Jeremy Guthrie's slow start is cause for concern

by Scott Christ on May 21, 2009 4:23 PM EDT in Commentary & Analysis

We had the warning signs in the spring, when Jeremy Guthrie went to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and didn't look so hot.

The O's wanted him back before Team USA's run was even over, as Guthrie wasn't scheduled to pitch and something seemed amiss -- get him back in camp, with his coaches, and let's fix it for our season was the prevailing thought. And given that Guthrie has outperformed all projections for two years running, I don't think anyone was truly concerned.

It's time for concern.

Nine starts and just over 50 innings into the season, Jeremy Guthrie, ace of the Orioles, still hasn't come around. After yesterday's loss to the Yankees which included back-to-back-to-back homers off of the beleaguered righty, Guthrie's ERA now stands at 5.37. It's not too hard to see the changes in his numbers.

Year	Innings	ERA	WHIP	HR	BB/9	K/9	BAA
2007	175.1	3.70	1.21	23	2.42	6.32	.249
2008	190.2	3.63	1.23	24	2.74	5.68	.242
2009	53.2	5.37	1.43	11	3.21	5.24	.275

It's bad news across the board. The homers are up, the walks are up, the strikeouts are down again, and he's just plain getting hit a lot harder. Generally things like this don't resolve themselves through side sessions and pre-game work, though we're cycling closer to the point where Trembley and Kranitz regale us all with the tales of how great Jeremy Guthrie looked throwing in the bullpen, and that he "has it sorted out." We've heard this with any number of pitchers over the years, and so has every fan of every other team.

Something is wrong with him -- be it physical, mental, mechanical or just good ol' fashioned not being good enough right now.

Guthrie was good every month in 2008, one of the most consistent years you'll ever see (OK, his lone starts in March and September weren't so hot). His ERAs month-by-month went 3.66, 2.97, 3.23, 3.45 and 3.86. He was a rock. 2009 has not gone right at all, from spring training until now. There is legitimate cause for concern, because we're not talking about Roy Halladay or Johan Santana here, a guy with natural talent so great he can turn it on at any moment. The further into the hole Guthrie gets, the harder it might be to get him back out.

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Comments

I was yelled at last week

After I expressed my dislike for Guthrie. Well…

I think the long balls he has given up is the most alarming statistic.

by John Stephens on May 21, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t dislike him at all, but he’s really not pitching well.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

by Scott Christ on May 21, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he'll be okay

The WBC was a terrible idea for him… he looks a bit out of rhythm, as do many of the players who were on the USA Roster. His struggles started there as well… with the 14 H in 3 2/3 innings.
There hasn’t been one game where he’s been completely knocked around. The first time through the order, he looks great. Unfortunately, the next time through, he’s been tiring, losing his focus, and leaving the ball up. The “home runs against” statistic won’t be attainable and he’ll be back to his old self sooner or later…
Also, check out Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins… similar situation over there

by whereswieters on May 21, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions

Did you watch last night?

He was pretty knocked around. He gave up back-to-back-to-back HRs to the bottom of their order on the first go around.

However, on his behalf he did only give up 5 hits through 7.

by John Stephens on May 21, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I felt as if that was an anomaly… he looked alright until he got frustrated but that can happen with anyone. The run support has been pitiful lately- definitely a contributing factor.
In other news, what fool thought it would be a good idea to put Adam Eaton in the rotation?

by whereswieters on May 21, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Two of the three HR's were fly outs in OPACY, according to Joe A., and that's a hitters park too, as you know.

I have no reason to doubt Joe. Nor any to wonder at his “tip of the hat” to Guts for going 7, without a hit after the 3rd,and leaving his team in a position from which a tie or win was not a stretch. It was a solid, A-for-effort-with-F-results game, of which he’s pitched a lot in three years.

No, Guts hasn’t had a good start, especially when ‘07 and ’08 have naturally given everyone high expectations. But bad-mouthing him as though he weren’t trying hard enough or simply because you’ve never liked the guy makes people wonder what your point is…

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.

by Titov on May 22, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

The run support hasn’t been there for him. But you cannot expect to score more than 5 every time he pitches.

Its not much of an anomaly…all his numbers are down. Something must be wrong with him from last year.

by John Stephens on May 21, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

Just to throw it out there - only 1 of those 3 HRs was a non-Yankee stadium HR.

Swisher’s was a jam shot that doesn’t even hit the scoreboard at Camden. Cano’s was 2 rows deep in the wind tunnel. Melky got it pretty damn good.

That being said, Guts fucking sucks so far this year and needs to get it the FUCK together! (I figure duck will appreciate that)

by O'sFan21 on May 21, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

Why thank you...

Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.

by duck on May 22, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Im not worried

But he should figure out was is going wrong, he obviously didnt get in the early work he needed, so either he will somewhere along the line start “dominating” again or there are some seroious issues he needs to work out with rick kranitz, they should fell free to put him in the bullpen for a few games to work on mechanics or whatever. Making sure he has it together for the future is more important then this sucky year.

by WestcoastO'sFan on May 21, 2009 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

And put who exactly in the rotation to replace him?

Sorry but no thanks.

by O'sFan21 on May 22, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah

didnt really think that one through

by WestcoastO'sFan on May 22, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions

can't put him in the bullpen

the only guy who’s been a sure thing is koji (and eventually rich hill)… i would much rather have eaton out than one guy weve been able to trust the past couple of years

by whereswieters on May 22, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

The Orioles...

Kranitz and Trembly need to do a better job at pitching matchups, There is no reason why Bergeson should open a series on the road against Santana. This becomes even more important with Guthrie throwing beach balls. Get Koji some run support, get him out in the 6th and match him up against their best!

by Kevin W on May 22, 2009 1:21 AM EDT reply actions

That is great in theory

However with only so many off-days, it is very difficult to operate in that fashion. Every so often there will be a time where you can skip the fifth starter, but to actually be able to start who you want-when you want just isn’t realistic.

The starters need 4 days rest, and Koji seems better on 5 days rest. Great idea, but not applicable to an extent.

Mood about O's rotation: Depressed : (

by sickuvitall on May 22, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions