Corey's Corner
by Corey Taft on May 16, 2009 11:05 PM EDT
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PrintI'm going to go out on a limb and say it. I like our bullpen. If Hill works out and Hendrickson stays in the bullpen. And with Walker, and Johnson, and Baez (pending they keep their ERAs down around 3 or lower)
And they we can't be hated for hoping that Ray comes around and earns his keep.
And I don't see why Sherrill coundn't get 30 saves this year.
That's not a bad bullpen.
And hell, if our rotation is although clearly not a dangerous threat if a few of them could pull it together, those who can't will be tossed aside more easily.
All I'm saying is that Adam Eaton should think about pulling it together. An over seven ERA is not acceptable in the major leagues. I hope he pulls it together, but he can't...he shouldn't be playing for the team. Let's find a pitcher who has a lower then seven ERA. Surely, that's possible. Bring back Cabrera, whatever. Let's have a goal of no pitchers with over seven ERAs by the end of May. Is that something we can do? I don't think that's too much to ask for.
Get well, Adam Jones. We look forward to your return.
Alright, Luke Scott...sigh...I'm sorry. We had to do it. You know Felix isn't going to last through waivers so we can't send him down. It's not fair to send Nolan down. He just got here. So maybe Lou instead? Well, you know, in less than two weeks you have a spot on the team. That can't be said for everybody else. Somebody is going somewhere. Let those three outfielders play for it.
It does suck. You just started hitting over .300. We miss you now. But we want to win later, too. And we want the best 25 players on the team. Let us have this competition. Three men for two spots. It sucks but it's a long season. Apprieciate this rest now because we want to go into September this year. We don't want to rest you, we just want to have 25 quality players. It's still spring. It's cool. You can still make the all star team. You're not being voted in so don't worry about that. Earn it the only way you can. Showing the Devil Rays cleans the cellar around here. They do! Stupid bottom dwellers get all high and mighty because they made it to the World Series out of nowhere and win the hearts of sports writers everywhere. Pitching, defense, low payroll, whatever,
Anywho, sorry, Luke. make your millions and take a break like a man.
So, here's an idea. Let's take three out of four here in Kaufman.
Hit em into the fountains for me.
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Welcome to the site
Just don’t let anyone know that you’re a Bengals fan. Oh, whoops, I kind of outed you… sorry! :)
Yeah, Welcome
But Orange was a pretty bad choice…
Anyway, I completely disagree with your outlook on the bullpen as Walker/Sherrill are lefty specialists at best, Johnson/Ray are yet to prove themselves, and Baez/Hendrickson/Sarfate/Albers/McCroy have histories of sucking big.
If absolutely everything turned out well then we’d have a solid ‘pen, but we know that they won’t.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Baltimore is not good a pitching
They’re last in the league in pitching for a reason. All of their starters are below average this year except for Uehara and even though some of their relievers look OK so far, historically they aren’t good at baseball either and their final stats are likely to reflect that.
Yeah
The optimism of younger Oriole fans who have never seen a winning O’s team is understandable, but the fact remains the Orioles have nothing near the talent necessary to compete in the AL East.
Sure, Brian Roberts is pretty good and Nick Markakis is pretty good and Adam Jones looks like he might be good, but the fact of the matter is they aren’t the kind of players to base a line-up around that consistently wins. They all roughly fill the role of Don Buford on the great Orioles team of 1969-1971. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be a Frank Robinson or Boog Powell around anywhere. The pitching is even worse. Jeremy Guthrie would at best be a back-of-the-rotation guy for Earl Weaver and the relievers would be guys Weaver wouldn’t think twice of getting rid of.
Teams don’t win by overestimating the talent they have and hoping for the best from players who give them no reason to do so. They win by developing or acquiring high-caliber talent that is superior to the competition’s. Sadly for all of us, the Orioles still don’t have that.
I agree with your entire assessment
minus this Nick Markakis only being “pretty good”. Name a better RF playing right now
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
by sickuvitall on May 17, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Nothing Against Markakis
My point is that although Markakis is fine player and the best hitter the Orioles have, that isn’t going to cut it in their division. They still need better hitters than him and more than one of them.
I agree with the statement as a whole
But the sentiment is all wrong.
Not implicate you, but the general feeling is that because Nick doesn’t jack 50 homers, he is a “nice” player, but merely complementary; I disagree entirely as Nick is more valuable than any other breed of player sans an Albert Pujols type who can work pitchers and keep a high BA/OBP while still having a crazy slugging percentage.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on May 17, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again Baltimo
provides quality insight. Nick is far more than just complementary. We are only really 2 or 3 good offensive players away from having a ridiculous offense.
And yeah, it would be nice to have that big HR guy, but with the steroid era hopefully winding down they will become much more difficult to come by. I will take Nick’s overall hitting ability vs someone like Adam Dunn who will give you 40 dingers but not much else.
Right about now is when I expect Sanders to chime in with the Adrian Gonzalez thing…which I would love to see happen, but would never expect it.
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
by sickuvitall on May 17, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We are only really 2 or 3 good offensive players away from having a ridiculous offense.
Wieters and one of Reimold/Rowell/Snyder should be able to provide that boost, the problem really is our pitching.
Granted a “true” slugger at the 4/5 spot would be preferable, but picking up another Aubrey Huff shouldn’t be astronomically difficult in 2-3 years. Even if we don’t find a home run hitter, Nick is evidence that you can have power without necessarily driving the ball out of the park.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
I must politely disagree
Once again, it’s nothing against Nick Markakis. He’s the kind of player I like and the kind of hitter I like, but he Orioles need guys who are better than him if they’re going to win it all. That’s just the truth. I don’t think this about you, but there are fans on this site you seem to think the mere mention that perhaps there are better baseball players than Nick Markakis is sacrilege. I’m goign to say that there are and the O’s need at least two of them to compete in the AL East. They need Markakis too, so it’s not like he’s going anywhere.
As for Mr. Dunn, he has value beyond those 40 home runs because he also walks 100 times a season. Also, 40 home runs is nothing to sneeze at. The home run is the single most valuable play in baseball and he does it almost twice as frequently on average than Markakis does. Check out his season so far down in DC. He’s hitting a hell of a lot better than Mark Texeira, that’s for sure and even better than Nick Markakis.
I think there are those who engage in a false dichotomy swhere a team either has to have a guy like Markakis or a guy like Dunn. The opposite it true. If a team is successful it has guys like Markakis and Dunn. I don’t have too much of a problem with Andy MacPhail, but his not pursuing Dunn was the biggest non-move mistake he’s made so far.
Guys like Adam Dunn are a dime a dozen
He’s a butcher in the field so he’s not nearly as valuable as his offensive numbers make him look.
.
There will be plenty of Adam Dunn’s available over the next few years – he’s not the kind of guy you rue the day you missed out.
Really?
I didn’t know that it was easy to find 100 walk-40 home run guys. Just so I can keep an eye out for them, name me a dozen guys as valuable and consistent as Dunn.
As bad as his defense is, his offense more than makes up for it. Defense just doesn’t that kind of difference and he wouldn’t be playing a position with the Orioles anyway.
Everyone here has it out for Dunn for some reason, I guess because he’s not from Severna Park or something, but he is not a dime a dozen player.
I don't care where Dunn was born
He’s just not as good as you think he is.
He’s not even as good as Luke Scott – he’s a slightly better hitter and a complete disaster in the field.
Sorry, but that's just not the case
Luke Scott seriously can’t sniff Dunn’s ass. I think you’re hung up on his low batting average and high strikeout rate. I’m not quite sure what you think is good about Scott.
Dunn’s win shares over the past five years are 32, 28, 20, 21, and 23 and he averages 102 runs created per season.
Scott’s win shares for the past four years are 0, 12, 12, and 12 and he averages 45 runs created per seaons, plus he’s a year older and took longer to get in the Majors.
In other words, Dunn is roughly twice as valuable as Luke Scott.
I will agree completely
that Dunn would be fucking awesome to have hitting in the 4 spot right now. However I ask you not to underestimate the abilities of one Nick Markakis…I think he will continue to impress and improve.
As far as the persuing of Dunn in concerned, I think the issue at hand is that he would not have made us contenders as the team is constructed. The money at the time was slightly excessive. but we could have swung it. A player like Dunn would be a perfect addition in 2 years when I firmly believe that we will be in a much better position to contend.
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
by sickuvitall on May 18, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I would like to seem them be a little more pro-active
I just don’t see the point is saying “well, we’ll need him for two years, so why bother?” Fuck that. If he’s a good player who can help and there isn’t a promising player he would be taking time at-bats away from and he’s available for less than he’s worth, sign him. It’s not my money, it’s the Orioles and they have plenty of it.
As for Markakis, I like him. If the Orioles had nine guys who hit like him, they’d be awesome. Still, I don’t think he’s going to be the star everyone here thinks he’s going to be. He’ll probably be something along the lines of what Rusty Greer was like in the seasons he was healthy, which was should’ve-been-an-All-Star-level talent. If he exceeds that, no one will be happier than I. However, no one who is outside of Birdland seems to think he will and some of them know a lot more about baseball than any of us do (Rob Neyer and this guy I know at the Elias Sports Bureau, for example). If I end up underestimating I will publicly apologize to him and the greater Baltimore area and do so with a smile on my face. However, Markakis doesn’t need to get any better to be an outstanding player. A guy who hits like he does right now will be valuable on any baseball team.
In re Dunn
Do you think we should have attempted to sign him to like a 2 year deal or something more long term? As I said before I would not be at all objected to having the guy, but I would prefer to see him around for when we are really seeing the fruits of our labor. Now he would be a great bonus, then he would be a more definitive difference maker.
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
I use WAR (Wins above replacement)
It’s a stat that takes each player’s offensive and defensive contribution and neutralizes it for park and league context. Read up on it
Win shares is a very old metric that I have serious issues with.
WAR:Winshares::Calculus:Arithmetic.
2006 1.8
2007 2.5
2008 2.3
Total: 6.6
Dunn:
2006 0.9
2007 3.0
2008 2.3
Total: 6.2
So Luke has been the more valuable player over the last three years, even though he only played 65 games in 2006 and 132 games in 2007.
I screwed up the link
Read up on it here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues
the only thing wrong with that
is Dunn’s defense surely brought him down, right? if he was with the O’s, i’m sure he’d be a DH. Personally, I think Dunn would be a much better DH then Scott, but I also think it doesn’t matter at this point since neither can pitch.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
I'm not sure if this is true
or if I imagined it, but I seem to remember Adam Dunn saying he didn’t want to DH. Luke didn’t want to either, but since Adam was a free agent he did have some say. Or maybe he didn’t since he ended up with the Nationals. I don’t know. I’d love to have Dunn on the team.
I’m smart, not a dummy. ~Adam Jones
I'd also love Dunn
is SH’ing for the O’s > doing anything for the Gnats? Dunno.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
Wait an minute
I have to call bullshit on this.
Scott’s advantage is basically the 2006 season, but he only played in half the games Dunn did. You’re telling me he was twice as valuable as guy who played twice as many games? I’m a bit skeptical of that.
But
Dunn:
2006: 683 PA; 114 OPS+ (his career worst)
2007: 632 PA; 136 OPS+
2008: 651 PA; 129 OPS+
Scott:
2006: 249 PA; 164 OPS+
2007: 425 PA; 119 OPS+
2008: 536 PA; 109 OPS+
So offensively at least, we’re including Dunn’s career worst year and Luke’s obviously flukey 2006; and as Luke gets more exposure his offensive numbers continue to decline. You can make an argument on defense, but Dunn is a superior offensive player by pretty wide margin.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on May 18, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions
Sure
Of course Dunn looks like a much better hitter if we dismiss his worst season and dismiss Luke’s best season.
But fine, let’s do that.
From 2007-2009
Luke 115 OPS+
Dunn 136 OPS+
Once you factor in the league difference (Luke did most of that in the AL East, and Dunn did most of that in the NL Central), that gap is bit smaller.
Park and league-adjusted Batting Runs above replacement per 650 Plate Appearances:
Scott
2006 71
2007 29
2008 30
Dunn
2006 28
2007 46
2008 41
I agree that Dunn is a better hitter than Scott – he’s been 10-15 runs better over the last two years and I’d project him to be 5-10 runs better going forward.
But put them both in LF, and the gap between their gloves is even bigger than that.
Defense
I have a friend who works at the Elias Sports Bureau. He told me that defense above the mean has literally no value and that below the mean has minimal value compared to hitting statistics. Thus Manny Ramirez and Derek Jeter contribute to their teams even though the have no business on the field when the other team is at bat.
Granted, I have no way of verifying this for myself, but he pays for his mortgage and puts his kids in school by figuring out stuff like this, so I’m prone to believe him.
I have a friend who works at the Elias Sports Bureau.
I’ve heard you say this before and I wouldn’t put much stock into what your friend says. Plenty of reputable of saber analysts wouldn’t strongly disagree with your friend, who to us, is a anonymous person on the Internet who may be the Dwight Schrute of Elias.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Well . . .
he’s been there awhile and at least to do the statistical workups on ESPN shows. His name is Rob Tracy and if some of you do whatifsports.com he has a lot of teams there and posts a on their forums. I’ve always said, I have no idea how to check if he’s right or wrong, just that he makes his living doing it and knows more than I do.
Anyway, I don’t quite get what you’re saying since you said plenty of reputable saber analyast wouldn’t strongly disagree with my friend.
Elias is known for stat gathering
Not for stat analysis.
Actually, they DO produce the rankings of all baseball players for the purposes of type A and type B compensation. In my opinion, those lists are the biggest joke in the world of baseball statistical analysis.
They do lots of different stuff
They have contracts with every Major League, NFL, NBA, and NHL team and do stat analysis for them all.
The story that I’ve bored countless people here a thousand times is how a bunch of teams interested in trading for Daniel Cabrera a few years ago had them do workups on his career in order to predict what kind of pitcher he would turn out to be.
If you would like, you can e-mail me and I’ll give you Rob’s contact info. If you know as much as you say do, maybe they’ll hire you. He makes a decent living doing it and enjoys his job.
There’s a huge difference between knowing statistics AND doing research. I’m sure the analysts at Elias are statistically competent but in terms of applying that knowledge in order to produce insightful research is another story. I’ve seen seen as Elias reports so I really can’t comment on their quality of work. Obviously their statistical gathering reputation is excellent.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
My point is this
Companies like Elias or Stats or whatever do lots of stuff beyond gathering statistics. They all do analysis for professional and college sports teams and do it well enough to keep them coming back for more.
The way I look at it, they do this stuff for a living and none of us do. If I know a guy who works for them, I’m going to give what he says a little more credence than anything anyone here posts, especially if those things don’t jibe. It’s no different than how I would consider the opinion of my neighbor who is a professional car mechanic has about my transmission more reliable than that some guy sitting at the end of the bar telling me that mechanics are a bunch of crooks and I fix it myself for $50 with something I can get at Salvo Auto Parts.
You don’t have to. You can think my friend is an idiot or doesn’t exist or whatever. I don’t care.
They all do analysis for professional and college sports teams and do it well enough to keep them coming back for more.
Sure, I messed up my earlier post (my bad although my keyboard is giving me problems today on top of my usual sloppiness), but I’ve never seen any of it so I can’t really comment on their research…. ifi is even research since all they might be doing is sophisticated data reporting.
The way I look at it, they do this stuff for a living and none of us do.
Well, I don’t do baseball research for a living but I do quantitative research for a living.
I’m going to give what he says a little more credence than anything anyone here posts,
Sure, I agree but I’m just saying that you have to be aware of where his expertise lies because there’s a difference between data gathering and analysis. When people like Dave Cameron or Bill James disagree with your friend, I’ll trust the former than an anonymous person at Elias. I’m not questioning his existence or whether he’s an idiot. I just don’t know where his expertise lies.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Fair Enough
The disagreements between guys like Bill James and him are fairly small anyway. Mostly on defense and park effects.
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