When the Orioles signed Type-A free agent Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M contract on Wednesday, one of the major concerns of many was the loss of the Orioles 2nd round draft pick in 2010. My first inclination was to agree, but after thinking about it for awhile I realized I had no idea the actual value of a second round draft pick. What is the likelihood of a 2nd round draft pick not only reaching the majors but having a significant impact? How does a team leverage that against the value they can get from the free agent, in this case "just" a relief pitcher (albeit one with a very good track record)?

To find some answers, I did what I usually do: I went to Baseball Reference. Using their draft section, I looked at every 2nd round draft pick from 1985 to 2001. I'd planned on using 20 years of data but frankly, once I got to 17 it seemed that I had enough (read: I was tired of looking at it). 

From 1985 to 2001 there were 506 second round draft picks. Of those, 262 (51.78%) never saw a day in the MLB. Of the remaining 244, 14 didn't sign but were re-drafted in the future and eventually made it to the MLB. That leaves 230 (45.45%) of the draftees who signed and eventually had an appearance in the MLB. 

45% is a decent chance, but that includes players who possibly spent just 1 day on a big league team. When all players who played less than 100 games are removed, the total drops to just 22.92%, 49 pitchers and 67 position players. The list includes a few great players (Randy Johnson) and a number of solid players (Carlos Beltran), but also plenty of the Freddie Bynum variety. 

So at what point is the trade-off worth it? Is it ever worth it for a relief pitcher? And if the Orioles aren't intended to compete in 2010, does it even matter? The argument could be made that a 2nd round draft pick with even just a 23% chance of making 100 major league appearances is more beneficial to the future of this team than a reliever who might be gone after 2011.

I'm not sure I buy that, though. If 2011 is indeed the year that the Orioles are supposed to make their big move into the pennant race, winning in 2010 is important as well. It's important for the young players who are developing, it's important when trying to land free agents, it's important to show the players that 2010 isn't another year to roll over. Opponents of this thought process will counter with the fact that adding Gonzalez might get the Orioles a few wins, but that's it. And what good will that do? 

I think it all comes down to philosophy. The Gonzalez signing and the Millwood trade are, to me, a sign of a different Andy MacPhail. With phase one over, this is how he is tackling phase two. He decided that the benefits of Mike Gonzalez outweigh the potential of next year's 2nd round draft pick. And given the numbers, I can see his point. 

Players drafted in the 2nd round, 1985-2001, with at least 100 games played