On the Gonzalez signing: What is the real value of a 2nd round draft pick?

clearly the bullpen has been struggling for the last few years. instead of drafting yet another guy and stockpiling even more young arms, why not just go for the instant gratification of a guy who will probably end up performing better than a second rounder anyway?

The problem is that one of the most significant assets a baseball franchise has are its minor league players. Yes, one of the ways that teams utilize these assets is by developing them into major league talent internally. But another significant use of prospects is on the trade market.

Take a look at the MLBTR series “Trades of the decade”:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/discussion-the-trade-of-the-decade.html

Now, look at the players involved. Half of the players traded to the Mariners for Griffey never made the majors. One of the four players sent to Pittsburgh in the Ramirez/Bay three way deal has never made the majors and two more are marginal contributors at best. Two of the four prospects the Marlins received for Josh Beckett are not major league players, as is one of the five the Rangers acquired for Teixeira. And these are just the biggest deals of the last ten years.

Jason Knapp, one of the key pieces in the deal that sent Cliff Lee to Philly, was a 2008 second round pick. So was Jess Todd in 2007, one of the pieces in the deal that brought Matt Holliday to the Cards. So was Chris Tillman in 2006. So was Jeff Locke, one of the key pieces in the deal that brought Nate McLouth to Atlanta, and Brent Anderson, one of the keys to the Dan Haren trade, and Justin Masterson from the Victor Martinez deal. And that’s disregarding top prospects who are still with the team that drafted them like Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Freddie Freeman of the Braves, Austin Romine of the Yankees, and James Darnell of the Padres, all of whom might be busts in the majors but have a lot of trade value right now. In fact, looking at the 2008 second round class, nearly all of them have a lot of trade value: Kyle Lobstein, Anthony Gose, Destin Hood, Robbie Ross, Tyler Ladendorf (already dealt to acquire Orlando Cabrera), Zeke Spruill, Derrick Gibson and Charles Blackmon are all players on their respective teams top 20 prospect lists.

So maybe the person we take in the second round doesn’t make the big leagues or doesn’t make an impact when they do. But they could be the lead prospect in a deal bringing us a Victor Martinez, or a Cliff Lee, or an Adrian Gonzalez for that matter. And they could have been that prospect in one year, ready to bring us a superstar when we’re looking to contend in 2011. And that’s my problem with giving up the pick for Gonzalez. We’re making it harder to get the great player we need soon to get the good player we don’t have much use for now.

whether we contend or not in 2010. We’ve seen 30-3. We’ve seen the meltdowns post-Sherrill. I believe those things wear on a team’s psyche (not to mention a fan’s psyche). It’s losing plus the added burden of losing when ahead. Not to mention that absent a true closer you can damage the confidence of relievers who wind up misplaced in their respective roles. The benefit of a quality closer extends beyond that pitcher to the rest of the bullpen as well.

the question is which is more valuable: Mike Gonzalez or our second rounder this year plus the opportunity to acquire someone else. Here’s why I think the latter is more valuable.

A lot of the talk about Gonzalez’s positives are how he “settles the bullpen” and lines everyone up (or whatever). But Jim Johnson could just as easily been the closer in 2010 and probably done a pretty darn good job at it, too. So we’re giving up the money and draft pick to basically move Dennis Sarfate out of the bullpen, essentially replacing the replacement level Sarfate with Jim Johnson (and Johnson with Gonzalez), which will probably net us something like a win.

 Even if you don’t want to use WAR or other advanced metrics (your loss), you have to acknowledge that a) Gonzalez is not significantly better than Johnson, and b) the impact difference between any two relievers, regardless of how much better one is than the other just doesn’t amount to much. Maybe in your mind it’s a win and a half difference now. Maybe it’s one win. But it isn’t a big difference, really (though of course every win means something). And so we’re giving up a second round draft pick for “not a massive difference”.

And we could have replaced Sarfate with an arm in a lot of ways that didn’t come with the cost of any draft picks (internal options or the completely overlooked Kiko Calero) which could have also easily netted a similar type of improvement in terms of wins.

In other words, the Orioles gave up a draft pick – which even if you don’t consider especially valuable definitely is still valuable – for the name-value of a “proven closer” when a lesser option would have provided similar value for less cost. And therefore it is an obvious overpayment, and for a team that still projects to win 75ish games this year (barring other moves) it was foolhardy, even if it doesn’t exactly set the Orioles back in any truly meaningful way.

the O’s have the third pick in the draft, and by forgoing the 2nd round pick they’ll be able to concentrate on signing that prospect + dedicate the bonus money they spent there to the 1st round.

I think this is a smart move overall, and closers are hard to come by — and i don’t think we have anyone on staff that can grow into the role in the next couple years.