Adam Jones, Breakout Candidate
by Stacey on Feb 22, 2009 8:00 AM EST
in News & Rumors
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PrintJay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus used PECOTA to predict 2009's list of breakout candidates and Adam Jones made the list.
Adam Jones, Orioles, CF (.278/.331/.470, 3.3 WARP, 36% Breakout Rate)
Acquired from Seattle last winter in the five-for-one Erik Bedard swap, the 23-year-old Jones is expected to be a cornerstone of the Orioles' resurgence. His first year didn't go quite as planned thanks to an ugly 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate and a dreadful September (.228/.262/.380) following a return
from a broken foot. Despite his problems controlling the strike zone, PECOTA sees enough in Jones' combination of speed, power, and defense that his top comparables are Andre Dawson, Ellis Burks, Dwight Evans, and Garry Maddox, a quartet that combined for 13 All-Star Game appearances, 10 Top 10 MVP finishes, and 25 Gold Gloves. Speaking of the Oriole outfield, keep an eye on recent acquisition Felix Pie, who fell just short of this list and who will flank Jones in left field.
2009 is a a big year for Adam. He didn't have a great 2008, but it was his first year full time in the majors and we knew we'd have to be patient. The comps listed above are pretty exciting, I think. If Adam can end up with a career like any of those (except perhaps Gary Maddox who's name I didn't know and had to look up) I'll be quite happy.
All reports from Spring Training are that Adam bulked up this winter so if he can improve his plate discipline and add in some power he could end up being one of the best things about the 2009 season. PECOTA seems to support that as his projection gives him just a slight raise in batting average but considerable boosts in OBP and SLG.
Isn't it nice to have good things to say about the Orioles?
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wait up...
isn’t the fact that pie is a less dramtic breakout candidate almost as notable?
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
I think Jones has a WAY bigger upside
that Pie.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
i don't think anyone...
would argue against that proposition at this point and that’s why the prospect of pie being a breakout candidate IS so notable. he’s pretty much been written off.
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
by j.q. higgins on Feb 22, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I really think that if our position players play to their potential we’ll have one of the better offenses in the division. The pitching is the real question mark, obviously, but I think most people seriously underestimate the strength of our outfield.
sure
but without pitching you dont get taken seriously…
Only by the Cubs
who are in ‘Win Now’ mode and lack the patience for much player development on the big club. There was a lot of discussion around the trade about Pie having a resurgence here.
Pie’s ceiling is probably .290/.350/.460 if he doesn’t turn into Corey Patterson. Sickels wrote a good article on him
ZAUN! ZAAAAAAAUN!
"I understand that it's a big-boy world and I have to move on."
by CoachOfEarl on Feb 24, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
I know I shouldn't say this.....
but, I hope he didn’t “bulk up” with any help. Hope he has a great injury free season – we need him to be healthy throughout 2009 and beyond.
Thinking your mind was my own in a dream.What would you wonder
and how would it seem? Neil Young - 'words'
It's only 10 pounds
and most likely the first time he’s done serious lifting in his life. He probably put on those 10 pounds in the first 2 weeks. He admitted he was living on Wendy’s at ST last year. Now, the fitness complex where he an B-Ron worked out all winter sends him food. A better diet and a regimen of lifting seriously for the first time in his life, they probably had to slow him down from packing on too much muscle.
And he knows he needs plate disciple – either Roch or Schmuck posted a piece where he talked about it with Mark McLemore, and he knows if he wants to get that #2 spot in the order – and it seems like he really wants to be there – he MUST show more discipline at the plate. I expect his walk totals to go WAY up this year, and his OBP to go up as well.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
minor leaguers always live on fast food
Their meal per-diem is like 20 bucks or something ridiculous like that. Ask some athlete to eat 3000 calories on 20 bucks and he’s heading straight for the cheeseburgers.
I dunno what his signing bonus was, but his monthly salary wasn’t much, I’m sure. Now that he’s making that 400k a year he’ll be good to go.
That, too.
Easting better + serious weight training for the first time + qualified trainers = 10 pounds of muscle, easy. No additives or preservatives required.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
injury
I think the broken foot derailed him a bit last year. He still had no plate discipline, but he settled into a pretty nice grove June-early August last year.
Hopefully Terry Crowley can manage to teach this kid a little something to compliment his raw skills.
I'm skeptical that you can learn plate discipline this late in the game
But PECOTA is right more than it’s wrong, so I’m hoping for the best.
actually Dawson
and Hunter never have and their careers arent to bad….
Yeah
After I wrote this I looked up those comps on B-R.com and neither Dawson or Burks ever had too many walks. Dwight Evans could work the walk, though. We all know Adam will never walk as much as Nick or Brian, but he still does need to improve.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
I don't mind if Jones doesn't walk much
his defense more than makes up for any deficiencies.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
i don't know about that...
but walks are not the be all end all, for sure.
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
by j.q. higgins on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
When the computer meets the tools
its always nice….
and yes its great to see Pie right on the next group.
I just loved seeing
him learn how to hit a breaking ball. It was awesome.
Adam Jones is someone that doesn’t provoke any concern from me. WIth him, it’s like step back and let him learn…in a year, it’ll be step back, and watch him work….
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
I'm perfectly happy to be patient with him
as long as he play D like he did last year. It was a joy to watch and will keep me from getting to annoyed at him swinging at all those breaking balls in the dirt. I think he’ll figure it out at the plate, but I’m not sure it’ll be this year.
i think there's more than one way to build a team
and wanting guys like both markakis and jones is a great example of how we might be finding a fantastic middle ground right now. i know the yankees have a great offense, but it’s definitely been a slow, station to station offense. the take and rake approach is generally really effective, but there are also times when stretching a single into a double and taking a base on a passed ball is not just exciting, but can lead to extra runs too.
and minnesota does the speed thing and manufactures runs, but they just don’t take enough pitches. i think the o’s are doing a nice job of developing both sides – markakis, roberts, wieters, and huff are in the obp camp and jones and pie should be able to play the faster style. jones should eventually develop enough power to compensate for a .330 – .345 obp (god, i hope he at least gets there), plus the defense and baserunning to still make him a different kind of threat. obviously roberts combines the two styles and nick does a little bit. plus the outfield defense should be outstanding…
i guess what i’m saying is, you can do it the minnesota way, with good defense and trying to “manufacture” runs but not many walks. or you can do it the yankee way, with huge power but lousy defense and station to station baserunning. if given a choice, i’d lean towards ny, but i’m kind of psyched that we’re blending elements of both styles.
on a sort of related note, a friend of mine asked me which players on the o’s would start for the yankees. and it’s cool to be able to say markakis, jones, roberts, weiters, and huff (at DH) are better than what they have. that’s 5 of 9 roster spots (and i’m including defense here as well). the pitching is another matter altogether…
That's what I'm not getting about NYY predictions this year
Almost everything I read has them at 90 or so wins. But as you said, we’re better offensively at 5 of 9 batting slots in Roberts, Markakis, Jones, Huff (wherever Tex isn’t) and Wieters once he comes up. (Remember, “i” before “e”…)
OK, Sabbathia and Burnett were big adds to Mussina and Wang. I don’t think Burnett will be that useful, because I doubt his ability to stay healthy. Mussina’s almost as old as I am (that’s NOT good) and Wang is coming off a serious injury, and Sabbathia was overused last year.
Sure, the NYY might win 90 this year. But they just might lose 90, too. The circumstances are there for the wheels to come flying off, and certainly don’t see Joe Cool as the manager who can guide them through the storm 2 years in a row, especially with all the drama playing and managing in New York brings.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
I KNEW I was making too much sense
Yeah, so he’s TOTALLY not going to help in the rotation. Just strengthens my argument. :)
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
Speaking of Joba
I’m watching MLBN’s 30 clubs in 30 days thing and today is the Yankees and they are up in arms over the fact that Joba is going to be in rotation as opposed to being in the bullpen. I think it’s ridiculous to put him in the bullpen with that level of talent. Mitch William’s argument is why only let him be in 35 games when he can be in 65.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
there are many in the yankee organization,
girardi among them, i believe, who don’t think joba has the durability for a full ML season.
gonna be fun to watch this story play out all over again in nyc first time he goes on the DL
Unless they have someone waiting in the wings
who is > or = to Mariano, they should make him the 8th inning guy & keep him there until Mariano retires.
You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.
I could not agree less
They should make him a starter until he proves he can’t be one, either because of effectiveness or durability.
I'm not saying it's a no-brainer
He might have the stamina to be a top quality starter for a long, long time.
He might NOT have the mind-set to be a closer (which is true of a lot of good 8th inning guys).
But I always thought the closer is the hardest piece of the puzzle to put into place, so if you have a once-in-a-generation closer who’s career is winding down & his potential replacement shows up at just the right time, that seems like too good an opportunity to pass up.
Right now they seem leaning towards starting him, which is fine – as long as they don’t start yo-yoing him back & forth between starting & the pen depending on where the most injuries are that month.
You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.
I figured you were still in denial
over the fact that you won’t be able to use your favorite Mussina themed picture any more when he pitches.
[Guthrie's] president of my heart. ~PhilR8
There is that
and I’ll spare you now.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
I was really depressed
when I heard that Mussina retired…there goes the Orioles curse to the Stanks. They ain’t won a World Series since Moose joined them. I am hoping Tex continues the streak.
"When they get drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, we expect them to play like that. Are we surprised? No."
by UMBC Oriole fan on Feb 23, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
let's not go overboard
the yankees aren’t losing 90 games this season. every year they do have the potential to do what we’ve all been predicting since around 2005 though, which is get really old really fast. they’re stacked at 1st and 3rd obviously. after that, i don’t know. they’re a brutal, horrible defensive team, so that high priced pitching staff is going to give up some “unlucky” runs if they don’t strike everybody out.
who knows what they’ll get from posada (38 this season). their DH (matsui) had a sub-.800 OPS last year and turns 35 this season. cano is a complete wildcard to me. his obp was .305 last season and it’s not like he plays great D to make up for it. damon? nady? gardner/cabrera? that’s the outfield on a $200MM team?
jeter could have one last mvp type season in him, posada could stay healthy all year, cano and matsui could bounce back… but it’s just as likely that the yankees fall down hard in my opinion. of course, that means winning 88 games, not losing 90 like you said, but still.
the difference
for the Yanks this year though is they wont start with Kennedy and Hughes in their rotation…who went winless all of last season.
Their depth is much better with Swisher and Nady and their bullpen a little deeper. I do agree that Posada and Rivera are keys. But Boston has a ton of maybes as well with Ortiz, Lowell, Drew/Baldelli, Varitek, Lugo and Lowrie and maybe some slight regression in Ped/Youk (1 and 3 in mvp voting, come on now) although they appear to have improved their pen and starting pitching depth. Tampa may go in the healthiest, youngest, deepest. I just wish I trusted their bullpen a bit more (for their benefit).
The Hawk
Adam Jones does seem like a throwback of sorts, never a big on base guy, but still a guy with a lot of value. He may not project to be that middle of the order guy in today’s more OBP-centric game, but he seems like he could be a good #2 or #6 hitter. Roberts, Jones, Markakis and Wieters is a very formidable top 4.
As others have noted, I look forward to just enjoying him develop and being one of the top 5 CFers in the game for some time.
Librarians are hiding something
Adam Jones son!
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
Adam Jones
This player will be talked about for yrs.Adam will hit w/more power ,
He can field with anyone.Loves the game is his key & will be easy to watch.
Tight
I have the exact same tee-shirt (my favorite of many besides my Wieters jersey)
I had never seen a player wear it before
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