Point-Counterpoint: Brian Roberts' 4-year, $40 million extension
by Scott Christ on Feb 20, 2009 6:16 PM EST
in News & Rumors
Email
Print
I realize most of you guys are going to just be very happy that Roberts has signed the extension. There are reasons to be happy. There are also reasons to be very skeptical and wonder how this will look down the line.
Point: He's one of the best second basemen in the league. Good leadoff man, good glove, good speed, good ballplayer.
Counterpoint: He's 31. He just had the second-best season of his career, and before that he'd had a good year, too. Three of his last four have been very good, with one truly exceptional. The other one when he hit .286/.347/.410 wasn't so great. It was OK, but at $10 mil per numbers like that could start being a problem.
Point: He's a Baltimore Oriole. He's grown up in this organization and by giving Markakis an early extension and raise and extending Roberts, the team shows that it takes pride in the few good players they've developed this decade.
Counterpoint: If he starts declining, it won't matter where he came from.
Point: He has skills (patience and speed) that do tend to age fairly well.
Counterpoint: Second baseman simply don't age very well at all.
I'm not concerned about how this deal will look in 2009 and 2010, the year the deal officially starts. I AM concerned about how it will look in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Of Roberts' ten most similiar batters, picking out the second basemen leaves you with Fred Dunlap, Mike Lansing, Adam Kennedy, Fernando Vina and Damaso Garcia. Roberts' numbers are also a bit screwy because he's had two careers: pre-2005, and 2005-present. He was a very different hitter before 2005.
Dunlap was out of baseball after his age 32 season, but that was the 1800s and he died at the age of 43, too. Slightly different world at the time.
More contemporary guys like Lansing, Vina and Garcia offer up similarly bleak outcomes, though. Lansing was done at 33. Vina was done at 35. Garcia was out of baseball at 34.
Kennedy is still playing and turned 33 in January. He had a nice bounce-back year in 2008, which didn't make him a "good hitter," but put him back at his career norms after a disastrous 2007.
When Roberts' contract ends after the 2013 season, he'll be 36 years old. If you think this extension is the end of the Roberts talks every year about whether or not he'll be traded, think again. This contract is going to make them think long and hard all the time about where Brian will be by the end of it, and whether or not they better sell high at some point.
The guy is one of my favorite players and I love having him on the team. I'm glad for the time being that he'll be staying because I like him a lot and he's a damn good player. I just don't want to act all surprised if in two or three years this deal isn't looking so good for us, and we as fans are complaining that he's not "earning his keep" relative to the contract.
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think
that what is interesting about those comps is that Roberts isn’t really similar, at all, to any of them, because of his truly bizarre career pattern. Looking at his PECOTA comps is much more valuable, there, we see-
Ray Durham
Don Buford
Jose Offerman
Chuck Knoblauch
Bill Doran
Harold Renyolds
Tom Herr
Pee Wee Reese
Jim Gilliam
Dick McAuiffe
Davey Lopes
Craig Biggip
Tony Phillips
Eric Young
Barry Larkin
this is a much more impressive list, with 3 HOFers (assuming Biggio and Larkin), and plenty of good late career work. Buford, OFferman, Knoblauch, Doran, HR and Kerr were done early, but mostly not until 35 or so, and some of these guys (Phillips, Larkin, Lopes, sort of Craig Biggio) maintained value through their 40th birthday.
PECOTA also forcasts a fairly slow decline for Roberts in the next few years, with projected slash stats of .273/.352/.430 at the age of 34 in 2012. Frankly, I don’t mind giving a little up at the end of the deal for four years of excellent second base work, particularly when the 5th doesn’t project to be awful, just sort of middling.
Beyond that, there are two issues, one, we have no middle infield prospects north of L.J. Hoes. and there is little free agent help on the way. The 2010 free agent class at 2nd will have a 35 year old Placido Polanco, and then the dessicated corpses of Ron Belliard, Marlon Anderson Omar Infante and Jamey Carroll.
Second, Roberts is a perfect lead off hitter, something which do not have a ready replacement for. If he went away, who would lead off? The right answer is Nick Markakis, but that would never happen. I shudder to imagine Adam Jones and his .300-.335 OBP at the very top of the lineup (as my mother would say, God love him, but he can’ t take a walk to save his life).
So I say its a good move, yeah it would be nice if it was a 3 year deal, or if it was 4 years at 8 million per, but these are small quibbles.
Lopes is one of the guys I always think of when wanting to be totally optimistic about B-Rob.
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
by Scott Christ on Feb 20, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
but these are small quibbles.
I disagree. $10 million a year was far too much considering how weak the market is right now, and the fourth year was overkill.
It’s amazing to me that MacPhail saw the Hudson deal go down, which was supposed to set the precedent for Brian’s contract, and then proceeded to hand over a ridiculous amount of money. Roberts shouldn’t have had any leverage after the events transpired in LA.
I believe Andy and co. felt pressured to sign Brian as he has a connection with the fans, and something needs to keep Baltimore on the map. People would’ve whined about the leftover Tex money if MacPhail had fully committed to rebuilding.
Signing BRob to this kind of a deal affords the FO the opportunity to become complacent and not pony up for a new 2B in the near future. With no sense of urgency, I cannot see MacPhail dealing a veteran for a prospect, as if we have any trade pieces left, or drafting a mature 2B in the early round(s).
I’m fairly certain that Andy will let BRob sit at 2B until we contend, and then pick up a productive FA as he has stated many, many times that he hopes to buy bats and grow arms. Bringing in a free agent like Roberts when we are competitive isn’t a terrible option, but I’d prefer young guys instead.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Offerman
I hope he doesn’t end up like Offerman
by uneasy rider on Feb 21, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
A Good Move
I think it is a good move. One point I’d like to make is that the year he batted .286 was the year after his gruesome elbow injury. We obviously don’t know what would have happened if that hadn’t occurred, but I think that he likely would have had a better year.
I personally don’t think he will decline as fast as some think. He is one of the best conditioned ballplayers out there. Even if he declines slightly in the last 2 years or so of his contract, he will still be the same hardworking player and a great clubhouse guy. While an organization would never pay that type of money for a clubhouse leader, it is better to lock him in, instead of risk losing him after this season. That would have set the rebuilding process back further creating a hole up the middle with no immediate option at 2nd base. We just fixed the problem at short, and the Orioles should continue fixing problems, not creating new ones.
by oriolefanatic111 on Feb 20, 2009 7:28 PM EST reply actions
great piece
My sentiments exactly, SC. It sucks that there was a shit trade market for him this off-season, but I fear that we’ll be overpaying for a declining middle infielder at the exact moment we finally have a chance to be any good (2011). I like Brian Roberts and I dig all that he’s done for the community, but between the lines, this decision is questionable at best. Also, Orlando Hudson signed for 1 year and 3 million dollars today.
It would have been nice to have traded him 12 months ago for a couple middle infield prospects, but who knows if that was offered. Of course, the rumored Cubs package looks pretty blech too. But at this point I wonder if a first round pick and a sandwich pick would be better for a competitive Oriole team in 2012 than signing him to this rather generous extension…
Librarians are hiding something
Hudson
his price was depressed in part because of the draft picks. Also, while superficially he and B-Rob may appear similar on offense, its important to remember that Hudson is doing all that in a hitter’s park, in the weakest division of the weaker league, and that his once sensational defense has declined a great deal (although it is still above average), His PECOTA comps are much much less impressive :
Tom Herr
Jose Vidro
Bill Mueller
Johnny Ray
Kevin Seitzer
Ron Oester
Jose Vizcaino
Pete Runnels
Red Schoendienst
Casey Candaele
by ItsBenFeldman on Feb 20, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
his price was depressed in part because of the draft picks.
And B-Rob would have the same problem next offseason.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
yes
it would have been next season, but it isn’t now, I meant that Hudson, in the same situation as B-rob, would not have signed for 3 million. If he were with a team looking to extend him, he would have gotten more money, as the draft picks would not be a problem.
by ItsBenFeldman on Feb 20, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
If he were with a team looking to extend him, he would have gotten more money, as the draft picks would not be a problem.
