Wednesday Bird Droppings
MacPhail talks about Krivsky's Departure
MacPhail thinks the pilfering of all the O's FO members is a sign they're doing something right. -Stacey You could also say it's rats leaving a sinking ship. I'd rather think Andy is right, personally. -duck
MacPhail: No timetable to replace Krivsky -- baltimoresun.com
The Orioles will be short one lieutenant at baseball's winter meetings next week and for the foreseeable future now that special assistant Wayne Krivsky has left for the New York Mets. -zk
Jury's out on '09 Draft for Orioles
Orioles.com staff writer Lisa Winston takes a look at how the 2009 draft class fared. Everything's sunny and all did great, apparently. Yeah. Right. -duck I don't know, duck, the title is JURY'S OUT. -Stacey
Melewski's Minor League All-StarsI would have gone with Britton as the starting pitcher (if we're not counting Matusz), but that's just me. Steve Melewski and I agree: Zach Britton is awesome. -Stacey
Renowned Cuban umpire defects to United States Nelson Diaz , who worked the Orioles-Cuban National Team game in 1999 in Baltimore, defected with his wife and two daughters yesterday. He was selected to work the 2009 World Baseball Classic, but wasn't allowed to attend by Cuban officials. They thought he might defect. Looks like they were right. -duck
More news stories below the jump...
Financial Darwinism and the Economics of the AL East "The Blue Jays were the only team of Tampa, Baltimore, and Toronto to even finish second in the past decade, in 2006." Aside from Tampa's miracle run in 2008, none of the other three have come close to winning the division in the 2000s. Michael Silver expands on a theme also broached by Steve Melewski in yesterday's Bird Droppings links. -duckO's don't plan offering arbitration to any eligible for it
Roch says: "The Orioles won't be offering it to Melvin Mora, Mark Hendrickson, Danys Baez or Chad Moeller." Expect Moeller and Hendrickson to return after much cheaper offers are made to them. -duck
Orioles interested in Bedard; should Mariners be as well?
"No use going over that trade's history once again, but the Mariners do face an interesting dilemma now. Should they also be interested in bringing back Bedard at a reduced rate, or did the Mariners see enough of the injury-prone lefty in the last two seasons?" Sorry, but I'm going to continue to revel in the effects of this trade for years. Decades, even. -duck
Baysox Announce Coloring Contest
"The Bowie Baysox announce today Louie's Winter Warm-Up Coloring Contest. Baysox fans ages 3-12 can print a winter-themed picture of the Baysox lovable mascot Louie at ww.baysox.com, color it and mail it back to the team." Great idea, but what is it with MiLB tams and their press release writers? You feel the need to write "announce today"? When else would it have been? And a misspelled web address? Really? -duck
Dempsey and Markakis light up the season
Check out Nick as he lights the Washington Monument in Mt. Vernon. Will they ever get new music for that? If Rick Dempsey is more your style, he'll be hanging out at the Fells Point Old Tyme Christmas celebration and will light the Christmas tree in Broadway Square. -Stacey
Guthrie and Bergesen to take part in tennis challenge
Pam Shriver is hosting the 24th annual BCF Tennis Challenge at first Mariner Arena on December 9th. The event will be televised on MASN and the celebrity doubles match will feature Jeremy Guthrie and Brad Bergesen. I guess this means Bergy's leg rehab is going well. Should be fun to watch. -Stacey
Say ‘o’ for Baltimore Orioles Tickets!
Put this in the WTF? department. This guy who's trying to hustle online tickets has written a piece that is RIDDLED with factual errors, and also contains some outright fabrications; such as "There’s a reason why Baltimore Orioles tickets are still in such great demand.". Or, "[saying 'o' during the national anthem] is done to highlight the Baltimore accent....but in recent times it has become almost non-existent at games, , mainly due to recent patriotic concerns." Um, WHAT THE HELL. Just goes to show you that you can't believe everything you read on the internet.-zk
ZAUN! - TSN Canada
Gregg ZAUN is a big CFL fan. Also, he expects to sign with a team before the end of this week. -zk
Fitch Rates Sarasota County, Florida's 1/2 Cent Sales Tax Bonds 'AA'; Upgrades CST to 'AA'
Want to invest in the Orioles? The bonds which are funding the renovations to Ed Smith stadium got a AA rating. -zk
Local News | M's offer arbitration to Beltre, not to Bedard | Seattle Times Newspaper
By not offering arbitration to Bedard before Tuesday's 9 p.m. PST deadline, the Mariners will not be entitled to receive draft picks as compensation next June if the free agent signs with another team after two injury-filled seasons with Seattle. -zk
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Melewski does choose Britton
He lists both a LH starter and a RH starter.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
ha!
Guess I need to brush up on my reading comprehension :)
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Hank Blalock
Anyone want to see him playing third next season? I would be all for it personally.
I know the average was down this year, but there is a lot of power potential there.
Not me
Unless he’s completely on the cheap. He’s not very good IMO.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
I think his upside could be .275/30HR
“Mr. Baseball”
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
I'd take that I guess
depending upon his OBP. But when you look at his stats the only time he’s really put up decent numbers are years when he plays part time.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Well, that IS the plan by June....
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
BABIP
he posted a career low .252 BABIP without a huge change in LD% (it went down by 2%, which doesn’t account for a .050 point decline in BABIP). there are players who naturally have low BABIP – Joe Crede, for example – but Blalock’s been generally in the .300 range, so last season looks like a fluke. (it’s also possible that he simply fell off a cliff, but at age 29? doesn’t seem likely to me)
the main reason he shouldn’t be our 3B is because he’s a terrible defender. He hasn’t posted a positive UZR at 3B since 2005. if he comes to Baltimore he will play first base or DH.
.277 had to be a bit of bad luck on his part
But in other years when he played more than 100 games he was at .318, .325. I’d like more than that at a corner infield spot, frankly.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
When is has played full seasons...
… or even 120+ games a year, he averages over 25 bombs.
Career OPS .794…. if you throw out his rookie season its even much better than that.
I wouldnt mind having him around. I mean, the free agent market is junk and I think he
can play either corner.
I bet we could get him for around 4 million. The most he ever made was 6.2 and he’s coming off a year where his BA was horrific.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
true but
his OBP is brutal when he is stretched out over a long season. He was good in ‘03 and ’04, but since then, yikes, and that was forever ago. His OPB would probably end up lower than Melvin’s over a full season.
But, if Bell is gonna be ready midway, making Blalock more of a platoon player, I might be able to get on board with that.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
I get nervous about Bell..
His weight concerns me for a third baseman….
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
He's not overweight
People keep saying that, but he’s slimmed down a lot. Did you see him in the AFL at all? I did and he didn’t look like he had a problem.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
I havent seen him at all in the AFL....
Im mainly basing it off the criticism from last season when we signed him. I had heard he was kicking the ball all over the place in LA’s farm system but didnt take the time to check it all out.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Dude was voted best defensive 3B
in his league before he got shipped to us last season
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
Admittedly, I dont know alot about these new advanced statistics...
.. that everyone is all about these days.
But I do know, I’ll be pissed if he commits 20 extra errors at the hot corner this year. Perhaps its unwarranted but I just don’t get a good vibe. Never did.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
You do realize
that a single-A groundskeeper is not anywhere near an MLB groundskeeper, leading to awful infield conditions and a shitload more errors.
"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year
Are they hitting the ball as hard as some of these MLB power bats?
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
And Ive been to a shitload of Bowie Baysox games..
…. and I never noticed them playing in a minefield.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Right.
Though you should notice that the grounds crews in MiLB are not nearly as active as their ML-equivalents, and they’re not as well-equipped or trained.
"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year
Alright, Alright....
I concede on Blalock. Just thought he might be a viable utility guy who can give us some pinch-hitting power when needed.
I think Im just getting antsy for them to spend some money…
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 2, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I would think it means he's no longer injured
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
That must have been
the shin bruise from hell. He missed more time than I certainly expected. Good to see him back on his feet.
He's fairly certain
there was a hairline fracture. Various medical people told him a hairline fracture might not show up on an X-Ray or MRI.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
I remember in July, August, and September
It was all “lets see what Wieters does tonight” and also “any new news on Bergesen?”
I was so optimistic, I just wanted to see him pitch again. I saw him pitch in person more times than on TV. And I’m not even one who particularilly cares about pitching match ups at the games I attend. Talk about luck of the draw.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on Dec 2, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
CC advertising FAIL
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
I just want to report
As a many-games-attendee, that the O in the anthem is alive and well. You know, this could be a good topic, like what is the rudest thing you’ve heard during the anthem?
In the second game of the Detroit Wieters series, immediately after the O, we all heard a loud “GO DETROIT.” It was rude.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
When the Yankees were in town once
Right before the “O!” some douche yelled “Who’s gonna lose?”
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
If this occured in the early - mid 90's
then it was probably local boy, Mark Teixeira in his yankees hat.
I would just like to voice my appreciation for the daily Offseason O picture. The photo choices for the lousy guys (Eaton rubbing the ball as Papi rounds the bases, Freel lying facedown in the dirt) have been perfect.
"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson
ha ha
I figure, why pretend they were good?
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
by Stacey on Dec 2, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ADAM EATON HAD PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
If Gonzalez and Soriano
both accept arb the braves are going to be screwed.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
Anybody doing fan projections on FanGraphs?
I like the way that they have you pick ranges for stats, rather than exact numbers. It only gets annoying if you think a player’s going to be right between two ranges (e.g., you think he’ll bat around .280, and the ranges are .260-.279 and .280-.299). It also shows projections by team fans versus non-fans, which is nice.
So far, for the O’s, only Jones, Wieters, and Roberts have projections, since they wait until there are 30 projections to show the averages. Fans expect more power from Jones and Wieters than non-fans, while they agree almost completely on Roberts.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
Yeah its cool
I like seeing the perspective from fans vs no fans. Fans will boost the stats.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 2, 2009 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
I just noticed.....
the Dodgers did not offer arb to Randy Wolf.
Screw John Lackey, let the Red Sox and Yankees fight over him. Why don’t we sign Wolf to a three-year deal?
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Ugh - 3 years???
13 starts in 2005, 12 starts in 2006, 18 starts in 2007. His last two years have been nice as far as eating innings (4.3 ERA in the NL in 2008 is nothing to write home about.), but do you really think he’s going to cut it in the AL East? And do you really like the odds of him staying healthy for 3 straight years?
i don't think less than 3 gets it done.
and i’d be happy to trade him away in the middle of the 2011 season when we promote arrieta. :)
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Yeah I guess that's true.
I’d just be nervous that he’d get hurt the first year and we’d be stuck paying for three years of rehab starts.
Hell
I wouldn’t mind signing him for 3 years and trading him by 2011 midway. Though, he has to be healthy AND productive in the AL east, which is no walk in the park. One more thing, I think that Arrieta is called up midway this season. I don’t think he needs much more time in AAA.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 3, 2009 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
Short-term memory...
So I was reading this article about the different projection systems and finding it fairly useful and amusing, until I came across this excerpt:
ZiPS – Created by DaveDAN Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory, the ZiPS projections are quite elaborate, including defense and ODDIBE, or Odds of Important Baseball Events. Szymborski is well respected throughout the SABR world, and his system is thought to be pretty sound.
LOLine for 2010: Jeremy Guthrie. According to ZiPS, Jeremy Guthrie will only surrender 29 home runs this year. That’s less than thirty! Jeremy Guthrie is a lot of things; solid pitcher is not among them. Guthrie gave up three home runs pouring milk on his cereal this morning. Waiting in line at the DMZ last week he served up two gopher balls and later allowed a walkoff tot to his massage therapist.
Seriously? I mean, Guts definitely struggled this year and all, and he’s never been home-run-proof, but it does amaze me when people write stuff and don’t even bother to check, say, how Guts pitched any year before 2009. Oy.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
His comment was partially motivated by comedic effect
Vizzini: Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of Plato, Aristotle, Socrates?
Man in Black: Yes.
Vizzini: Morons.
Obviously,
but if you’re going to single out one ridiculous projection, it seems like there should be a lot of better choices than Guthrie giving up less than 30 HR.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
Who gets signed to play 3rd?
Crede?
Beltre?
Feliz?
DeRosa?
Figgins?
Glaus?
Tejada?
My vote is for Crede. Incentive laden, 1-year deal with an option. See how Bell does, if he’s ready around August or September, Crede can either be shifted to DH or traded.

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