Not Worried About Roberts
Yesterday during the game thread I had a brief comment-versation about Brian Roberts' recent struggles at the plate. After watching his 0-14 series again the Blue Jays, it seemed pretty reasonable to get worried.
So this morning I decided to check on some of his stats, and honestly, it made me feel better. Going hitless in three games is never EVER going to go unnoticed for a guy like Roberts. But he's not playing like a completely different player.
This season Roberts has seen 125 first pitches. He has swung 26 times, and has three hits. It would be great to see him jump on first pitch fastballs, if that's what he's getting, but he is still taking the first pitch 79.2% of the time.
Plus, his Batting Average on Balls in Play is .330, around what we can usually expect from him. (Last season it was .341 and league average is usually right around .300)
Roberts' ground ball to fly ball ratio is 0.63. Last season it was 1.10.This isn't great, but a lot of it due to his infield fly ball percentage, which is at 15.2% right now. That's double what he will average in a season, so right now his fly ball ratio is inflated and his ground balls are down. This early in the season numbers are still swaying a lot based on just a handful of games, I don't think we're really seeing a major decline in his skills, he just had a rough time in Toronto.
Because he's not a power hitter, we might not think of Roberts as a fly ball guy. But he hits a lot of them. He also hits a lot of ground balls. He makes a lot of contact in general. In 2007, the year of the 50 stolen bases, Roberts percetages were: 19.5% line drives, 35.8% ground balls, and 44.6% fly balls. Then, in 2008, the year of the 51 doubles they were: 23.9% line drives, 40.3% fly balls and 35.8% ground balls. He's jumped back and forth a lot over his career, while still maintaining a high batting average and getting a lot of extra base hits.
Roberts is still getting on base (.384 OBP), is walking and striking out at pretty standard rates for him and already has eight doubles. Really, if anything is going to worry us as O's fans, it is Roberts on the base paths. His stolen bases (4) are down, and his times caught stealing are up (3 already compared to 10 in all of 2008). Last April he had 9 steals, and was caught twice and in 2007 he had 8 steals and was caught just once. Hopefully, like those infield flys, this is not a season-long issue.
I'm no stats expert, but I've got way more to worry about than Roberts. That series in Toronto is something I would love to forget, but I think B-Rob is going to be just fine.
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Good post
and I agree. His OBP looks fine. Everyone has a bad series now and then.
Except Pujols. He’s a machine.
no worries
Yeah he had a career worst slump, but its probably broken. The fact that his BA never dipped below .300 and his OBP stayed very good never caused my alarms to set off. As for SBs, again, I’m not too concerned. Though we can expect his efficiency to degrade with age, he wouldn’t run at such a poor percentage all season (he just had a bad series against the Yankees). One thing is for sure though, if Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continuing hitting well all season, there will be no need for Roberts to run like he usually does. A season of ~25-30 steals would not surprise me.
He's also really streaky with steals.
He’ll have 5-6 in a 2-3 game series and then none for two weeks.
Great post!
I’m glad my bitching inspired something useful… that was a really nice breakdown of his stats.

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