AZ could have resigned w/o giving up draft picks.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
hudson v roberts
While I don’t doubt that Brian is better than the O-Dawg, at this stage in their careers, Roberts isn’t that much better (4/40 v 1/3). According to fangraphs, over the last 3 years Roberts has been worth $50M. Hudson has been worth $31M. But I hope the team doesn’t regret giving him all that money over all those years when the team just might be halfway decent. Of course, at the end of the day, you are worth what the market says you are worth, and I would think the Orioles would’ve been better off offering him arbitration next year before make this nice of an deal.
Librarians are hiding something
“I don’t know I’ve been around many players, if any, that are as dedicated to keeping themselves in the kind of shape that Brian Roberts does,” MacPhail said. “Plus, we did academic studies in the front office as to the longevity of second basemen. By the time Brian is through with the contract, there is an easy history of guys that have played well at that position up to that point in time. Knowing the player, that was something we had some comfort with.”
from here: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-osnotes0220,0,2248999.story
I’ll put my money with Andy and the FO here
"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08
That is exactly what I was thinking. I have heard numerous times about his work ethic previous to that and can see it on the field. He also doesn’t show too much wearing down at the end of the season which could be a good sign. I agree, we should trust McPhail and his staff, because so far they have been doing pretty well.
by oriolefanatic111 on Feb 20, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
academic studies in the front office
Yeah right, they probably looked at a few comps on baseball-reference.com.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
This isn't Flanagan.
I’m pretty sure Mr. MacPhail actually knows what he’s doing, and he doesn’t seem to be the type to throw good money at bad baseball players and/or guys who will be bad baseball players.
"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08
he ran the Cubs
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
by Scott Christ on Feb 20, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
point taken.
"You have to discipline yourself so you don't come out with something just to say you made a trade. You have to make sure you come out better than you were before." - Andy MacPhail, 7/31/08
when they made the playoffs
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
The absolute power of the McPhail quote blows me away
Can you even fathom 25 or 26 other teams’ front office making that kind of statement – “we did academic studies…..”!
I love this guy. He actually – after years in the dung laden colon of baseball- found a man that actually has a plan, sticks to it, does research to justify his plan, and is able to adapt on the fly.
Go Andy Mac..Go.
There's no crying in baseball
I don't really care about the money.
People think that “oh, you save those $10M a year and it will be better spent in 2011”. Well, maybe. But I’d father rather have a solid nucleus for a few years in a row.
Look at the Mora signing. Excusing his abnormal second half last year, Mora is clearly an aging, overpaid, average 3B at best. He’s making $9M this coming year, I think. But is he blocking anyone at third? No. Is his contract what’s preventing us from spending on FAs? Also no. We’re not spending on FAs because this isn’t the year to do it. Do you think our offer for Teixeira would have been higher if we didn’t have Mora’s contract? Of course not.
If we were a guy or two away, or had a Matt Weiters-type 3B in the pipeline, I don’t think for a second that MacPhail wouldn’t find a way to lose Mora, just as he did Tejada last year.
So this signing is fine with me. Stability is what this org needs right now, and B-Rob’s staying here (along with the Markickass signing) signals to a lot of people that we have turned a corner. A year from now if we’re actually competing and trying to make a trade happen in July, B-Rob being here facilitates that.
You’re worried about what we do with B-Rob in 2011? I’ll wait until 2011 to lose sleep over that one. We should have such problems.
Point:
Look how cute he is in that picture, with the glove on his head!
I can’t actually be objective about it now because I’m happy (plus tipsy)! I’m glad Brian will be around for the next five years.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
From Fangraphs
Roberts’ fielding has declined since 2006, and does not shape up to get any better. CHONE sees Roberts at around a .360 wOBA worth 17 runs. Roberts is also a good bet to play over 150 games and amass 650 PA. With that in mind, his 2009 win value components break down like this: +17 batting, -2 fielding, +23 replacement, +2.4 positional. Put together, Roberts looks like a +3.6 win player. In a normal market, that production commands $16.2 mil. If he declines by a half-win each season, and the average annual dollars/win stayed $4.5 mil, with a 10% discount for the contractual guarantee, the four-year deal would be valued at $46 mil.
