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Around SBN: MLB Trade Deadline: Where each team stands right now

Pitching a F? Please! this is what the national media thinks of us!

Sporting news O's preview today gave us bad reviews, but an F for pitching? It is not that bad!

http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20090220/?sub_id=CGWohaSOFgxDR&folio=CGI

go to page 18 for review.

also a d for trembly? I think hes done ok considering. the mess he inherted.

Your thoughts are welcome, i'm not saying we're going to win the division, or wild cardbut i certainly think we're improved over last year.

Also I think locking up Robrts and Markakis to long term deals at least shows that the front office is willing to spend to keep good talent, which could improve morale.

I also feel Uehara will be a good starter. Yes he's just been in the pen, but pitchers can go from the pen to stater and vise versa(Brett Myers is a great example off the top of my head) if they have the desire to..

yes 3-5 are shaky, but Rich hill is healthy, and who knows with liz and hendrickson, but not many teams have solid 4 and especially 5th starters.

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.

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Really

If the orioles this year dont deserve an F in pitching, then what team ever will? Guthrie is the only reliable pitcher, and what happens if he goes down?

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 20, 2009 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Probably should have read your post, before writing mine.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 20, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Its all good

I think its needless to say that we agree on this topic though

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Feb 20, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Orioles pitching doesn't deserve an F, then who does???

How many teams have just 1 player who’s a lock for the rotation?

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 20, 2009 1:02 PM EST reply actions  

+1

Maybe only the Nat’s and Pirates have worse rotations. We have some upside though with Penn, Albers, Patton, Liz, and Hill in the mix. JJ might even get a shot at the rotation.

"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall

by birdman on Feb 20, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know

but i think we are more of a D -

by Michael18 on Feb 20, 2009 1:07 PM EST reply actions  

Actually, despite the fact that we definitely deserve an F for pitching (even that's a little generous)

The commentary of the paper clearly shows they have no idea what they are talking about.

The bullpen is almost as thin as the rotation. Sherrill is solid, but setup man Chris Ray is coming off Tommy John Surgery. Behind him are struggling veterans like Jamie Walker and raw fireballers like Dennis Sarfate.

That’s just criminal. So to rip apart our pitching, they start with the bullpen, which isn’t actually bad. Then they make no mention of Jimmy Johnson, despite the fact that he was our best reliever last year. Also, Sarfate was fine when he was a reliever, he just sucked as a starter. Sherrill, Johnson, Ray, Sarfate is a perfectly decent top four relievers. It’s not elite, but whatever.

by math_geek on Feb 20, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions  

also, giving our manager a D because the Orioles lost games last season is a joke. Like it’s his fault the pitching sucked.

by math_geek on Feb 20, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

i must be missing something

I know that he left out Johnson, but of the part you quoted, isn’t that all true? Plus even Sherrill had a difficult second half. I think our bullpen could be anything from fantastic to wretched as I’m a believer that relievers are too volatile to accurately project (outside of the super awesome ones like Mariano).

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 20, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

all of that is true, though

Sherrill is OK, Sarfate is raw as all hell, Ray is a TJ guy, Walker was awful last year. The bullpen is worse than you’re giving it credit for, it’s just better than it was when it was historically bad a couple years ago.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 20, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Tommy John

isn’t that bad for a pitcher anymore. A lot of guys come back able to throw 3-4 MPH faster since the docs are able to improve on nature. Not saying its a lock that Ray is going to be awesome, but he at least deserves a chance to fall on his face.

"When they get drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, we expect them to play like that. Are we surprised? No."

by UMBC Oriole fan on Feb 23, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think his point is

there’s a chance he won’t be effective. Sure, TJ isn’t the dice throw it was 20 years ago, but it’s not a slam dunk, either.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 23, 2009 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Its a valid point

but I would much rather see a TJ guy with big league experience over a brand new kid from the minors.

"When they get drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, we expect them to play like that. Are we surprised? No."

by UMBC Oriole fan on Feb 24, 2009 7:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I'll agree with that.

Let him prove he isn’t capable anymore. Not that he was lights out, but he was decent.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 24, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah I know

But all they said is he had TJ. He did have TJ. It is true. I figure he’ll be fine, but let’s not forget he was hardly dominant anyway.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 24, 2009 7:30 AM EST up reply actions  

If we're a fail now then

what were we when we still had Daniel Cabrera?

Seriously, I can’t disagree, and you can’t deny that our pitching staff is a giant question mark. Things could work out and we could climb to having an average staff, but that’s about the best you can expect at this point.

I wish I could find the link on Baseball Prospectus with the RS/RA predictions for 2009. We were going to be at the top of the division in RS and the worst in MLB for RA, something like 825/925.

I don’t think DD deserves a ‘D’ at all.

ZAUN! ZAAAAAAAUN!

"I understand that it's a big-boy world and I have to move on."

by CoachOfEarl on Feb 20, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

BP also has us

as a 4% chance of being the AL Wild Card.

That sounds terrible, until you realize NO THER TEAM in the Al outside of the AL East has a higher % chance!

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 20, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope that we kick the BJs ass this year

Everything else is gravy

ZAUN! ZAAAAAAAUN!

"I understand that it's a big-boy world and I have to move on."

by CoachOfEarl on Feb 20, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

really?

Not that I doubt it, but that seems like a major slight to the Central. Twins/White Sox were not that out of it.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Feb 20, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

No one outside the AL East

has higher than a 2.6% chance at a Wild Card in their PECOTA model. Seriously. It’s behind their subscription firewall, or I’d post the projected standings.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 20, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Inidand & Twins

are projected at 83 and 79 wins, which would put them at least 12 games behind the AL East #2 finisher (NYY), in their projections

They project BOS, NYY and TB as all over 90 wins. Can you imagine winning 91 games and coming in 3rd in your division?

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 20, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

judging by the past 11 seasons....

i’d say F is about right. You shouldn’t be given any thing above that if you can’t win. This is a professional team being paid to win and please the fans and represent Charm City. If you can’t give the fans what they want then you’ve failed. We’re moving in the right direction but the birds are so rich in pitching history that the last 11 years should be considered a horrific failure. Until we see W’s we should all be angry as shit that we’ve signed donkeys like omar dahl, russ ortiz, bruce chen, mike dejean, yada yada yada, on and on. Looking at this winters moves hopefully we’ll be moving up the grading school sooner than later.

by wiggitywhales on Feb 20, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions  

We have the potential to be higher than a F

But right now, our best starter has a totl of wehat, 17 ML wins? The rest of the rotation have fewer than 50 ML starts combined? What did we THINK that staff woudl earn? Maybe the potentialof teh BP should raise us to a D- in preseason grades, and I fully expect the season grade to be higher, but we are what we are – a 5th place team with a bunch of pitchers that haven’t PROVEN anything yet.

Although the analysis of our BP by TSN is just stupid. Ray, Sherrill and Johnson have proved themselves to be at league league average, and in Johnson’s case, slightly better.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 20, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

It's harsh

To me, F is a failing grade. I’ve got no problem giving last year’s staff an F, but with so many guys being an unknown at this point I’d say they’re an Incomplete. If you must grade them, slap a D on it.

I’m not outraged or anything, but it does seem a bit much.

by Brotz13 on Feb 20, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

Nope.

That sounds like my 9th graders – “Don’t we start with an A?”

Nope, you start with a ZERO, because you haven’t earned anything yet.

This staff hasn’t done anything to be above a grade of F. Yet.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 20, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I can see your point

Like I said, I’m not expecting much. When a rotation has the potential to include Mark Hendrickson and/or John Parrish, it’s certainly not making the dean’s list.

by Brotz13 on Feb 21, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll settle

for not being on double secret probation at the end of the season.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 21, 2009 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

+1 for the reference

In 2008, I suppose Trachsel was our D-Day. Whereabouts unknown.

by Brotz13 on Feb 22, 2009 8:17 PM EST up reply actions  

while bad, there is hope

Our pitching may not be record setting bad, but it should be pretty awful. I do hope that the team commits to giving guys like Penn, Hill and Liz a chance to see what they can do (I define chance as at least 100 innings). Fortunately, as an organization, starting pitching is a strength, or at least it will be soon enough. In just two years, a possible scenario:

Guthrie – Guts remains strong, and hopefully firing Boras means he’ll extend with the club

2 of Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta duplicate the Rays success of Garza, Kazmir, Price, Shields to be good front/middle starters

2 of Hill, Penn, Patton, Albers, Hernandez, Liz, etc pan out to be good back end starters

But in 09, I think Pie would get more use out of his glove if he sat in the bleachers.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Feb 20, 2009 7:47 PM EST reply actions  

the Orioles strongly deserve their F until they prove otherwise

The Hardball Times has us giving up BY FAR the most runs in baseball. The pitching is atrocious.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 20, 2009 8:52 PM EST reply actions  

I have a feeling...

we lose a lot of 7-5 games.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 21, 2009 7:37 AM EST up reply actions  

That's about right

The Orioles had the second-worst pitching in the American League. They had one decent starter and two decent relievers. Other than that they were terrible. George Sherril is a cruddy player who had the worst season of his career last year. Maybe some of the young guys will get better, but until that happens their pitching is justifiably described as shitty.

Dave Trembley is a lousy manager who uses a lot of out-producing strategies. The manager can only do so much damage, so maybe they can overcome it, but he’s not going to help anything when he’s giving up outs in a division that has the teams that were first, third, and fourth in on-base percentage last year.

Roberts and Markakis both are pretty good and Wieters looks like he’ll be pretty good as well, but they don’t have that big catalyst hitter in the middle of the lineup that all the other AL East teams have.

The Orioles are a lousy team who might improve in a few areas next year, but still need a lot of help.

by yurizanow on Feb 21, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

Well, gee, if you put it THAT way...

guess I won’t bother making travel plans for the playoffs, after all.

A few quibbles.

*George Sherril isn’t a cruddy player. His ERA+ was 96, just below league average. – 4% below league average, actually. His WHiP was the worst of his career, that’s true, at an insanely high 1.500. That said, his 5 year ERA+ is 112, meaning last year was the aberration. For his career, he’s slightly better than average.

*I’d argue Dave Trembley isn’t a lousy manager. True, the win totals are what they are. But scoring runs wasn’t the O’s problem last year. In fact, as a team, they were 8th in runs scored and 8th in OBP. The team’s OPS+ was a solidly mediocre 99 – league average. Given what he had to work with at SS and 1B (Millar was terrible last year, folks), that ain’t bad. It’s the pitching that killed us.

*I’d also submit this statement is factually incorrect: “they don’t have that big catalyst hitter in the middle of the lineup that all the other AL East teams have”. Mr. Huff, would you mind reviewing your 2008 stats?

Oh, that’s right, .304/.360/.552 with an OPS+ of 135 and a OPS of .912. That’s pretty solid in the middle of the lineup.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 21, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Then we have two this year

around June 1. Because I don’t want to see Wieters before Mother’s Day – don’t start that service year clock!

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 22, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Miscast pitchers is a problem

Sherril is fine as a lefty specialist or an inning with matchups. Ray may or may not be a closer and more a setup. Johnson was effective as the seventh and eight inning guy but now the league will know him. All three are coming off arm weariness or injury from last year.

Baez and Kam may surprise a little on the upside. Walker might not make the team if his elbow/shoulder isnt right (which is why I am surprised we havent looked into one of the lefties in the FA market this kid Perez not withstanding). Liz and Albers might be the long guys or in the minors depending on the Henrickson and Baez roles. I really think Sarfate wont make this team unless he is throwing more strikes although he might depending on the “numbers”. He and Penn may get first dibs until someone pushes them aside. But the nice thing is there is some legit competition on the way.

By the middle of the season I want a rotation of Guthrie, Uehara, Hill and Patton and right now who ever pitches the best (maybe Pauley). I really dont want anyone out of the arms like Liz, Hernandez, Britton, Bergeson, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Erbe up unless its a waste for them to throw one more pitch in the minors. Let 2009 be the polish/earn the right to be in the big leagues season for them.

