BP forecasts

by ItsBenFeldman on Feb 10, 2009 8:00 PM EST Comment 27 comments

So Baseball Prospectus forecasts the Orioles to be scoring, and giving up the second most runs in all of baseball. To me, this is a very good sign. Obviously scoring a lot is good, beyond that none of the projections on offense seem particularly crazy. Markakis is expected to hit .286/.368/.466, B-Rob to hit .274/.355/.428, AJ .278/.331/.470 (with 22 HR), Wieters .311/.395/.534, and Pie to hit .274/.333/.435

All of these seem reasonable to me. This team is going to score some serious runs.

The pitching makes me feel good too, for maybe a sort of twisted Orioles-ish reason. It is projected to be so goddamn bad, that it actually can't really be worse, and could be way better. If these projections pan out, the team would have a pythag. of 76-86. If even ONE of our pitchers exceeds expectations (i.e. not having an ERA of 5.72), this team should be better than that. It also gives me real hope for 2010 and beyond. The offense is only going to get better, all of are young bats are still 2-3 years away from their peaks, and the old, solid, boring bats (Huff, Luke, Wigg, Mora) are pretty easily replaceable.

But again, the pitching is going to be so bad, that even if Matustz and Tillman and Arrieta don't all pan out, or are just "ok" This offense will be able to provide a ton of runs. The O's look to give up 898 runs this year. 5.5 runs a game. If in 2010-2011, the team's pitching is just mediocre (not great), we could expect to give up...770 runs a game (4.75 ERA). THEN even if the offense doesn't improve We'd be looking at a team that scored almost 100 more than they give up. If the offense does improve modestly, as we should expect, this team could very well lead the majors in runs scored in 2010-11. If the pitching DOES work out, it is not hard at all to see a team that scores 900 and gives up 725. That's big time playoff material.

Sorry this is rambling, but it's got me all hot and bothered.

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Eh

The projections aren’t bad, but a lot of that offense comes from their insane Wieters projection of a 940 OPS. I’ll take the under on the Orioles finishing top 3 in the majors in runs scored.

I do agree that this team has a nice offensive core in place and it will be able to compete as soon as next year if the young pitching comes through.

by dkdc on Feb 10, 2009 8:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah, but...

i think they seriously undervalue markakis, roberts and guts. i’d be pretty satisfied if doc jones and pie hit at those projections and the wieters projection is ridiculous. fwiw, they also have ty wigginton doing a pretty solid job.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Feb 10, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Those numbers for Markakis and Roberts look low to me – Markakis hasn’t hit below .300 since his rookie year, and hit .291 then. And now he’s supposed to hit 5 points lower than his worst year in his 4th year in the league? Where did that come from?

As far as Guts, remember how well he pitched last year? It got him a 10-12 record to go with a 1.209 WHiP and 125 ERA+.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on Markakis and Roberts

Both should outperform their projections.

Also, if Wigginton and Freel are used properly to allow Luke, Huff, and Pie to sit against lefties, EVERYONE should see their numbers turn out better than the projections.

That should take some of the sting out of Wieters inevitable falling short of his projection.

They have Guthrie pegged about right, IMO. His peripherals haven’t been as good as his ERA the last couple years, and he’s more of a league average starter than an ace.

by dkdc on Feb 11, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

5 points of BA is virtually insignificant

His OBP projection strikes me as low, considering what he did last year.

If Wieters hits those numbers he’ll be one of the best rookies ever to suit up.

by pipkin on Feb 11, 2009 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But .286

would be a 15 point decline over last year.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

even that's what,

like a dribbler through the infield every couple weeks? People like round numbers in baseball, but .286 vs. .300 really ain’t no thang. Especially if his OBP is as high as it’ll be.

by pipkin on Feb 11, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

it would be a 20 point decline over the .306 he put up in 2008. Sure, it may not be THAT statistically significant, but upon what are they basing a decline? What is in his peripheral numbers that suggest a BA of 20 points lower?

