Thursday Bird Droppings
by Camden Chat on Dec 3, 2009 7:00 AM EST
in Open Threads
65 comments
O's look to fill corner infield vacancies | orioles.com: News
Spencer Fordin summarizes the needs of the club as the Winter Meetings kick off in Indianapolis in four days. Really, nothing you haven't seen before (although this is the first I've heard of ther O's considering Pedro, last April's canard notwithstanding). The article is already outdated since Wagner signed with Atlanta yesterday. -zk
2010 Orioles Spring Training Schedule | orioles.com: Schedule
As mentioned yesterday, the Orioles released their Spring Training schedule. They'll open at Ed Smith Stadium against the Rays on March 3–assuming all the litigation is finished by then. -zk
2010 MLB Free Agents: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
MLBTradeRumors has updated this list to show who was offered arbitration and who wasn't. Of particular interest would be Type A free agents who weren't offered arbitration by their former clubs—meaning they can be signed without giving up any picks. That list includes Bengie Molina, Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Randy Wolf, Kevin Gregg, Octavio Dotel, LaTroy Hawkins, and Darren Oliver. Expect some of these guys to go early in the FA signing process. -zk
Talking Glovework - MASNsports.com
O's president Andy MacPhail is a big believer in defense. But knowing the O's also need to bolster their lineup by adding talent this winter, would he sacrifice defense for a player with a big bat? "I don't like sacrificing defense if I can avoid it. I think it's important and is an under-appreciated ability in our sport--an ability that is difficult to measure, but important nonetheless." -zk
This writer won't hustle for Roberto Alomar as a first-ballot Hall of Famer
Bill Livingston isn't voting for Roberto Alomar this year because he didn't hustle in the 2001 ALDS. Um, ok. -Stacey
Nats' Lannan, Balester dueling online - washingtonpost.com
John Lannan and Collin Balester are in a race to see who can get 500 followers on Twitter, with the loser having to get a mullet. Here is the part where I admit to having no idea who Collin Balester is. -Stacey
A New Liz on Life
Someone on the staff of the Baysox looks back fondly at Radhames Liz. Did you know he threw a no-hitter at Bowie in 2007? I have no memory of that. -zk
Theo Epstein, Scott Boras headline winter's movers and shakers - Jon Heyman - SI.com
Jon Heyman previews the "players" we should expect to hear from at the winter meetings. Naturally, the words "MacPhail" and "Orioles" don't show up anywhere in his two-page article. But you will find RedSoxYankeesMetsBorasblahblahblah. Even Seattle and Toronto are mentioned. Not Baltimore. -zk
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I follow Lannan and Balester
Adam Jones has a Twitter as well for those who care it’s twitter.com/the_Adam_jones
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
by ravensfan3 on Dec 3, 2009 7:10 AM EST via mobile reply actions
It's Jon Heyman, zk
What did you expect?
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
So duck,
what did you think of the fights last night? Also, I noticed you participate in the Bloody Elbow forum. How is that site in regards to intelligent info? I have been thinking about joining but wanted to see which MMA blog was worthwhile.
BE is BY FAR the best MMA blog on the internet
The fights last night, while quick, were the best action of the season. I don’t like Schaub, but he was impressive in coming back against Jones. Roy Nelson does what Roy Nelson does. Hate his style, but it works. I wish Marcus Jones’ next fight was televised, but he’s on teh unercard. Guess that’s what UFC.com’s Video Vault is for.
BE is well moderated – they have a team that’s darn near a dozen, and it’s ACTIVELY moderated.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
Thanks
I will def check out BE more consistently. I didn’t realize that Schaub (who I don’t really like either) was as tough as he is. When Jones had the full mount, I thought for sure that was it.
I am not really excited about the finale, but whatever I will watch anyway. I really thought it was going to be James vs Marcus in the final. What do you know about Kimbo’s opponent? I am hearing he is a “stand up” guy, which makes it seem like Dana realizes Slice’s marketing potential and wants to maximize it.
Houston Alexander has as much ground game as Kimbo
He’s about as big a “name” as Joe Silva could find that wouldn’t sub Kimbo on less than a minute.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
by duck on Dec 3, 2009 3:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ha ha, excellent point.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
MLB Trade Rumors
Reading that whole article about the MLB trade rumors, not once have I seen something recently about the orioles. I am a little disappointed that the orioles arn’t seriously considering Rich Harden. I think the team needs to make as big of a splash as possible this off season to create some excitment (Which is much need these days at the Oriole Park).
I would be more than happy to see the orioles sign two of these three pitchers. (Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, or Rich Harden) Then possibly one or two these players. (Chone Figgins, Hank Blalock, or Pedro Feliz)
Andy doesn't make waves...
he makes trades. And he makes them quietly. And he’s been pretty good at it.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
by duck on Dec 3, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
dude, its mlbtraderumors
they say whatever they feel like saying. i would imagine the orioles are looking at somebody from that list
it's a news aggregator
they just collect links, and Andy likes to play his cards close to the vest.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
You cant really blame mlbtraderumors, since they do just collect links and limit it to fairly reputable sources
However, its amazing to see how much pure speculation is out there when its all in one place.
yea true
i’ll rephrase to: there is a asston of pure speculation out there….and it all ends up on mlbtraderumors regardless of those “reputable sources”
At least they're clear about what they do though
and its better than having to wade through a dozen different sites to find the same baseless rumors
Off season moves
I agree that the O’s need to sign one starting pitcher. A high risk, high reward type like Bedard, Sheets, Harden or Ducherer (sp?) would be fine. If it doesn’t work, use Patton, Arrieta, Berken, etc.
I’m happy with Wigginton until Bell is ready – hopefully about the all star break. Maybe give Scot Moore one more look. If a deal could be made for Brandon Wood, I would really like it. He could play some 3B for awhile, then take over at SS.
The biggest need is for a 1B who can bat cleanup and hit for power. Aubrey/ Snyder/ Hughes, etc. can’t do that. A trade for A.Gonzalez or Fielder would work, but they are free agents soon. A trade for Miguel Cabrera works. He is young, under control for six years and can really hit. That would be my biggest goal. Trade for Cabrera without giving up the farm. Off limits are Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Weiters, Matusz, Bergesen and Tillman. I also don’t want to give up both Arrieta and Britton. One is ok, but not both. The rest can be discussed.
I don't know that Bergesen is off limits
He seems to be a shining example of “trade when value is high.” If DET would take him and a reasonable package in exchange for the O’s eating all the salary, I’d do it.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
I want to hope
so badly that Bergesen is the real deal, but I think you’re probably right. I’d probably rather give him up than Arrieta…
bergy vs arrieta
I think Bergy has much more chance of being who we think he is: steady mid-rotation starter, than Arrieta has of being what we hope he can be: Ace/#2. But when you’re in the position of the Orioles you gotta stick with the possible ace, especially since even if he’s not as good as we think he’ll be, he’ll still probably be ok.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
I also think
that based on pure stuff Bergy was pitching way over his head and unless you have good stuff it’s hard to do that for very long (obviously there are exceptions like Maddux). So I think he’s at least as likely to start sucking as he is to be a solid mid-rotation starter. Hopefully I’m wrong though.
I don't know
I agree he was pitching over his head. I think most people do. But he was pitching like front-end starter, so unless he regresses to total crap, mid-rotation seems like a pretty reliable prediction.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
True
But it’s just hard for me to imagine him doing well long-term as a RHP throwing 88-89. And it’s not like his off-speed is anything special. He basically relies on his sinking fastball and good location. Obviously I hope he’s one of the exceptions, but if an attractive deal came up the involved him I’d be really happy to sell high and then wish him luck somewhere else.
word
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Location, location, location.
I’ll take a guy who can make the ball go where he wants it over a guy that has great “stuff” more often than not.
Doesn’t Greinke’s fastball top out at barely 90 – 91 mph? As I understand it, what makes him so good is that he has excellent control with both location and speed. He is able to throw the ball where he wants it while varying the speed anywhere from mid-70’s to upper 80’s, with his arm motion and release point being consistently the same.
I’m not saying Bergy is Greinke, but control pitchers who can think are more valuable than most people allow.
hakkaa päälle !
Ok
Right – location location location, but count how many RHPs successfully pitch in the majors long-term with fastballs that sit 88-89 (and actually started at 88-89 – not guys like Moose and Pedro who evolved into more finesse pitchers). There’s just not that many of them.
And no Greinke’s fastball does NOT top out at barely 90-91 mph. According to fangraphs’ pitchfx, Greinke’s fastball this year averaged 93.6 MPH (hitting 95 and above quite regularly) while Bergy’s averaged 89.4. That’s a HUGE difference.
There’s a reason almost no RHPs get drafted without throwing over 90 MPH.
Is it ridiculous to compare him to Derek Lowe?
Obviously, Bergy doesn’t have the track record that Lowe does, but they seem pretty similar in terms of pitch types and such, and the movement seems comparable according to PitchFx. (Bergesen’s two-seamer actually seems to have more movement than Lowe’s, unless I’m misinterpreting the numbers.) I’m not saying Brad’s sinker or (especially) slider are as good as Lowe’s at this point, but he seems to have better control, which helps offset that.
All that said, I’d rather not give up Bergy or Arrieta at the moment, but if we were going to give one up in a deal and the other team would take either, I agree that dealing Brad makes more sense. His ceiling appears to be just above what we hope Arrieta’s floor is, so it obviously makes more sense to trade Brad if their value is about equal to other teams.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
It’s not a horrible comparison. I’m going to be honest and say that I don’t know what to make of those movement numbers, but Lowe has an unbelievable sinker. Does fangraphs pitchfx shit only go back to 2007? I think Lowe used to throw much harder when he first came up (his 2007 average fastball was 90.1), but I can’t remember for sure. I’m still sticking with my original point that not a lot of RHPs come up throwing 88-89 and stick for long careers.
Agree with you about not giving up either of them and about his ceiling vs. Arrieta’s floor.
Yeah, I think PitchFx only goes back to ’07. Lowe may well have thrown harder in the past; I was just going off of FanGraphs.
And you’re right that not a lot of softer-throwing RHP have long, successful careers; the good thing is that of those who do, most have good sinkers, and Bergesen’s sinker seems at least pretty good, even though I get the impression it’s not a plus pitch. One thing that I think will help him going forward is that it did seem like he was getting better at striking batters out as the year went on, which is probably because he made some adjustments to his slider after a few starts.
Of course, maybe I’m just being optimistic ’cause I like the guy and would be thrilled to have a debate a decade from now over who was the better #35.
Weaver's Fourth Law: Your most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.
Yeah
Honestly, from what I saw this year there’s no reason he can’t be pretty effective for a while with his sinker and his location. If he can develop some better additional pitches I think he could be a steady long-term middle of the rotation guy. But it’s going to be an uphill climb for him with his fastball velocity I think. Hopefully we can have that debate some day though…
Additionally
Greinke has at least two additional nasty non-fastball pitches (really good slider and change up), which Bergesen doesn’t currently have. Bergesen has a mediocre slider and a mediocre change up.
Ask any baseball scout
they all rank it 1. Location 2. Movement, and a distant 3. Velocity.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
well...except all the ones who tell all the teams who to draft
Again almost no RHPs get drafted throwing under 90. Once you’re at 90, sure they’d rather have a guy who sits 90 and knows how to pitch than a guy throwing 95 who’s just a thrower, but you gotta be hitting 90 to even be in the discussion.
I mean
that goes without saying, unless your a knuckleballer or Jamie Moyer.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Here's a nice way to put it:
there are four other criteria. First, is velocity. Obviously, an amateur pitcher with an above average fastball will get noticed. To borrow a cliché, "you can’t teach speed." Next is the movement of pitches, followed by command of the strike zone, and finally, changing speeds of all pitches. The irony of the order of importance is that it doesn’t coincide with pitching success at the Major League level. Jim Duquette explains, "It’s unfortunate, but when you are an amateur, the emphasis is on the radar gun. But, once you are signed, the radar gun is not as important." There is a clear logic as to why this is. A potential Major League pitcher has to have the prerequisite stuff in order to succeed. After that, learning to actually pitch against highly skilled hitters is paramount.
"After a pitcher is signed, he has to look at what hitters hate. Hitters don’t like pitches with movement, pitchers who can place any pitch in any count, and they dislike pitchers constantly changing speed. A pitcher must have good velocity, but without those stills, he won’t get professional hitters out. All professional hitters can hit a fastball. It is the other four criteria that makes a successful pitcher", explains Duquette.
Which sounds like it supports my point as well as yours.
So ok, you need to hit at least 90 to get noticed. But the discussion isn’t about getting noticed. It is about whether Bergesen has the potential to be a quality major league starter. And if he has good control and good movement is sounds to me that he’s more than half ay there. Develop another pitch or be able to change speeds (which I’m not sure whether he’s good at or not) and I’d consider Bergy to be a keeper for sure.
hakkaa päälle !
Well right
but there’s a reason that the 90 mph is the barrier for entry – anything below that is not going to cut it very often at the major league level. So the fact that he’s advanced to the majors throwing at that velocity means that he DEFINITELY knows how to pitch, but it’s going to be tough for him to hang around long term at that speed. Develop another 2 quality pitches and he’d increase his chances a lot, but there still aren’t that many RHSPs throwing below 90.
That's one less team to compete with for a free-agent 3B
Per Heyman’s twitter feed, the Phillies will sign 2B Polanco later today and convert him to 3B. The deal is rumored to be for 3 years, $18M.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
Interesting
Polanco has played a handful of games at 3B over the years. Seems like a lot of $$
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Tigers don't have salary cap space
they have those huge bad contracts to Bonderman, Willis, and Nate Robertson, along with the huge good contracts to Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez (among others). maybe they thought the possibility of paying Polanco $6 million or whatever was too much of a risk.
Randy Wolf not getting arbitration is an even bigger deal IMO, although I guess it wasn’t a surprise considering the Dodgers’ ownership drama.
Adam Jones' latest Twitter
Time to get back to it. Let’s get it. Wit brob and morneau and Willis and longoria and a bunch of others with the same goals
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Nick has important things to do!
He’s the celebrity monument lighter tonight, after all :-)
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
And at least he was lifting those turkeys...
they probably weigh more than the 12 oz curls that Huff does all winter.
Another reason for me being happy to have Andy as GM
I have argued for years that defense is probably the single most under appreciated aspect of baseball. A great defensive team can make an average staff look good. Not only do they get to balls that might otherwise be hits, I think they provide their pitchers with a mental edge. I know I’d be more willing to challenge hitters and throw strikes if I knew that if I miss or the hitter guesses right, the odds are still good it’s an out, so long as I keep the ball in the park.
hakkaa päälle !
Ayone else planning on watching the Civil War?
I can’t wait to see what science expirement Oregon will pull out for the unis.
I now have a blog: http://justanotherbaltimoresportsblog.blogspot.com/
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Dec 3, 2009 6:02 PM EST reply actions
What does the Civil War have to do with Oregon?
Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 3, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Dumbest nickname for a sporting event, ever
OK, not really, but yeah, what the hell does OREGON have to do with the Civil War? We need Westie to pipe in an explain. That’s his neck of the woods….
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
I dont think it has anything to do with THE civil war
Any major in-state rivalry ( A “State” vs. “U” making the most sense) could use the name for the same reasons, Oregon is just the one that chose to and it stuck.
I think it should be called the Battle for the Oregon Trail
Caulk the wagon and ford that fuckin’ river! And they better not have killed all the buffalo along the way!
Cry havoc and unleash the Esskay hot dogs of war! - The Wayward Oriole, Opening Day 2008
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 3, 2009 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
May I suggest you spend some time out here before making statements like that.
The name of the game has nothing to do with the American Civil War. As kba says, it is an in-state rivalry. Come to Oregon and you find that people either went to OU or OSU. Families are often split down the middle with siblings or parent – offspring going to different schools. The name makes perfect sense when that environment is taken into account.
And as for dumbest – I know I’ve heard worse. What’s the one in Indiana between Purdue and IU?
hakkaa päälle !
Can't say I'll be getting out to Oregon anytime this lifetime.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
Might try to catch it.
But even though I live out here, I’m a Maryland grad. More interested in Terp basketball and following the Trailblazers.
hakkaa päälle !
Thinking outloud
What about Noah Lowry? He should be in the list of low risk/high rewards guys.
I like Bedard more but simply because of its circuitous nature, but Lowry was a respectable innings-eating guy before he got hurt. Hurt, misdiagnosed, shot out of a cannon, whatever; he was a solid pitcher before 2007. I’m not a stats guy, so does anyone have his groundball rate or anything? And a 1.38 WHIP…good or bad?
Having not pitched since 2007, it makes him all the more interesting as his deal would invariably be a one-year, incentive-laden diddy with the option for Andy to trade him over the summer if things are going well.
Fiorentino needs to get off that catnip
Is it just me or does Jeff Fiorentino look like a cat playing with a ball of yarn in that picture?
Just you, man
Just you.
"(Brock Lesnar) is never in good spirits and he's not in good spirits now." - Dana White
no, i see it
his extended arm looks kinda like that paw thing cats do with yarn
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
I don't even like cats, but
He’s hunting that ball.
Word balloon: “@#%$ing ball. You can’t escape me. I am Fiorenti…”forget it.
ZAUN to Brewers
One year deal, with a club option for 2011. (Sun)
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
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