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Non-tendered players who the O's could target

Tonight is the deadline for teams to tender a contract to players still under team control without a guaranteed contract for 2010.  Which means that tomorrow, many new free agents will emerge, many of them younger than the options which already were on the market.

Generally, most of these players will not be offered a contract because they had performance and/or injury problems in 2009, although a few will just be more expensive than their perceived value.  But for most of them, there are recent seasons of excellent performance, making them high risk, high upside signings for another club.

Star-divide

3b Garrett Atkins:Most of us know about him already.  With Pedro Feliz off the market, Atkins looks like the Orioles' #1 target to hold down third base until Josh Bell is ready. 

Pros: Plays 3b, a clear position of need.  Isn't coming off a major injury - in fact, has been quite durable throughout his career, playing in over 120 games every season.  Even with his horrible year at the plate last season, walked in over 10% of his at-bats, something he has done three of the last four seasons.  Right-handed hitter with power, something the Orioles are in need of. 

Cons: Had a terrible year with the bat in 2009, and since it wasn't due to injury, it is even more questionable.  His poor batting performance can be mitigated somewhat due to his BABIP of .247, his only season with a BABIP lower than .310.  On the other hand, has been steadily getting worse on offense since his breakout 2006 season, and was a better hitter at Coors Field than on the road.  Not a great defender either, having a negative UZR every season in the majors, although he has improved in this regard each of the last two seasons and had a UZR/150 of only -0.7 last season.  Has started 75 games at first base in his major league career, so he'd be able to move across the diamond if Bell takes over at third, but has a career UZR/150 of -6.3 - he's been worse at first than at third.

SP Chien-Ming Wang: Most of us known him pretty well too - he's beaten us a lot over the years.  The Yankees, being the Yankees, decided not to offer a contract to the two-time 19 game winner and their #2 starter going into 2009.

Pros: Has a great history of success in the AL East, is an excellent sinkerball pitcher when healthy, will want revenge on Evil Empire who paid him peanuts when he was winning games for them and dumped him as he tries to come back from a season and a half lost to injuries.

Cons: If the Yankees of all teams don't believe he was worth paying a couple million dollars, they probably have good reason to believe that he's not going to pitch effectively this year.  Might need to be paid like the #2 his win totals make him look like, and not the #3 or 4 that he is.

RP Matt Capps: The Pirates non-tendering Capps was one of the bigger surprises yesterday.  Capps did effective work as the Pirates closer in 2007 and 2008 before suffering through a lousy 2009, putting up an ERA of 5.80

Pros: Like Atkins, Capps is one of a few non-tenders who didn't suffer from a major injury in 2009.  Moreover, his peripherals aren't as bad as his 2009 performance was.  His FIP was nearly a full run below his ERA, and his xFIP was even lower.  His strikeout rate was the best of his career, and he matched his career-best groundball percentage while giving up fewer line drives in years past.  His poor 2009 was largely the product of a massive increase in his BABIP and in his HR/9.  But his high HR/9 can partially be credited to an extremely high HR/FB rate - 13.5%, over 5% more than his career average.

Cons: While the HR/FB rate is way above his career average, he's had another season with a HR/FB rate of over 12%, so it may be less a bad luck issue than it appears.  And his control disintegrated in 2009 - his BB/9 was 2.82, more than a full walk worse than his career average.  Being cut by the Pirates doesn't exactly lend itself to optimism either.

RPs Adam Miller and Jose Arredondo: This pair of hard-throwing right handed relievers are both unlikely to pitch in 2010.  Arrendondo is sure to miss the season with Tommy John surgery; the Indians' former #1 prospect Miller has had several surgeries on the middle finger of his pitching hand and may never recover.

Pros: Both are hard throwers with a history of high performance and missing bats.  Both will likely miss 2010 and could rehab with the O's with an eye towards 2011 without taking up a roster spot.

Cons: Arredondo has a very short history of success and won't pitch in 2010, meaning that someone will be paying him to rehab.  Miller may well be finished after his fourth surgery.

OF Jonny Gomes: The former Ray was non-tendered by the Reds for some reason.  I'm sure Dusty Baker is behind it.

Pros: Had a wOBA of .373 in 314 plate appearances in 2009.  Mashes lefties.  Despite poor career fielding numbers, had a 2.2 URZ/150 in 37 games in left field for the Reds.  Could free up the Orioles to trade Nolan Reimold or Luke Scott.

Cons: Nice year with the bat ought to be adjusted somewhat for the bandbox of a park in Cincy (although wOBA takes park factors into consideration).  Career strikeout rate of 32.2% is a danger sign.  Doesn't have a position on the Orioles barring a trade.

Other candidates who might be considered by the Orioles are former bird Jack Cust and Ryan Garko, but both are well known quantities.  Who among these players would you like to see the Orioles pursue this offseason?

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Comments

Display:

I like Capps and Wang

Caps and wang…shit.

Anyway, I’m still a fan of trading for Kouzmanoff. He, Matt Capps, and Chien-Ming Wang would fill question marks on the Os roster for 2010. So would Bedard though, and Bedard could, some say, be ready a full month before Wang.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 13, 2009 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

If we would trade

Nolan Reimold and insert Jonny Gomes in LF, I may strangle nuns.

Garrett Atkins isn’t enough of an improvement over Wiggi to make him worth our time/money.

Wang: No. That guy will never again win 9 games, much less 19.

Matt Capps is the only one on this list that I would even consider. And even that might be a crummy idea.

by sickuvitall on Dec 13, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions  

I could see getting

Gomes to platoon on DH. If he’s cheap enough.

by Jonny Pops on Dec 13, 2009 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

Trade Reimold?

That seems very un-Andy, and it would make me a sad panda.

When you're born into the human race you're given a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you're given a front row seat. And some of us have notepads.-George Carlin

by Afghanistan Steve on Dec 13, 2009 12:19 PM EST reply actions  

I like Reimold a lot too

But when I look at our young core and think about who is the most expendable, he’s the one. He has a history of getting hurt, plays a position where we have another young player, and is easily replaceable through free agency. I doubt we will trade him, and I doubt we’ll make a major trade at all. But if we did, I see Reimold as more expendable than Tillman/Arrieta/Erbe.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

He has a history of getting hurt?

What injuries has he had? Random fluky things or consistent nagging ones? He seems pretty tough. The achilles is now taken care of right?

by O'sFan21 on Dec 13, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

plays a position where we have another young player

Are you suggesting Pie here?

Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt

by BPinOK on Dec 13, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d hate to move Reimold and hope Pie can finally put it together like he’s only shown for a couple of months. But I’m partial to Nolan.

Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt

by BPinOK on Dec 13, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Pie should start in left

And Reimold should DH and scott should be traded. If you take Pies stats and put them to around 525 ABs they are pretty good.

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Dec 13, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I dislike that plan...

…mostly because I think you’d be selling low on Luke.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Selling low?

Only if you expect his stock to rise. Do you? He’s not young – don’t you think what you see is what you get with him?

by O'sFan21 on Dec 13, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd hate it too...

…but I’d hate to miss out on a chance to make the team much better if it presents itself.

Reimold is a good player. But he isn’t untouchable in my opinion.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Reimold is a good player. But he isn’t untouchable in my opinion.

No doubt. I just don’t like Pie that much and think you’d be creating a bigger hole in LF.

Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt

by BPinOK on Dec 13, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I'm not suggesting it...

…just saying that it would be more of an option if the O’s signed Jonny Gomes, which I don’t expect them to do.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

just a question

why are we even talking about destroying a young core of players to sign some crappy free agents?

by twistedlogic on Dec 13, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions  

We aren't

What we’ve been talking about, repeatedly, is a host of stars and/or prospects from other teams that we’d like to acquire. And in all those conversations, we’ve mentioned various young players that we’d be willing to trade for people like Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Johnson, Justin Smoak, and so on. Now, many of those kinds of players won’t be available at all, and those that are might be much more expensive in terms of prospects than we’d like to part with.