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well i suppose that's a legit question

PECOTA rules all. You must bow before your master.

by pipkin on Feb 11, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm as big a fan of Nate Silver as anyone

but this just doesn’t seem to have any statistical basis.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

babip

i know it’s not as significant for batters as pitchers, but he was at .351 last season. that probably isn’t sustainable. he was tied with b.j. upton for 7th last season in mlb.

his walk rates will probably stay high and his power may improve, but i’d bet nate silver saw that babip number and is forecasting some regression to the mean.

by joet on Feb 11, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm betting Nate Silver

isn’t the one running the numbers now. He’s a tad bit busy in other pursuits…

http://fivethirtyeight.com

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sure, but it's not like he doesn't have access to the numbers anymore

i’m guessing he can find them if he looks hard enough

by joet on Feb 11, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not teh point

I think he’s on permanent hiatus from BP as he does his politics thing. I’m sure someone else runs the numbers now.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, i gotcha

i just assumed he was still there and put out the projections because you mentioned him above. i have no idea who does the work on those. regardless, my guess is that babip is the statistical basis behind markarkis’ expected decline.

i can easily see .289/.381/.492 though, which is better than the projection but still reasonable.

by joet on Feb 11, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

that is high. yeah, that probably explains it

by pipkin on Feb 12, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baltimore was a 68 win team last year, had a Pythagorean record of about 72. All this while getting literally 3 wins below replacement from the shortstop position. Even if the Orioles only get 1 win above replacement from Izturis (likely we’ll get more) that brings us to a 76 win team. In addition we are losing replacement level Milar and (more or less) replacing him with Felix Pie. Pie’s bat won’t be great, but the projection systems on Fangraphs all seem to believe he won’t be terrible. In fact, he’s projected to be a slightly better hitter than Millar was last year, and he will offer a big upgrade to defense by playing essentially 2 Center Fielders. That’s another win right there. Add that Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel are much better bench players than Brandon Fahey and Jay Payton. Also, Gregg Zaun is already a better catcher than Ramon Hernandez, and Matt Weiters should be even better.

Of course, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, and Melvin Mora all had career seasons last year, and all three of them could see a steep decline which will wreck all this improvement elsewhere.

But that aside, this team could be decent even with the disaster that is our starting pitching rotation.

by math_geek on Feb 10, 2009 9:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, and Melvin Mora all had career seasons last year

I submit that none of them did. 2003 for Huff, 2005 obviously for Roberts, and 2004 for Mora.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"I was trying to rob him. And he took my gun from me. And the gun was full of blanks. And he shot a blank into my eye. And now I cannot see from this eye ever again, the doctors say."

"Well to be honest it sounds like it's all your fault."

by SC on Feb 11, 2009 6:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct

But I submit that Huff and Mora are VERY likely to be worse than last year. Roberts I could see maintaining a pretty equal year.

by punkrawka on Feb 11, 2009 7:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

absolutely

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"I was trying to rob him. And he took my gun from me. And the gun was full of blanks. And he shot a blank into my eye. And now I cannot see from this eye ever again, the doctors say."

"Well to be honest it sounds like it's all your fault."

by SC on Feb 11, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I misused the term career season

really what I meant to say was that all 3 could easily decline from their 2008 numbers, which reduces the projection of the team.

by math_geek on Feb 11, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Link, please?

I’m a subscriber and I’m not seeing the article you’re referring to at all.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

BP is one of the worst websites to try to navigate. Great content though.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 11, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's horrible

Does anyone else get the problem where it just randomly logs you out every time you go to a new page?

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"I was trying to rob him. And he took my gun from me. And the gun was full of blanks. And he shot a blank into my eye. And now I cannot see from this eye ever again, the doctors say."

"Well to be honest it sounds like it's all your fault."

by SC on Feb 11, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

For such great content, it’s like their web guys are stuck in 1998.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 11, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I never get logged out but

sometimes it takes forever to load and also sometimes I have to refresh a few times because the right side column is completely black. I’d rather they spend their money on content than style but still.

[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8

by Stacey on Feb 11, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never got logged out either

But yeah, it can be brutally slow. Also, I hate how you have to go to different pages to get different stats. Why can’t I get all of a players stats from their page?

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 11, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs