Billy, take some comfort from Brandon
At what point does a prospect start to truly qualify as a bust?
Most times, I'd guess, it's when the hyped prospect reaches the majors and never gets off the schneid, or just doesn't pan out against huge expectations.
Other times, though, it happens far sooner -- and the light of Major League day is never even seen. Right now, Frederick Keys outfielder Billy Rowell is on the verge of being labeled as a flop. I hate to rag on a kid who's probably heard plenty in his own mind, and is being hard enough on himself most likely, but we have to face facts: One of the position prospects with upside in our system is Billy Rowell, and that upside is about to vanish.
The young man doesn't turn 21 until September, so that's a point in his favor. Still, anyone drafted ninth overall (2006) with talk of his "tremendous raw power" is expected to have hit by now. He hasn't. The 6'5" Rowell played shortstop in high school, moved to third base in the pros, and has since switched to outfield. New positions haven't helped. Injuries have plagued him. And he just hasn't produced.
This season, Rowell is hitting an anemic .240/.296/.404 through 56 games, with seven homers, 24 RBIs and 55 strikeouts in 208 at-bats. It's his second go-'round at Frederick (High-A) after hitting .248/.315/.368 in 111 games last season. As an 18-year old in the Sally League in 2007, he hit .273/.335/.426, which was decent given his age, but right then should have told us we had no phenom on our hands, but a work in progress.
The work has stopped progressing. That's the troublesome aspect.
Then-VP Mike Flanagan said of Rowell just after the pick in 2006, "We think a projection of two or three years and he'll be ready." He's obviously not going to meet that, and now it seems like total insanity.
The silver lining is this: Rowell has so lost his standing as one of the organization's best prospects that if pressure has played a part in his slow pro start, he should really just forget about it. I don't think anyone's really thinking about him other than, "Has he started hitting yet?" He's clearly not a blue-chipper, but that doesn't mean he can't still be a good player. Again: He's really young still.
Look at Brandon Snyder, a CC favorite who looked for all the world like a guy that would stall out and probably not ever really make it. Snyder battled some injuries, settled in at first base, and for a first baseman, his .776 OPS (Delmarva, 2000) and .848 OPS (Frederick, 2008) marks weren't tremendously encouraging.
What's he doing this season with Double-A Bowie? He's knocking the crap out of the ball: Snyder is hitting .343/.411/.605 with 10 homers and 41 RBIs in 49 games for the Baysox. Now those? Those are first baseman numbers. Those are something to work with.
What I'm really saying is not that Billy Rowell is already a bust, or that he's doomed, or that it's time to flat-out forget him. What I'm saying is look at Snyder and hope that Rowell can find that groove. No matter how they turned out, everyone drafted in a spot like Rowell's had legitimate baseball talent -- all of them. There are lots of other factors that come into play, from injuries to ability to handle the pressure to just plain losing it sometimes.
Billy Rowell's got time to make this thing work. Maybe he never does. But it's not quittin' time just yet.
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Nice to see an article from you, SC
Anyway, Rowell is far from a bust at this point, but it’s just frustrating watching the guy fail to progress year after year.
It’s fascinating how fast he’s fallen off the radar, and how little people actually care about Billy with the entire FO philosophy supposedly altered and a plethora of vastly superior prospects having emerged.
Age is still on his side, I guess, but Snyder never lacked drive, passion or dedication, whereas Rowell has faced “character” issues since being drafted. As a stark contrast, MacPhail and co. are now highly critical of a kid’s make-up, as they were wowed by Hobgood’s “intangibles.”
Billy actually came out of the gates really well, but in the past month or so he has just utterly tanked. I believe his home run totals are significantly up, but the slugging percentage is still shockingly low.
Although he is still very young, there are just so damn many problems with Rowell that it would take an absolute miracle for this kid to pan out. I mean honestly, his bat has been a liability, he doesn’t display power on a consistent basis, he doesn’t reach base, his defense is lacking, and there are major character issues. What the hell is there to like?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jun 10, 2009 8:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Key-ripes, looka that pic! What does Billy want for his 15th birthday? A new bike?!?
Yikes, are people really talking about this kid’s career ending before he starts shaving?
Hang in there, Billy! Oh, and start with something really non-irritating: the Gillette Atra might be a good choice, and maybe Foamy.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
by Titov on Jun 10, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Uh-oh. I haven't shaved in so long...does Gillette even make the Atra any more? Is Foamy still on the market?
And that reminds me of a question from about two weeks ago: what’s the preferred brand for post-game interview-ending pies?
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
by Titov on Jun 10, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jun 10, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had a chance
to talk to a scout about Rowell, who said that he was, “a terrible ballplayer and a worse human being”. I think he was being somewhat tongue in cheek, but the consensus seems to be that this is someone who was given a huge amount of money at the age of 18 and basically decided never to try to get better.
by ItsBenFeldman on Jun 10, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope
that Ben is wrong about this one.
I got to see him in Hagerstown when he played for Delmarva, and he looked like a manchild next to the rest of the 18-23 year old kids. He truly is massive, and I knew at that time that he would outgrow a third basemen’s frame(with the Scott Rolen exception). He went 3 for 4 that night with, I believe, 5 RBI. I couldn’t have imagined him turning out to be a bust. I heard a marketing guy for the O’s say that Markakis is a complete jerk, so let’s hope that personality doesn’t have anything to do with work ethic and overall talent.
Any way, this is my first post ever on this board, and I am trying desperately to follow my O’s as much as I can from over here in Afghanistan. Their record is bunk, but…….Wieters and Reimold are up. Tillman and Arrieta are kicking ass, and Matusz isn’t far behind. Let’s go O’s. Thank you Andy!!!
by Afghanistan Steve on Jun 10, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome Steve
If you’re over there representin’ for USA, let me be the first to say THANKS.
It's 4 in the morning. Too much to drink. All the girls look hot. So, the Nationals are Jennifer Lopez to me. —Julian Tavarez
by zknower on Jun 10, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to Camden Chat!
I guess you don’t get to see too many games. We’ll try to keep you as informed as possible :)
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 10, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snyder is hitting .343/.411/.605 with 10 homers and 41 RBIs in 49 games for the Baysox. Now those? Those are first baseman numbers. Those are something to work with.
That isn’t just something to work with. That’s almost Wietersque!
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
by birdman on Jun 10, 2009 12:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There is to much money and time invested in
Rowell to give up on him. I would guess they need to sit the kid down and have a “come to Jesus” talk about his attitude and work ethic, have a roving instructor come down and spend a week working on his skills in the field and at the plate. Then run him out every day and let him play. The upside is to great to give up. If the O’s can bring over Asian pitchers and can afford translators then they can spend some time and effort helping Rowell. I hope he is in Bowie next season.
Brandon Snyder, 1B. Remember that name.
by Baysox39 on Jun 10, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Steve, Thanks
for defending all of us overseas. If I were the O’s GM, I would draft nothing but college players in the high rounds. Drafting high school players like Rowell is very risky. There are exceptions for kids who play in big time HS programs in Florida and California, but Rowell played for home high school in New Jersey. I hope not, but I agree that Rowell is toast.
by BaltoBen on Jun 10, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
McPhail was talking about the success rate of high school pitchers before the draft, i think to some extent the risk factor is overblown.
There are advantages to taking high school players, mainly you have more control over their development. For every Strasburg, who’s innings were managed very carefully by Tony Gwynn at SDSU, theres an Austin Wood throwing 12.1 innings in a game.
by kba26 on Jun 10, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What particularly hurts...
… is that the Giants drafted Tim Lincecum with the very next pick. One of the more puzzling things about the Orioles’ lost decade is how little they got from the draft even after all those losing seasons. Fortunately, things seem to be turning around in that department now.
by Bad Horse on Jun 10, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes, drafts work FOR this town...
Lawrence Phillips got picked by the Rams after the Ravens took Jonathan Ogden.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 10, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love that Weaver quote
and Ogden was a beast.
"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"
by NHZ on Jun 10, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the highlight of my high school football career...
was getting run over by jonathan ogden.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Jun 10, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flanny
Then-VP Mike Flanagan said of Rowell just after the pick in 2006, “We think a projection of two or three years and he’ll be ready.”
Vintage Mike Flanagan.
It is too early to give up on him, but it really sucks he has turned out so poorly. It’s made by worse by the dude picked right after him. If only that guy sucked too I wouldn’t feel as bad.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Jun 10, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
even...
scherzer or snider would be preferable.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Jun 10, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, drj
The O’s probably would have figured out a way to screw him up.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 10, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flanny: "You know, we really gotta do something about that delivery...."
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 10, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then-VP Mike Flanagan said of Rowell just after the pick in 2006, "We think a projection of two or three years and he’ll be ready."
2 or 3 years, are you kidding me? Only a very select few players are ready to play in the big leagues as a 19, 20 year old.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
by birdman on Jun 10, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What puzzles me
Here is what puzzles me about Flanny’s assessment of Rowell. I can understand the scouts being fooled about Rowell’s ability to hit professionally. Rowell ate up HS school pitching. He wouldn’t be the first prospect who simply could not make the adjustment to faster fastballs and tighter curves. But, I don’t understand how the scouts could believe that Rowell could handle big league defense in 2-3 years. Rowell’s glove in the minors has been terrible. Why couldn’t the scouts see that in HS?
Also, if you really want to depress yourself, take a look at the Orioles’ first round draft picks for the past 15 years. Despite having high draft picks, we got so little. Mostly sore armed pitchers and Larry Bigby.
by BaltoBen on Jun 10, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you forget..
Half those arms had tommy john surgery for being overpitched in the minors
by GeoffreyA on Jun 11, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rowell's an example
Of why I hate taking highschoolers. There’s always some guy that’s better than anybody else on a high school team but that doesn’t mean it’ll translate to the majors.Snyder’s at AA and of course he should be raking at that level.At this point Rowell should be a throw in on a trade to get a major chip.I’m keeping my fingers crossed on Snyder but I’ll be more convinced as he moves up and sees more breaking pitches.Although it’s stunning how consistent he’s been this year up until the back injury. Flanny’s entire body of work really wan’t all that bad on balance. The minor league recovery started under him.His drafts put more guys in the majors than anyone else going back many,many years.I hate wasting innings on Koji and Hill right now,we need to see what Berken and Hernandez can do. Hopefully they’ll release Hendrickson today instead of sending Hernandez down because I think it’s a matter of time before Hill pitches his way out of the rotation or Koji breaks down again.
by TheThumper on Jun 11, 2009 5:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Rowell is in his head
Frederick Keys games are one of my truly favorite outings. The stadium is simple yet extremely personable and player-accessible. This allows fans to meet-n-greet the players that we hope will make us good again. One of those people who I have gotten to know over the last two years there is Bill Rowell.
The boy is not ignorant to his downfall…he fully understands and acknowledges that his stock has plummeted. His problems are far from physical and mainly originate in his head. Bill can hit the ball as far and hard as anyone…in practice. When nobody is paying attention, he can do that Tom Emansky video shit where they throw the ball into a barrel from the warning track. The guy is physically gifted beyond all belief. Sure his swing is long and his coordination sometimes lets him down, but the tools really are there and he can use them at certain moments.
Then there is the mental side of baseball. The side that caused Steve Sax to suddenly not be able to throw from second to first. The side that caused Rick Ankiel to not be able to hit the broad side of a barn from the pitcher’s mound. The side that is causing Bill Rowell to flounder into oblivion in Advanced A ball.
Rowell has a fear of failure that is so strong that it is causing him to fail. I know that sounds like some cheesy Frasier quote, but I really think that it is true. When things come to you so easily at the high school level (as they did for Bill), it can be hard to accept that you may actually have to work for it now and that you’re not the best player out there.
Once he started making errors at third base, he made the physical adjustments but could never overcome the mentality that he was not going to field the ball cleanly. The same thing is happening at the plate. Aside from the beginning of this year when he supposedly showed up with a new attitude, Rowell has largely been convinced that he will not succeed. If he doesn’t fix himself mentally, then the rest is just a wash and Bill Rowell will never be the player that so many envisioned.
by sickuvitall on Jun 11, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a man crush on
Tim Lincecum. If I had a time machine, I wouldn’t use it to go back and play lottery numbers. I’d use it to impose a violent will on the Orioles organization, and make them take him in the draft.
by Afghanistan Steve on Jun 12, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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