Picking a closer
by punkrawka on Apr 15, 2009 9:26 AM EDT
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PrintSC posted eloquently about our problems with Sherrill after last night's debacle -- the bullpen as a whole was farking brilliant; Sherril not so much.
Let's live in a fantasy for a moment -- we have four guys in the 'pen who all could legitimately be a closer. All four have some legitimate claim to the role, and all four have some obvious question marks as well. Who would you pick?
SHERRILL
Pros: The established closer. Our all-star last year. Has largely gotten the job done with the biggest casualties being heart attack victims among the fanbase.
Cons: Kind of sucks. Didn't actually deserve to be an all-star. Might be more useful as a late-inning LOOGY.
JOHNSON
Pros: Hands-down the best Orioles reliever in 2008. Appears to be having another great year so far.
Cons: Coming off of some serious shoulder issues. Never closed games before. Doing great in the 8th-inning role he already owns -- why rock the boat?
RAY
Pros: Has closing experience. Has nasty stuff.
Cons: Coming off of Tommy John surgery and we've seen very little of him so far. Was previously known as "Captain Explodes-a-lot" in his stint as closer.
BAEZ
Pros: Has closing experience. Appears to be absolutely filthy so far this year.
Cons: We've seen very little of him this year, and the last two years, to be polite, were an absolute dung-heap.
So, what do you think?
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Here's how I'd manage the bullpen
Informally, in a close game I’d go:
Sarfate 6th inning
Ray 7th inning
Johnson 8th inning
Baez 9th inning
If one of these guys starts to struggle, bring in the next guy a little early and let him get 4 or 5 outs. If a guy breezes through his inning, let him come out for a second inning.
Sherrill/Walker are brought in strategically so they face more lefties than righties.
Bass/Albers/Liz/etc are long relievers.
Note, I don’t think that Baez is the best relief pitcher on the team by any stretch. I just don’t think that 9th inning role is any more important or difficult than the other roles, as long as the closer has a basic level of competence (ie, not Sherrill).
One other consideration: racking up saves makes players more expensive. Sherrill is making almost $3MM this year in his first year of arbitration, and if he racks up another full season of saves, that could easily top $5MM next year. So the Orioles may be forced to cut a potentially useful player rather than pay the inflated salary he will earn because he’s being used incorrectly.
Let Baez rack up the saves, keep Johnson/Ray/Sherrill cheaper, and deploy your best pitchers in the toughest situations. Simple as that.
Situational closers
I know the idea has been discussed to death in other posts, but why do we feel the need to constantly designate a closer? If the 6,7,8 hitters are coming up in the bottom of 9 and 3,4,5 hitters are coming up in 8 why not send our best guy out there in the 8th instead of saving him for the 9th?
The whole closer mentality baffles me sometimes. I understand talking about the mental aspect of closing out games, but to designate a guy as a 9th inning specialist because he’s the “best” seems dumb because there is always the chance you don’t make it to him if the guy before him sucks.
I know I’m not saying anything new, but I still think it needed to be said.
+1
I agree 100%, but Andy and Dave are not going to go unorthodox.
in theory
i totally agree with you. and in the long term, “closer by committee” might be a really smart move. a couple teams have tried it and it blew up on them though and so everyone is afraid to do it.
i don’t believe in the mystique of the ninth inning, but i do believe in confidence and keeping a routine. if these guys need to have a defined role to perform well, i can’t really tell them they’re wrong. if sarfate BELIEVES the 9th inning is special and he isn’t confident in his ability to close, we’re not going to convince him that he’s wrong and he’s probably going to struggle there. it’s dumb, but what can you do?
I agree
They aren’t going to go unorthodox, but I can still hang on to my pipe dreams. =)
by Gorilla Bird on Apr 15, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I agree, you send your best guy in after the meat of the order.
If you have a legitimate closer in a legitimate closer situation (late and close), the standard rules apply. We don’t have that. We have a bunch of candidates for end-of-game pitching.
Saves are outdated.
AndHedges: soo... when do I get to throw a couple of pitches and complain about "tightness?"
by CoachOfEarl on Apr 15, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
tell K-Rod's agent
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
by Scott Christ on Apr 15, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Or, I could talk to this brick wall
It’s kind of like talking to an agent, but you get more words in.
AndHedges: soo... when do I get to throw a couple of pitches and complain about "tightness?"
by CoachOfEarl on Apr 15, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
K-Rod gets too much hype for the number of Saves he racks up; but at least he’s still a very good pitcher. Career ERA of 2.33, 11.7 K/9 ,.7 HR/9, and .577 OPS against
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Apr 15, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
That being sad
K-Rod made his living in Anaheim on the 3 run save.
Unfortunately
I don’t see us changing our closer until after George blows a couple saves, which is going to happen. Right now, I’d put Baez in the role, but he should just keep the role warm for Ray.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Apr 15, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions
Ray
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
Ray just needs some innings
he has smoke, a slider and splitter…needs innings and a little confidence…
But right now Ray, Johnson and George works…until it doesnt. Use Baez for situational need since he can probably go one to three innings. When a reliever goes more then two innings you almost have a start at that point. But this team is going to go through relievers in a hurry until at least two more starter positions get some innings…
And so far Sarfate has surprised the hell out of me…although his velocity appeared down his last appearance (89-90)?
But what he's throwing moves
and that’s more important.
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
But right now Ray, Johnson and George works…until it doesnt.
You mean like until Sherrill starts sucking?
"If they cut my bald head open, they will find one big boxing glove. That's all I am. I live it." -- Marvin Hagler
by Scott Christ on Apr 17, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I could see Baez and George until the trade deadline
Baez is paid $5.5 million this year so unloading him for anything would save a good chunk of change.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Apr 15, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions
If they could trade him, they would likely have to pick up a large portion of that $5.5M
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on Apr 15, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
True, but
That’s true, but the concept is called “buy a prospect”. If you have to eat the salary, you should get something good in return, assuming Baez is pitching well enough to be in demand.
At that point in the season, we’d be on the hook for about two million or so. That’s close to second round money. If a GM is not going to get back the equivalent of a second round pick, he’s not going to do it.
YOu think somebody is going to give up an actual prospect for fucking Baez???
I’ve got this bridge in brooklyn you might be interested in…
Again let me point out that I’m drunk!
I DEMAND
ZAUN be included on a poll today! So I’m writing him in for closer.
Always trust your cape. -Guy Clark
Protection
As has been mentioned, it’s pretty apparent that a big reason the less-talented Sherill is back there is to protect the psyches and arms of the recently injured talent (every other pitcher in the pen right?).
Which is fine right? Except what happens when the young starters come up and start seeing their games lost in the 9th with a bad closer? I think it’s been a slightly understated concern of MacPhail’s that he just doesn’t want to bring these guys up and have their confidence broken by too much losing. So who do you protect, the young pen guys or the young starters? Hopefully the Rays and JJs won’t need anymore protecting by the time the Bergesons and Arrietas come up.
Either way, In Andy We Trust.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
You can pick your friends and you can pick your nose, but you can't pick your team's closer's friend's nose. It's that simple.
I voted for Ray and was stunned to find myself in the majority. And to those who for some reason have been retro-lamenting Wouldn’t it have been great to trade Sherrill last year in the 2nd half, when he had some value?— I can only say, um, retro-lamenting is picking your team’s closer’s friend’s nose. Can’t do it.
I begged for that trade, and I wasn’t alone. GS had a great All Star game (which he should’ve won), and we should’ve moved him within weeks of it. We didn’t. No second guessing. Here we freakin’ are. He’s going to pitch, but Ray should probably close.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
Sherrill needs to be a LOOGY
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
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