But that sort of scenario is obviously the only reason we’d be willing to talk about trading Nolan Reimold – it wouldn’t be to clear a spot for Jonny Gomes, obviously.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Justin Smoak?

He’s still just a prospect himself. Doesn’t really fit into a sentence with Adrian Gonzalez or Josh Johnson.

Besides that, trading for Gonzalez is a horrible idea. It’d take a monster package to get him for just two years and there is no guarantee that he’d sign an extension. Beyond that the players to get Gonzalez would start with Adam Jones or Brian Matusz, not Nolan Reimold.

by Stacey on Dec 13, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

100% true

The Orioles should trade for Gonzo now. If hes a free agent in 2 years I think we should go for him if 1B is still a need.

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Dec 13, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh

I’d think that seven years of Smoak definitely belongs in a sentence with two years of Johnson or Gonzalez. It is a different way of looking at value, but I think that of those three players, Smoak is the most attractive target for the Orioles (not that Smoak is available at any price that I know of).

I agree that trading for Gonzalez is a bad idea. I wasn’t proposing a deal; just mentioning some of the names that have been mentioned here recently that I’ve seen. That said, if there is an attractive trade option, I think that of our young players, Reimold is the most obviously expendable to us of the group.

But I have no objection – heck, I might even prefer – with the Orioles not making any major trades, filling out the roster with whichever free agents will take a one-year deal, and seeing what happens.

by James F on Dec 13, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

this.
But I have no objection – heck, I might even prefer – with the Orioles not making any major trades, filling out the roster with whichever free agents will take a one-year deal, and seeing what happens.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Dec 14, 2009 1:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Matt Capps.

The rest I can do without. Especially Atkins or Garko. Do either of them represent a significant enough upgrade over Wigginton/Michael Aubrey to actually pay any money for? I don’t really think so.

"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008

Adam Jones is the tits.

by KenDixonFanClub on Dec 13, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

I'd love to get capps

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Dec 13, 2009 12:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

He had a bad year last year

But his previous years were good. Im hoping he can return to that form

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

Follow me on twitter @orioleprospects

by ravensfan3 on Dec 13, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep in mind...

Capps is used to the ‘powerful’ lineups of the NL Central, and of the NL in the general (excluding some of the Cardinals’ actually powerful lineup). Some pinch hitters (typical hitters you see in 8th and 9th inning, especially with pitchers batting) in the NL central couldn’t even hold a jock to some of the bats in the AL East.

by jirwin on Dec 13, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions  

I would pay to rehab Arredondo

He could be closer candidate in 2011.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Dec 13, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions  

reminder

that every orioles world series win was accomplished before the rise of the closer. what does this mean? absolutely nothing. so does the closer. he does not exist in a high leverage situation and if you use your best reliever there you invite disaster and the disfavor of your ancestors.

by ripkenis8 on Dec 14, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions  

Eh

The Yanks have done pretty well with their closer…

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

true

but then again mariano rivera has literally the best single pitch of all time and is a first ballot hall of famer. you could pitch him anywhere and he’d be that guy too

by ripkenis8 on Dec 14, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe

I don’t think he would have near the impact anywhere other than closer.

by O'sFan21 on Dec 14, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

in narrative terms, sure

but in terms of leverage, he was only in high leverage situations about half the time in his career, though expecting MLB managers to properly evaluate that even in 2009 is, uh, stretching

by ripkenis8 on Dec 15, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

i’ll take “None of the above” for 200 Trebek. ….

by bigity b on Dec 14, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

Ryan Garko

He was Non Tendered by the Giants and could be a stopgap at 1B until Snyder is ready.

by Gobroks on Dec 16, 2009 12:15 AM EST reply actions  

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