Thursday Bird Droppings
by Camden Chat on Dec 10, 2009 7:00 AM EST
in Open Threads
147 comments
There's a billion articles on the web about the Millwood-for-Ray trade, and lots of discussion here at Camden Chat.
In other news,
The Rangers have agreed to terms with Rich Harden and are close to a deal with the Red Sox that would give them Mike Lowell for minor league catcher Max Ramirez. The Sox are in the mix for Adrian Beltre to replace Lowell at third. Andy Pettitte re-signed with the Yankees for a year. The Brewers bagged Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. The Astros got closer Matt Lindstrom in a trade with Florida, and are close to signing closer Brandon Lyon. And the Blue Jays are again taking the Orioles sloppy seconds as they signed the car jumping wonder Joey Gathright.
The Mets asked why the world was passing them by.
Florida Marlins: Giants cooling, Orioles warming on Uggla?
"The Orioles aren't going to move Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz, but they might consider parting with prospects like Jake Arrieta, David Hernandez, Jason Berken or Zach Britton. Two from that group probably nets them Uggla." Two out of that group? For Dan Uggla? Pass. -duck
Orioles could become players on Hideki Matsui - CBSSports.com
According to Scott Miller, the Orioles, could become serious players for Hideki Matsui depending on how things play out there with the Yankees and where Matsui might turn next. This is hardly a blurb, and seems like mostly speculation. -zk
Roundup - In Annual Address, Scott Boras Delivers Just the Highlights - NYTimes.com
Scott Boras flaps his gums at the winter meetings, comparing Holliday to Mark Teixeira. -zk
So make a trade already | DailyHerald.com Blogs
These guys are impatient because Andy MacPhail moved faster than Jim Hendry. I'm really, really tired of "fans" who aren't happy unless "something interesting" happens for their team at the winter meetings. These guys would love Schmuck, who feels the winter meetings exist for teams to make a headline-grabbing splash that will sell season tickets. -zk
M's sign outfielder Corey Patterson
Former Orioles (S)Corey Patterson signs a minor-league deal with the Ms. -zk
I never thought it was such a bad little Open Thread. It's not bad at all, really. Maybe it just needs a little love.
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Awww Scorey. I forgot his nickname.
Remember when we liked him?
I guess there’s no chance the O’s do anything today, huh? Now that I’ve had a taste for the action I want some more! I guess zk is really, really tired of me.
by Stacey on Dec 10, 2009 7:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pedro Feliz and Erik Bedard will have to wait until after the meetings
I like Schmuck’s comments about the Winter Meetings. They are an over-sensationalism of four or fives teams. And unless you like those teams, it means nothing.
by Dr Orpheus on Dec 10, 2009 7:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The meetings are definitely way overhyped
Heck, Billy Beane already left them to go home and “get some work done”. If that’s not a damning statement, I don’t know what is.
It’s too bad for Schmuck that headline-grabbing deals don’t actually lead to a meaningful increase ticket sales…that would be an interesting world to live in, though.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 8:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the two it would take from that group
are Hernandez and Berken, i’d think about it. Arrieta and Britton are not to be touched for Dan Uggla. A guy like Miguel Cabrera, ok. Not Dan Uggla.
by daveh873 on Dec 10, 2009 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Arrieta and Britton are virtual untouchables unless it’s for a real difference maker like Cabrera or A.Gonzalez. Hernandez and Berken would be ok, though. At this point, I’m not sure Delgado might not be a reasonable choice at 1B for next year, though.
by fuddnelson on Dec 10, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah Id be fine with sending Hernandez and Berken for Uggla
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects
by ravensfan3 on Dec 10, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
aww both?
i hate to see them BOTH go. maybe just jason berken.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously. I'm annoyed that Britton and Arrieta are even being mentioned.
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shooting for the moon is called due diligence
Like asking for Billy Butler for Felix Pie.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Butler for Pie is perfectly reasonable!
Greinke for Pie on the other hand…
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sign me up
heck….they should pay us to take greinke off their hands. i could part with pie. plus it’d be like getting birthday cake in return anyways
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes to Matsui
No to Uggla at that price.
Re Matsui: Originally I thought the Yankees definitely re-sign him. Then I thought “well maybe he wants more than one year and maybe the Yanks are thinking they’ll move Posada to DH/backup catcher once they sign Mauer so the Yanks won’t want to give Matsui multiple years.” Then I realized that the Yanks don’t think twice about putting a multi-million dollar player on the bench for a year or more, so now I’m convinced they bring him back. And they sign Lackey and Holliday or Bay. And then they trade for Halladay just to kick the rest of the league in the nuts.
Game Over T-shirts: http://www.cafepress.com/beltwaysports
by CStoneNo37 on Dec 10, 2009 9:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
The Giants took Steve Johnson in the rule 5 draft
complete list here: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/rule_5.jsp
by Stacey on Dec 10, 2009 10:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
well on the plus side for him,
that means he’ll be on the ML roster all year.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
by zknower on Dec 10, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still find it annoying that we didn't protect him.
But I guess there’s a good chance we’ll be getting him back?
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
haha yea....
for kevin millwood
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah I meant
that I figured they wouldn’t be able to keep him on the active the whole year and we’d get him back for nothing. Doesn’t that happen a lot with Rule 5 picks?
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yea haha i know what you meant
i just had to throw that one out there tho.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd guess it's a decent chance
especially since the Giants have a pretty good pitching staff.
by Stacey on Dec 10, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but....
they do love their bargain-bin relief pitchers. it’s Brian Sabean’s MO – a few years back they even had Brad Hennessey as their closer. also, since their starters are all pretty good (even Zito is around league average), you might be able to hide the 6th guy in the bullpen for a whole season.
that said I was never that hung up on losing 1 pitching prospect, a guy that MacPhail himself acquired in a trade for another guy he acquired in a trade (so I don’t really understand the people who are criticizing him for this roster decision)
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The criticism is fair
because the Orioles lost (presumably) something they didn’t need to lose in order to make sure they didn’t lose Pedro Florimon, Jr. – who isn’t anybody. It’s not a major blow, but it’s definitely a (presumable) mistake.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not anybody?
a) Everth Cabrera was arguably less of a prospect than Florimon, and he spent most of the season as the starting shortstop for the Padres (despite having his numbers significantly depressed by his home park).
b) for many teams, it’s easier to stash a utility infielder / defensive replacement type on your roster than it is to stash a pitcher. when you see guys like Juan Castro, Tony Pena (the infielder), and John McDonald routinely finding spots on Major League rosters, why couldn’t Florimon? I mean, we kept Robert Andino on our ML roster for the whole season…
c) looking at our own organization, our pitching depth is a lot better than our shortstop depth. if we didn’t have Brian Roberts, middle infield depth would be a huge problem right now; as it stands it’s only a moderate problem. behind Izturis, what are our shortstop options? we have Robert Andino whose defense isn’t amazing and who doesn’t seem to be good enough offensively to make up for it. behind him, what do we have? oh yeah, Florimon. but I think it’s fair to say that Steve Johnson is something like 10th in line for the rotation right now, behind… Millwood, Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Erbe, Hernandez, Berken, probably Britton. unless we have a catastrophic prospect failure, that’s a lot of depth, and “losing” one C+ ranked prospect (don’t forget, around 75% of players selected in the Rule V draft are returned to their original teams) doesn’t seem to be a big deal.
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just because
the Orioles have a deficiency in middle infielders doesn’t make Florimon better, and just because the Orioles have a surplus of pitching prospects doesn’t make Johnson worse. In terms of raw talent, Johnson is clearly better than Florimon (though of course it’s difficult to really compare the two). In my opinion (and the opinions of many) Johnson is more likely to stick for five months on a major league roster than Florimon.
I’m not saying that that’s 100% absolute truth, but you have to at least say there’s a very reasonable argument to make that not protecting Johnson was a misstep.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the numbers speak
16 pitchers were selected in the ML phase of the Rule V draft last season. of those 16 pitchers, 12 of them were offered back to their original teams. (some of them were refused by their original teams and waived / released / whatever; in other cases, the drafting team made a trade to acquire the full rights of the player)
in 2007, it was 12 / 14 pitchers.
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
of those 16 pitchers, 12 of them were offered back to their original teams.
Including our own Rocky Cherry!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
MacPhail on Johnson, via Schmuck
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/schmuck/2009/12/rule_5_macphail_on_johnson.html
Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said he was not particularly surprised that Double-A pitching prospect Steve Johnson was selected by the Giants in the Rule 5 Draft today.
“Not really,‘’ he said. "We knew it was a possibility. The kid is truly a prospect. I don’t think there is any doubt about that. The question is whether he can stay at the major league level. We just don’t think he’s that close."
Though the Orioles have a handful of players on the 40-man roster who probably could have been outrighted to make room for Johnson on the O’s protected list, MacPhail would not second-guess the decision to leave Johnson unprotected.
“Our judgment was that he just wasn’t close enough to be able to stick with the big league club all year,‘’ he said. "The odds are we’ll get him back. That’s what happens with the vast majority of (Rule 5 draftees)."
by Stacey on Dec 10, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope that's true.
But if there are guys on the roster who could have been outrighted to protect him, why not just do that if you think he is “truly a prospect”?
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There are benefits to keeping him off the 40 man
You can save money, you don’t start using his option years, and you have extra room for someone else to put on the roster who could help sooner than Johnson. But obviously there is the risk that he never comes back.
I’m guessing he’s in Bowie for Opening Day, though. But it’s still a headache we didn’t really need to go through.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rafael Soriano to Rays
for Jesse Chavez, no cash involved.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 10:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
so i'm at trivia last night
and one of the questions was “which team traded three future all-stars curt schilling, steve finley, and pete harnisch to the houston astros for aging designated hitter glenn davis in 1991?” had to love that i knew the answer and we were the only team that got it, but i hate those ppl for asking that.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Poll:
Who is old enough to get the “Mr. Ray” joke above?
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
by zknower on Dec 10, 2009 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You KNOW I am
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
by duck on Dec 10, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I got the one about the fish.
Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 10, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well that's a relief.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
by zknower on Dec 10, 2009 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I might be, but I forget
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
by Titov on Dec 11, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tired of using regular blankets....
like this asshole?
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't want Millwood
Millwood might win us an extra 5 games next year. To that, I say, “so what.” In exchange for 5 extra wins, we have given up a young pitcher with promise in exchange for a pitcher won’t be around for long.
Also, I too am irritated to hear the names Arrieta and Britton mentioned in trade rumors.
by BaltoBen on Dec 10, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ray's promise
is very very debatable
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sure you can!
i’m old enough to drink. thats old enough!!
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was a Holy Grail reference
You could say ‘Dennis’.
Well, I didn’t know you were called Dennis.
Well, you were bound to find out, didn’t you?
by Dr Orpheus on Dec 10, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
damn...cant believe i didnt catch that
i was just watching that movie…..
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe the correct last line is
Well, you didn’t bother to find out, did you?
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
by zknower on Dec 10, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Man, Ed Wade is the gift that keeps on giving
He traded for the Marlins’ closer Lindstrom AND gave $15 MM to Brandon Lyon. Someone better tell him that there are still four or five other closers on the market for him to grab.
"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson
by Brotz13 on Dec 10, 2009 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Feliz to the Astros?
That would certainly throw a wrench in MacPhail’s presumed plans. Who becomes the top third base target now? Garret Atkins?
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just saw that myself.
I thought Feliz was probably the best fit for the O’s situation, and the buzz seemed to be that he was indeed the primary target.
Joe Crede, maybe? I really have no idea now.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
by Vuff on Dec 10, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe not Atkins
his defense isn’t great. I would bet that a healthy Joe Crede is next on his list, but it’s unlikely that he’s actually healthy. So, maybe… Troy Glaus? Who knows.
you gotta love the Astros though. they bid against themselves to sign a slightly above average relief pitcher to a long-term deal, then they sign a 3B “stopgap”. a stopgap for what? the Astros have the worst farm system in the majors.
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wade's probably thinking
“Feliz helped the Phillies reach the World Series in back to back years. I want to reach the World Series in back to back years. Ergo, I will sign Pedro Feliz.”
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wanted Garret Atkins in the first place
Pedro Feliz is nice too, but he’s most likely gone now. I hope it’s Atkins we get. I would pick Crede next, then unfortunately Blalock.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 10, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to a list of tweets, this is a done deal
I guess I wouldn’t mind Crede or, um, Atkins or Glaus.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta say I'm not liking our offseason so far
We’ve lost Ray, Liz, Johnson and the #3 pick in the rule V and added Kevin Millwood at $9m and Craig Tatum. We missed out on Feliz, which in itself would be okay but now I suspect we end up trading for Uggla, which isn’t okay.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 1:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's early
but, yeah, the early returns are underwhelming. But there’s a lot of time left and a lot of presents still on the shopping list.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I should say "underwhelming IMO"
obviously there is a debate over one of the acquisitions, and I’ve no interest in continuing it any longer.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree
I like the Millwood trade…I think. But it’s not like I"m SO PUMPED about it.
The offseason has been underwhelming so far but it’s Andy MacPhail and it’s December, not March. let’s see how we feel in March first.
by Steve. on Dec 10, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't merely the return that bothers me
It is the failure to maximize our returns and the attitude expressed by our decisions. Let’s be blunt: we didn’t protect Johnson to save a 40 man roster spot. We dropped Liz from the 40 man to have an available spot before the rule V draft. And we traded that pick to the Rangers for Millwood. In essence, we can add Liz and Johnson to the price for Millwood.
I’m sorry, but I can’t be the only person listening to Trembley and MacPhail talk about how Millwood is our new #1 starter and anchor and be remembering the bad old days when some overpaid, undertalented veteran signing was the answer to our problems. And if you look at the entire picture, we’ve given up a lot more than Chris Ray for him.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, this is the thing that makes me the most...irked
I’m terribly worried that Trembley and – worst – McPhail are trying to sell us Kevin Millwood as a top of the rotation guy. I’m terribly worried that they actually believe that bunk. My reaction to the trade is probably an overcompensation against that very fear.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The other thing pissing me off...
…is everyone saying the money for Millwood isn’t an issue.
Yes, the Orioles have money to spend. That doesn’t mean we should spend it stupidly. That money is money that we could have used to take the most talented player available with the fifth pick last year. We could have used it to sign our eighth round pick, Devin Harris, to an overslot deal. We could use it to give fans in Baltimore the cheapest tickets to games in an empty stadium in baseball. We could use it to add $9 million to an offer for a long-term deal for Wieters. We could have used it to sign Noel Arguelles, which the Royals did for $7m guaranteed. We could have used it to sign Miguel Sano.
These are all things we’ve either missed out on or haven’t done. And most would have cost less than one season of Millwood.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hat money is money that we could have used to take the most talented player available with the fifth pick last year. We could have used it to sign our eighth round pick, Devin Harris, to an overslot deal. We could use it to give fans in Baltimore the cheapest tickets to games in an empty stadium in baseball. We could use it to add $9 million to an offer for a long-term deal for Wieters. We could have used it to sign Noel Arguelles, which the Royals did for $7m guaranteed. We could have used it to sign Miguel Sano.
I agree and none of this means this $9M must be diverted from somewhere else!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good lord are we starting this discussion today as well?
by Stacey on Dec 10, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t get enough last night!
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its been going on all nite.
was still going at like 3am this morning!
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is where you lose me, unfortunately
I don’t know how the budget works, and I can’t guess, so I can’t comment on how it affects the draft or the international budgets. I do know that ticket prices have no relationship to the roster budget, and I am pretty confident that Millwood won’t affect the Boras-represented Wieters turning down whatever contract extension we offer one way or t’other.
The Orioles held (and hold) one important advantage over a lot of these teams in having their payroll flexibilty to acquire relatively expensive players. I’m not upset at all that they used it. I’m upset that they used it to get a bad player.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how the budget works either
What I do know is that money is fungible. What is spent on X can, by definition, be spent on Y.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is spent on X can, by definition, be spent on Y.
That’s my take as well. And that’s about as far as I’ll go in how the budget works. I certainly don’t know about the permeability between budget areas and neither does anyone else here.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m upset that they used it to get a bad player.
Exactly. He’s eat innings no doubt. He’ll have a minuscule effect on saving the BP. But Millwood is an expensive, slightly below average pitcher on on a one year deal. Whoop dee do.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
slightly below average pitchers are valuable
You don’t even have to use newfangled statistics like FIP to prove it. Let’s say Millwood underperforms and posts a 5.00 ERA in 200 IP. Compared to last season, that is replacing 200 innings of David Hernandez + Jason Berken, who combined for a 6.00 ERA or thereabouts. That’s a difference of 1 runs per 9 innings, over 200 innings, meaning 20 runs in total. On average, 10 runs = 1 win, so Millwood adds 2 wins. In free agency, teams have been paying roughly $4 million per win (it used to be more like $5 million but the economy and all) so his contract will be a wash.
Or will it? Because of his inflated ERA last season, Millwood will almost certainly be a type B free agent, and he might be a type A free agent. As he is a Scott Boras client, there’s very little risk involved in offering him arbitration. We could also flip him at the deadline for prospects. Either way, Millwood’s performance itself is a wash, but in the long term we will also see a return in prospects.
And what about the bullpen? Yeah, Millwood’s ability to eat innings is nice, but I agree with you that it’s not a huge deal. What it does give us is flexibility, however. It means we don’t have to force a guy like Hernandez or Berken in the rotation, when maybe they would be better out of the pen, or (in Berken’s case) back in the minors. It means we maybe won’t be carrying 12-13 pitchers all the time, giving us more roster space for youngish bench players like Justin Turner. It means we can trade Jeremy Guthrie if we receive a great offer for him. It means we can keep Arrieta in the minors until he’s truly ready. It means we won’t have to see guys like Chris Waters pitching in the rotation simply because we don’t have other options.
Finally, the money issue. First of all, it seems quite odd to accuse this front office of skimping on the draft. Three years ago we picked Matt Wieters, probably the worst signability pick in the draft. He turned out pretty good. Two years ago, we picked Brian Matusz, who is probably now one of the top 10, certainly one of the top 20 prospects in the majors. Last season, we picked Matt Hobgood. Now first of all, I would be delighted if we had a 2/3 success rate over the past 3 drafts, considering our previous success rate was like 2/10 (the 2 being Roberts and Markakis). But moreover, look at how many overslot picks we made last year. Sure, maybe Hobgood was a signability pick, but I think we more than made up for it by drafting guys like Coffey and Berry in lower rounds and giving them huge signing bonuses relative to their slot.
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wieters
yeah I know Wieters was drafted before MacPhail arrived. but I’m pretty sure the scouting director was still Joe Jordan (and that’s the guy who really runs the draft), and our owner was still Peter Angelos (who has, shall we say, occasionally been accused of skimping on this ballclub).
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For what it is worth
Finally, the money issue. First of all, it seems quite odd to accuse this front office of skimping on the draft. Three years ago we picked Matt Wieters, probably the worst signability pick in the draft. He turned out pretty good. Two years ago, we picked Brian Matusz, who is probably now one of the top 10, certainly one of the top 20 prospects in the majors. Last season, we picked Matt Hobgood. Now first of all, I would be delighted if we had a 2/3 success rate over the past 3 drafts, considering our previous success rate was like 2/10 (the 2 being Roberts and Markakis). But moreover, look at how many overslot picks we made last year. Sure, maybe Hobgood was a signability pick, but I think we more than made up for it by drafting guys like Coffey and Berry in lower rounds and giving them huge signing bonuses relative to their slot.
I don’t think that I was accusing the front office of skimping on the draft. I wasn’t actually accusing them of skimping on anything. I was saying that the money spent on Millwood doesn’t represent the best possible use of that money, and that since we aren’t using the money on its best possible uses, we aren’t getting the most out of it that we could be.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don’t even have to use newfangled statistics like FIP to prove it. Let’s say Millwood underperforms and posts a 5.00 ERA in 200 IP. Compared to last season, that is replacing 200 innings of David Hernandez + Jason Berken, who combined for a 6.00 ERA or thereabouts. That’s a difference of 1 runs per 9 innings, over 200 innings, meaning 20 runs in total. On average, 10 runs = 1 win, so Millwood adds 2 wins. In free agency, teams have been paying roughly $4 million per win (it used to be more like $5 million but the economy and all) so his contract will be a wash.
Sure, it’s just debatable about the value of those extra 2-3 wins on a 69 win team.
Finally, the money issue. First of all, it seems quite odd to accuse this front office of skimping on the draft.
NOBODY is making this accusation. Overall, I’m pleased with how much they spent on the draft.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the main difference between our arguments is that you see the $8 million as a big deal; I don’t. I think it has to do with context. For a team like the Padres and Marlins, $8 million is undoubtedly a big deal – nobody can argue against that. But for a team like the O’s – we’re profitable, our team has a lot of fans (yeah they don’t show up to the games right now, but the Marlins never had good attendance, even when they were winning the World Series), and most importantly, we have a ton of payroll coming off the books.
I mean come on, we were paying $5 million to Jay Gibbons’s shadow last season. I can’t really blame MacPhail for investing the money we spent on Jamie Walker + Jay Gibbons last season into a guy that isn’t really gonna make a big difference in the long-term.
by ugen64 on Dec 10, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On the money thing
We’re paying Millwood what we payed for Huff last year, who is no longer under contract, so really, it’s a wash when it comes to payroll.
"I'd like to do something. We all would here," he added. "As I've said before, you just don't want to do anything stupid that you're thinking in May, 'What in the God's green earth was I thinking about?'" - Andy MacPhail 12/8/09
by getxstoked on Dec 10, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What's the problem with money?
the value of 200IP where the OPSa isn’t over 1.000 is worth the money. Sure it’s inequitable, and it’s an overpay, but look at what we’re paying for pitching so far next year:
Millwood $9M
Guthrie $3M (arb guess)
Matusz $0.9M
Bergesen $0.4M
Tillman $0.4M
So, not even $15M for the entire rotation. That’s only expensive if you’re the Marlins.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, it’s just debatable about the value of those extra 2-3 wins on a 69 win team.
well it cant hurt.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hurt/help is the wrong question.
it’s all about efficient resource allocation.
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
by birdman on Dec 10, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well
we’ve efficiently allocated resources to grab 2-3 extra wins. i mean, that trade got done pretty fast!
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you actually just include losing Liz in a list of things you were unhappy about???
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ahaha i wasnt gonna say it!
but i was thinking it
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We lost two dead weight pro level pitchers who are easily replaceable and one good prospect who McPhail is convinced will be returned….. forget what we added, but what have we lost? nothing really. ….
Please come off the ledge. McPhail has an incredible track record so no need to panic. We all know he has holes still to fill but there are still plenty of options.
by bigity b on Dec 10, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I'm on a ledge
I’m just not happy. MacPhail has a good track record, not a great one, unless I missed the salvation of the Cubs somewhere along the way. I have faith, but I also have my sense and my reason, and so far I see that the Yankees and Rays are significantly better and we aren’t. We lost one of our top 20 prospects in the Rule V draft and didn’t gain anyone from it, despite having the #3 pick, despite the fact that it is almost certain that one of the players taken today will have a better season than Brian Bass (for example).
None of these moves are disastrous. But they aren’t good news either, and I don’t see why I should pretend that it is.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But we're probably going to get the prospect that we lost back.
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah if he is we're fucked. There isn't really any indication of that being the case though...
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
fucked probably isnt the right word
if he turns out to be the second coming of cy young maybe. but even if he turns out to be really good, its not like our team is going to be damaged or something. its just gonna be kinda shitty knowing that we lost a great player.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There is the sub-3.00 ERA...
…with a 2.5 K/BB ratio in fifty-odd AA innings.
I’ll admit it is unlikely. But so was Bergesen’s major league success.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with you for the most part
but you cant really compare our offseason with the yankees offseason.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But that's who we're up against
This is my concern. We can’t outspend the Yankees; therefore, we have to make the most of our opportunities.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh i agree
but we really havent had that many opportunities so far and i dont think we’ve screwed anything up. losing liz is not a concern and if the orioles had wanted to put johnson on the 40 man, they would have done so. somebody mentioned the fact that the millwood deal cost us a roster spot, but ray would have been non-tendered after the rule V anyways so he would have still been occupying that spot. unless the PTBNL that we sent over to the rangers turns out to be really good, we havent really done anything stupid yet. we did miss out on feliz (or so it would seem), but i never really heard anything about him wanting to come here anyways.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I've made my case re: Liz
I think he was mishandled both as a prospect, and that we mishandled his value. There was a time when he had trade value, if not actual value. I don’t like what it says about our player evaluation, even if at this point he was a lost cause for us to get anything out of.
Regarding Johnson – if he wasn’t valuable enough to get a 40-man spot, then he wasn’t worth trading for. My sentiment is that I think he was worth the spot, but the Orioles expected he wouldn’t be taken and got caught trying to sneak him through. And I don’t like what that says about our ability to gauge the actions of the other 29 teams. And the PTBNL we sent to the Rangers was the third pick in the Rule V, which I think was a good opportunity to get a valuable player for essentially nothing. Especially with our reported interest in Kevin Gregg, Fernando Rodney, and other relievers without any real value to us but who will cost millions of dollars, we ought to have tried to get an equivalent pitcher for the minimum in the Rule V draft. That the Orioles obviously and repeatedly considered the Rule V draft barely worth considering is something that concerns me – those kinds of chances on high upside unpolished arms are exactly the kind a team in our position should be taking.
The problem is that these aren’t the signs of a club which realizes its position and is going all out to have a potentially great club in 2011. These are the signs of a team which has its main goal that of being fourth place in the AL East in 2010. And I don’t care about fourth place, and I don’t understand why anyone would.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So I guess the Astros are going to sign Feliz?
For 4.5 M they can have him. I would be pissed if the O’s signed him for that much. I thought he was going to get like 2.5 M.
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
love the hair weave reference
those ads ran when I was a kid – and I’m old!
by Dingbat Charlie on Dec 10, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PASS on Matsui
i wouldnt mind losing hernandez and berken.
"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'"
Earl Weaver
by matman008 on Dec 10, 2009 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind Uggla at all.
Especially considering what 25-30 hrs would plate hitting behind Roberts, Jones, and Markakis. I wouldn’t want to see Britton or Arrieta go but the Orioles need Uggla’s power. He also can fit in long term at DH if Scott gets traded.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 10, 2009 2:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Man, if we could add a 25-30 HR guy in this lineup....
we’d finish 3rd in the AL East!
Think of it….
1) B-Rob (2B)
2) Markakis (RF)
3) Uggla (3B)
4) Jones (CF)
5) Reimold (DH)
6) Wieters ©
7) Pie (LF)
8) 1B black hole
9) Izturis
That’s not a horrible lineup….
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
by duck on Dec 10, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense mate, but...
Tampa Bay:
1) Crawford (LF)
2) Upton (CF)
3) Zobrist (2b)
4) Longoria (3b)
5) Pena (1b)
6) Burrell or Bradley (DH)
7) Bartlett (SS)
8) Desmond Jennings/Matt Joyce (RF)
9) C black hole
And that’s with a rotation of Shields, Garza, Price, Davis, Neimann with Sonnastine, McGee and Hellickson in the wings. We’re not taking third without beating the PHN.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We;d certainly have a shot at beating Tampa. We can fix the 1B black hole with Luke Scott and have a legit lineup.
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That lineup has four of the 25 best offensive players in baseball last season
And that is with Upton, Pena, and Burrell all having well below average years.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Zorbist will decline, what he did last season was amazing, but not likely suistainable.
Longoria is awesome.
Carl Crawford had a career year, maybe he’ll stay that good, as he’s only 28, but it can’t be likely. He’ll still be good obviously.
Bartlett also had a career year, likely not to happen again.
On the other hand, several Orioles players I would pencil in for some serious improvement. Nick Markakis for 1. In 2008 he was incredible. Matt Weiters should improve dramatically next year. Adam Jones I think will improve as well, as his fielding goes back to something Average or above. Oh yeah, and Felix Pie was an extremely good player in limited playing time last year. He could be a real big asset as well. The Orioles are slowly stacking pieces for improvement.
Are they likely to be better than the Rays, no, but injuries and luck are big parts of baseball. The O’s have a shot.
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford simply is that good
The only two seasons when he hasn’t been a 4.5+ win player were 2007 and 2008. In 2007, that is entirely because he struggled badly and was below average in the field according to UZR – he still had one of his best ever offensive seasons. In 2008, his worst season, he was a 2.7 win player. This year, Uggla was a 2.8 win player, and he’s been less than a three win player in half his major league seasons. Zobrist and Bartlett should be balanced by the improvements to Pena and Upton.
I think our offense will improve next season, hopefully (to my mind) without Uggla, who’s a marginal bat at third and below average at DH in the AL. It is scary to say, but I suspect that the Rays offense overall will improve as well.
by James F on Dec 10, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
god I like Nicky in the 2 slot so much better
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
eh
i still like him at 3. i like him at 2 better than i like jones at 4 tho.
by twistedlogic on Dec 10, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not but third place in the east would be huge for this organization.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 10, 2009 4:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I’m guessing the Lowell to TEX deal opens PHN up to sign Beltre for a trillion dollars an inning. Feliz signed. So I think I’d just as soon see thr FatMaleStalker at 3B all year instead of wasting money on another stop gap.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
by BPinOK on Dec 10, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Joe Crede is the best we can do on FA with Beltre out of it.
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how much is crede going to be?
If it’s what Feliz got I might just vote for sticking Wiggy over there…
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crede may be cheaper, and he’s solid on defense.
Wiggy is absolutely terrible…. Decisions like putting Wiggy at 3rd base will set us back years because the defense will be terrible and that will hurt our pitching development.
I’ll pay Crede money and let the pitchers trust their defense
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if Crede is cheap
I’d be all for it. And Wiggy is definitely bad, but I don’t think it will really set us back years if he’s only over there for half a season. Not ideal of course, but not the end of the world.
by O'sFan21 on Dec 10, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crede will probably get close to Feliz money
and I think he’ll be worth it, esp if healthy. He’s a better bat and still a great glove.
Remember, we’re paying Wiggy $3.5M next year.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
NO
He wants multiple years, too much money, and he’s versatile so several teams are still chasing his old overrated ass. He’s not much better than Wiggy IMO.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Losing Steve Johnson is a blow. We’re not exactly in a position where we can avoid bleeding prospects. Are we sure we couldn’t keep him on the 40 man? Is protecting Rhyne Hughes, Pedro Florimon, Luis Lebron, Armando Gabino etc etc etc really that important?
UGH.
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 2:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I say 95% Johnson is back before the all star break.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 10, 2009 4:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
The only chance he sticks
Is if they hide him in the bullpen the way the twins held onto Johan Santana (I think the twins hid him in the bullpen in the first few years). But those roster spots are especially valuable in the NL.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 10, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Johnson doesn't matter.
He’s like number 20 in the list of pitchers we would go to, and he’s not Mussina or whateverthefuck people were saying on Roch’s blog.
"I'd like to do something. We all would here," he added. "As I've said before, you just don't want to do anything stupid that you're thinking in May, 'What in the God's green earth was I thinking about?'" - Andy MacPhail 12/8/09
by getxstoked on Dec 10, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Were people really comparing Steve Johnson to Mike Mussina?
WOW talk about a huge lack of reality.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly...
Some of the same people who are upset about this are probably the same ones who thought he was trash when he came to us. It’s homerism at its finest.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 10, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s a bigger piece than the players i named.
by math_geek on Dec 10, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
saw a rumor linking Fernando Rodney to the O's
urge to kill rising..
by Dingbat Charlie on Dec 10, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't hate this...
his closer theme could be ABBA “Fernando” and it would be pleasant.
What up?
by snakethejake on Dec 10, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well...
his ERA isn’t that good, his peripherals aren’t amazing (both ERA and FIP > 4.00 over the past 3 seasons) and he’s only been a closer for a season or so.
on the flip side, that means he won’t be overpriced like, say, Lyon, and he’s the kind of guy you take a chance on – you see a lot of guys like Grant Balfour and David Aardsma who had good stuff but terrible control suddenly put it all together. having a good closer is really a luxury for a rebuilding team, so going after a somewhat risky but very high-reward guy like Rodney is a pretty good move IMO (several sources including Jeff Zrebiec, IIRC, have him as our top relief target). who knows, if he racks up a lot of saves next season he could be a type B or type A free agent.
by ugen64 on Dec 11, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like him as a picher
I like his FB/CH combo, he has a low LD% and high GB%, and doesn’t give up many homers. He’d be a good pick up, but I agree we have other priorities.
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 11, 2009 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Does Buck Martinez qualify as a sloppy second?
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 10, 2009 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I really hope this doesn't mean more Rick Dempsey.
Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 10, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he makes the best spousal abuse jokes in the industry
If spousal abuse jokes can be qualified.
by Dr Orpheus on Dec 10, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know they can't
they’re too full of intangibles.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
by Andrew @ TLC on Dec 10, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, Horseface
I miss you. And your horseface.
by Dr Orpheus on Dec 10, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More Dave Johnson, hopefully?
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on Dec 11, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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