Projected Standings

by dkdc on Feb 23, 2009 3:52 PM EST Comment 17 comments

Chone Smith has used his player projections (which I think are the best in the business) to come up with projected standings. It's no surprise that he has the Orioles in last place, but two things are interesting to me here.

1. The Blue Jays are projected to win only one more game that the Orioles. I've become more convinced over the offseason that the Jays are set up to be a big surprise on the downside. Their offense is the worst in the division, by far, and they've already lost a couple important arms for much of the season. The O's probably won't cross .500 this year, but sweet, sweet 4th place may be in reach.

2. The Power Rankings at the bottom have the Orioles as the 15th best team in baseball. We all know that there are substantial differences between the AL and NL, and beyond that the AL East is a whole other level of pain, but it's still a little suprising to see the Orioles projected to be a slightly better than average major league team. And that's WITH a complete train-wreck of a rotation, so it's not hard to get excited about the possibilities if the O's win the young pitcher lottery.

To put that a little more perspective on that, the Orioles are ranked two slots ahead of the Dodgers, who are projected to finish first in the NL West.

Check it out here:

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm

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Those rankings

Have three AL East teams in the top three, and all five in the top 15. I’m not going to put much stock in the O’s playing better than St. Louis or Los Angeles when all is said and done, if that’s what those rankings are trying to imply.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Feb 23, 2009 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The rankings are implying

that the Orioles are a better team than the Cards or Dodgers, but they will end up with a worse record than those teams because they have, by far, the toughest schedule in baseball.

by dkdc on Feb 23, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

But that also means that they think the O’s would finish ahead of the Dodgers if the two were in the NL West, correct? I just can’t buy into the fact that a team with literally one pitcher could squeeze by an organization coming off of an NLCS appearance, irrespective of how bad their off season was.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Feb 23, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why not?

The Dodgers barely beat out the crummy ass Diamondbacks last year. The fact that the Manny-led Dodgers went to the NLCS brightens their season a lot. Before adding him they really were not good. The Giants are gearing up like they can win the division. If the Orioles were playing those teams, they would be too.

Anyway I figure the Rockies win the NL West.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler

by SC on Feb 24, 2009 7:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The NL West

this year may be one of teh worst divisions in history. And I say that as a Dodgers fan.

Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.

by duck on Feb 24, 2009 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming LA resigns Manny

And even if they don’t, they’re still a better team than the Orioles. I’ll agree that Manny did single-handedly save their season, but they have an actual staff, even if our lineups match up.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Feb 24, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Playing the top 2 payrolls in all of MLB 19 times each.

Will do that to a team’s chances. Thanks for the unbalanced schedule, Bud.

From the Land of Pleasant Living...

by OEutaw on Feb 23, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Top 3 teams on baseball in our division

Even if we had solid pitching we would have a tough time

by sc os fan on Feb 23, 2009 8:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That pitching better pan out

I still shake my head over Loewen, Penn, Cabrera, etc. That batch of schlubs was supposed to be the our present pitching staff.

Despite where the O’s rank, those projections still have them getting a top five or six draft pick. If they’re gong to lose, they may as well get the draft pick while the young pitching pans out. They will this time, right?

by drj on Feb 24, 2009 10:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the chances

are slightly better. Here is why:
1) Penn vs Arrietta: Hayden was slightly over-hyped when we drafted him in the first place. Following this, we rushed him through the system and destroyed his confidence a few years back. Jake on the other hand came out of college with only a little hype, was drafted much lower than Penn, and will have the time he needs to sufficiently develop in the minors. +1 for Jake…

2) Cabrera vs Tillman: I am comparing these two due to their similarities in physical stature (noting that Dan is obviously taller though). Cabrera didn’t even start playing baseball until a scout saw him playing basketball as a teenager and thought to give it a try. This, coupled with a fragile mental state, nearly guaranteed that Daniel would not pan out like many unreasonably thought he would. Tillman, on the other hand, has been playing baseball likely since childhood. His mechanics are sound, and he has never been known to lose his cool. +1 for Chris…

3) Loewen vs Matusz: This is the one that kind of scares me. These two are VERY similar from a physical standpoint as well as the hype surrounding their draft status, etc. However, we all know how Adam’s pitching career came to a tragic end. The only argument I can draw in this case is that Adam did not have time to develop his arm strength due to his youth when drafted and the little amount of time he spent in the minors. Brian Matusz has completed a stellar collegiate career and comes to us much more polished and mature than what Loewen did. Plus, I sort of noticed a slight hitch in Adam’s delivery that may have contributed to his elbow issues. It was the way his left arm got from the downward position at the beginning of the wind up to the locked-and-loaded upward ready position just before he threw. It looked kind of awkward…but of course, I am no doctor.

The blues have always been American, as American as apple pie. The question is...why?

by sickuvitall on Feb 24, 2009 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Penn did nothing other than get hit pretty hard hen he came up. His prospect status was a product of PR more than anything else. Loewen and Cabrera never showed much more than “potential”. Both couldn’t locate worth a damn, and we were told to wait while they figured it all out. Wild pitchers don’t discover control after they are in the big leagues. Matusz has the control thing all over Loewen. Arrieta and Tillman are young, and both are a bit above 4 BB/9. That needs to improve.

If anything, I feel good that MacPhail said he won’t rush these guys, as were the previous pitchers. Hopefully the O’s can do better than develop a bunch of arm problems.

by drj on Feb 24, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

in fact, as far as i can tell...

of the pitchers we’ve been sold a bill of goods on this decade, bedard and olson are the only ones i can think of that actually distinguished themselves in the minors.

"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."

--Jerry Reed, on acting

by j.q. higgins on Feb 24, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Loewen did a good job in the minors. He started off rough but he got better at each higher level despite being younger the competition. John Maine and John Stephens put up good minor league numbers. Even John Parrish and Rick Bauer had decent moments in the minors. Unfortunately, that’s about it other than Bedard and Olson.

"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall

by birdman on Feb 24, 2009 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Handy Chart

Orioles pitchers that have made the Baseball America top 100 list over the last 20 years, sorted by their highest rank on the list:

Year # Player
1990 2 B MCDONALD
1992 5 RHODES
1995 11 BENITEZ
2006 13 LOEWEN
2000 15 RILEY
1993 18 PENNINGTON
1991 19 MUSSINA
1996 19 COPPINGER
2009 22 TILLMAN
2009 25 MATUSZ
1996 38 HAYNES
2004 54 MAINE
2004 59 BAUTISTA
2009 67 ARRIETA
2008 69 LIZ
2007 78 ERBE
1998 78 PONSON
2008 78 PATTON
2006 81 PENN
2002 90 BEDARD
1997 96 N RODRIGUEZ
1996 99 PERCIBAL
2007 99 BEATO

by dkdc on Feb 24, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I keep forgetting about Matt Riley. Bautista was grabbed in the FL trade for Jeff Conine so I don’t think of him as a “true” farm hand. In terms of prospects since 2000, there’s really slim pickings if we eliminate recent draft picks. Bedard, Maine, and Riley, woohoo. John Stephens should have made it to the top 100. He wasn’t much a prospect but he tore up the minors at a young age. If Nerio Rodriguez and Pedro Beato can make the top 100, so can John Stephens damn it.

"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall

by birdman on Feb 25, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've never bought into the confidence argument

Every pitcher is going to have to deal with bad outings and have issues with their confidence. If a pitcher is ready then he’s ready. When Penn originally was called up from AA he had a 3.83. The next year when he was called up he had a 2.26 ERA in AAA. I think you need to make the decision on whether to callup or not based on performance, not age and by his minor league numbers, he looked ready.

He did get shelled in the ML, but I don’t really feel that he was rushed; he just didn’t perform. And got hurt. It just seems like every time a hyped player gets called up and fails, it gets blamed on mismanagement by the organization. If you don’t give the guy a shot, you’ll never know what you have.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Feb 24, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs