilled at AAA Norfolk, hitting .394/.485/.743 with 18 BB, 9 HR and 11 2B in 31 games before injuries to Adam Jones, Luke Scott, and Lou Montanez forced the Orioles to call him up. Once they did Nolan didn't give them a chance to even act like they would send him back down and left field was his for the rest of the year. He was truly one of the brightest spots of 2009. Nolan hadn't spent any time above AA before 2009 so Bill James didn't do any projections for him.

Nolan Reimold	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Reimold '09 stats	104	358	100	18	15	49	45	47	77	.279	.365	.466	.831
James '10 projection	152	538	157	34	29	84	105	68	102	.292	.373	.524	.898

Remember I said before that Bill James tends to be pretty optimistic about young guys without much historic data? I'll try to keep that in mind, but when I first read those numbers I may have clapped my hands like I was Felix Pie beating out a throw to third. I mean, if Nolan Reimold can hit like that? If he can hit 29 HR in his second big league season? I won't even know what to do with myself.

James '10 Projections	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Holliday	155	605	191	43	27	105	109	66	112	.316	.391	.531	.922
Jason Bay	153	560	150	32	32	99	103	88	159	.268	.374	.504	.878
Carl Crawford	140	528	156	24	12	82	62	36	84	.295	.346	.439	.786
Travis Snider	141	527	145	35	26	82	90	65	159	.275	.357	.493	.850

Yes, I made Matt Holliday a Yankee. I mean, it's inevitable, isn't it? Or maybe the Red Sox will sign him and the Yankees will settle for Jason Bay. Either way, the chart works. And can I say, left field is stacked. No offense to Adam Jones or Felix Pie, but this right here is why you don't move Reimold to DH and put one of them at LF. If Reimold can possibly put up numbers like the ones Bill James projects, that means he can play with the big boys. Yes, his defense is sometimes questioned, but it's left field. He'll be ok.

Verdict: Try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much, try not to get your hopes up too much.

And Felix

I can't leave him out, can I? Felix went from curiosity to object of disdain to most likable Oriole over the course of the season. This kid is awesome.

Felix Pie	G	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James '09 projections	143	498	138	26	12	70	59	33	94	.277	.320	.407	.727
Pie '09 stats	101	252	67	10	9	38	29	24	58	.266	.326	.437	.763
James '10 projections	143	345	94	18	11	53	42	27	71	.272	.325	.443	.769

James predicts that Felix will be a little better than he was in 2009. I don't know if that's true. I don't know what to believe. I know I like this kid way more than I probably should, and once I get an emotional attachment it's hard for me to be rational (see Scott, Luke). But those of us who watched Felix Pie in 2009 know that he's was like two different baseball players. If you divide his games right down the middle (so it doesn't look like I'm cherry picking), here is what you get:

First Half: 50 G, 114 PA, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 BB, 25 K, .235/.304/.363
Second Half: 51 G, 167 PA, 7 2B, 7 HR, 14 BB, 33 K, .287/.341/.487

I know, I know. That's not enough to tell what he'll be in 2010. I agree. But his improvement was so remarkable. We saw it with our own eyes . Who knows what will happen to him, but if he can hit like that over a whole season then he can't sit on the bench. He can't. If he can hit like that over a whole season, you have to find a place he can play every day, even if it's (sniff) on another team.

I love our outfield. Here's a quick side-by-side of the OFs in the O's Division.

Orioles	Blue Jays	Rays	Red Sox	Yankees
Nick Markakis	Jose Bautista	Matt Joyce	J.D. Drew	Nick Swisher
Adam Jones	Vernon Wells	B.J. Upton	Jacoby Ellsbury	Brett Gardner
Nolan Reimold	Travis Snider	Carl Crawford	Jason Bay	Matt Holliday

Obviously Holliday is the best player on the board, but taking the outfields as a group? It's close, but I'll take the O's.