Checking in on Jake Arrieta

by Stacey on Jun 8, 2009 2:11 PM EDT in Minors & Draft

Yesterday Jake Arrieta made his 11th start of the year for the Bowie Baysox and pitched a 7 inning complete game, allowing 0 runs on 3 hits. He struck out 5 and walked 0. Oh, and he did it all on 77 pitches. Arrieta's ERA is down to 2.59 and he picked up his 6th win on the year.

If that wasn't enough, he was also named the Eastern League's pitcher of the week for the second time this year, the first Bowie pitcher to win it twice in one year since 2001.

Here are the numbers for each of Arrieta's starts so far:

Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K
9 April	4.0	1	0	2	8
15 April	5.0	7	1	3	4
21 April	3.0	3	3	1	4
26 April	6.0	2	0	2	6
6 May	3.1	7	5	3	4
11 May	5.0	4	1	2	6
16 May	7.0	1	0	3	10
22 May	6.0	6	3	1	9
28 May	6.0	6	2	3	5
2 June	6.2	5	2	3	9
7 June	7.0	3	0	0	5
Totals:	59	45	17	23	70

Jake's K/9 is 10.7 on the year, which is 2nd among starters in the Eastern League to only George Kontos of the Trenton Thunder, who's K/9 is 10.8. Kontos has only made four starts in AA, however, so we'll see where he stands after 11. After 4 starts this year Arrieta's K/9 was 11.

At 3.5 BB/9, Jake's walk rate is nothing to rave about, but I don't think anything to worry about either. That's pretty much right in the middle of pack in the Eastern League. Of the 65 pitchers to have at least 5 starts in the Eastern League this season, 37 of them (56%) have a BB/9 lower than Arrieta's. Of course, none of those pitchers have the strikeouts that Jake has, so his K/BB of 3.05 is good for 11th in the league despite his middling walk rate.

What I think is the best news of all, however, is that despite moving up a level, Jake's numbers are getting better. Check out the comparative stats:

	G	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
2008 (A+)	20	113	2.87	6.4	0.6	4.1	9.6	2.35
2009 (AA)	11	59	2.59	6.9	0.6	3.5	10.7	3.04

His innings pitched per outing is actually a little bit less this year, but if you look at his individual game logs he definitely progressing this year (he's averaging almost 6.1 innings in his past 6 compared to about 4.1 in his first five). I can't find game logs of past minor league seasons to compare, unfortunately. If anyone knows where they exist, please let me know.

I think that after the minor league all star games we'll see a number of promotions. Arrieta and his teammate Troy Patton should be moved up to AAA (although I could make a case for Patton going straight to the MLB), and Brian Matusz should get a promotion to AA.

All stats are from Baseball Reference and MiLB.com. Arrieta's comparisons to other Eastern League pitchers are only to pitchers with at least 5 starts this year, unless otherwise noted.

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Comments

I was at that game.

He looked good. Really good. I know it was only AA, but none of the batters seemed comfortable against him. There were a lot of tentative and really off balance swings. I don’t know too much about minor league baseball – it was my first Baysox game, but he really seemed to be head and shoulders above his competition.

The Washington Wizards: providing career scoring nights for unknown opposing bench players since 2004.

by mamemimo on Jun 8, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

The Baysox only win in Trenton last week was Jake's start

The locals appreciated Jake’s effort with a nice round of applause. It is without saying that the O’s have some top notch prospects on the bump. Arrieta and Tillman may be the best of the bunch for now. What I hope is O’s management will not be pursuaded to trade any of our arms at this point.

"For a few dollars, fans can sit in the best seats in the house instead of the nosebleed sections; watch players with dreams, not egos; and feel like a part of baseball, not just spectators at a baseball game"- Brett H. Mandel from his book Minor Players, Major Dreams

by Baysox39 on Jun 8, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

As bad as the Orioles have been playing of late,

it’s still nice to have that “all hope is not lost – oh wait till the big three come up” feeling in the back of your mind. I know we have to be patient, but I really like what I’ve heard and seen from Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta all season. Really, the’ve been everything we’ve hoped for this season. There’s been no setbacks. Come tomorrow, we might be talking about another one – I hope it’s Crow but I heard he’s top 3.

Tillman is up this season.

Matusz for sure by early next year if all goes well, he gets promoted to AA after the break and eats up AAA next season.

When does Arrieta come into the picture?

by Kooz on Jun 8, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions

Arrieta

If all goes according to plan, he gets a July promotion to AAA and is in the rotation mix next spring.

All three could be in the big league rotation by this time next year.

by dkdc on Jun 8, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

And don't forget about Troy Patton...

"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver

by duck on Jun 8, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Hope is not lost?

If a two-hitter won’t win, then Arrieta can be the Second Coming of Bob Feller, and it won’t matter. Hope is lost: this O’s team proves that talent is not all—when it comes to losing, where there is a will, there is a way.

by fishoutawata on Jun 8, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s hoping the O’s can get a couple more guys like Arrieta below where they should be picked in the draft this week.

by ryanplat on Jun 8, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

Since we're willing to spend teh $$$ on arms

I’d bet we’re more likely than most teams to pull an Arrieta again.

"I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball." - Earl Weaver

by duck on Jun 8, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

We went over slot a few times last year as well

With Oliver Drake and Bobby Bundy. Drake has started off well, but is not at the same level as Arrieta (but he was also not given as great a bonus), and Bundy is struggling in extended spring traning(he tore his ACL after his junior year and only pitched a little bit his senior year.

AM knows you can get good return from the draft.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jun 8, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Look for Gibson possibly

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Jun 8, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Kyle Gibson that is

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Jun 8, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

If he falls to the second round

He would be a great pick. I dont know if that will happen, I could see the yanks or sox signing him in the late first round. However if he falls to the sandwich round then he just may make it to the second round (because you dont get compensatory picks for failing to sign a player in that round.)

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jun 8, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd stay far away from Gibson....

….a stress fracture in the forearm or elbow is often a forerunner to Tommy John surgery, and multiple reports have stated that they believe Gibson’s injury is worse than he is letting on.

I’d love to see the Orioles go overslot for Slade Heathcott if he’s available at 2:5, but I think he’ll be a better prospect in the outfield than on the mound.

by James F on Jun 9, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Roch says they were losing interest in Gibson before the injury news anyhow

"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson

by Brotz13 on Jun 9, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I hate to jump on him after that bad start

But Rich Hill doesn’t seem like he is really going to get much done in the American League. Unless he can get himself under control, he probably shouldn’t be in the starting rotation. The O’s should call up Patton and see what he can do.

Guys are getting pied Dave Trembley can't explain it

by WestcoastO'sFan on Jun 8, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions

Rich Hill’s upside is still worth some painful outings to see what he’s really got considering this is a last-place team built to finish last.

Bad Left Hook
Camden Chat

by Scott Christ on Jun 10, 2009 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Quality analysis

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Jun 8, 2009 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

Arrieta is doing very well

My issues with him:

— 59 IP / 11 GS = 5.3 IP/GS. Needs to be higher. Not sure if he’s spending all of his pitches trying to get strikeouts, but he could be more efficient. Although looking at the timeline, his last 5 starts were all >= 6IP, so actually, he’s getting better.

— He’s not in Norfolk, but I think that’ll change shortly. Not his fault.

— He didn’t pitch at the game I went to in Bowie while I was up for a conference last month. Not his fault.

Matt Wieters broke a bat last night. Nobody knows what happened to the ball.

by CoachOfEarl on Jun 8, 2009 6:21 PM EDT reply actions

I agree on the IP if that's all you look at

But check out his game log. He’s going deeper into games almost every time. He had some short outings in the beginning of the year that skew the numbers. As long as he can stay at 6 or 7 innings he’ll be fine.

I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry

by Stacey on Jun 8, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

To your first point

All of the Orioles minor league pitchers were on a strict pitch count in their first couple starts to build up to ~100 pitches. Also, Arrieta’s third start was suspended after three innings because of rain (and completed the next day).

If you leave out those first three starts, Arrieta is averaging just under 6 innings a game, and he’s gone 6 or more innings in 6 of those 8 starts.

by dkdc on Jun 8, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

I didn’t take rain into account. The first 3 starts I expect an innings buildup.

And those two 3ish IP games it looks like he may have gotten knocked out of, which happens. I would be concerned if he was too dominant, thereby not preparing him for adversity, which there will be plenty of when he starts pitching to big boys.

Matt Wieters broke a bat last night. Nobody knows what happened to the ball.

by CoachOfEarl on Jun 9, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I would suspect he also has an innings cap for the year.

Theres been stats that pitchers who increase their workload by more than 30 innings over the previous year are a serious risk for injury or significant regression the following season. After Arrieta only pitched 113 last year at Frederick, i would suspect they wouldnt want to push him much past 145 IP this season. Another similar increase would put him at 180 IP for his first full year in the majors, which would be fine with me.

by kba26 on Jun 8, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

He also pitched in the Olympics

which adds to his total workload for the year.

Matt Wieters broke a bat last night. Nobody knows what happened to the ball.

by CoachOfEarl on Jun 9, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

It just seems to good to be true that all of the Big 3, plus any combo of Bergesen, Hernandez, Patton, Erbe, Britton, Zagone, Drake, etc all pan out. Hopefully I am wrong though…

by sickuvitall on Jun 9, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions