Baserunning out of patience
It happened well after midnight last night, so you may not have seen it live. You probably won't see it at all if you casually scan the box score. But something frustrating and all-too-predictable happened in the 9th inning of last night's Orioles game.
Aubrey Huff led off the top of the 9th inning of tie game with a single. With Melvin Mora coming to the plate, there were a number of options available to the Orioles manager.
Small ball orthodoxy dictates that you replace the plodding Aubrey Huff with a pinch runner, and ask Mora to bunt him over to second. Sabermetricians often malign the sacrifice, but according to Michael Lichtman and Tom Tango, this may be the rare situation where a bunt is appropriate:
Late in a close game, in a low run-scoring environment, it is correct to often sacrifice bunt with a runner on first and no outs. In an average run-scoring environment, you should sometimes sacrifice to keep the defense honest.
Dave Trembley decided not to bunt and he also decided not to put Felix Pie out on the basepaths.
That's fine, because it's also defensible to give Melvin a pat on the back and tell him to be patient and look for a pitch he can drive. That's exactly what Dave appeared to be doing, as Melvin quickly worked the count to 3-1.
Then something strange happened - or at least, I imagine it would be strange to anyone who doesn't follow the Orioles closely.
Dave Trembley called for the hit-and-run. This wasn't the first time he called for the hit-and-run in this game, as Adam Jones narrowly avoided being doubled off on a line drive out just a few innings earlier. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen another major league manager call for the hit-and-run as reliably as Dave Trembley.
Dave Trembley hates the double play, which is understandable. Perhaps last night he was still reeling from Matt Wieters' inning-ending GIDP with the bases loaded earlier in the night. But I'm convinced that the hit-and-run causes as many double plays as it prevents, and it ALWAYS puts the hitter in a position where they must shorten their swing and sacrifice power in order to make contact.
The hit-and-run should be used sparingly, and it should absolutely never be used with a slow runner on first, a strikeout pitcher on the mound, and a below-average contact hitter at the plate.
Lets get the game recap over with. Melvin Mora fouls off the first pitch with Huff running. Dave calls for the hit-and-run again. Melvin Mora fouls off the next pitch. Dave calls for the hit-and-run again. Melvin Mora swings through the pitch for a strikeout and Huff is nailed by a mile a second base. Rally over.
That was the fifth time Aubrey Huff was caught "stealing" this year, and he has yet to successfully steal a base. The Orioles lead the American League in caught stealing, and they are near the bottom in stolen bases. Only Brian Roberts and Adam Jones have stolen more bases than they have been caught stealing.
There's more to the problem than the hit-and-run, though. Doesn't it seem like the Orioles are also getting picked off a lot, including two more pickoffs last night? Doesn't it also seem like they are getting doubled off on line drives or nailed at the plate or trying to stretch an extra base pretty much every day?
Thanks to Dan Fox's work at Baseball Prospectus, we have a pretty good way of quantifying all of this. Fox developed a series of stats to measure baserunning. The statistics are all expressed in run values above and below average. EqSBR measures the value of stolen bases versus caught stealing. EqHAR, EqGAR, EqAAR, and EqOAR measure how well a team advances bases on hits, groundouts, air outs, and wild pitches respectively.
Let's take a look at the 2009 leaderboard:
EqSBR: The Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams.
EqHAR: The Orioles rank 25th out of 30 teams.
EqGAR: The Orioles rank 29th out of 30 teams.
EqAAR: The Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams.
EqOAR: The Orioles rank 5th out of 30 teams, but this is by far the least important category.
Add it all up, and you get, EqBRR which measures the total runs above/below average for baserunning as a team. Not surprisingly, the Orioles rank dead last at -15 runs.
It's not fair to blame all of this on Trembley, but the stats are pretty revealing. The Orioles ranked 9th in EqBRR in 2006. In 2007, with a half year of Trembley, they fell to 19th. In 2008, with a full year of Trembley, the Orioles ranked dead last, and this year they rank dead last again and are on pace to be the worst baserunning team in recent history.
The numbers don't lie. Dave Trembley's strategy of aggressive baserunning has been a miserable failure and it is making a bad team even worse. Those 15 runs that the Orioles have squandered on the basepaths this year could easily be worth three wins given the high-leverage situations that the outs are occuring in. According to Fangraphs, the Orioles went from being 60% favorites to win the game to 40% underdogs because of the failed hit-and-run last night. Three more wins and three fewer losses make this Orioles team a .500 ballclub.
It's time for Dave Trembley to adopt a baserunning strategy that makes sense, or it's time for Andy MacPhail to find someone else who will.
Edit: I found one more opinion I trust on this, the Earl himself:
I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball. First, the runner is going to second base at half speed, looking to see if the hitter makes contact. If the hitter fails to connect, 90 percent of the time that runner is thrown out stealing second. Also, the hitter is at a disadvantage because he knows he has to swing at any pitch in order to protect the runner. Odds are that he'll be going after a pitch that isn't a particularly good one to hit. It puts everyone at a disadvantage and I don't think much of it.
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Comments
Excellent write up
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Michael Lichtman
He’s one of the authors of the book I mentioned in the post had this to say about last night’s game:
Trembley’s hit and run (bad) in the top of the 9th with Huff on first and the 3-1 count. Terrible play. You love the walk there and you force Mora to swing at a marginal or even a bad (if he does not know it is bad) pitch with a hit and run. As it was, he swing at ball 4 high and fouled it off. On top of that, one of the reasons for the hit and run, even though it is almost always a bad play, is to get some extra hits through the hole vacated by the SS or 2B.
The announcers had just remarked that there was already a gigantic hole on the second base side because the 2B was playing rally close to the 2B bag. Is Trembley blind? Could he not see that? The 2B was going to cover the bag on the hit and run and he was already only 5 or 10 feet away from the bag in the first place, so that advantage practically was non-existent. And, another reason for the hit and run is to advance the runner an extra base. With no outs and a tied game in the 9th advancing the extra base is not all that valuable (around 10% more I think).
Some managers are just obsessed with the hit and run or feel a need to "do something" in a tight game to show how "smart" they are. They usually end up doing something dumb. I don’t know much about Trembley, but that hit and run was a REALLY dumb play. And then of course there is no "excuse" for Mora to swing through a fastball right down the middle, especially when he knows the runner is going (you have to take a little off your swing to make sure you make contact) but there is nothing you can do about that. I don’t even like a slow runner going on a 3-2 count (less than 2 outs of course). It forces the batters to swing at more marginal pitches. Remember the question about the 3-2 count and 50-50 pitch? What if you knew that 70% of the time there would be 2 outs (runner gets thrown out) on a K?
by dkdc on Jun 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great
One of the things I was reading this morning said that the more things that managers actively do, the worse for the team. Managers think that to help get the win, doing something is better than doing nothing, but usually it’s not. I’ve been on the internet all day pretty much though so I can’t remember where I saw that.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was in moneyball, right?
Billy Beane liked Art Howe because he was willing to just sit there and do nothing. I think.
by pipkin on Jun 4, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the hardest things to overcome as a manger/coach
is the desire to overmanage. Sometimes, the best move is no move at all.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me....
most in-game moves a manager can make on offense (aside from personnel) require the team giving up an out (sac, bunt plays, hit and run) or increase the possibility of giving up an out (steals, delayed steals). I can see where not making a move might work more often than the average fan may think.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words
CitoBall!
You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.
by sluggo 2.0 on Jun 4, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO!!!!
Well, OK, there is something to be said for letting the other guy make mistakes….
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It helped a lot
when Olerud, Molitor & Robbie finished 1-2-3 in batting. Not a lot of moves that needed to be made then.
With talent that’s not so good? We’ll see.
You can't fix stupid. Stupid is forever.
by sluggo 2.0 on Jun 4, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have Cito than Jerry Manuel, for example
Though, then again, TLR is an overmanaging SOB and he’s done OK.
I think bullpen overmanagement can be effective. But with hitting, especially in the AL, best to put your best 9 guys out there in some kind of reasonable alignment and let them go.
by pipkin on Jun 5, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amen
Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Huff
Mora
Scott
Weiters
Reimold
Izturis
Dave just write that down every day and go sit on the bench. The starters will let you know when they need to be pulled.
by smith1468 on Jun 5, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mora has GOT to go lower
He’s killing us at 6
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has Dave been asked what the hell he was thinking?
