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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Rumor: Orioles interested in Matt Holliday

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report that the Orioles are pursuing, at some level, Matt Holliday

The Orioles have jumped into the bidding, though both the seriousness of their efforts and Holliday’s desire to play in Baltimore are in question, major-league sources say. 

Holliday, 29, is unlikely to go to the Orioles — a team coming off 12 straight losing seasons — unless they make him a much stronger offer than the Cardinals

The article details a number of reasons Holliday to the O's makes sense, including the O's young talent, their low payroll, and the fact that Holliday and new Oriole Garrett Atkins are BFF. 

I think everyone would agree that, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea, the chance of Holliday coming to the O's is a long shot at best. Unfortunately for Scott Boras and Matt Holliday, neither the Yankees or Red Sox seem interested in signing the left fielder. It's possible that the Cardinals are bidding against themselves right now and somebody put the word out there that the Orioles are in it to give the illusion that there is more demand than actually exists. 

If the Orioles are legitimately interested in Matt Holliday, I personally don't think it's a good idea. It's not that I think he's not a good player; he's obviously quite good. But he's going to cost a ton of money and he plays the outfield. Of all the problems the Orioles currently have, the outfield isn't one. The rumored offer on the table from the Cardinals is 5 years at $16M/year, and you'd have to think the O's would need to go beyond that to get Holliday to Baltimore. With Nick Markakis and Adam Jones anchored in the outfield, Nolan Reimold not far behind, and Felix Pie ready to pick up any slack, that's $16M a year that would be much better served filling the O's needs in the infield or to continue to build up the pitching staff. 

Of course, signing Holliday would provide the Orioles with the flexibility to trade Reimold or move him to DH. I don't know what kind of trade value he'd have right now as he's had part of one successful major league season and is coming off injury. But moving him to DH would allow Luke Scott to be traded, or if not, put at 1B on a regular basis. Holliday could also DH some to give Pie time in the outfield. I mean, it does open up possibilities. 

But $16M a year for an outfielder? Count me out. 

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There's wisdom in thar

More than anything, this feels like a move focused on the fan base. Andy is showing that he’s willing to do his due diligence. And, really, who can blame him?

I’m sure he didn’t want to sign Atkins, but what other options does he have? He and Adrian Beltre are the only right-handed, power-hitting third baseman on the market, and, based on what I’ve seen, Beltre is going to sign with either the Red Sox or resign with the Mariners. With those odds, Atkins makes some sense.

A bid on Holliday, on the other hand, seems like posturing and an attempt to get the fan base excited again. While I agree with Stacey’s opinion that he would cause more disunity (my words) in the line up than he’s worth, he would also represent massive power potential if seated directly behind Markakis in the line up. And for that potential, I hope that if this doesn’t work out, it’ll show next off seasons free agents that he means business.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 17, 2009 1:47 AM EST reply actions  

Can he play first?

I think the Cardinals first baseman is the free agent that I want, not that it’ll ever happen. Holliday makes little to no sense. And plus he sucked in the AL.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Dec 17, 2009 2:03 AM EST reply actions  

he started slow but he had heated up in OAK when they traded him. plus, he was in oak.

Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt

by BPinOK on Dec 17, 2009 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

I've heard worse ideas

I don’t love it, but if the front office is going to go bonkers, there are worse players to do it for. And it isn’t a bad idea to sign more than one Type A free agent if you’re going to sign any at all.

by James F on Dec 17, 2009 2:17 AM EST reply actions  

Red Sox don't want him

They already signed Mike Cameron for two years. Yankees say they don’t want him but that sure as hell doesn’t mean anything.

by Stacey on Dec 17, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions  

that means they want him

remember when they said they were going to pull out of the bidding war for teixiera?

by twistedlogic on Dec 17, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah,

get on Boras’s good side.

Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey

by jobe on Dec 17, 2009 2:45 AM EST up reply actions  

You know what's weird?

I couldn’t fall asleep earlier and I had in my thoughts, “Not that it’s the greatest of ideas, but I wonder if Andy will attempt to bid for Holliday since we have Atkins.” I wake up and the first thing I see is this rumor…weird. I won’t complain if we do it, but I wouldn’t. I would force him to play first :) haha

by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 17, 2009 2:41 AM EST reply actions  

The more I think about this, the more I like it

People talk about how bad Holliday was with the A’s, but he had an OPS+ of 120 there, all while adjusting to a new league. As far as free agent hitters go, he’s pretty young – 2010 will be his age 30 season. We’re looking for an elite, right-handed cleanup hitter. Well, Holliday is one. Not only that, but he’s the most attractive bat available both this offseason and next. The 2011 class has elite bats with team options that are a virtual lock, like Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins, and lesser options like Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee. And that’s it.

The philosophy is grow the arms and buy the bats, and not the other way around. Holliday is the best bat out there, both now and in the near future. Having Holliday makes the growing pains of Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder a lot more palatable, and gives us the ability to use Reimold as an elite trade chip or Pie as a lesser one. And the market for Holliday has looked soft so far. Maybe we grab him for merely $16 million for six, or better yet $20 for four. It is certainly worth exploring.

by James F on Dec 17, 2009 2:49 AM EST reply actions  

Who cares what position he plays

There will be an Adam LaRoche at 1B every year. Let’s just add talent and a legit cleanup hitter. The market is pretty light right now and I assume that is why Andy is getting involved. 5 years at 16.5 isn’t the worst deal I’ve ever seen.

Bring him in. Deal Scott or Reimold for pitching, put the other at 1B/DH. Look into nick Johnson/Delgado if they want to come cheap. Sign Bedard. I’d love this offseason if we did those things.

by Mr. E on Dec 17, 2009 3:03 AM EST reply actions  

On face value...

I agree this move seems redundant and unnecessary given what we have in the OF rght now. But I think we need to be honest with ourselves that we’re not the most desirable place for FAs to sign. That being the case, if & when we can get ahold of a top FA it might be a good idea to do so then use the other OFs for trades. The nice thing about trades for us is the player has no say in the matter barring a NTC.

by Jonny Pops on Dec 17, 2009 6:30 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

My first thought is....

ODF isn’t an area of need, but Holliday sure would be an upgrade. We’d be able to keep Pie as the backup for all 3 fields, move Nolan to DH and get him some reps at 1B, and add serious pop to the lineup. At some point, if you have a chance to get betterm you take it. OF my not be our most serious need, but at the moment, with this possibility, it’s the area where we can improve ourselves the most.

"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White

by duck on Dec 17, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions  

we could sign him

  then trade scott pie and move riemold to 1st wiggy as a dh

by chuckthefan on Dec 17, 2009 6:31 AM EST reply actions  

Who's Scott Pie?

"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson

by Brotz13 on Dec 17, 2009 8:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Cousin of

LEROY JENKINS!!!!!!

A good cigar is like a beautiful chick with a great body who also knows the American League box scores. ~M*A*S*H, Klinger, "Bug-Out," 1976

by Birdland in NC on Dec 17, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Sounds planted to me

The O’s don’t need an outfielder and I find it hard to believe that Holliday would want to change positions. This sounds like a classic Boras planted story. He did the same thing with the Giants and Manny last year. He’s trying to plant a rumour. The O’s gain nothing by calling him out, so why risk pissing him off?

by uneasy rider on Dec 17, 2009 9:01 AM EST reply actions  

He’s trying to plant a rumour.

I don’t think it’s true in this case because 1) he would have picked a better fake team than the O’s like the Mets and 2) the rumor would have came from Jon Heyman.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Dec 17, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok I so I've been thinking about this on and off all night

Because 1) I’m a dork, and 2) I didn’t sleep, and here’s what I think.

The first thing is I don’t think this is ever going to be a reality. Either the O’s are interested but won’t be willing to pony up the cash needed (depending upon the amount that could be a good or bad thing), or the O’s are feigning interest, or Boras is just trying to put pressure on the Cardinals.

However, if it happened, I think I’d be on board. Like JP said, it would be a real actual valuable FA agreeing to come here. That could go a long way. For another, it does give the O’s a lot more options. Yeah, we have a lot of good outfielders. But with Holliday you’ll get power that we don’t have. It’ll allow Reimold to slide into the DH slot and then that problem is solved. Pie will still be able to get plenty of playing time between CF, LF, DH, and Adam Jones’ getting injured. If you find a viable option for 1B you can trade Luke Scott without issue, and if you don’t you can stick him there until there is a better market for him or until a 1B solution (Snyder maybe? who knows) comes along.

My knee jerk reaction last night was to be anti, but I could come around.

But like I said, I can’t imagine it happening.

by Stacey on Dec 17, 2009 9:44 AM EST reply actions  

I'll take him

I don’t see it happening either, but having too many good OFs is a problem I’d like to have.

If MacPhail is serious and this isn’t just a plant by Boras, he’s thinking that it is going to be a rare time that we can pick up a hitter like Holliday without having to outbid the Yanks and Sox. I’d do it. The guy is practically a guaranteed .900 OPS and has plenty of peak years left.

It gives us flexibility in making deals in the future…maybe even the short term. Would it be crazy to think we would sign Holliday and then include Reimold in a deal for Gonzalez?

by silverstadium on Dec 17, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

The whole Gonzalez thing

I don’t see it happening, not even close. First of all they’re going to want Matusz or Jones, maybe both. No way in hell I’d give them Matusz, and I feel just about .000001% less strongly about AJ.

by Stacey on Dec 17, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, you're right

Just dreaming for a minute there. I think if we included Tillman or Matusz with Reimold and some 2nd tier prospects, we could make it happen, but I don’t think it’s worth losing one of our two big starters.

by silverstadium on Dec 17, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

it is going to be a rare time that we can pick up a hitter like Holliday without having to outbid the Yanks and Sox.

excellent point.

"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic

by zknower on Dec 17, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

But we’ll have to outbid the Cards. And outbid them significantly. This will never happen.

Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.

by birdman on Dec 17, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

What has gotten into MacPhail?

I’ve been trying to make sense of this new Birdland that has emerged in the last 24 hours. Here’s my theory.

Remember MacPhail saying at the end of the season that, from here on out, he should be judged on wins and losses? I and others have still thought of 2010 as a rebuilding year…hopefully the last before we make a playoff run in 2011. But what if he wants to make a run in 2010?

Holliday would certainly give us the offense to compete in the East and will help us years into the future. Atkins was just to help lure Holliday. Gonzalez is one of the best relievers on the market, even if we did overpay. But there again—why overpay if you’re not thinking of contending?

The big hole, of course, is starting pitching. I’m okay with a guy like Milwood as a 4th/5th starter eating innings and taking some heat off the bullpen and the other starters if he can keep his ERA under 5. But we simply don’t have the rotation to really compete.

My first instinct is that the Holliday story is a bogus plant and the Atkins and Gonzalez signings were just wrong-headed. But maybe there’s something more here.

by silverstadium on Dec 17, 2009 10:01 AM EST reply actions  

I'll take it

I thought hw played some 1b too in high school but that was long ago and the memory isn’t treating me too well anymore(I used to b a big college football fan and holliday was top ranked qb after his senior yr). Anyway, if he doesn’t we can still slide reimold to 1st or DH. If we can get reimold to 1st, Scott becomes expendable and let’s be honest- he’s our most valuable trade chip that’s available.

That could lead to a potential trade with a salary heavy team looking to dump payroll. There aren’t many ppl avail next year in free agency pitching or hitting. To be fair, a 4 yr deal doesn’t impact our young kids contracts in ANY negative way— but tell me this, if holliday comes and were more competitive than we would have been ( essentially your argument is that Luke Scott is the same player as holliday), wouldn’t you think the likelihood of resigning the young kids+ adding FA goes up?

by GeoffreyA on Dec 17, 2009 10:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

A few possible

I’d take Adam Dunn for DH. We should have signed him last year.

It will be interesting to see what the market for Crawford is like.

There are a lot of starters that could be a fit. I agree with MacPhail’s “pay for hitting, develop pitching” strategy, but we’re still going to need one reliable veteran to pitch lots of innings and keep an ERA under 4 (as opposed to Millwood who hopefully will keep his under 5). Beckett or Lee would work nicely, though both will be pricey. Javy Vazquez is getting up there, but he might be good for a couple years. I wonder how Webb will recover from his injury.

All that aside, there is simply no one who can rake like Holliday next year. Let’s get him.

by silverstadium on Dec 17, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

AS far as pitchers

I think a lot depends on what happens this year. If Matusz and Tillman dominate and Bergy continues his success and Arrieta comes up and pitches ok the equation is completely different than if we have a couple injuries or guys shitting the bed.

by O'sFan21 on Dec 17, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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