Top 10 Oriole Prospects

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-All ages are of opening day

* denotes left-handed hitter

# denotes switch hitter

1. Brian Matusz, LHS, 23.2, Drafted 1st Round 08, Univ. San Diego

 

League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
A+ (CAR)	66.2	2.16	2.91	10.1	2.84	3.56	.68	1.44
AA (EL)	46.1	1.55	2.55	8.94	2.14	4.18	.39	1.19
MLB	44.2	4.63	4.08	7.66	2.82	2.72	1.21	0.66

 

Coming out of the University of San Diego, Matusz was billed as a pitcher who was close to major league ready, but it’s hard to believe even his most optimistic supporters could have envisioned him reaching the majors this quickly. After skyrocketing through the Orioles’ system, Matusz made 8 starts for the Orioles before he was shut down in early September. Although Matusz doesn’t have ace velocity- sitting in the low 90s- he projects as a 1-2 starter due to his advanced feel for pitching and his deep repertoire. He features a curve and a slider, both of which are 55s. Matusz’s best pitch is his change, which features great depth and is thrown with good arm speed. All of his offerings play up due to his command and feel for pitching. By all accounts Matusz is a great kid, and receives rave reviews for his make-up. Matusz figures to start the year in Baltimore, and may be the odds-on favorite to win the rookie of the year award in 2010. Grade A

 

2. Jake Arrieta, RHS, 24.1, Drafted 5th Round 07, TCU

 

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A+ (CAR)	113	2.87	3.39	9.56	4.06	2.35	.56	1.14
2009	AA (EL)	59	2.59	3.08	10.7	3.51	3.05	.61	0.67
2009	AAA (INT)	91.2	3.93	4.15	7.66	3.24	2.36	.88	1.09

 

After experiencing a drop in velocity before the draft in 07, Arrieta dropped all the way to the 5th Round where the Orioles were happy to gobble him up. Given a well above-slot bonus of 1.1 million, Arrieta has done nothing but impress since then. Arrieta’s velocity has returned, and he routinely sits in the 93-94 mph range. In 2008 he was the only player below AA to represent the United States in the Olympics where he pitched as a starter. His breaking-ball is strikeout pitch with sharp, late break. Arrieta also shows some aptitude for throwing a change, but he needs to throw the pitch more to improve his feel for it. There are two projection tracks for Arrieta. One places him as a 3rd starter who is able to log 200 innings a year, and the other views him as a classic power closer. With his three pitches I view Arrieta as a starter long-term. He actually reminds me quite a bit of recently acquired Kevin Millwood, in both build and repertoire. The Orioles want Arrieta to cut down his stride to generate a better angle to the plate. Once he does that and polishes his command up some, Arrieta is likely to the see the big leagues- most likely sometime in July or August. Grade B+

 

3. Josh Bell#, 3B, 23.5, Drafted 4th Round 05, Florida HS

 

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A+ (CAL)	223	14.2	29.9	273	373	455	360	12/6	4/2
2009	AA (EL/SOU)	518	12.0	21.9	295	376	516	342	35/20	3/5

 

Acquired as the main piece of the George Sherrill trade from the Dodgers in July, Bell appears to be the long-term solution at third for the Orioles. Bell combines a discerning eye at the plate with prodigious power and projects to hit 25 HRs annually at the big league level. While Bell has a smooth swing from the left-side, scouts question whether he will ultimately have to scrap hitting right-handed as his career OPS from that side is a measly 693. Coming into the year some questioned whether Bell could stick at third, and it seems as though Bell answered those critics in 2009. Bell has always had plenty of arm to play third, and coming off knee surgery he lost weight and improved his mobility around the bag. The general consensus is now that Bell will be able to stick at third long-term. While Bill James projects Bell to hit for a 288/370/455 triple slash line in the majors in 2010, that projection is likely too optimistic. From all accounts the Orioles plan to take things slow with Bell, and he should spend the majority of 2010 in AAA. Long-term Bell projects as a adequate defender at third who should post impressive OBP and power numbers. Grade B+

 

4. Zach Britton, LHS, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 06, Texas HS

 

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A (SAL)	147.1	3.12	3.57	6.96	2.99	2.33	.55	2.81
2009	A+ (CAR)	140	2.70	3.26	8.42	3.54	2.38	.39	3.38

 

