Monday Bird Droppings

by Camden Chat on Nov 9, 2009 6:00 AM EST in Open Threads Comment 14 comments

Your Offseason O of the Day: John Lowenstein. via i8.photobucket.com

He's a Honey Bear
Just for fun, the old Nick Markakis commercial. -Stacey

Victor Zambrano's mother kidnapped
The former Oriole's mother was taken by eight armed men on the pitcher's farm in Venezuela. Horrifying. -Stacey

Tillman earns valuable experience | orioles.com
That Chris Tillman, he's a good kid. -Stacey

Bowie Baysox Host MDA Lock-Up Nov. 17
The Lock-Up will celebrate the Jailbirds’ success in raising money to help send local children to MDA Summer Camp at Camp Maria in Leonardtown, MD. -duck

Delmarva Shorebirds announce 2010 schedule, Fireworks, new start times
The Shorebirds are tinkering with start times, moving back Sunday starts to 2:05 before the All-Star Break and to 5:05 after the All-Star Break. And since its the 15th Anniversary season, there's lots of special dates on the calendar. -duck

AFL West beats AFL East in Rising Stars Game
Brandon Snyder went 1-for-4 and Josh Bell had a SAC fly in a losing cause. -duck

And then? And then when I walked down the street people would've looked and they would've said there goes Open Thread, the best there ever was in this game.

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That Victor Zambrano story makes me so sad

I feel like I’ve heard that baseball players families get kidnapped kind of a lot down in central America. Is that true?

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 9, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There's definitely an issue with it in Venezuela

Remember that player’s son who was kidnapped earlier this past season? (NYT article). Not sure about other South or Central American countries, though.

by O Nina on Nov 9, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yorvit Torrealba’s kid got kidnapped this season. Returned safely. (that’s who O Nina is referencing).

Also I want to say Henry Blanco’s brother got kidnapped and murdered.

Kidnapping of anybody with money is a big business down there.

by O'sFan21 on Nov 9, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now there is

an idea. Rather than working and making an honest living, let’s go around acting like cowards and abduct the family members of athletes.

Primitive fucks. Grow some balls and rob a bank or something. And why in the hell did it take 8 pussies with guns to kidnap a woman likely over the age of 70??

by sickuvitall on Nov 9, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another bird dropping

BP released their top 11 O’s prospects

No surprises. Mr. Mandy Moore didn’t make this list.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Nov 9, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

An excerpt

Not about the prospects, but rather the young talent overall on the O’s.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)
1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Adam Jones, CF
3. Chris Tillman, RHP
4. Brian Matusz, LHP
5. Felix Pie, OF
6. Josh Bell, 3B
7. Jake Arrieta, RHP
8. Zach Britton, LHP
9. Matt Hobgood, RHP
10. Brandon Erbe, RHP

The top of this list is the first exhibit for why the Orioles are a team on the way up, as that top three competes with any team in baseball’s list of under-25 talents. Wieters hit .301 during the second half of the year during his big-league debut; you can expect that to happen with regularity, and the power with it. Jones is still just scratching the surface of his abilities; for me, he’s Mike Cameron with five times the pure hitting ability, and that’s a perennial All-Star. While Tillman struggled in his Baltimore debut, his stuff remains outstanding, and it’s easy to forget he’s more than a year younger than Matusz. I’ve always been a believer in Pie, so I believe in what we saw during the second half of 2009. Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez both earned consideration, but would you trade either for Erbe? Bergesen’s 3.43 ERA last year was pure smoke and mirrors, unsustainable with a strikeout rate under five per nine innings.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 9, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone want to argue with this?

“Bergesen’s 3.43 ERA last year was pure smoke and mirrors, unsustainable with a strikeout rate under five per nine innings” is at the bottom of the (paid) article. I’d agree with it if it didn’t have that damn “pure” in there. There’s little doubt in my mind that 3E can replicate his walk and ground ball numbers, and therefore be a 4.00ish ERA pitcher.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew @ TLC on Nov 9, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he overstated it a little bit there, but in the comments he said “No. 5 starter type — eats innings, ERA around league average to a tick below.” That’s about where I am on Bergy.

I’d put Bergesen in the top 10, but it seems like Goldstein values upside a bit more than I do. Maybe it’s just that the above description sounds pretty damn good to an O’s fan.

by dkdc on Nov 9, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

strikeout rates are a stupid metric that fantasy and roto guys are obsessed with

scott mcgregor had a pretty decent career, with a career ERA just under 4.00 (which includes his declining years and his rookie season as well) and a lifetime k/9 rate that was under four, let alone five. And BOY, did it hold him back.

All he ever did was win 15 or more games 4 times, win 20 one year, and pitch a shutout to clinch the world series.

when you induce ground balls, you also last longer in games. Scotty pitched 22 complete games over the 1983 and 1984 seasons.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Nov 9, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's a great comparison actually

One of the things that helped McGregor (and Bergy in ‘09) be so successful was the low walks. McGregor had a 2.2 BB/9 for his career, which is just amazing, with several years where it was under 2. Bergy in ’09 had a BB/9 of 2.3. If you’re going to be a contact pitcher like McGregor and Bergy you can’t walk as many guys as a strikeout pitcher because the ball is being put into play so much.

Despite having the lowest K rate of any starter for the O’s in 2009, only Koji had a higher K/BB (in half as many innings).

I agree with Andrew and others who say Bergesen won’t maintain an ERA of less than 3.5, but an ERA of 4.0 would be just fine with me.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 9, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You hit on the really important stat here.

K/BB is much, much more important than K/9. I think Bergy could easily have an ERA in that high-three to low-four range most years, and I’d be plenty happy with that. If he can keep inducing ground balls with regularity and avoid walking guys (i.e., do what he did this year), he’s a solid number 4; if he’s our number 5 in the future, I’d be thrilled.

Also, I think he was getting better at striking guys out as the year went on, if you look at his game-by-game log. Maybe he figured something out, or maybe he just decided to try to get more strikeouts; I don’t know. I think a lot of stat guys just don’t like non-strikeout pitchers because their results are dependent on fielding and, frankly, because they’re harder to analyze.

Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

by Vuff on Nov 9, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Context

League average K/9 was in the high 4s in McGregor’s heyday, and it’s in the high 6s today. If Bergesen had pitched in McGregor’s era of contact hitters, he probably have an even lower K-rate than McGregor.

Bergesen may very well be McGregor’s equal, but that makes him a 4.50 ERA pitcher in today’s game. There’s nothing wrong with that.

by dkdc on Nov 9, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another link

The GM meetings have begun in Chicago and Rosenthal is there updating:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10344432/LIVE:-blog-from-MLB%27s-GM-meetings

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Nov 9, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs