Josh Bell now and in the future.....
by QBsIllest1 on Dec 11, 2009 11:51 AM EST
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After seeing the thread discussing who is the better 3B prospect on Sickel's home site between Brett Wallace and Josh Bell, it got me thinking about a few things. Especially since that most people seem to be favoring Bell now.
During the time of that trade, I would have been happier with a return of Brett Wallace from the Cards a rather than the Bell return from the Dodgers. In that time since that trade, Bell has boosted his stock tremendously. He at the time was regarded as a fringe top 100 prospect, and now, after a bit less than half a season with Bowie and an AFL stint, he could be looking like a top 40 or top 30 slot. So first off, I'd like to say kudos to the scouts who watched Bell and saw his talent/potential and AM for making the trade happen. Since that trade, Bell went from being a good prospect to being on the verge of an elite prospect, and it came to my realization as I saw folks choosing Bell over Wallace who many said had the best bat in the 08 draft. Now, after seeing the two compared side by side basically I presently would choose Bell over Wallace even if I weren't an O's fan.
So I wanted to spark some discussion on Bell. Where do you guys see him being rated amongst the top 100 prospects once BA unveils their new list soon? Where do you see Bell at his peak before being promoted to the majors most likely in 2010 at some point? And what do you guys think sparked Bell's helium between the trade deadline and now?
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And to answer my own post....
Since it seemed out of place after I asked the questions, Ithink he falls somewhere around the 40th best prospect. At his peak before the promotion, I think he will be rated as high as 25th overall prospect, and the reason for his helium which is the question of which I really am interested to hear other’s opinions on IMO is a mixture of him having a breakout season, him also improving his conditioning and glove, working to improve his batting from the right side, and then showcasing it in the AFL after he made his name a bit better known…..
Have you been to Bowie?
If so, you should understand why someone would work his ass off to get out of there. People correcting you all the time saying “It’s Boooo-Eeeeee, not David BOWIE.” Yikes.
Smallsbury, anyone?
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
don't mess with Bowie
there’s nothing to speak of, other than a mall, but the park is great and people at the park are great as well.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
They also had
Bob Dylan, John Mellencamp, and Willie Nelson there in concert last summer (I went, it was really amazing). That’s a plus for me.
I thought that
was at the Frederick Keys stadium? Can’t believe I forget the name.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
I can never remember
what county it’s in.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
At the time...
…I really wanted Devaris Gordon from the Dodgers. Still do, kinda.
I think Bell will come be in the 50-70 range on most top 100 lists. Which is roughly where he belongs, IMO.
Bell
One thing that I think may have helped boost his stock was the vanquishing of the idea that he was a fat guy who was terrible at defense. He appears to have gotten himself in very good shape and the word is that he is a plus defender.
Questions about his ability to hit from the right side still linger, so hopefully he works hard on that phase of his game. We should see Bell (barring injury or sucktitude) by mid-season…September at the latest.
He will always have questions about his RH splits, and I don’t think the fact that he had some minor success this year in the AFL against LHP helped boost his stock by itself, but he made his name a bit better well known, and while the spotlight was on him in the AFL where he was one of the best prospects, he shined and actually improved tremendously upon his hitting of LHP. I bet that had some positive affect on his prospect status…..
Regardless, if he continues to work on hitting the LHP, I could see him becoming a pretty good all around 3B…..
i just want to say...
i saw him play up in portland, me this summer and he’s a monster. not awkward looking, and not fat, just a big guy. i’ve actually heard some comparisons to manny ramirez in terms of build. i don’t think that’s too far off the mark.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Dec 12, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Sickels put him at #4 in the O's system
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/12/4/1186174/baltimore-orioles-top-20-prospects
BP has him as the #2 Oriole prospect
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9752
So he’s top 50 if not top 100. I don’t follow the minors enough to rank him. His stock is certainly on the rise. I think we MIGHT see him this summer, but realistically, September. He still has AAA to conquer and while he’s certainly good, I don’t think he’s Wieters.
I like his bat, but..
I think it is his defense that is leading most people to say Bell is a better prospect than Wallace. People are concerned Wallace won’t be able to stay at 3B and Bell has pretty much proven he can stay there.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 11, 2009 4:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't get it...
wasn’t wallace one of the best prospects in baseball last year and bell wan an unknown? now all of a sudden bell is a future hall of famer? I’m skeptical still. I find it hard to believe we could get a future, abouve average 3B for a RP rental.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
re:
I find it hard to believe we could get a future, abouve average 3B for a RP rental.
So do I. But we all better hope we can, because without some lucky deals like this one might be we’re not going to compete in this division.
Under team control until 2012
That’s hardly a rental
by CoachOfEarl on Dec 12, 2009 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
True JP
but people keep referring to Bell as just a half to one season away. I’m not saying they need to go sign Beltre or anything but I’m tired of hearing how great Bell is going to be. I’ll go on record saying I think he’ll be a bust. He gets talked up b/c he’s the only hitting prospect and I can understand that to some extent.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
Thats a likely situation
The Orioles’ system is thin with position players so Bell gets talked up a lot.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 11, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
i'm glad i'm not the only one who thinks that
i didnt think he was that good when we got him and we continue to talk and project him to be pretty good. i dont think hes that good.
by twistedlogic on Dec 11, 2009 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
I thought that about me too
but it WAS getting a little ridiculous.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
How is it getting ridiculous? Right now we have a guy who is said to be an above average defender at 3B. He has tremendous bat speed and very good discipline at the plate. Look at the other 3B prospects in the minors and then you will see why he gets hyped up.
Now, I would like to mention though, there probably are some unrealistic expectations being placed on the guy, but he right now projects as a 25 HR guy with the upside for more(depends on how he develops his RH swing). But, a guy who will hit 25 HRs, give you a batting average .270-.280 with good discipline as an above average defender at 3B is a good prospect. Personally I have more faith in him than Snyder. I am not putting all my eggs into 1 basket with him, and any prospect can fall as quickly as they rise, but is there any logical reasoning as to why he will be a bust?
Yeah that is a good projection for him.
QBsIllest1: people on Minorleagueball do not understand what a great prospect Matusz is
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 12, 2009 2:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, I see that with Matusz. Its amazing…..The only “evidence” of Matusz not being able to even have a ceiling(let alone becoming) a future ace is because he doesn’t K enough batters. This being said when in his rookie season he K’d more than Roy Halladay almost ever does, and K’d a similar amount to that of CC and Felix Hernandez’s career averages. It gets to the point where it isn’t even worth trying to explain it anymore…….
fwiw...
i was at that game against cleveland in august where he k’d a shitload of injuns. i think once he gets a little more experience under his built, he’ll put up very in shape bedardian numbers. frankly, i think his curve is on par w/ bedard and he has much more well-rounded repertoire.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Dec 12, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah and he should be much better than Tes Lilly which is an awful comp.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 12, 2009 4:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t get the Lilly comp I agree. What is similar? Look at their minor league numbers, Matusz’s minor league numbers look like he was facing HS competition. He was absolutely too good for the leagues he pitched in.
IMO Matusz is a hard guy to find a good comp on since the combination of attributes he has are rare. He is like a crafty lefty with excellent stuff. He doesn’t have average stuff and great command or horrid command and fanastic stuff, he has both.
Can’t really compare him to Hamels, he has more good pitches. Lilly I don’t know if he has more than 1 plus pitch. Cliff Lee is IMO the best comp for Matusz, 4 pitches, low 90 velocity, great command and pitchability, and he is a #1 SP in my book.
I am honestly just looking for a true reason Matusz doesn’t have a ceiling of a #1, and am unable to find a logical reason. You do not need to throw 97 MPH to be an ace.
IIRC
There was a knock on his fastball movement that had people pushing his ceiling down. But I think that concern has been answered.
I think a lot of the concern at Sickels’ site is due to anchoring on his scouting reports from before the draft. Folks loved his polish but questioned his pro upside before the draft. IMO, his ability to miss bats was thoroughly established in Bowie and Baltimore. He’s the consensus #2 pitching prospect out there and the #1 lefty by a wide margin. I don’t think that Sickels’ grade makes much of a difference either way, but I suspect that anchoring is what is causing the moderate resistance to the A grade in the comments there.
How is it getting ridiculous?
Read above.
Personally I have more faith in him than Snyder.
Way to go out on a limb.
is there any logical reasoning as to why he will be a bust?
I find it hard to believe we will end up with a perennial allstar for a couple months of George Sherrill. The Os have shit hitting prospects now and he just happens to be the best (i guess) of the heap.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
Is he?
I guess I had it wrong. Nevermind. That makes it all better. I fully expect Josh Bell to be inducted into the hall someday now.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
haha
Well I mean it is entirely different. Getting a cheap dominant left handed reliever that will remain relatively cheap and under contractual control for 3 full seasons is nothing to scoff at.
yeah, i know
just messing around. i didn’t realize it was that long. then i thought i read they were going to move him but i guess they’d get something in return for that too.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
He was just waiting to be an Oriole
Hoping he would come to Baltimore before he showed his true potential
Wallace is now on the Jays!
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects and discuss the Orioles' prospects in my forums
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 15, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions
Anyone else read the Melewski piece on Bowie?
http://masnsports.com/2009/12/looking-back-at-the-2009-bowie.html
Brad Komminsk kind of shits on Bell a bit here. That’s the most negative statement I’ve seen on Bell’s switch-hitting and attitude yet, and for it to come from his manager? Ouch.
Ditch the switch?
Maybe I read the article differently, but he liked Bell. Felt he could play 3B just fine. He did feel he should drop the switch hitting. That’s okay, and wouldn’t bother me. Let him try some more switch hitting at Norfolk. If it doesn’t work, then simply hit left handed. What’s the big deal? He apparently hits very well left handed.
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