Britton, in my mind, is one of the most intriguing arms in the minors right now. Fairly unheralded coming out of high school, Britton has added velocity in pro ball and maintained the world-class sink he gets on his FB (as evidenced by his astounding 3.38 GO/AO ratio in 09). His FB now runs 91-94 and very few hitters are able to do anything with it besides pound it into the ground. Britton has a slider that features 50 break, although his command for the pitch is poor at this point. While Britton doesn’t use his change much, the pitch has solid fade and could be a plus pitch in the future. While Britton’s ability to generate Ks and groundballs is a recipe for success, he must improve his command to have this level of success at the higher levels. Britton should move up to AA in 2010, and with a good start could find himself in AAA late in the year. Britton has the stuff to find himself at the top end of a major league rotation, and his ultimate role will be determined by the improvements he makes with his control. Grade B+

 

5. Matt Hobgood, RHS, 19.8, Drafted 1st Round 09, California HS

 

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	RC (APP)	26.2	4.73	2.90	5.40	2.70	2.00	0	1.65

 

Many were surprised, some even critical, when the Orioles took Hobgood 5th overall in this year’s draft. Most publications rated other prep arms such as Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, and Zach Wheeler higher than Hobgood, but the Orioles fell in love with his make-up. Scouts laud Hobgood for his bulldog demeanor and work ethic. At 6’4” 245 Hobgood has a durable frame that should be able to withstand a starters workload. In high school Hobgood worked in the low 90s and was able to dial his fastball all the way up to 96 when he needed to, but in his pro debut he worked in the high 80s. Although reason for pause, this drop in velo is not overly concerning as many HS pitchers experience a dip in velo pitching deep into the summer for the first time after a long HS season. Hobgood also features a sharp downer curve that has the potential to be a swing-and-miss pitch and a promising change. The Orioles expect Hobgood’s velo will return in 2010 and he should start his first full pro season in the sally league. Hobgood’s performance there will determine his timetable. Ultimately, Hobgood projects as a 2/3 starter who should be able to work deep into games. Grade B

 

6. Brandon Snyder, 1B, 23.5, Drafted 1st Round 05, Virginia HS

 

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	A+ (CAL)	476	6.3	19.1	315	358	490	366	33/13	3/2
2009	AA (EL)	233	11.8	22.4	343	421	597	404	19/10	0/1
2009	AAA (INT)	297	8.4	24.4	248	316	355	321	18/2	3/1

 

It was a tale of two seasons for Snyder in 2009. After absolutely destroying the Eastern League to a tune of a 1018 in over 200 at-bats Snyder struggled mightily in AAA where he hit only 2 homers in just under 300 plate appearances. Some of his struggles in AAA were chalked up to Norfolk’s stadium that is notoriously tough on power hitters. Snyder said that after he initially struggled in AAA he changed what got him there and fell into an even deeper slump. An encouraging sign for Oriole fans is that Snyder raked in the AFL posting a 600 slugging percentage and drawing 13 walks compared to only 11 strikeouts. Scouts question the degree of power that Snyder will have in the majors. His swing is fairly flat, and Snyder has never hit more than 13 HRs in a season, and for a first baseman to have value with 13 HRs a high average and a lot of walks are necessities. Snyder has shown impressive gap power, hitting 33 two-baggers in 08 and following that up with 37 in 09. I think some of those doubles will become HRs as Snyder matures and gains a greater understanding of his swing. A triple slash line of 300/360/490 does not seem unreasonable to me for Snyder in the majors. With Garrett Atkins signing in Baltimore, the Orioles have the ability to keep Snyder in AAA and let him hone his swing. He could receive an audition in September, and I see him as the Orioles’ starting first baseman in 2011. Grade B

 

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP, 22.4, Drafted 3rd Round 05, Maryland HS

 

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2008	A+ (CAR)	150.2	4.30	4.20	9.02	2.99	3.02	1.25	0.75
2009	AA (EL)	73	2.34	4.12	7.64	4.32	1.77	0.62	0.90

 

Erbe dealt with shoulder tendonitis last year, limiting him to only 73 innings in AA. When he returned to action his velo was down slightly, working in the low 90s as opposed to 93-94 where he had worked in the past. The drop in velo was evidenced by a drop in his K rate from 9 to 7.6. After the season Erbe went to the AFL to make up for lost time, and pitched well, albeit in a small showing. Scouts seem to like Erbe more than the stats suggest they should. Erbe’s AA manager Brand Komminsk said he preferred Erbe to Arrieta, due to Erbe’s frame and pure stuff. Erbe features a plus slider and a developing change. Komminsk went on to posit that hitters don’t pick up the ball against Erbe. Erbe says his shoulder feels great and expects to be 100 percent for the 2010 season. If Erbe’s velocity returns and he is able to iron out his fastball command he could have a real break out season in 2009. Despite Komminsk’s ringing endorsement I have concerns about Erbe. Aside from health issues, Erbe’s lack of command, a solid 3rd pitch, and fly-ball tendency all scare me long-term. I think Erbe may be best suited for the bullpen, where he could profile as a closer. Erbe is still young enough to improve and has a lot of potential, but more risk than most AA prospects. Grade B

 

8. Xavier Avery*, CF, 20.3, Drafted 2nd Round 08, Alabama HS

 

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2008	RC (GCL)	192	5.4	29.1	280	333	337	395	8/0	13/3
2009	A (SAL)	509	5.4	23.5	262	306	340	339	15/2	30/10

 

A two-way player in high school, Avery was committed to play running back at the University of Georgia before signing with the Orioles. As Avery’s football background suggests, he has blazing speed- timed at 6.2 in the 60-yard dash. Scouts struggled to get a read on Avery due to the fact that he was not 100 percent focused on baseball and he faced poor competition in high school. Coming out of the draft some projected that Avery would have to spend two years in rookie ball as he adjusted to professional baseball. Avery has surpassed those expectations by surviving in the Sally League in his first full pro season. While his overall numbers are not objectively encouraging, they are extremely impressive when one considers his lack of baseball experience. One of the most encouraging signs was that Avery’s walk rate remained steady moving up to full-season ball and he cut his strikeout rate almost 6 percent. At this point Avery is more of an athlete playing baseball than a baseball player. Despite his outstanding speed he struggles in the outfield to get good reads and jumps on balls, and he has a ways to go in learning to steal bases. While he hasn’t shown power yet, he is far from a slap hitter and scouts believe he should hit 8-12 HRs when all is said and done. While I am more bullish on Avery than others, I am excited by the progress he has made and enticed by his upside. Grade B-

 

9. Luis Lebron, RHR, 25.1, Signed as a Free Agent 04, Dominican Republic

 

Year	League	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	GO/AO
2009	A+ (CAR)	33	3.00	2.65	14.2	5.45	2.61	0.55	0.70
2009	AA (EL)	27.1	1.98	3.20	12.8	4.28	2.99	0.99	0.68

 

After missing almost all of 2008 due to injuries, Lebron burst onto the prospect scene in 2009. His upper 90s velocity returned and his slider was as sharp as ever. Furthermore, Lebron showed improved command. While in his last healthy season in 2007 Lebron walked a batter an inning, he was able to cut that rate in half in 2009. If Lebron can harness his command a little more his electric stuff (according to BA he was second amongst all relievers in batting average against and his 13.6 K/9 was 5th) should allow him to handle closing duties in the major leagues. Lebron would be well served by at least half a year in AAA to work on his command, but his stuff will make it tough for the Orioles to hold him back for long. His injuries are an obvious cause for concern, as is his flyball tendency. An additional concern I have is that prospects with big fastballs are often able to blow away minor league hitters but struggle in the big leagues when they fail to command secondary stuff and allow big league hitters to sit on the fastball. For this reason I don’t think Lebron will profile as a closer, but he is still a good prospect. Lebron reminds me a lot of Jose Arrendondo. Grade B-

 

10. Mychal Givens, SS, 19.11, Drafted 2nd Round 09, Florida HS

 

Year	League	PA	BB%	SO%	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	2B/HR	SB/CS
2009	DNP- Signed Late

 

A two-way standout in high school, Givens had many scouts intrigued by his potential on the mound. His fastball reached the upper 90s, but his low arm-slot rendered his pitching career likely to culminate in the bullpen. At short Givens has all the tools to stay at the position long-term. Obviously he has enough arm for the position, and his range and hands could be plus tools. At the plate Givens is more projection at this point, but unlike many high school hitters Givens shows a patient approach at the plate. He has good bat speed which leads scouts to project he will hit for some power down the road. Because he signed right before the deadline Givens will not begin his pro career until 2010. It is unlikely that he will earn a full season assignment, although it is not out of the question. Without any pro data to go on it is tough to get a read on Givens, but he has the tools to be a very productive big league player. Grade B- <!--EndFragment-->