Ace No More
by BKsportstake on May 20, 2009 10:30 PM EDT
51 comments
Going into this season, O's fans knew that the pitching would be bad. But most came to the conclusion there was at least one legitimate starter on this team, Jeremy Guthrie. Those O's fans, including myself, were wrong.
After 9 starts, Guthrie is 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA. When Guthrie struggles, the long ball is primarily to blame. He has given up 14 HRs through the first month and a half this season. Last year, he gave up 24 over the course of the entire season.
In addition to the long ball, Guthrie struggles putting batters away. This can be attributed to the fact that he lacks an out pitch. The Orioles former ace, Erik Bedard lived and died on his nasty curveball. Guthrie has a decent array of quality pitches but he does not have that signature strikeout or out pitch that most major league aces weild.
Since injuring his shoulder last August, Jeremy has not been able to regain the consistency and reliability he showed during the bulk of 2007 and 2008. Guthrie does not maintain the ability to stop, or at the least, mend the bleeding by the Orioles pitching staff, the primary objective of the staff ace.
Jeremy Guthrie's work ethic and effort should work in his favor as the season continues. Whether you like it or not, Guthrie will remain the ace because he's the best we got. The only other candidate to fill Jeremy's role as the ace is Koji Uehara. The 34-year-old rookie is the most consistent and reliable starter on the team. However, he has not played in the majors long enough to earn such a prestigous role.
Regardless of what we call Guthrie, he is going to have to turn it around in order for this team to stay afloat before the prospect levees break and the bevvy of young pitching talent floods Camden Yards.
--BK
Visit my blog at http://www.oriolesravensterps.blogspot.com
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I want to believe that’s true, but what if it isn’t? What if too much is being asked out of pitcher who frankly has only been in a major league rotation for just a few years.
BK
by BKsportstake on May 20, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it is.
His delivery looks different this year. Awkward. Off. I don’t like it.
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
I hate to say this, but...
I remember people clamoring for a long-term deal for Guts after last season. I was opposed, because of his age, team control, and lack of track record. It is entirely possible that he might be Rodrigo Lopez 2.0, or something like that. Nothing would make me sadder, but it might be true. This is why you don’t sign guys like him long term.
Also, I’m still in favor of running him out there every 5 days pretty much no matter what, unless he’s hurt.
Couldn't agree more.
"In a couple of weeks or a month, I'll be excited about this team," Dawkins said. "I've got to get used to saying that -- I'm a Bronco." Then he paused. "I'll tell you one thing -- I'll always be an Eagle."
If he did sign an extension (let’s say the next three years are bought out), he would be about 8 percent into his new contract. It’s a bit early to say the new contract is a bust.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
like all of these type of deals
The only upside is saving $$.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
yes
Although I don’t agree that is obvious more risk than reward. He has two years of solid performance versus 6 weeks of sucking d-i-c-k. His up to date ZiPS performance still has him finishing out with a 4.76 ERA for the season. Not great, but that’s acelike on this staff.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
don't pay a man like an ace
just because you want an ace. That’s like a two-year deal for Omar Daal just because you want a lefty.
A 4.76 ERA gives you Paul Byrd. You don’t give Paul Byrd a multi-year deal.
Of course, you don’t pay him like a ace. First, arb salary suppose to be less than free agent dollars. Second, the player is suppose to sacrifice annual salary for long term security. And Jeremy Guthrie isn’t Paul Byrd. He’s been better than Paul Byrd the last two years and he’s quite a bit younger. Look, I’m not saying we should buy out his arb years. But if the O’s gave him 4 years, $15M before the season, I wouldn’t have thought it was crazy and I still wouldn’t think so now just because he’s had a bad month and half. Like I said before, under such a scenario, he would 8 percent into his new contract. I would rather wait things out.
And the 4.76 is just this year’s projection…
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Actually, 4 years, $15M before this season would have been too high. James Shields signed for 4 years, $11.25 after two years of service. If Guts would have signed for 4 years, $10M before this season, I would have been fine with that.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Shields' deal is very club-friendly
So yeah, I would’ve been OK with that. It’s not really that much money.
I guess what it comes down to is that given his age and track record I didn’t see too much reason to be overly-excited about Guthrie in the long-term, and still don’t.
Lots of other people have made this point, but...
Guthrie is not a true “ace” and nobody ever said (or at least should have said) that he was. He’s an ace by default on our team. When he was going good he was a number 2 at best and definitely a solid number 3. His performance so far this year has been shitty even for a number 3, but keep it in perspective that he’s not an ace.
by O'sFan21 on May 21, 2009 12:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'll add my voice to that chorus
Guts isn’t an ace. He isn’t. Not on a decent, let alone playoff, AL team. He’s a #3 at best. But because the collection of suck known as the Orioles pitching staff is what it is, he’s the among the best of a bad bunch, with Koji being probably the best we have right now.
After the first week, slots aside from #5 are meaningless. For my own sanity, I’m doing away with the notion that Guthrie is the “ace” of our staff. We don’t have one, not right now.
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
Hasn’t our rotation all year been something like 1,3,2,4,5. I don’t think that Koji has ever been the started after a Guthrie start.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on May 21, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
They try and get Koji extra rest when possible
so I could believe that quite easily
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
His performance this year has been shit, yes.
But I am not going to let 50 or so bad innings cloud out the nearly 400 good innings he pitched the past two years. And he was genuinely good, 125 ERA+ both those seasons. He might prove my faith entirely misplaced, but let’s not write the guy off just yet.
"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008
Adam Jones is the tits.
by KenDixonFanClub on May 21, 2009 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on May 21, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
it is beyond ignorant to throw guts under bus now
he is still a kid, really …. one of these years he’s going to take off and when he does i hope it’s with team because he’ll end up with some kind of gaudy 22-7 record.
That is true.
Guts was throwing smoke and pitched fabulous from innings 4-7. I hope those last 4 good innings can propel him into his next start, and he will start dealing right off the bat. (well, hopefully not right off a bat, if you know what I mean).
Guthrie
He really can’t do much worse, so by that rationale, I guess we should give him the benefit of the doubt. His pitches have been uncharacteristically up…and people just are not missing.
I also agree with the mechanics thing mentioned above. When his right hand comes out of the glove and begins going up, he is sort of short-arming his throws. I know his velocity is ok, but he isn’t staying “on top” of his pitches and keeping them down. C’mon Kranny, help the guy out a little!
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
Velocity
It’s been my understanding that his velocity isn’t just “OK” but that it in fact has been up a couple of mphs.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
I would rather he still
throw in the low 90’s and locate his pitches vs throwing in the mid 90’s and getting bomb shelled.
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
Flip Side
I thought about that when you mentioned mechanics. If perhaps he was sacrificing control for velocity. That may be the case. I agree with you in that I would rather have him missing more bats and throwing slower.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
If he's not
blowing it past many batters now, I’d much rather see him adjust and try and locate his pitches better….even if that means he is a couple of ticks lower on the radar gun. You need to be smart out there on the hill these days, especially going up against lineups in the AL East.
Further more, my hat goes off to Bergesen the night before for sticking to his game plan and preventing the Yanks lineup from opening up the floodgates early. Wish I could say the same about our bullpen, but that’s another story.
Hopefully Guthrie's last couple innings
against the Yerks will get him on the right track. It was like there was a totally different pitcher out there…the Guts of old (well, not that old really).
Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (
by sickuvitall on May 22, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Guts was never an ace to begin with
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
He should sacrifice velocity for control
While his velocity is up on his fastball a couple mphs, his control within the zone is poor. He’s giving so many homeruns because he’s leaving the ball up. What more appetizing to a power hitter than a 96 mph fastball up in the zone? I specifically remember his start against the Yanks a couple weeks ago. His delivery was off, he was over throwing (96-97 mph, which is too fast), and he gave up that 3 run homer to A-rod on a tailing fastball up in the zone. Sacrifice velocity for control Guthrie!
BK
There is something
fundamentally wrong with the phrase “(96-97 mph, which is too fast)”
While I agree that control is more important than 2 mph it just sounds wrong reading it that way.
Don't let the sunshine fool ya. - Townes Van Zandt
In looking at Gut's data
Gut’s stats don’t look good. His BABIP is about where it should be (.281). His K/9 are down while his BB/9 are up from previous years. And he’s more prone to the homer ball this year. In looking at his pitch F/X data, I noticed that there’s a huge jump in the number of “unknown” pitches (13.1% this year from 1.7% last year). Otherwise, he’s throwing his change up more while relying a little less on his FB. I would like to know more about this “unknown” pitch. Perhaps it should be called the “batting practice” pitch (or his “Adam Eaton” pitch) given his jump in homers.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
I guess what I’m saying is that there is nothng to suggest that he’s just suffering from bad luck. He’s sucked this year. More homers, less strikeouts, more walks, and he’s been using a “mystery” quite a bit more.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
"mystery" pitch that is.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
mystery pitch makes it sound interesting.... mystical even
BP pitch is more realistic
Adam Eaton Pitch is just funny
"We're so bad right now that for us back-to-back home runs means one today and another one tomorrow." ~ Earl Weaver
not that you needed fancy stats to tell you that guts has sucked this year.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
The Orioles Pitching
Guthrie would be a #4 or 5 starter on any other team, maybe even the long relief guy. It will take another year or two to get the Orioles pitching to okay value.
by JackofAllTrades on May 22, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions
I'm so sick of hearing this
look at Gut’s numbers the past two years. Then tell me he’d be the 4 or 5 guy on “any other team”. Thats rediculous. Yes, his numbers less than 2 months into the season arent amazing, but give the guy a break.
"I’m sure glad he didn’t try to bunt." - DD on Melmo's game winning double, 6/17
At his best
Guthrie would’ve been the #2 or #3 starter on the Oriole World Series teams and more likely #4 or #5 he probably wouldn’t have been ahead of a guy like McNally or Cuellar even if they had a worse particular year than Guthrie.
Guthrie seems to be a nice guy and a nice story, but he just isn’t the kind of player a successful team put out as their #1 starter.
Following Up
Guts proved me wrong a few days ago by going 7 strong innings allowing only 1 run. Perhaps he has returned to form but he has work to do before I view him as a clear cut ace…
BK
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