Rob Neyer on Pie
by birdman on May 4, 2009 6:42 PM EDT
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PrintNeyer posted his thoughts on Pie. I pretty much agree with his thoughts. Some choice quotes.
After 348 plate appearances, you want to see something from a guy who's been profiled as an every-day player and, just maybe, a future star.
Exactly, I'm not looking for a strong, or even average, performance now. But an OPS+ of 27 is embarrassing.
The "problem" is that Pie, in three Triple-A stints, posted a .300/.353/.478 line, and most of the time he was one of the younger players in the league. You can't give up on a guy like that. Not after 54 at-bats, nor after 348 plate appearances.
Exactly again. If you're going to give him a chance, then at least let him get the majority of starts for another month or two. That's probably not enough development time either but you can't let Reimold and Montanez tear up AAA w/o giving them a shot. I'm surprised Rob didn't mention this, but I asked him in one of his chats if he thought Pie's bat could play in LF and he said no but the O's aren't contenders so they might as well develop him a young player like Pie especially his defensive skills. Obviously Pie won't hit for an OPS+ of 27 for the rest of the season but he needs to start showing some sharp improvements fast.
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I like the second quote
But it’s not even like he’s had 348 solid ABs, they’ve been broken up over two season by pinch hits, defensive substitutions, pinch runs, and a starts every third day.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
My question has likely been discussed already
But, given the O’s expectations for this season in conjunction with the current pitching staff, why wouldn’t they continue to play Pie? They have more to lose (a player) by waiving the guy than they do by letting a couple of guys at his position toy in the minors.
Hell, I’m willing to be patient. Otherwise I’d no longer be an O’s fan. It’s obvious that this year is about lack of pitching, so I’m open to give Pie more run.
Those triple-A stats aren't bad
But they also aren’t great. And he put them up in the PCL, which is probably considered the most favorable hitters league. I don’t see a 830 OPS in the PCL as proof that this guy is going to eventually be a ML starting OF’er, especially if he’s not going to play CF.
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on May 5, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions
AAA Stats
I took a look at these, and I think you’re pretty much right: that line isn’t as impressive as it seems given the league context. And the career AAA line is inflated by a particularly hot half-season in 2007 (stats from Baseball Prospectus):
2006 AAA .283/.341/.451, 46 BB, 126 K in 623 PA
2007 AAA .362/.410/.562, 19 BB, 40 K in 250 PA
2008 AAA .287/.336/.466, 23 BB, 54 K in 368 PA
The walk rate is consistently low (6-7%), while the isolated power is consistently ok for a speedy guy (.168, .200, and .177, so even though he’s not a slugger he’s not just a slap hitter). The only major improvement I see over these years is better contact (going from 78% to 82% to 84%), but that’s not really reflected in any other results. 2007 looks like it’s driven by a fluky AVG, not really supported by any other underlying changes.
I haven’t hunted down more complicated stuff like BABIP or line drive %, so maybe there’s something there, but this is pretty unimpressive unless you put a lot of weight on the 2007 numbers, which I don’t think makes sense given the lack of supporting peripheral stats. Both 2006 and 2008 translate to .250ish/.300ish/.407ish, according to BP’s equivalencies.
To be fair, though, as Neyer and everybody else points out, he has been young for the level and he’s been jerked around between AAA and the majors for the last couple of years. The fact that he even kept his head above water at AAA in that situation suggests that there’s talent there. His youth might be the main reason why PECOTA is somewhat optimistic, predicting .274/.329/.425, which would be ok for an excellent defensive CF, but pretty bad for a middling defensive LF. And it’s obviously not a given that he’d actually reach even that prediction.
I’m not very optimistic. I don’t think he’s had a fair shot yet, but at the same time I think the odds of him putting it together aren’t very good either. I’m probably on the pro-Reimold side at this point, because I think that when he’s been healthy he’s been a very good hitter, but I’ll admit to not really knowing anything besides the stats — I don’t know if he’s got a hole in his swing or other flaws that will be exploited in the majors that don’t show up as much in the minors.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on May 5, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice post
Like I was saying in another thread, I don’t see why Pie’s minor league stats scream star. I see a potentially good player but nothing to ga ga about.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Pie's prospect resume
Some prospects build their reps by putting up ridiculous numbers in the minors. Others show very good tools and hold their own at higher levels at a very young age.
Pie falls into the second group – think Hanley Ramirez rather than Matt Wieters.
There’s no doubt he was very highly regarded as a prospect.
Baseball America top 100 rankings:
2003 #72
2004 #85
2005 #31
2006 #27
2007 #49
His prospect star has dimmed because he flatlined somewhat at AAA and hasn’t taken that next step, but he’s not that far removed from being one of the best prospects in the game.
Rankings of #27 or #31 don’t particularly scream “star” for me. That’s quite a number of players who ranked ahead of him (of course, that’s quite a number of players he ranks ahead if you consider every single player in the minors). John Sickels typically gve him a B or B+ in his prospect ratings. Given these pieces of information, he seems like a second quartile type of prospect among players who considered legit prospects.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Top 30 is pretty high praise
Although I would agree that being ranked there is no guarantee of stardom.
In the 20 year history of Baseball America top 100 lists, the Orioles have had just 4 position players rank in the top 30: Wieters (#1), Hammonds (#3), D McDonald (#21), and Markakis (#21).
This study has an interesting interesting numbers. For hitters ranked in the 25-50 range, one-third are busts, half become supplemental/role players, one-in-seven become everyday players, and a select few become stars.
Those odds don’t sound great, but that’s just the nature of prospects.
How many MBPs has Pie won this year?
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
I think I'm tied with him
"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle
by BirdFanInPhilly on May 5, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Those odds are about as good as you'd get with a free agent
"Honestly, I get tired driving 26 miles. I couldn’t imagine running it." -- Huffy
free agents are much more expensive though.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
Yes, but they're ready to underperform NOW
Instead of wasting years of development on them.
"Honestly, I get tired driving 26 miles. I couldn’t imagine running it." -- Huffy
Fangraphs has advanced stats for minor leagues now
http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx
And for Pie:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3751&position=OF
"Honestly, I get tired driving 26 miles. I couldn’t imagine running it." -- Huffy
Age in minor league stats
You forgot one last big thing to look at as far as minor league stats, and that is a players age relative to the rest of the league. His stats look a good bit better once you consider he was 21, 22, and 23 respectively. Meaning he is 24 now, but his time to prove himself is running out obviously.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on May 5, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
True
I sort of referred to it in a general way, but didn’t really go into it — certainly his young age at AAA and his ability to not suck there is the main thing that underlay his prospect status (combined with the tools), not the stats themselves. Certainly it’s age-relative-to-level that’s making prediction systems like PECOTA relatively optimistic about Pie.
But as you say, Pie’s lack of development over the last few years is making that argument harder to sustain.
Interstingly, the stats CoachOfEarl links to (thanks!) suggest that his current terrible performance is something of a fluke — he’s hitting a lot more balls in the air than he usually does and his BABIP is ridiculously low (it’s all over the place historically, so it’s hard to know what his normal level is, but I’m pretty confident that it’s not .211). So he’s obviously not this bad, and should get better. The question is whether that “better” will be enough to be a viable major league player (especially if he’s not a CF), and that’s what I remain pretty dubious about.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on May 5, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see Pie continue to work at ML level for the remainder of the year
Baring an outfield injury there is just not enough room for Montanez, Pie, and Reimold. Maybe a trade for young pitching could be in the works down the line. Reimold in my opinion is untouchable for now. If Pie comes around and lives up to the hype then what happens to Reimold. Both of them need to play and not sit. Montanez is the perfect 4th fielder because he can hit regardless of how many days he is on the bench. That is his role. I don’t see Wigginton on the roster next season. Nor do I see Ryan Freel. Thus we are stuck. Not sure why MacPhail pulled off the Pie trade when it completely muddied the outfield situation. Nor do I understand the Wigginton signing because it rendered Freel expendable and created a problem there.
"They are who we thought they were"-Dennis Green
Wiggy makes sense
he’s way better in expectation as a backup infielder/right handed specialist than Ryan Freel.
Freel was a necessary evil with the Ramon trade.
Pie did make the outfield situation a mess, but the idea is that we can net an above average player for nothing (Olson) if it works.
PCL *Pacific* is a hitter's paradise
PCL American is not. Playing for Iowa, you play a lot at OKC and New Orleans, which are pitchers parks, Iowa, Memphis, Nashville are neutral, and Albuquerque is a launching pad, so it’s pretty much a wash.
Inflated numbers come from playing in the Pacific division, places like Stockton, Fresno, Las Vegas, Salt Lake are all hitters parks.
"Honestly, I get tired driving 26 miles. I couldn’t imagine running it." -- Huffy
I've decided that then ext game I go to
I’m going to early, and hold a sign where Pie can see it. It will say “PIE WE (HEART) YOUR SOCKS”
Me and a female will be shouting at him with our sign. I think that he needs all of the encouragement he can get. No batting average, like one home run…. I think Pie would appreciate thinking that some people in Baltimore care about him and want him to succeed.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
THURSDAY, I have decided.
if Pie gets some hits, you guys know why.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on May 6, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Not to be rude.....
but I’m betting you’d get more of a response if you do it in Spanish, since he’s from the Dominican. Can anyone here give them th e Spanish translation of “Felix we love your socks”?
Matt Wieters took batting practice this morning. There were no survivors.
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