How Markakis went from a 6.2 WAR to a 2.2 WAR

by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 11, 2009 11:00 PM EST

Nick Markakis' 2009 season was really nothing spectacular and was a huge drop off from his 2008 season. His AVG dropped 13 points, his OPS dropped 96 points and his walk rate decreased by 6%, although his strikeout rate did decrease. After improving each year in his first 3 seasons, 2009 was a down year. I am not saying it was a bad year but it was a down year.

A few factors to his decrease of offense production could be:

His decreased line drive percent - 2008: 21.1% 2009: 16.6%

His increased fly ball percent - 2008: 32.9% 2009: 40.6%

Outside strikezone swing oercent - 2008: 18.0% 2009: 23.0%

In 2008, according to fangraphs, Markakis killed fastballs for 24.5 runs above average but in 2009 he was at only 8.6 runs above average.

Why did Markakis' walk rate drop? Was he trying to play better towards his new contract? What can we expect form him in 2010?

Poll

What will Markakis' OPS be in 2010?

.780-.809

5 votes

.810-.839

6 votes

.840-.869

19 votes

.870-.899

20 votes

.900-.929

11 votes

61 votes | Poll has closed

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I just really want to see his OBP go up

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by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 11, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions

I don't know that I'd put too much stock...

…in the line drive/fly ball percentages. Remember that this data is the result of an eyeball witness deciding which is which, and that analyst may not be the same person from game to game or year to year.

To a degree, I suspect that his walk rate decreased to a degree because he no longer had an effective Aubrey Huff hitting behind him. I also think he ran into some bad luck – his BABIP was .317, lower than his numbers in 2008 and 2007, and his HR/FB was 2% lower than it had ever been before in his career. Like Adam Jones, however, Markakis’ groundball rate went way up last season, and that’s concerning. It makes me wonder if something was wrong with his swing for much of the 2009 season.

Obviously it will be of great importance that his walk rate improve. Hopefully, we’ll find someone who can give Markakis some better protection in the lineup.

by James F on Dec 11, 2009 11:46 PM EST reply actions

I want to also suggest

that Markakis (and Jones) felt the pressure of being the cornerstones of the lineup and basically let their game get away from them. As in, they tried too hard to carry the team because they saw, as you and I did, that nobody else was gonna do it. Putting Nick in the 3 and 4 hole didn’t help in my theoretical scenario, either.

Or, more likely, it was just a down year. It happens.

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by Andrew_G on Dec 12, 2009 12:47 AM EST reply actions

As the talent around him

continues to improve, I think we could see a resurgence from Nick. Some people don’t value lineup protection, but in this case I really think that with less pressure directly on him Nick could regain his patience and take a better approach on a daily basis.

He knows that last year wasn’t his best. Remember people, he reads the papers!!

by sickuvitall on Dec 12, 2009 2:39 AM EST reply actions

I completely agree. He is a stud that will benefit from breakout seasons of Reimold, Wieters, and Jones. Once he realizes he doesn’t have to do it all himself he will be an allstar caliber player IMO

by Garyland1177 on Dec 15, 2009 5:33 AM EST up reply actions