Initially the deal looks better for Roberts, as he simply was not going to get this much elsewhere. Normally, it might favor the Orioles as they would have a hard time bringing in as productive of a player for $10 mil or below. If Roberts had been a free agent this season we would have a better idea of what he could have commanded but, as of now, I’m comfortable saying that the deal favors Roberts over the Orioles but that the Orioles are still getting a very productive player at a seemingly below market price.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
I just want to note that
There’s a distinction between market value and player value. Roberts may be worth $46M over the length of his extension as calculated by the formula used by fangraphs, but the market is clearly not paying that type of money for a 2B.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
Right
I know the distinction. And I do think the O’s overpaid on Roberts in the sense that he wouldn’t have gotten that much in the open market. But I think the fan graphs calculation shows that Roberts will be worth the contract in the long run, which is important to recognize. I especially think that’s the case when you look at the 2010 free agent class for 2B from cots:
Marlon Anderson NYM
Ron Belliard WAS
Jamey Carroll CLE
Mark DeRosa CHC
Omar Infante ATL
Placido Polanco DET
Brian Roberts BAL
Freddy Sanchez * PIT
You could say that the O’s could have waited until the season ended to try and sign Brian for less, but there’s no telling what would have happened then, and with the current minor league 2B options and the other FA options, the fact that Brian will live up to his contract in player value I think proves that it was a good move to lock him up and focus on other things.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
That's the crux of the matter
Bran’s market value may not be as much as we signed him for, but WHO ELSE are you going to get to play there with anywhere near the production for significantly less? His value to this team is greater than his free market value. Now, you can certainly take that as an indictment of the team for allowing itself to be boxed into such a corner, but it is what it is.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
But I think the fan graphs calculation shows that Roberts will be worth the contract in the long run, which is important to recognize.
I don’t know… I LOVE fangraphs, I do, but it’s still some formula that a bunch of nerds developed. It’s helpful in thinking about the game, but it isn’t connected reality in that GMs don’t pay what fangraphs say, they pay what the market dictates.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
A slight quibble...
As is ERA, OBP, OPS, OPS+, ERA+…
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
Having him locked up for that long might make him more attractive for other teams to trade for.
If they decide to go that route.
I personally like the deal and am glad that he’ll be around. Emotionally he’s my favorite O, but I also think he’s a really good player and I frankly would be surprised if he has the steep drop off that other 2b have had.
When you do similarity scores of players up to age 30 it gets a little better. Lonny Frey did well until age 35 and then flamed out right at 36, but he was a long time ago. Jimmie Dykes had a very productive career also a long time ago. You get Barry Larkin who was freaking awesome. Placido Polanco is pretty good too. Orlando Cabrera would be disappointing but not awful. Gil McDogald flamed out fairly quickly. Adam Kennedy is there, and then you roll out with Craig Biggio. That would be pretty good as well.
This deal is definitely a risk, but it definitely could work out well for us.
I think its a very good signing for all the negatives(Which there are some)the positives far outweigh them.
The deal while maybe seeming expensive is(I think)less than Roberts would have got in free agency, where at this stage the Orioles would have little chance of signing someone of Roberts caliber.
Who would play 2nd? You would have to pay at least $6 mil for Hudson who is injury prone…signing Roberts nets you one of the top 3 players at his position for 4 years at a price that doesnt break the bank,doesnt block any prospects and also shows players that the organisation is willing to reward club grown talent.
I think Roberts will age very well as a 2nd baseman and leadoff hitter. He’ll never be less than an average defender(And figures to be better than that for the most of this contract) and will age much like Damon as a lead off man because while having good speed, he doesnt rely on his speed to steal bases.
Saying oh he might fall off during this contract is like saying Markakis will have an asteroid hit his home tomorrow(God forbid)Roberts shows no sign of being an injury waiting to happen and has been pretty consistent in his production.
As has been stated hes a good community guy which is always a bonus especially when said player is one of the top 3 at his position.
I think the Orioles have had one of the better offseasons of teams this winter: Pie, Hill, Izturis, locked up Markakis and Roberts and figure to shed a load off payroll next winter.
Which makes it 2 good offseasons in a row since last season they actually raped the Mariners in the Adam Jones trade.
Be happy :)
I for one will be looking forward to playing as the Orioles in MLB 09 The Show lol!
The 09 O’s will be ok in the game…its MLB 2011 that I can’t wait for!!
The blues have always been American, as American as apple pie. The question is...why?
by sickuvitall on Feb 21, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
ps3?
if so my name’s the same on there as it is on here. no one i know plays the show. it’d be nice to have someone to play against.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
hey
I have a ps3 and im getting the show the day it comes out
name: WillDaBeast5
by NickMarkaces on Feb 21, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Great move by both sides
I think it’s a great move by both sides.
For the O’s:
- They know have 5 of 8 potions locked up for at least 4 years in Roberts, Markakis, Jones, Pie and Wieters. That’s a pretty good core of players right there.
- They lock up 2B, an area where free agency doesn’t provide many reliable answers.
- They sign a player whose best attributes aren’t dependent on youth. Roberts hits well, but not for power. He steals well, but not due to speed, more technique and strategy. He shouldn’t decline with age at a fast pace.
- With the Markakis signing, it shows the Warehouse’s willingness to sign its own to long-term, big $$$ deals. It may not matter so much with Wieters as a Boras guy (he’s gone after 6 service years), but there must be some of those young arms in the system who now have proof that performance will lead to a good contract from the O’s.
- The deal itself isn’t overspending. Considering it’s buying his age 32-age 35 seasons, at the current market, it’s not really overpaying for a top 5 leadoff hitter.
- It doesn’t preclude the O’s from shopping for free agents next year. With the amount of contracts coming off the books, and even with Markakis’ and Roberts’ new deals, the O’s could possibly be under $50 million for next year. That leaves plenty of $$$ to go shopping for those other 3 positions and 1 more starter.
For Roberts:
- Security and stability. He doesn’t have to move, he gets more $$$ than were available in this year’s free agent market, and the annual “Will B-Rob B Gone?” discussions can end.
- He is surrounded by a good young team that’s looking for a leader. He can be that guy, and he’s still young enough to be a contributor when they do get good in 2-3 years.
- Let’s face it, his All-Star chances are pretty good here for the next 2 years until Wieters claims the O’s spot for 5 seasons. (I’m sure it’s not why he signed)
- He’s finally got a front office that knows what in the world it’s doing. He can finally take the field with an end in sight to the futility. And the pressure is off this year to come out blazing hot to drive up his trade value so he can go to a contender.
- The money won’t get any better this off-season. With the economy continuing to tank in 2009, this deal may look really, really good to any other 2B this time next winter.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
by duck on Feb 21, 2009 7:22 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I'm leaning towards this take as well
I think there may be a little more downside risk for the O’s than you mention here, but realistically 2B is such a thin position that it would be hard to find someone as good as even a declining Roberts for reasonable money — and this doesn’t cost draft picks the way a top free agent signing would in a couple of years (though who knows what will happen with that system down the road).
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Feb 21, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hey its a great topic
I thought the two hardest tasks Andy was going to have going in the offseason was do we go for Tiexiera and what becomes of Brian.
The first thing Andy said he wanted to do this offseason was sign Nick and Brian. So Andy had already made up his mind to keep Brian. He actually was helped, I believe by the declining market as I think Brian wanted $12 a year for four and the O’s were able to get him a little cheaper, kind of buy three get the fourth year free. I believe Andy has laid out his blueprint for this team over the next five years and is comfortable with Brian in it on the field and budget wise. Hudson signed a one year deal that with incentives maxes out around 8 mil although I think $3.6 guaranteed. Next year I think we might see more of these split deals where players with injuries in their past are going to have to earn the money on the field. Of course, in time the player leverage most likely will return but it could be years.
Is this a great deal in terms of buying the most likely declining phase of Brian’s career? No, but I dont think it will be a terrible deal, it shouldnt cripple the club in terms of making deals and there is a chance the O’s get positive value for the deal. I mean its not a Michael Young type of reach. I can live with the consequences. Its done so lets plan accordingly and embrace it. I love knowing Brian and Nick are going to be here along with Adam, Matt and hopefully Felix. You cant ask for two more professional players then Brian and Nick and they should have a great influence on all the young talent coming up through the organization. They also know how to take a pitch, Adam and Felix are you listening? Andy M sent a great message to the organization and the fans.
As for Tex, I think Andy handled that perfectly as well. He put a legit offer on the table and told Boras if Mark wants to come here lets talk about. They never came back. Fine. Two players who want to be here are now signed and we have plenty of talent to infuse into this organization, make trades, payroll flexibility, a high draft pick and a opportunistic GM.
Like the deal
I think Roberts’s career #s are skewed by a) the fact that he was such a late bloomer (pre-2005 seems hardly relevant now), and b) his injury before his ‘06 season, which it’s not hard to imagine depressed his stats. Looking at his stats for the last 4 years, he’s a freakin stud 2B, and tthis deal looks quite reasonable, and that’s without accounting for the post-injury 06 (which was still quite respectable for a 2B).
Then of course are the other factors – that this locks up another position for many years, that we have no one else who could play 2B, that I hardly think it’s going to hinder us financially (especially with all the $ coming off the books after this year), and that any dropoff likely shouldnt be a factor for at least 3 years.
I like zknower’s point about Mora’s contract – he’s probably overpaid, but is it really crippling us? No. Now, that’s not a reason to extend someone, but I’d say Roberts is a much better bet to live up to this deal than Mora was. He’s certainly worth more than Adam Dunn, who signed for 10 mil/year as FA.
I am a little frustrated with Roberts’s poor Septembers, but I like how he hit better against lefties last year. Maybe an aberration, but maybe it shows he’s capable of improving his weaknesses.
We paid too much.
Particularly given this market and the fact that by this time next year your typical ballplayer could very well be begging for 60% of what they’re getting this year. We already know that ad revenue will be down this year, and not even because people won’t be watching, but because companies will be slashing their advertising budgets across the board. I don’t think it’s any stretch to believe that attendance is going to drop as well. There was no reason we had to do this deal now and every reason to wait. I like Brian Roberts and feel good that he’s being paid and all. But I felt the same way about Melvin Mora a few years back…and now it doesn’t feel so good anymore.
Good points
except two years from now we could be contenders and if Brian would have had to take less money he would probably be more likely to take it from the Cubs or Mets….
I am not worried about payroll much for 2010-2011, other then Nick and Brian, Koji, Guthrie there arent any high priced contracts currently on the books that bother me. So the Orioles have a built in mechanism to correct payroll. Obviously if revenues severely decline all growth will mostly be internal but then all clubs not in NY will face the same issues leveling the playing field. The O’s arent in a bad place, similiar to 2002 when they signed Tejada, Lopez and had a great chance for Vlad. The big difference is the O’s pipeline is very robust and the O’s are a team that can add payroll they might just be players in free agency or payroll purges by hurting teams.
What service year is Guthrie in?
Is he even due for a free agent contract by 2010 or 2011? I thought at worst he’d be arb-eligible.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
Just arb
I couldnt really think of anyone that would have a large contract, just figured the O’s might lock him up or that he would get a fairly large arb win by then.
I actually think Luke would be in line but I dont see him being here…or the O’s willing to say pay 5 million or so for his production. I guess George would be in line but kind of the same feeling, he falls back into a lefty specialist role or is gone. Adam might be locked up by then and Ray might get a closer arb contract like Jenks but he has a long way to go on that.
I can't see the O's
seriously considering “locking up” a bullpen guy like Ray. Haven’t we learned our lesson that high $$$ bullpen guys aren’t worth the high $$$?
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
I think the O’s paid a home team premium. If Roberts hit the market next year, I doubt he comes near this payout. He should stay productive for a few years, and now we hope it’s five. Markakis also got a pretty sweet deal compared to other young players recently locked into long term contracts. Again, I feel the O’s are in a position where they are paying a higher premium if only to show they aren’t the same sad sacks they’ve been for years and want to attract and retain good players.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Official Sponsor of Camden Chat GameThreads
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