As for the grade I could care less. I can see the talent in this organization for the first time in a while. Some guys are going to be moved into roles and add depth and the starters are going to have to earn the right. Its more competitive and that is a nice first step. We need health though, esp with Hill and Patton. These two are both legit upside arms if healthy.

by sanders833 on Feb 21, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

and as usual I forgot

a few guys-namely Parrish either starting or being a lefty in the pen as well….nothing against all the others but I mostly hope they latch on else where.

by sanders833 on Feb 21, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Sherrill

I’d say is an average closer. Here are the numbers as to why:

IN SAVE SITUATIONS:

37 games, 35.2 IP, 1-2 w/ 31 saves, 3.03 ERA, 32 K’s, 16 BB

Those numbers are good for a closer who is not a dominant strike-out power pitcher.

IN NON-SAVE SITUATIONS:

20 games, 17.2 IP, 2-3, 8.15 ERA, 26K’s, 17 BB’s

The point? Don’t use him any other time.

In 18 games from July 1st on, he was scored upon in 6 appearances.
1st time) JJ had blown the lead and Sherrill was brought in to keep it close. He gave up 3 runs.
2nd time) Sherrill blows 1 run lead and the game
3rd time) Gave up 3 runs to Yankees in bottom of 9th while we had a 4 run lead.
4th time) Blows tie game in bottom of 9th to take the loss.
5th time) Gave up 3 run HR in a meaningless game when O’s were down by 6
6th time) First day back from injury, he gives up 3 runs while the O’s were up by 7

I will not deny that he was worn down; I am not making that argument. What I am saying is people keep talking about his awful second half ERA but fail to mention how he was hurt for a month during that span and how most of the runs were scored when it didn’t decide the game. He got a loss from a tie game and a blown save, so 2 out of 6 decided the game. One could argue that him giving up runs after Johnson on July 6th also helped decided that game given the Orioles coming back in the 8th. Even with that, he screwed up 3 games. During that same span, he had 5 saves and a win. Unfortunately, there were not many opportunities to close games at the end of last season.

Ultimately, I hope to see Chris Ray back at the helm closing for the Orioles, but Sherrill did good last year as the closer, and his second half has been skewered and exaggerated. Sherill will do fine this year.

by PWubbs on Feb 21, 2009 2:55 PM EST reply actions  

I'm not comfortable with that

It treads too closely to “he was really great except for the third of the time he fucked-up horribly.” I don’t buy those “clutchy” statistics anyway and even if they’re true, I’d rather have a pitcher who is fine regardless of the circumstances and doesn’t get unreliable when the stakes are low.

The bottom line is that the guy is 31 and had a 1.50 WHIP, which is worse than 2 out of 3 of Jorge Julio’s seasons as the Orioles’ closer and only slightly better than his third. I don’t think he’s going to be giving Rivera or Papplebon a run for their money any time soon and it’s pretty easy for me to imagine a lot of Oriole fans are going to be yelling at the TV next season. If you like him, fine. I wish they’d traded him for a bag of old baseballs last year.

by yurizanow on Feb 21, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Skepticism

The guy was reliable when we needed him, and he is only a stopgap for the job until Ray proves he is healthy enough to handle it full time.

Besides, he is under team control for a few more years, and he is very useful in a bullpen that is lacking quality lefty pitchers.

by PWubbs on Feb 22, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

George showed he can close without totally dying if he HAS TO. He shouldn’t, though. He’s a lefty specialist. His numbers against RHB predictably tailed off from where he was in 2007 and he did stink down the stretch.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 22, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Guthrie

Avoiding being a One-year wonder? He’s made over 25 starts the last two seasons and had pitched very well both years. His ERA the past two years is better than Dice-K, AJ Burnett, and James Shields. Guthrie avoided one-year wonder status last year. Great journalism.

And say what you want about our closers but we’ve improved over the last 8 years at least. I’ll take Sherrill with a touch of Ray over the Groom-Trombley-Willis Roberts pu-pu platter of 2001.

by JohnnyEutaw on Feb 26, 2009 1:28 PM EST reply actions  

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