Our Biggest infield WEAKNESS going forward...

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 7, 2009 5:14 PM EST Comment 29 comments

I know that many folks here love Brandon SNyder, and I do too, but....

1st base right now is our biggest weakness as far as in the positional perspective of our future. AM has filled up every single hole in our lineup and field. It of course helped that we had a decent core of strong young(for the most part) vets like Markakis and Roberts. But the only big hole we have right now is 1B. Snyder looks to be a ML hitter, but due to the fact that he will have to basically reach his ceiling to be a good 1Bman for a contending team, I see that as our last hole...Our OF is set with Kakes, Jones, Pie, and Reimold. WHoever is not playing the field that night can man the DH slot. Bell looks to be our future slugging 3B, BRob will be our prototypical leadoff hitter. Wieters will be our masher catcher. I don't mind even having a guy like Cesar Izturis out manning SS providing GG defemse behind our good young pitchers, even if he isn't hitting a ton, but at 1B, we will need good production.

We have one of the best if not the best crop of young pitching systems in the minors. Between Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Erbe, Johnson, Britton, Hobgood, Henry,Cowan, and Berry I am sure we will find ourself 5 starting pitchers each good enough to start on a contending team. The bullpen will be full of live arms from the minors, some who came up as good SP prospects, others who came up strictly as relievers. but regardless it should be set.

It all comes back to 1B. If Snyder gives up a .850 OPS every year, I am happy, I am content with him being our starting 1B, but if not, he needs to be replaced. If he gives us .775 OPS with average defense, he is not our guy for the future. We need to find us a masher at 1B who can carry our offense, a bat to put in the middle of Jones, Reimold, Wieters, Bell and Pie. In most leagues, this would be considered overkill, but in the AL East, we need the production from every single angle.

IMO our team currently contructed:

C: Wieters

1B:(Snyder)?

2B: Roberts

SS: Izturis

3B:(Bell)

LF: Pie

CF: Jones

RF: Markakis

DH: Reimold

SP: Guthrie

SP: Bergy

SP: Matusz

SP: Tillman

SP:(Arrieta)

RP:Hernandez

RP: Mickolio

RP: Johnson

RP: Berken

RP: (Perez)

RP: Hendrickson

RP: (Lebron)

RP: Uehara

This team currently contructed can do some damage. We have guys with so little experience, that every single game they will get better. They are still getting acclimated to the ML for the most part. Now, if we had that 1B prospect that was a hands down masher, like Bell is at 3B, then we would be in a good bit better shape. What 1B prospect do you guys feel would complete our core and make our team a well rounded solid team?

IMO, Kyle Blanks would be tremendous to have. As would a guy like Smoak or Yonder Alonso.

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First base isn't a real concern to me

It is just too easy a position to fill. We have Snyder, and if he doesn’t succeed, Waring within our high minors to give a shot to. We have Wiggy, who is an adequate platoon partner for someone like Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, or Carlos Delgado. If everything else works out (a big if) that is more than adequate.

Of course it would be great to have Kyle Blanks or Justin Smoak or Alonso. But the problem is that to acquire such a player, you have to break up the core that you outlined above. Are you prepared to deal Chris Tillman for Smoak?

by James F on Dec 7, 2009 5:28 PM EST reply actions

I agree

I like the idea of a masher 1B prospect like Smoak or Blanks, but we would also have to give up someone like Tillman or another prospect

Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com

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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

My thing is this though, we have the pieces in the rotation(between ML and MiL) to be competitive in the future. We have 4 slots full right now, with Arrieta, and Britton all set to be ready by the end of next year or the beginning of 11 at the latest. Basically, at every single position, and pitching slot we will have a prospect or player who looks to be good enough to start on a World Series team, with the exception of 1B possibly. If Snyder actually is able to hit .290/.370/.475, then I will feel confident with him as well, but that is basically his ceiling. How many prospects actually obtain their ceilings? If he falls short slightly, then he becomes a .775 OPS player, and with average defense at 1B, that is not enough. I don’t care if we have Babe Ruth as our DH, we need to maximize the production from every possible position. With 1B being the easiest position to get good production from, why settle for less? We are in the toughest division in baseball. I feel it is necessary to get a good firstbaseman who will help us win in the future…..

I understand that 1B is not our biggest problem right now, but if you read the OP it says the biggest weakness in the infield. Furthermore, 1B isn’t our biggest weakness right now, but since we doin’t look to win a WS right now, I don’t feel that our present weaknesses are as problematic for the team as the future ones are, especially when we have answers for the present day weaknesses in the rotation. When its all said and done, as I illustrated above, 1B will be our big weakness.

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 8, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions

Britton JUST finished A+ ball.

I can’t imagine he’ll be seen in 2010. Of course I thought that about Matusz, too, so what do I know.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Dec 8, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

He could be ready by 2010, but 2011 is more realistic. What I am getting at though is that we have such tremednous depth at SP which is our current weakness. In 2 years though SP won’t be our biggest weakness. We have Bundy, Beal, Hobgood, Berry, Cowan, Henry, Tolliver, Martin, Coffey, Drake, Zagone, Wirsch all coming through the ranks. This doesn’t even put mention to the arm that we take this year in the 1st round. There are a few arms, some even HS in the 1st round of the upcoming draft that could be in Baltimore before Hobgood and Bundy. We need some strength at 1B. If Townsend develops the way we hope, then I retract my statement, but Snyder himself should not be the basket we are putting all of our eggs into.

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 8, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

Brandon Snyder...

…hasn’t put up an OPS over .850 since rookie ball.

by sabertooth5185 on Dec 9, 2009 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

Well, he posted a 848 OPS at Fredrick in 08 and in 09 in Bowie he posted a 1018 OPS before struggling in Norfolk. The reason people are so high on Snyder right now is because he has been improving so much in the last 2 years. And if you include his stints in the AFL against AA type competition, I believe he was over .850 every time there as well as HWL.

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 9, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

we had aubrey huff manning first last year...

so i’m content with snyder. plus the kid hasnt even PLAYED at the ML level and we’re already knockin on him

by twistedlogic on Dec 7, 2009 5:44 PM EST reply actions

Snyder will NOT be a MLB cleanup hitter.

He may hit .300 with 35 doubles and 15 HRs at best. To compete in the AL East, the Orioles will need a masher at 1B. Not an aging Delgado or an “on-base machine” like Nick Johnson or another Aubrey Huff (or new Aubrey). To compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, they will need a Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols type hitter behind Markakis and in front of Weiters. Justin Smoak or Blanks might be able to become that masher, but they aren’t yet.

The Tigers need salary relief and Cabrera is costly. I think the Orioles could pry him loose and should do it. He would absolutely transform the Orioles lineup and make all stars out of Jones and Markakis.

by fuddnelson on Dec 7, 2009 5:59 PM EST reply actions

Enough with the Cabrera talk

Every report for the last week has said that the Tigers have no interest in moving Cabrera. This whole thing is based on the misnomer that the Tigers are having a fire sale because they want to trade two other players. It has no basis in reality.

Not to mention getting Cabrera would require Matusz, Britton, Snyder, and another fringe prospect. Doesn’t seem to make much sense for a team that is trying to finish up the rebuilding process.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 7, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

+eleventy billion

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew_G on Dec 7, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions

I simply disagree

Snyder will probably not develop into a prototypical cleanup hitter, to be sure. Of course, lots of players who were not prototypical cleanup hitters have been superb in that role – Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez come to mind.

But I simply utterly disagree that the Orioles need a prototypical cleanup hitter playing first to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees. First of all, the Red Sox don’t have one – Youklis is great, but not a Pujols/Cabrera type. For most of the Yankees last two decades, they haven’t had one either – Tino Martinez was not that player and Giambi was the DH more than the 1b. The key is to have an offense that is above average. The Yankees have had prolonged success in significant part because they get well above average production from two spots – catcher and shortstop. It isn’t a coincidence that their first basemen have changed over their run while the players at those two positions, Posada and Jeter, have not. The Red Sox won two titles in part because they had two of the top ten hitters in the game in Ortiz and Ramirez, and neither played first base.

To give an example of what I mean, lets look at the numbers. Derek Jeter posted 7.4 Wins Above Replacement last season; Cesar Izturis posted 1.3. Jeter had a .390 wOBA; Izturis a .280. In comparison, Miguel Cabrera had a .402 wOBA. Nick Johnson? His wOBA was .373. Simply put, even an average first baseman is a pretty decent hitter.

by James F on Dec 7, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

If Snyder hits .300 with 35 doubles and hits 15 HRs, I will be happy with him and that type of production, but what if he hits .270 with 25 doubles and 15 HRs? That is not enough. We need more. Waring would probably be better than that, as would Townsend.

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 8, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

This such a bullshit argument

It doesn’t matter what position the production comes from, it matters that the production happens, if you can get Teixiera like numbers out of your Catcher, then you can live with Jorge Posada type production from your 1B, seriously.

"I hate making excuses. If I suck, then I suck. And I suck. That's the way I'm playing. If you suck, you suck. You have to take responsibility in this game. Right now, that's the way I feel. Yes, I suck." - Jose Guillen/quote of the year

by getxstoked on Dec 7, 2009 6:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I thank you

Who knows? Maybe Josh Bell becomes that masher they’re looking for. Maybe Reimold starts hitting 30 or more homers.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 7, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

That's true

but the Orioles really don’t have that Teixeira bat right now, and that makes it a weakness. Wieters or Reimold or Bell could become the cleanup hitter, but it’s more likely that they are more of a mid-20s home run threat with good on-base skills. Which is, you know, fantastic but does leave the team wanting for a little more power.

Luckily, first base IS easy to fill with a slugger, even if there isn’t anyone available right now to do so. It’s really not that gaping of a hole.

"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"

by Andrew_G on Dec 7, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions

right

but lets think about Jorge Posada type production

this is a catcher who has AVERAGED .277/.379/.480

this is a catcher who over a ten year span has hit .280/.382/.485

If Brandon Snyder can OPS .867 in an average year he will have more than exceeded expectations.

by ItsBenFeldman on Dec 7, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions

rec'd

i don’t really care who it comes from as long as we get production.

by twistedlogic on Dec 7, 2009 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

Adam Dunn?

I’d like to see him inked to a 3 year deal next December to play first. I’d also like to see the Orioles help out the Reds by taking Bronson Arroyo (and his hefty contract) off their hands along with Yonder Alonso for Brandon Erbe.

Re: the positional argument…one of the things that annoyed me about the Cal years is that it seemed like the Orioles thought ‘well, we’re getting awesome production from short, so we can get nothing from another position.’ The Orioles need to figure out away to get some middle infield prospects soon. Hopefully Givens turns out to be just that.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Dec 8, 2009 2:11 AM EST reply actions

I love Adam Dunn

But he’s DH only.

Some Day, Matt Wieters Will Make The Cooperstown Crowd Laugh By Talking About The Time He Batted Behind Melvin Mora And Luke Scott. -Keith Law via Matt Wieters Facts

by Stacey on Dec 8, 2009 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

Donkeys kick

They don’t catch balls.

by Dr Orpheus on Dec 8, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions

I would rather see

what Brandon Erbe has to offer than watch Bronson Arroyo flounder around in the AL East. We know what Arroyo has to offer (which won’t be much)…Erbe has an extremely high ceiling IMO.

by sickuvitall on Dec 8, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

Really it's Erbe for Alonso

And given that Alonso’s value is higher than Erbe, I am hoping the Reds would be that desperate to rid themselves of Arroyo’s $12.5M contract…

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Dec 8, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

I don't care where the production comes from

as long as they find a cleanup hitter / first baseman. Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Reimold, etc are all good young ballplayers. Bell and Snyder are potentially good too. None of them changes the way the opposition pitches to the guy in front of them, though. Jones and Markakis would be so much better if the opposing pitcher simply didn’t want to pitch to the cleanup hitter following them. The Orioles do not have that fearsome hitter, yet. I personally don’t think Adam Dunn is that hitter either. Maybe the Orioles can win without one, but I don’t think so. They aren’t interchangeable, but look at the 1Bs around baseball: Pujols, Cabrera, Youkalous, Helton, Morneau, Howard, Fielder, etc, etc, etc. I think the Orioles need a masher at cleanup hitter / 1B.

by fuddnelson on Dec 8, 2009 9:53 AM EST reply actions

In a year or two

we will have a much better idea as to who will succeed among our plethora of prospects. Hopefully Andy and the gang keep the pipeline rolling and we can set ourselves up for a potentially huge trade for just the person you are speaking of.

The reason I think that a future trade is the best option is that I don’t believe there is much available via free agent 1B mashers in the next few years. And even if there was, who is to say we would suddenly find the ability to snag him…

by sickuvitall on Dec 8, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

Well...

Hopefully, after we start winning some games, other FAs will see Baltimore as a much mroe desirable place once again. Other FAs and agents are apparently already seeing more appeal here than there used to be according to AM.

Regardless, I personally would rather get Prince Fielder next year(I think he is a FA then) so we don’t have to give up any of our talent. Joe Jordan is definitely setting our system up to become an elite system in a couple years once all these recent draftees get their feet underneath them. We have never had the amount of young pitching prospects in the low minors as we now have. We are just awaiting break outs……

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 8, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Unless Townsend develops more quickly

I haven’t seen any amongst our recent drafts, either. I know Townsend had a bum wrist last summer, but is he the only masher in our entire system? Waring and Hughes have shown some power I suppose, but not enough to shoulder their way onto the major league roster. Why is it Texas always seems to have power hitting first basemen in their system? They draft them!!! Texiera, Gonzalez and Smoak in quick succession? Sort of like the LA Angels with shortstops. Are we the starting pitching expert drafters?

by fuddnelson on Dec 8, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

Future lineup

Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Weiters, Bell, Scott(1B for now), Any DH

That is 7 guys with 20+ HR power. If a couple get to 30, you are pretty much in the top 5 every year without a “masher”

I don’t really see a power draught or the need for Ryan Howard, though that player would make a nice bonus.

by Mr. E on Dec 11, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions

Thats the point...

We won’t necessarily need another masher, but in the AL East, you need to be as strong as possible at every possible front. If we have payroll flexibility and our 1B is hitting 15 HRs a year, why not upgrade?

Also, to add to the mix, Pie is a guy capable of 20 HRs. In 09, even when considering his horrid start, he was still on pace to hit well over 20 HRs over a full season.

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 12, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions