The future at short
For all of us who remember the disasters of 2008, we know how important having a respectable shortstop is to the Orioles. Cesar Izturis didn't offer much at the plate, but his exceptional fielding was among the best in baseball and helped our young pitching and gave us stability. However, Izturis was signed for only two years, making him a free agent at the end of the upcoming season.
When I was a kid, a teacher of mine once told me that forethought is the only thing in the world that's free. Therefore, I think it is time to start thinking about the possible long-term solutions at shortstop for the Orioles, of which there are a plethora of options, both within the O's system, in the draft, and on the trade and free agent markets.
Option #1: Resign Izturis. It isn't the worst plan. The former gold glover turned in a season which was easily among the five best in the game with the glove. His .280 wOBA isn't much, but in 112 games he posted a WAR of 1.3 due to his defense. He'll be 31 at the start of the 2011 season, so it isn't like he will be over the hill. Bill James projects Izturis' wOBA to decline to .276 in 2010.
Option #2: Robert Andino. We have him already. He's cheap. He's not Izturis with the glove (or with the bat). Nothing in his minor league career indicates he deserves to be a starter in the majors. Not a good option, but less terrible than anyone we had in 2008.
Option #3: Pedro Florimon Jr. Our most advanced shortstop prospect. Had easily the best season of his minor league career with Hi-A Frederick in 2009, showing improvement in every offensive aspect posting a .764 OPS. Not considered a top prospect however, and would need to continue to show significant improvement in all aspects to approach Andino-like offense in the majors. Has the potential to be a plus defender with great range, but his 36 errors in 2009 show how far he has to go.
Option #4: Mychal Givens. Givens, the O's second round pick in 2009, did not play after not signing until the deadline. A two-way player in high school, Givens is extremely raw in all aspects of the game. Has the tools, particularly the arm strength, to be a plus defender, but his small frame makes it unlikely that he will ever develop power. Years away.
Option #5: Garabez Rosa. The Orioles top international prospect at present, Rosa spent most of 2009 in short-season Aberdeen. Showed some power potential and not much else. Years away, and not a highly regarded prospect. This ends the list of current O's shortstop prospects who have any chance of contributing at the major league level that I know of.
Option #6: Christian Colon. The shortstop of Cal State Fullerton and Team USA is widely considered the best college shortstop prospect in the 2010 draft. Near the end of a great summer with Team USA, for which he was named team MVP, Colon broke two bones in his leg. However, he is expected to be fully recovered in time for the start of the college baseball season. Colon's makeup and leadership are off the charts, and lead every article about him. However, this also reflects on his lack of a standout tool - he is average to above average in contact, eye, power, arm strength, speed, and defense. But that package is impressive for a shortstop, and he has demonstrated that his skills translate to wood bats and is expected to stick at shortstop. If he proves he has no lasting effects from his injury, he is definitely a candidate for a top ten pick in the draft. His advanced bat also could mean that he would move through the minors quickly.
Option #7: Brandon Wood. The former #3 prospect in baseball has stagnated without playing time with the Angels and is buried on their depth chart behind Erick Aybar and Macier Izturis. Wood offers average defense at short, but has also seen time at third base, and could possibly be given the starting 3b job in Anaheim if Chone Figgins departs. Now out of options, Wood will likely be dealt if he isn't going to start at third. His value will be down due to his lack of options and his failure to hit in the majors in very limited opportunities. Some feel that due to his size he will outgrow the shortstop position in time. Still shows the tools to be an elite right-handed bat.
Option #8: Macier Izturis. The backup infielder for the Angels will be a free agent at the end of the 2010 season. Offers a Cesar Izturis package with slightly less defense and better on-base skills and is two years younger.
Option #9: Reid Brignac. The lefty hitting Tampa prospect has nothing left to prove in AAA, but is unlikely to pry the starting shortstop job away from Jason Bartlett after his breakout offensive season. Brignac offers plus defense, above average power for a shortstop, but is a liability against left-handed pitching. With the addition of Sean Rodriguez in the Scott Kazmir trade and #1 pick Tim Beckham in A ball, Brignac is a prime candidate to be traded, probably in a similar deal to the Delmon Young/Matt Garza swap. Brignac will cost a high quality prospect, and perhaps more to a divisional opponent like the Orioles.
Option #10: Something else. 2010 is a year away and who knows what will happen. But there aren't any other current trade candidates who are ready to start that I'm away of, and Jeter, Reyes and Rollins will all probably not be free agents at the end of 2010, leaving Izturis the most attractive starting option.
It is precisely this lack of options that I believe makes this issue an urgent one that needs to be thought about now. There has been a lot of talk about the need to add power, a closer, and a veteran starter. But there are a lot more than nine reliable options available to the Orioles for all those things. In one year, the Orioles project to have a glaring hole at a key position. It is time to be thinking about filling it.
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Nice layout of the players
I definitely say no way to Robert Andino. I like the kid as a backup but his bat is beyond awful.
All of the O’s internal options are just too far away to count on. I think if MacPhail really thinks one of them is the answer then he’d be best suited to re-sign Izturis at the end of 2010. Whether or not I’d be ok with that is really dependent upon how the rest of the O’s lineup looks offensively at the end of 2010.
Brandon Wood gets talked up a lot. If he could be gotten on the cheap that’d be nice, he could fill in at 3B this year also while Izzy is still here.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
I like the resigning Izturis option too...
….but the big concern for me is his injury history. He can’t be counted on to stay healthy, which means we’re starting Andino at least a month out of the season. And I don’t think that any of the O’s shortstop prospects are a top 200 prospect at present; one would have to expect extraordinary improvement for them to amount to a starting shortstop ever.
I think Colon is a bit of an overdraft at 1:3 even if he is healthy – he’s more of a 7-14 pick. But I like him a lot, and I think that his intangibles and his performance outweigh his lack of tools. I like the idea of selecting him and using the money saved to spend later in the draft again, and I think that in yet another draft light on elite bats and heavy on arms, the O’s can afford to pass up on another top pitcher in favor of the best shortstop prospect out there. But I think that could easily be done in combination with a deal for Wood. And I think that the Orioles could obtain Wood without giving up a top prospect if they took on a significant portion of Gary Matthews Jr’s contract. $10 to $15 million is a lot of money, but the Orioles have it and I can think of lots worse things they could spend it on than Brandon Wood. I could also see offering Brandon Snyder in exchange for Brignac; I think it is a fair exchange in terms of talent and value, and the Rays need a first baseman with Carlos Pena’s contract ending after 2010. The O’s also need a first baseman, but those are more easily purchased than shortstops, and we’d still have Waring in AAA by that point.
I don't know anything about Colon
But I leery of having to refer to someone’s intangibles even before they are drafted.
The O’s seemed pretty high on Mychal Givens when they drafted him but even if he ends up making it he’s too far away to count on for anything.
I was just looking at the FA class for SS at Cot’s and no one jumps out at me:
Alex Gonzalez BOS
Christian Guzman WAS
J.J. Hardy MIL
Omar Infante ATL *
Cesar Izturis BAL
Derek Jeter NYY
Julio Lugo STL
Jhonny Peralta CLE *
Edgar Renteria SF
Jose Reyes NYM *
Jimmy Rollins PHI *
Ramon Santiago DET
Ramon Vazquez PIT
Jack Wilson SEA
I’m pretty sure Jack Wilson won’t be a FA, didn’t he sign an extension with Seattle? I also think JJ Hardy got pushed back a year due to the Brewers sending him back to the minors. He’s one I’d like to have but given he was just traded to the Twins I don’t think there’s a chance of that. Jose Reyes is a little intriguing but I think he’s gonna have the injury problems forever. Jimmy Rollins is falling off the cliff fast and he’ll be, what, 32 in 2011?
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
Colon was the captain of Team USA this summer
And was the 2nd team All-American at short in the NCAA last year. He led Team USA with five home runs and batted .362/.459/.617 with 24 steals. He was Baseball America’s summer player of the year. Compared to this year’s top collegiate shortstop, Grant Green, Colon is a better bet to stick at short and more advanced with the bat but lacks Green’s upside. Colon will likely be vying with high school 3b Nick Castellanos and collegiate 3b Zach Cox to be the top position player selected after Bryce Harper. They, along with pitchers Anthony Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon, and Karsten Whitson are the current leading candidates for the top five picks.
As far as the makeup thing goes, I’m no scout and have no idea how much it all really matters in the end. But I know it has been very important to the Orioles in recent drafts – Matusz, Hobgood, and Coffey were all particularly praised for their makeup and work ethic pre-draft. When it comes to Colon, all reports about him are so exceptional on this aspect that I think it will likely count for something, and he’s an excellent prospect even if they are disregarded. But the constant talk about how the O’s need a clubhouse leader makes Colon seem like a good long term fit, even if I feel very silly talking about a college junior as a potential major league clubhouse leader.
As for the free agents, I tend to agree. Rollins and Reyes both have options for 2011 which I think are locks to be picked up. Rollins technical stats indicate that he was probably mostly just unlucky in 2009. Wilson’s new contract has a 2011 option and he’s just Izturis without the stolen bases anyway, and Hardy won’t be a free agent until 2012 due to his demotion.
There are some other quality shortstop prospects who might be available in trades – Chris Valaika of the Reds, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, and one of Starlin Castro or Ha-juk Lee of the Cubs to name a few. But Valaika had a very poor 2009, Tejada isn’t a top 50 prospect and Castro and Lee would be very expensive to obtain – either one, particularly Castro, could be the centerpiece of a Halladay deal right now.
That said, I think that catcher and shortstop are the two most valuable positions to have above average players at – it is so easy to have league average players at other positions, but a .750 OPS from either the catcher or shortstop creates surplus value. I’d be willing, if I were in charge, to deal for both Brignac and Wood, and to draft Colon on top of that. Three top shortstop prospects gives you great odds that at least one will turn into a star, and package that with Wieters and you have a core you can build upon for years.
P.S. The read I got on the O’s drafting Givens was that they were less taken with him personally and more drafting him because he was a great talent for his draft position. They appeared quite willing to let him go unsigned over a small amount of money after all. And he has a lot of talent, but right now, all we really know about him is that he can throw really hard.
I forgot to mention AJ Cole
Another of the top high school arms who could go in the top 5 in the draft this year.
Yes, AJ Cole is the biggest wildcard of the group mentioned IMO. He could put it all together and become the 1st arm off the board, or he could stagnate and end up dropping out of the top 10. So much of his value is wrapped up in his projection, it could really go either way. I personally believe that of Taillon, Cole, Covey, Whitson, and even Bedrosian, Cole has the lesser overall stuff, but OTOH, if he tightens up the curve, adds another few MPH and shows a decent changeup, he may be percieved as better than Taillon.
One thing to mention is that Colon may end up being better suited as a 2Bman. Yes, Colon is the more advanced overall player compared to Green, but at 1:3, I may be more content with Green’s upside(if he were in the 10 draft) than Colon’s limited upside but excellent polish and poise.
Regardless, at 1:3 we will have an excellent group to choose from. I can only hope for Taillon personally.
Great, informative diary.
I voted for Brandon Wood.
I’m a little worried Izzy is going to regress faster than Bill James thinks. I love his glove though.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
What makes you worried, z?
Dude can’t hit, but he’s always been pretty consistent with the bat. He’ll be 30 next year, so if they extend him another year or two that’s not awful. Not my first choice, but if they’ve built a good strong lineup he should be ok for a couple years.
Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts
My main concern would be...
…that his BABIP and steals will decrease as he loses speed, and that’s the bulk of his offensive value.
That said, I don’t think it matters much. His value is in the field and in how undervalued in terms of cost that is. In less than 120 games this year, Fangraphs valued his play at more than his 2009 and 2010 salaries combined.
As long as he keeps pickin' it,
…I’m cool. He could be Mark Belanger for all I care. So I’m not that worried. I want excellent D behind the young’uns.
"I doubt he could reach [second base]...mostly cuz his fucking arm was in Aybar's nuts." – twistedlogic
I like the Brandon Wood idea.
He is major league ready and has shown a good bat at AAA in the past. He just needs a chance to play and some coaching. Put him at 3B until Bell is ready, then put him at SS. I would offer a pithing prospect for him, or if the Orioles land a veteran starteing pitcher, I would consider offering them Guthrie for Wood.
my question is his defense
the guy deserves a shot to prove whether or not he can hit in the majors, but is he really defensively good enough to play SS? UZR doesn’t like him in a tiny sample (-12 UZR/150 career), and the fans don’t really like him either:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2008_ANA.html
now they’re probably exaggerating a bit – I doubt he’s a worse overall defender than Casey Kotchman (look at the position-neutral rating), but he’s certainly no Vizquel. I guess if he could hit like Michael Young, I could live with well below average defense, but that’s not a certainty.
His defense is a big question mark
But his bat has enough potential to be valuable at an infield corner. If 2010 is a lost season, no harm in finding out what he can do if the price is right.
What are the Angels looking for
In a trade for Brandon Wood?
No idea
The scuttlebutt is that Wood isn’t available at all and the Angels plan on having him as their starting 3b in 2010.
Yeah
This was written before Figgins signed with the Mariners. As the offseason goes on, I’ll probably revisit this topic with some further from the majors shortstop prospects in other organizations as well as some deeper draft prospects.
The Givens pick
has puzzled me since day one. So he isn’t going to pitch, but we are worried about him even developing into serviceable SS??!! Then the entire Birdland community is convinced that he isn’t going to sign, and magically at the last moment he does. I just don’t know how this one is going to pan out…I smell trouble.
We have a ton of raw talent with huge question marks already in players such as Hoes and Avery. I guess we can just add Mychal to that list. But in the second round? That draft could come back to haunt us in a bad way ala Rowell/Beato unless Hobgood and Givens make huge strides.
It was a draft high in risk...
…but also high in upside.
After the signings are in, I liked our draft a lot. Yes, there is a lot of risk. But it is well-diversified risk – if only a couple of our high upside picks pan out, the draft is a huge win. Givens was considered a first round talent who fell in part because teams couldn’t decide if he was a pitcher or a hitter. He could be a steal. As could Coffey, as could Berry, as could Ohlman, as could Webb, as could Henry or Wirsch. Hobgood was always a first round talent, so it isn’t like the gulf between him and Matzek or Turner was so large. As for Givens, I don’t think the top shortstop prospects taken later in the draft like Daniel Fields or Billy Hamilton offer any more certainty.
And I like the confidence it shows in the scouting staff from the front office, and the faith that it shows in our young core in the big leagues. We added a lot of premium talent, and the price we paid was that it is risky talent. It isn’t the worst strategy.
To echo what everyonhe else just said, Hobgood and Givens though were are top 2 picks I wouldn’t necessarily say that they are the best prospects coming from this past draft, though so far that is how they have been rated by most outlets. But aside from these 2, Coffey who IMO has a higher ceiling than either of the 1st or 2nd round picks was a big name. But, we also drafted guys like Wirsch, Henry, Townsend, Tolliver, Cowan, Martin, Ryan and Tim Berry, Ohlman, Webb, Hoppy, a bunch of guys who have high ceilings and could become good MLers. Tons of upside accompanied by risk, but this draft is in no which way similar to the 06 draft. Furthermore, Beato lost a few ticks on his FB which hurt his prospect status, the Beato we drafted isn’t the same guy we see today, but I guess that is asside from the point.
Have we given up on Blake Davis?
The man who will one day be President is, at this moment, lying in his cradle, trying to find some strategic way to get his big toe in his mouth.
-Mark Twain
Most scouts consider Davis a solid utility infielder instead of a starter. He might, eventually, turn into a Mark DeRosa-type without the power, but it’s doubtful.
Can he play the outfield? If he can make himself available in the corner outfield positions and the infield and hit he might make it out of Spring Training as a bench guy.
I like Christian Colon
Our pick is high in the draft so we have a chance at him
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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Someone had mentioned he wasn’t a 1-5 pick and more of a 7-10. Andy has said he will draft the most talented player available and not from a position of need. Keep in mind that after this season we’ll know more about which pitchers will stick and which can be traded for a shortstop, big bat, or, if Bell or Snyder don’t pan out, a third or first baseman.
Solid starting pitchers are more valuable than hitters.
Yeah it would be a reach to get him
I just hear a lot of great things about him, Taillon seems like he could be in our range
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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Everyone says that...
…but clearly, based on the 2009 draft, he’s lying. Matt Hobgood is a great high school pitcher, and a great prospect. And he may even be the high school pitcher taken in the first round with the best chance of reaching his ceiling. But he simply wasn’t the most talented player available.
There are a lot of great possible choices for our draft pick, all of whom would be excellent additions to the Orioles system.
P.S. Solid starters are not more valuable than hitters. It simply isn’t so. However, developing your own solid starters is more important than developing your own solid hitters, because pitching is more prone to fluctuation, in part because pitchers are a lot more likely to get hurt. The variance in performance and greater injury risk increases the risk in investing in pitchers in free agency, so teams are wiser to invest in hitting and try to have an abundance of cheap pitching to overcome attrition.
There’s some truth in your comments about the Os draft picks. Hobgood was good but not the most talented player available, that’s true. It becomes true when you look at the second round on, but, you’re right. So, what is the mentality of Stockstill and MacPhail? Sign the player that has the most talent AND has a good attitude and work ethic? I’d say that is a little closer to the truth.
I was suggesting that ‘solid’ meant #2 or higher. In those situations, it seems as though pitchers have a higher yield when traded than a comparable position player.
I don't know that they have a set mentality
I think that they see attitude and work ethic as very important, to be sure. But with the Givens pick, they clearly were willing to take talent that comes with makeup issues as well. I look at this draft and see the Orioles adapting their strategy to the circumstances. In a draft light on elite talents but filled with a plethora of late first round quality players, take a cheaper one instead of overpaying for someone like Turner who should have been the tenth best player in a deep draft but was one of the five best in this one. In a draft loaded with high school catchers with talent and signability issues, take the one who fell the furthest in Ohlman. Go overslot for pitchers with high ceilings but injury issues, but take a lot of them, knowing that increases the odds that you’ll get lucky with one of them. If Devin Harris had signed, it would have been perfect. So I’d say the mentality is to look at their draft position and the draft class, and create a strategy to get the most out of both.
And I just can’t agree on the trades. Mark Teixeira brought Texas a bigger package than Sabathia or Lee brought Cleveland. Johan Santana cost the Mets nearly nothing. Florida got a huge package for Miguel Cabrera, and unloaded Dontrelle Willis to boot. I think that largely the trade market behaves like any other, and is ruled by supply and demand, and that remains in flux.
I still can’t understand the Johan Santana trade and Dontrelle Willis isn’t a good example because he was coming off a terrible year. He was a throw in.
An example of a position players that didn’t yield that much is Matt Holliday (both times)…I can’t think of others. Ugh. I should concede on this one.
Same thoughts for me
I wouldve loved Tyler MAtzek in that pick. His ceiling is high with potential for 3 plus pitches.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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I wish I had the BA article that said Hobby was flashing 3 plus pitches in his debut in the ML. He too has the chance for 3 plus pitches. Both the fastball and curveball are plus pitches now and the changeup which he “flashed” as a plus pitch. If you throw away your preconcieved notions of the hierarchy of top prep arms from the 09 draft. Throw away who was said to be better, and look at their scouting reports, I personally can see why Joe Jordan would say Hobby was highest on his list. Every one of these top prep arms had a plus fastball and a plus secondary pitch(for the most part). Hobgood can touch mid 90’s just like everyone else. He now is said to flash a changeup, what makes Turner or Wheeler or Matzek so much better? Is it worth $3-4M more?
We gotta understand the circumstances before saying AM(who has really nothing to dowith the draft) was lying when it was said we would take BPA. In the upcoming draft, Taillon is clearly so far the superior talent of HS arms. It is much more defined even this far away from June.
The top prep arm going into the 09 draft(Matzek) really only had one solid plus pitch which was his fastball. His secondaries all projected to be plus or flashed plus, he just had a ton of projection and polish.
And to make mention of another above remark, I don’t think Colon would be a “reach” at 1:3. Taillon, Whitson, Cole, Ranaudo to me would be better fits at our slot, but Colon at 1:3 is somethign I would prepare to be disappointed about…….

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