I’ve been through a lot of the post-game reporting and I haven’t seen where anyone challenged him about what he thought hew was doing there or what he thought of the results. Did I miss something? I only saw a DT quote in the Sun:
“I did [try different things],” Trembley said. “We hit-and-run three different times, lined out to right, double-play ball back to the pitcher. Hit-and-run again and swung through it. That’s baseball. That’s the way it goes.”
by typozzz on Jun 4, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if anyone asked Dave about it
I asked Schmuck the same thing in a comment on his blog early this morning and my comment hasn’t been approved for posting yet. I’m not sure how long that takes; he’s written a couple blog entries since then.
It seems to me that the sports reporters around here rarely ask questions like that, though.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh it's there now
my comment, I mean. He didn’t respond.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thx much for this post. The rankings are particularly sobering.
Or they’ll drive you to drink.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
by Titov on Jun 4, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That hit and run stunt last night
could drive any Orioles fan to drink
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jun 4, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, nothing surprising here
But many thanks for putting it in quantitative terms. This is a pretty damning indictment. The early part of the rebuilding phase is over. Time for a manager who can manage to win, not just survive til next year.
by fishoutawata on Jun 4, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope this isn't dismissed as a "tough loss reactionary post"
Tough losses in particular bring out the armchair managers. The O’s base running blunders have been a constant source of griping, win or lose. At least this provides some quantification in an area we’ve felt was a problem.
Trembley’s talk of good ol’ fundamental baseball has bugged me for as long as he has uttered the phrase. I wonder if he considers this style of play as an important component of his brand of fundamental baseball. I suspect it is, and this post is a data point that indicates why it bugs the hell out of me.
by drj on Jun 4, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another general principle of the hit-and-run
Is that, if you’re gonna do it at all, you certainly don’t do it on 3-1. That’s the hitter’s best count, and you’re making him sacrifice a lot in order to protect the runner. You do it on 1-1 or 2-1 or first pitch, not when the hitter should be looking to drive the ball—or take the walk.
Very interesting (and cringe-inducing) baserunning stats here.
by U2boy417 on Jun 4, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so our hitters stop hitting for a couple days and blog'spher starts calling for trembleys head
yeahp. that’s about right.
by thewaywardO on Jun 4, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I am not calling for his head
I am just asking for him to stop doing stupid shit with our runners
"Take on Me" - a-ha
by exitfare on Jun 4, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, that's not correct
These problems have been festering since at least the beginning of last season. However, they have been masked by the team’s overwhelming suckitude that made boneheaded baserunning look like the least of its troubles. Now, the team is at the point where the pitching is coming around and the offense is pretty good, at least on paper. When the talent is there but the results aren’t, attention is rightly turned to the way the team is managed. Yesterday’s game was just useful because it highlighted these old issues so glaringly.
BTW, Dave’s response to the press of “It’s frustrating, but that’s baseball,” makes this a lot worse, because it means he doesn’t get it at all. And that means that it won’t get better as long as he’s in charge.
by fishoutawata on Jun 4, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you want to say he's a "pitcher's manager" maybe you can say that but trembo gets it, friend.
by thewaywardO on Jun 4, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you watch the game last night?
It was awful.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dkdc makes a great point
NOTHING about the entire sequence made sense. You have Aubrey reach first. Great. It’s the 9th. Game’s tied on the road. Seemingly the easiest time you will ever have to pinch run and use Felix Pie’s speed. He stays on the bench.
OK, Melvin Mora’s up. He’s in a slump, but the ONE thing Melvin can do, as he’s shown us time and time again, even when we didn’t want to know, is bunt. Melmo can bunt his ass off.
He’s told to work the count instead.
Great. He works the count to 3-1. So, even though DD didn’t lift Aubrey for Pie’s superior speed, even though he didn’t call upon Melmo to do the ONE THING he can do well, we’re golden. One pitch away from 2 men on and the team’s hottest hitter at the plate. Just have Melmo take a pitch and see what happens. If it’s a walk, great. If not, it’s 3-2, protect the plate and at least make a long out, Melmo, and the runner advances.
That’s when Dave orders the hit and run, with the slowest runner he has on the team as the lad runner. Foul ball after foul ball, Huff takes off. The element of surprise is gone, the hole produced by the hit and run is negligible, and Mora creates the perfect ending by swinging and missing, ensuring Huff will be thrown out.
Makes perfect sense, huh?
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my opinion
Trembley can’t construct a lineup, he completely mismanages every possible signal with runners on, and he trots out veterans night after night irrespective of the circumstances.
The only thing I can give Trembley credit for is his ability to command respect, but that’s arbitrary and an intangible.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jun 4, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know who commands respect?
John Gibbons. He demands it. He’ll fight you for it.
by pipkin on Jun 5, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah… I’d been moving in this direction for a while, and the whole “John Gibbons” situation brought me back towards Trembley a bit…. but at this point that game has solidified my opinion. Dave Trembley needs to go. Honestly, sooner beats later. Managers in baseball don’t have a lot to do. Basically, the stuff the manager is responsible for is
Baserunning
Pinch-hitting/Pinch-running
Pitching changes
Lineups
Of those, Baserunning and pitching changes are the most important by far. It’s hard to evaluate whether Trembley is good at managing a pitching staff… although my initial vote would be for no, and he could certainly do a much better job. However, the baserunning and small ball tendencies are just terrible
by math_geek on Jun 4, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
I have little if any beef with his use of pitchers. Until 2 weeks ago, it’s not like he had a lot to work with. And as the youngsters show they can throw strikes, he’s lettingthem throw 110 pitches. Nothing wrong with that.
But the baserunning and hit and run and just general nonsense on the basepaths is wearing thin. We’re -15 in runs due to baserunning. Think about that – we’ve given away 15 runs by doing stupid stuff on the basepaths. Good teams just don’t do that.
For someone who preaches accountability on all levels, and, I’m sure, lobbied for Eaton to be gone and Hendo moved to the ‘pen and seems OK with JW, B’s impending release, the subject of futility on the basepaths is suddenly verboten. THAT I do not like.
QUIT MAKING OUTS WITH OUR RUNNERS, DAVE.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m thinking more on the lines of why George Sherrill is our closer. We could solve the Jamie Walker problem right now by making JJ our closer and Sherrill our LHS and be a much better team for it.
by math_geek on Jun 4, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not unusual idiocy, though
That’s being beholden to baseball doctrine that you have ONE closer, and Dave prefers a guy who, for stretches, has shown he can do it. When you do what everyone else does, you don’t get blamed.
Taking Sherrill our of the closer role and inserting the untested Johnson opens him to criticism, in his mind. Never mind that the upside is so much greater than what we know have…
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well… sure, but that only goes to show that Trembley could stand to improve quite a bit at managing his pitchers.
by math_geek on Jun 4, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The call for trambley's head is (imo) excessive at this point
I’d say anyone who zeros in on that last line of the post is missing the point.
I’ve always given Trembley the benefit of the doubt since he’s never had the talent that “smarter” managers have. However, when we watch an O’s game, we expect or are completely unsurprised, by the team giving up outs (and runs) on the bases. This type of post provides data that our perceptions are correct. Trembley should reconsider this aspect of his managing instead of chalking it up to tough luck. If he refuses to do so, then MacPhail should consider it when contract negotiations renew.
by drj on Jun 4, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We can evaluate a lot of what a manager does regardless of how talented the team is. Do you really think if the team was better, Dave Trembley would stop calling hit and runs?
And I’ll have to agree to disagree that it’s not that important. It’s probably the biggest contribution the manager has to a team’s on-field performance
by math_geek on Jun 4, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said it was not important
The gist of this article is to point out that this team is at the bottom of MLB in some BP baserunning measures. If this warrants Trembley’s head at this point in time, imo, that’s excessive. At least right now, given that the overly aggressive base running has repeatedly burned the team, I’d expect Trembley to reconsider his philosophy. Let’s see if he responds and we see a change. The guy deserves a chance. What I expect is irrelevant as someone in the FO has to perceive it to be a problem. I hope they do.
by drj on Jun 4, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant not that important to warrant Trembley’s firing.
I like Trembley a lot at his press conferences and such… but the baserunning issues and small ball has to stop. I doubt MacPhail can or will really do much to stop Trembley from continuing along the beaten path
by math_geek on Jun 4, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His comments suggest
that he either doesn’t appreciate the problem, blames it on the players or chalks it up to tough luck. None of these responses give one much hope, although I suppose a little time to think it through is only right. Still, the guy has been in the game for a long time. If he hasn’t figured this stuff out yet… :(
by fishoutawata on Jun 4, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be surprised to see much change
I am inclined to believe that Trembley perceives this “aggressive play” as a component of the fundamental baseball he talks about. Pressure the pitcher into mistakes kind of stuff. What other explanation is there for Trembley’s insistence to do this? We’ve seen it since he’s been manager.
by drj on Jun 5, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow...
yesterday afternoon i had just been looking at team stats and noticed huff’s caught stealing numbers. this is really bad. the rest of the baserunning numbers are equally alarming if not more so.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Jun 4, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
pitching
at least our starting pitcher kept us in the game.
Best OF in baseball - Markakis, Jones, Reimold, and Scott
by Redskincow on Jun 4, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing about it is
I feel like Dave Trembley could be a really good manager. Once you have the talent on a team, the biggest thing to keep a team successful is managing the players. From all we’ve seen and heard, the players like and respect Trembley. He’s been manager for about 2 years now and there’s been no whisper of him losing the guys, nothing about a team revolt. He just gets in his own way too much. The reason Joe Torre is considered such a great manager due to his time with the Yankees is because he let the talent do their job. He handled the behind the scenes things so that they could go out there and win. Obviously the Orioles don’t have the talent that those Yankees teams did, but I believe it’s the same principle.
Most managers aren’t going to be statistical geniuses or great minds of our time. But they don’t have to be. Get the talent, manage the egos and the clubhouse, and get out of the way and let the boys play.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this
And to be clear, I don’t feel like my post was really calling for Trembley’s head.
I think the most important part of the manager’s job is managing up to his GM and down to his players and balancing all of the egos and personalities to get the most out of everyone. As far as I can tell, Dave is very good at that.
The in-game tactical stuff really isn’t that important because an orthodoxy has developed for most situations to the point where there’s very little difference from one manager to another.
However this aggressive baserunning stuff has gotten so out of hand that it’s actively hurting the team.
I think the best outcome would be for MacPhail to sit down with Trembley and explain to him that he’s doing a great job for the most part but that he absolutely needs to change his philosophy on the baserunning. It’s an uncomfortable conversation for both of them and it’s dangerous territory for a GM to tread in, but no one else has the authority to tell him to change his ways.
If that conversation happens (although we would never know if it did) and Trembley sticks to his guns, then I WILL be calling for his head.
Next year, these losses might actually matter.
by dkdc on Jun 4, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trembley's Head
I definitely didn’t get the impression from this post that you were calling for Trembley’s head. I don’t think he should be given a 10-year extension, but the players seem to respect him and he seems to be pretty up front with the media, something I really appreciate as an obsessive fan.
by brooklynlovesorioles on Jun 4, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't need him fired, absolutely not
but this IS an area that needs to be addressed. Period. If it takes Andy MacPhail calling him into The Warehouse and saying “QUIT WITH THE HIT AND RUN PLAY ALREADY!”, then so be it. I don’t need a public woodshed trip, but I’d like us to stop giving away outs on the basepaths.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Everyone (me, everyone in the game thread, the opposing team, Peter Schmuck) knew Dave was going to hit and run because that’s what he always does. And then when it failed the first time, he kept doing it!
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 4, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Einstein's definition of insanity is in play...out(s)
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a helluva post, post of the year even.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
by birdman on Jun 4, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Methinks that when the O's get to the Promised Land
David Tremblay will not be among their number.
This is not to be taken as a call for his head.
It’s just a pragmatic observation.
by Fred Sanford on Jun 4, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
couple things
“The early part of the rebuilding phase is over.”
“It’s time to find a manager who has the in-game skills to manage a winning team.”
“Now, the team is at the point where the pitching is coming around and the offense is pretty good, at least on paper.”
“Damn, this club should be almost .500 now. Two more months of starting pitching like this, and if we’re not, it’s ALL on Dave.”
— various
First I should say that I neither watched nor listened to the game last night, so I felt no particular anger that we gave it away, because I didn’t have to experience it while it was happening. Second I should say that I appreciate this post very much, as it does put in statistical terms a disturbing tendency Dave has to want to run despite the fact that we’re a terrible base-running team. But I have to say I’m not convinced of anything I quoted above. We just managed to win 7 of 8 and five in a row. We had a good week. And then we didn’t hit for the next week. We were fortunate to get a trip through the rotation that was full of quality starts. I don’t know what the next trip through the rotation will look like. But I’m really not ready to even imagine “two more months of starting pitching like this.” To paraphrase Casablanca, when we get two more months of starting pitching like this, ask me if I can imagine it. I don’t think “the early part of the rebuilding phase is over,” unless you mean the early-early part of grabbing a bunch of young guys from another team’s farm system. Whether those young guys will pan out is unclear, although Adam Jones certainly looks good. I just don’t see .500 until next year at the earliest, and more likely 2011.
I agree that Dave obviously affected this one (and probably a few others) to the detriment of everybody. And I’d like to see fewer hit-and-runs and it would be great if MacPhail would talk to him about it. But I just don’t think we should forget that Brian Roberts is 0 for his last 17, we went 2 for 17 as a team with RISP during the Seattle series, and we’ve put up seven runs in our past four games. And not-for-nothin’, but if Matt Wieters gets a hit with the bases loaded in the fourth, we’re not even talking about this today. When the players aren’t getting it done, stuff like this starts to loom very, very large.
"If you had Steve Trachsel's stuff, you wouldn't want to throw it either." -- Joe Angel
by Fear and Trembley on Jun 4, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
we would be talking about it and we do
The topic of bad baserunning comes up quite often in game threads win or lose. It’s a problem the O’s should fix. Two years running as the worst in baseball (assuming this year’s trend continues) is not something Dave Trembley and the O’s should ignore.
by drj on Jun 4, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And smart managers win despite hitting slumps like this by not giving away outs
Yes, Brian Roberts is in a slump. Yes, Nick Markakis is in a slump. Yes, Matt Wieters has yet to start hitting.
But that game COULD have been won last night, and the one area, the ONE area where I have serious beef with Dave Trembley, came back to bite them in the ass, again.
Dave Trembley is giving away outs we cannot afford to give away with bad base-running strategy.
I think the larger point is this – there is a serious, statiscally-proven weakness in Dave Trembley’s in-game management that has been identified and can be corrected. And there are a bunch of passionate Orioles fans on this blog who want that to happen, and we’re proving why we think it does need to be corrected.
And yeah, I kinda do think Bergesen, Hill and Berken can keep doing this to some degree. Hernandez, I’m not sold on, not yet.
But it was a rotation of Guts, Koji, Simon, Eaton and Hendrickson that dug most of this hole (the prime offenders being Eaton and Hendrickson), and I think a rotation of Guts, Koji, Hill, Berken and Bergesen can go a long way toward filling that hole in if the manager will stop giving away outs and runs on the basepaths.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 4, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great work, dkdc
It is actually disgusting to me that Aubrey damn Huff has been caught stolen five times. I mean really?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Jun 4, 2009 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
honestly though
Well it doesnt address the fact we had a bunch of Pie on our bench instead of Huufl, after last night I doubt Dave Tremebly will be quite so liberal with his hits and runs.
Guys are getting pied Dave Trembley can't explain it
by WestcoastO'sFan on Jun 4, 2009 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've said it before....
but Dave “Trembles” Trembley is not the man to lead this club into the future, especially with our young guns coming up, he will ruin them all with his stupid philosophy on the wonderful game!! I just think he is stubborn, and he thinks he is “Sparky Anderson” or something, he couldn.t even carry ol’ Sparky’s jock on a good day….. It is obvious I’m no Trembley fan, he is no better than Perlozzo was or the countless others before; only Davey Johnson was the one good one we’ve had in the past 20 years with the “Earl” being the best ever!!! Maybe if we end up in last place old Andy McPhail will wake up and smell the roses and understand that “Trembles” isn’t the man for the job… Now I don’t want anyone to misunderstand, I think Dave T. is a nice guy, but you ALL know where nice guys finish “Dead Last” especially in the A.L. East!!!
by F4PhantomPhreak on Jun 5, 2009 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I Agree
I have felt this way since he has done his lets rest everyone on Sunday and give the other team three outs stuff. I understand you have to use everyone on the team and keep them fresh, but do you have to do it all on one day? I also think that Dave is the best we can get as a manager right now. At the end of the year we will have called up and showcased enough young players that maybe some real MLB manager will want to come here. Until then its Trouble with Trembles.
by smith1468 on Jun 5, 2009 4:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno. Joe Torre and Terry Francona are pretty nice guys. Joe Maddon seems swell, really.
by SC on Jun 5, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And John Gibbons was a hardass and he was terrible
Jury’s still out on Girardi the hardass.
by pipkin on Jun 5, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MASN never posted the post game conference
At least I never saw it. I guess they don’t want to add more fuel.
by drj on Jun 5, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We never see actual post game press conferences for road games
They do that for home games, for away games Dave just talks to Gary and Buck after the game. Like they’re going to ask any tough questions. I can’t watch it at work so I have no idea what it says, but here is Dave Talking to Gary and Buck after the game: http://www.masnsports.com/ml/video.php?show_id=105245
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 5, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting a Grip
I know that game was bad, but I don’t really understand the people here are who ready to fire Trembley. It’s like we promote a few guys and all of a sudden everyone expects us to shoot to first place.
We are still a work in progress. Our bullpen needs major help, our starters are learning on the go, and we’re going to need answers at first and third pretty soon. I think this post was tremendous and I loved the title, but truly, we’re going to need a ton of patience. Their dangling the future in front of us right now and we’re taking the bait, expecting to be the comback story of the decade.
Managers have been handed young talented teams and have done far worst things than call a hit and run too often. Yes, it was annoying and I screamed at my TV too. But put this loss into the context of what has been, at least for me, a season with way more optimism than I expected.
I like how Trembley deals with our youngsters. I don’t mind that he takes out rookie pitchers early to ease them into the rotation. I like that he’s handed left field over to Reimold despite the lingering Pie issue. I like that first and second year players seem to find him approachable. I like how he handles the media. Every manager makes mistakes. But to look at this team and say its Trembley that’s keeping them from rising in the standings is ridiculous. And I’d take him 1,000 times over Perlozzo.
by brooklynlovesorioles on Jun 5, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Patience is understanding when a young team occasionally (maybe even frequently) fails. I have less patience for them not even being put in a position to succeed.
I had no problem with Trembley pulling pitchers, especially the young ones, from games early while they adjusted. It is about not putting them in situations where they were likely to struggle.
That is not the case with the hit and runs. Even if they weren’t bad calls early in the season, its something that is clearly not working now. Trembley should realize that the hit and runs (particularly with mora and huff, neither of whom is suited for the play) are only hurting the team and putting more pressure on everyone else to perform. Its that he doesn’t even seem to acknowledge it as problem that bothers me. I’m still a Trembley fan overall, but this has to stop.
by kba26 on Jun 5, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody is saying fire Trembley
What we are saying is, “Here’s a problem. Here’s proof of the problem. We really, really, really wish you’d fix it.”
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some people are saying fire Trembley
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 5, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, SOME people are saying fire Trembley.
SOME people still think the AL should get rid of the DH. I don’t listen to them, either.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying fire Trembley
but can somebody tell MASN nobody enjoys the ‘Wired Wednesday’ segments. Dave was just completely awkward on it the last time, and it was hard not to cringe.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
by jobe on Jun 5, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's the key...
it could be interesting and fun, but trembley CLEARLY does not enjoy doing it, so they should find another guineau pig.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Jun 5, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just saying
If those hit and runs work in that game, we have a post with 70 comments about how Trembley is a genius. There’s no guarantee that any of those runs come in either way. This isn’t like Perlozzo pulling Guts in the Mother’s Day Massacre. I just don’t think this is a huge deal.
by brooklynlovesorioles on Jun 5, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There wouldn’t be outrage, you’re right. But I certainly wouldn’t be calling him a genius for the simple fact that hits and runs are rarely a good idea.
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
by Stacey on Jun 5, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right. Not a genius.
If the team is really losing faith in Trembley, which we have absolutely no proof of, then of course it is time for a change. But considering the low expectations for this season and the important of having someone with a prove record with young players, I bet it could do a ton of harm to cut him loose.
He wouldn’t be a genius for calling a hit and run and having it work. And maybe in two or three years when this team is seriously a contender, it will be time for a different manager. But right now, if the team is still with him, I’d rather not shake everything up.
by brooklynlovesorioles on Jun 5, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only change I want
is for him to stop calling so many predictable hit-and-run plays.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AND
I think there is a general philosophy to “be aggressive and make them make a play”. Problem is these are big league fielders and they tend to make plays. The result has been a number of guys thrown out advancing or at the plate, as well as picked off because they are obviously leaning. Only a few guys should have a green light. I’m not buying the entire problem is H & R.
by drj on Jun 5, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That philosophy works in U12 Softball
MLB? Yeah, you’re right, not so much. They can actually field their positions in MLB and make really, really good throws when needed.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the difference is that it keeps happening over and over again.
There’s a difference between second guessing one decision and noticing a pattern of unsuccessful decisions with no sign of an adjustment being contemplated.
two players screw up a hit and run? hopefully they do better next time.
Huff and Mora screw up 5 consectutive hit and runs without ever getting it right? STOP CALLING IT.
by kba26 on Jun 5, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, we bitch about it when it works, too.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops
that was supposed to go to Stacey for having my back.
by brooklynlovesorioles on Jun 5, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's even worse...
These obvious mistakes from the skip may cause the players to think he’s costing us games. Which could lead to an uncomfortable and confrontational clubhouse. Not good.
by glasgow on Jun 5, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Added to MASN's link page
What They’re Saying About The O’s
I knew that e-mail would work…
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 5, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
caught stealing
I believe that Izturis has not been caught stealing yet this year, isn’t he 9 for 9? I’m not sure but I believe an announcer said that. Regardless, he definitely has stolen more than has been caught to go along with Roberts and Jones.
by orioles52 on Jun 5, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
though...
roberts has been caught a lot.
"If they pitch to you, make them pay."
--Diamond Dave to the Phenom
by j.q. higgins on Jun 5, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree
I am sick of the mistakes made on the basepaths. This has gone on for at least two years.
"For a few dollars, fans can sit in the best seats in the house instead of the nosebleed sections; watch players with dreams, not egos; and feel like a part of baseball, not just spectators at a baseball game"- Brett H. Mandel from his book Minor Players, Major Dreams
by Baysox39 on Jun 6, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
seems like the best move for dave to make is to put luke in the 3 hole and markakis in the 6, based off how they’re playing right now, and gotta say markakis is a little overrated
by risingsunhigh on Jun 6, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No, Markakis isn't overrated
1). He historically sucks in May. Look it up. It’s just that it’s spilled over into June this year. Courtesy of B-R.com
May: .252 BA / OBP .313 / SLG.444 / OPS .757
May is BY FAR his worst month. His BA is at least 40 points higher every month in the season. It happens every year. You just happened to notice this year. Doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened before.
2). Here’s his 162 game average, again courtesy of B-R.com:
.298 BA / .372 OBP / .476 SLG / .848 / OPS 120 OPS+
3). Aside from his current slump, show ANY statistical evidence to support the statement Nick Markakis is overrated. If anything, his defense and arm are under appreciated.
"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver
by duck on Jun 6, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, nicky's a damn fine ballplayer
I dunno if you could really call any current Oriole overrated. Nobody’s paying enough attention to overrate them.
by pipkin on Jun 6, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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