2009 Orioles = 2008 Rays? No, but...
by punkrawka on Feb 4, 2009 4:19 PM EST
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PrintVerducci thinks it's worth a mention. He does rank us last out of his four possible breakout teams, and does note that we have no actual chance being in the AL East (wait, what division were the 2008 Rays in?), but still, it's interesting to see a national writer noticing that Andy just might be doing it right.
I don't honestly think we're going to make the playoffs in 2009 or anything, but I thought that Verducci's notes about improving on Runs Allowed, and Pythag records, were interesting to note. It at least makes me start to think about 2010 rather than 2011.
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I always hope that we can do something like the first half of the 2005 season
But I definitely don’t expect to be above .500 this year
"Hats for bats, keep bats warm." Pedro Cerrano
or 5th place
"This world extends way beyond this little field of dreams we're dancing in and I want to see that world"
i don't know
With the injuries in the Jays rotation, I wuoldn’t be shocked to see them fall on their face big time this year.
Excuse me
I am trying to be bitter and negative here!
"This world extends way beyond this little field of dreams we're dancing in and I want to see that world"
I am not ruling out 4th place
esp if the Jays trade Roy…
the big difference between the Rays and the O’s is the starting pitching infusion the Rays received. The blueprint is being put in place to compete, you just cant trust young pitchers to actually develop and/or stay healthy but you can definitely see the outline to this plan.
More talent through the 2009/2010 draft, smart trades and money to spend during the season and next offseason gives the O’s a chance to add to the base esp if this market stays depressed.
Here's one bright side
We have FOUR position players of the 8 locked up for at least 4 more years
CF Jones
RF Markakis
LF Pie
C Wieters
The earliest any of those guys can go is Jones, right? That’s HALF our team is locked up for the foreseeable future, including a + defense outfield in its entirety. Corner fielders can always be found, 2B and SS do worry me. But with the pitching we’re developing, and the OF and C set for the next half decade, Andy MacPhail is definitely building a base for success. Even if it’s one seemingly quiet, minor move after another.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
exactly
and probably the case with draft picks is that when Roberts and Huff leave (both are clearly Type A and arbitration worthy), we’ll have 5 1st round picks in 2009. Should be a fun draft.
if the market follows course one more yr
the O’s would likely not offer Huff arbitration…since he would probably earn north of 10 million in arb and he isnt getting Burrell money…
roberts they would offer arb to and love to take him back
they may still offer him arb
because there’s a very good chance that if he plays like he did in 2008 he wouldn’t take arb in the first place. How many players actually take arbitration at his age anyway?
The question is really how well does Huff play? If he plays well, the Orioles will likely take their risk with arb. It is only one year after all, and Huff was worth $19 Million dollars according to Fan Graphs last year, and he simply won’t get that much in arbitration. Worst case, he accepts and you pay him 10 mill for one year, best case he declines, signs elsewhere, and you get 2 first round picks.
Pat Burrel is a good example, but also a bad one because the Phillies management was stupid. They refuse to sign Burrell, then turn around and give 30 million dollars to Raul Ibanez, when Burrell was a younger better player. Last year, Huff was better than both players and Adam Dunn with the bat. I’m not saying he’ll keep at that level (he probably won’t) but a modest decline will make him still really good, and Huff isn’t all that bad defensively unlike Ibanez, Burrell and Dunn.
I dont’ see the O’s offering arb to Huff at the end of the season. If he performs well this year, teams will be reluctant to give up necessary draft picks to sign a guy who doesn’t even play the field. His market will be limited to AL team. After watching Abreu and Dunn twist in the wind WITHOUT a draft pick attached them, I don’t like Huff’s chances in netting a draft pick for us.
"fuck the Yankees and fuck the Red Sox and all their players and fans and former players and fans and their loved ones and pets as well!" sickuvitall
I don't like Huff's chances
of finding a deal. As you said, Abreu and Dunn can’t get a sniff. If the O’s give him anything near $10M a year, he’d be crazy not to snap it up in this market. It’s not like the economy is going to get demonstrably better by Feb. 2010. It may indeed get worse.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
Both sides
are probably going to understand the market a lot better. So lets just say its the same and Huff has a good year. If the O’s were to offer arb they would be paying 10 mil or Huff would possibly have to compete with the same guys again-Abreu, Dunn and an entire new set of free agents. That same 10 mil might get them two players.
So I would see the O’s passing and looking for more value realizing they would be overpaying Huff and that most likely Huff is going to take their offer so no draftpicks are forthcoming.
I think
that the Phillies felt they couldnt offer Burrell a big pay cut so they really never negotiated with him. If the Phillies offered Pat a 2/16 deal at the end of the season he would have thought they were mad. They probably thought the Ibanez deal “was a replacement value deal to a player who wouldnt be offended by the offer” The Philles did that and watched the market decline. Much like Kyle Lohse the early bird got the worm.
I would assume the Phillies would like to revisit this but at the time they thought they were doing the right thing.
The odds must even out
I like all of Andy’s moves, especially the chances he is taking on Hill and Pie. Also, the team will be fun to watch defensively.
Also, the law of averages dictates that some of our young arms must pan out. If you go back in time, the Os have had a rash of young pitchers flame out with injuries: Smith, Stahl, Loewen, Hale, and so on. The gods of math say that things must even out in the long run.
If Huff has the kind of year that makes him an A, the Os should offer him arbitration.
Yup, they do even out. But nobody can say WHEN...
I was long a believer in the shorter rather than longer run for odds evening out in baseball…until the 2002 Orioles. In a sport in which Very Bad Teams win 40% of their games, that 4-32 run — a .119 clip — remains indelibly imprinted on my brainpan.
The ‘09 team deserves to turn up one [1 ] Bruce Chen Anomaly Year Guy, I’ll allow. And that makes our rotation go Guts-BCAYG-Hill-Pray for Rain-PfR(2). This is not very encouraging. But with enough offense — and more strategic bunting by Memlo, of course — we could still end up with 70-73 W. And think about ’11.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
and this might not even hold true...
but my projection was “koji and guts, the rest drive you nuts.”
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
Tell the Cubs
about your theory of everything evening out. I think they’d beg to differ.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
On the other hand, the Bizarro Cubs just can't stop getting into the Bizarro World Series! Every damn year!
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
Bizarrely, yes.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
It’s nice just to be mentioned in that article. It makes me want to say “See.. we’re only two or three years away.” Then I remember that I’ve been saying that for the past 8 or 9 years. But here’s hoping!!!
I believe it a lot more now than then
It’s really just a matter of our young arms coming through. No one expects that this year, but in another year or two we’ll still have a pretty solid lineup, that can easily be supplemented with one FA bat, and a Matusz/Arrietta/Tillman/Guthrie/etc. rotation ought not to look half bad.
I'd love a rotation
that has Guthrie as a #4. :)
If those guys pan out as even moderately above league-average, which would be seriously underperforming their projections, we should be really looking forward to 2011.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
a rotation w/ guthrie as #4...
would be almost unprecedented in modern times. i think he’s a solid 2 or excellent 3 on many clubs as it is.
"When people ask me what my motivation is, I have a simple answer: Money."
--Jerry Reed, on acting
by j.q. higgins on Feb 8, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
I mean honestly
At a minimum, one of those pitchers will flame out completely, and Guts will be at least our #3 (if not #2). But here’s hoping anyway!
I could live with that.
Duck Around - a progressive blog about the Eastern Shore of Maryland. And getting off my lawn.
It has always been a matter of our young arms coming though. I thought a rotation of Bedard/Penn/Cabrera/Loewen/etc. would be the fix for us not that long ago. I am hopeful that Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman can be great but the last 11 years have left me a bit pessimistic. Let’s hope these guys are given the time to develop properly and then, like with any prospects, we just have to sit back and cross our fingers.
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