Tillman promoted by August?

by kba26 on Jul 10, 2009 1:17 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

From the Sun:

O's prospect Tillman turning heads in minors

"He's really excelled to this point at any level," said Orioles' vice president Andy MacPhail. "I would imagine that if he stays healthy, he'll get his chance at this level."

Considered the Orioles' top pitching prospect and one of the best in all of the minors, Tillman is expected to pitch Sunday in Major League Baseball's prestigious Futures Game in St. Louis. He also was named to the Triple-A All-Star team, but the Orioles declined the invitation, not wanting to overexpose their prized 21-year-old.

That will come soon enough: Tillman is next in line for the big-league rotation and he could be promoted within a month.

"He's really excelled to this point at any level," said Orioles' vice president Andy MacPhail. "I would imagine that if he stays healthy, he'll get his chance at this level."

MacPhail is admittedly conservative with his prospects, and Tillman was supposed to spend most, if not all, of the season at Triple-A Norfolk after excelling at Double-A Bowie in 2008. But his performance with the Tides has altered the timetable.

Discussion of a September call-up might be moot pretty soon. The move seems unnecessary to me, I'm not even sure a couple appearances after rosters expand is a good idea.

More from Yahoo Sports: O's prospect Chris Tillman will 'get his chance,' soon

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If he's ready, you got to bring him up

I don’t think you’re doing a service to anyone by leaving him down there much longer. To gain another year of club control, you’d have to wait until towards the end of next April (and then he’ll likely be a Super-2 anyway).

In addition, you bring him up this year and you get a better idea of what you have and what you need to do in the offseason.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jul 10, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm mostly concerned that the call-up has a lot to do with the way Berken and Hill are currently pitching.

If everyone is convinced he absolutely is ready, fine. But I dont want to sacrifice long term potential to maybe eke out a couple extra wins this year.

by kba26 on Jul 10, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's ready

As Baseball America said in their weekly hot sheet today (Tillman ranked #3, Matusz #1):

Anything else you would like Tillman to do? The 6-foot-5 righthander didn’t allow a run in his last two starts and has made strides in polishing his control this season. After walking three batters in four innings in his first two starts, he’s walked three batters in only one of his last 14 starts, averaging just 2.3 walks per nine innings. His Triple-A numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as Braves righthander Tommy Hanson’s were this season, but a 2.45 ERA in 86 1/3 innings with 88 punchouts and 22 walks is pretty sharp for a 21-year-old.

They also had this to say on Matusz:

Who are Jonel Pacheco and Kevin Mahar? They’re the only two players who have scored against Matusz in his four Double-A starts. In fact, they’re the only two players who have scored against Matusz in nearly two months, as Matusz tossed 20 shutout innings in his last three starts for high Class A Frederick prior to his promotion. The quibbles with his game right now are relatively minor.

“He doesn’t pitch off the fastball enough, and that’s about the only thing you can say negatively right now,” said one scout. “He will because it’s good enough, but he will have to pitch off it more in the majors. His fastball has a little late life, and it’s solid-average, but that just make it his third- or fourth-best pitch.”

So the question becomes, who would you take: Matusz or Tillman? Though Matusz is No. 1 on the Hot Sheet, we chose to give Tillman the slightest of edges right now. Luckily for the Orioles, they don’t have to choose.

by dkdc on Jul 10, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that's what this move is about

If he’s not ready, them leave him down there.

I think there is as much of a danger of leaving a prospect down too long than bringing him up to early. Players have to be challenged to improve.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jul 10, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point....

Tillman’s forcing the promotion. Which is exactly what you want to see.

"We're not the other teams' farm system." - Andy MacPhail

by duck on Jul 10, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is.

It’s coincidence that Berken/Hill are struggling, with Tillman’s numbers it’s not as if he’s got much to work on at AAA. The case could be made even if our rotation was performing well.

From the Land of Pleasant Living...

by OEutaw on Jul 10, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was going to force someone out very soon

Hill and Berken are just making the decision easier.

"We're not the other teams' farm system." - Andy MacPhail

by duck on Jul 10, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Berken's last start WAS pretty good.

Just saying.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 11, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's young

and I think patience should prevail — I don’t want him to overdo it, get hurt, or even ruin his confidence by an early call-up.

"Take on Me" - a-ha

by exitfare on Jul 10, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

see cabrera, daniel and liz, radhames

perfect examples of what happens when prospects with good stuff are rushed to the majors for a few pointless wins.

by twistedlogic on Jul 10, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neither were really top level prospects

I don’t think it’s very likely that a few additional years of fermenting would have made them any better pitchers. And I’m not sure either was really rushed either, at least age wise. They are just two guys who aren’t very good ML pitchers.

If you are ready to pitch in the majors, than you are ready to pitch.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jul 10, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you could argue...

that cabrera, penn and ponson were rushed, but, yeah, none of them ever performed like tillman, matusz or arrieta.

liz pitched decently, but even had a relatively high walk rate at bowie and was by no means too young when first called up.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Jul 10, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neither of those guys pitched at AAA before they were called up

Cabrera made just 5 starts at AA when he was called up, and Liz was called up after a full season (25 starts) at AA.

Tillman has made 28 starts at AA and 16 starts at AAA, and he dominated those levels far more than Liz or Cabrera ever did. Plus, he has much better command.

There’s no comparison.

by dkdc on Jul 10, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All good points

Not to mention the general idea that Cabrera and Liz were nowhere near the same league as TIllman is in.

by U2boy417 on Jul 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cabrera isnt in any league now :-)

by twistedlogic on Jul 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mercifully

by U2boy417 on Jul 10, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two more general thoughts

Tillman is going to come up soon. It’s a done deal. This is the 5th or 6th article I’ve seen in the last week that quotes MacPhail or a front office source hinting at a callup soon, and MacPhail isn’t normally chatty about those sorts of things.

I don’t think you should worry about service time with pitchers the way you do with hitters. Most pitcher’s arms are ticking time-bombs that only have a certain number of pitches in them before they blow up. Six years is a long time from now, and I’m not sure it makes sense to waste some of those pitches in the minor leagues to try to squeak out another year of club control.

by dkdc on Jul 10, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly right

Hitters and pitchers are entirely different. Hitting is more of a learned skill than pitching, so that, combined with the fact that swinging a bat doesn’t run the risk of destroying someone’s arm, is a reason to be more cautious with hitters.

But if pitchers prove that they’re ready, as Tillman obviously has, then don’t waste those innings in the minors.

And aside from the fact that you can’t predict if a pitcher will be healthy in 6-7 years, you don’t know how good they’ll be. Pitchers are inconsistent (largely because of the inevitable injuries.)

When you have a position player like Wieters—repped by Scott Boras—then you can play the service time game. But not with pitchers.

by U2boy417 on Jul 10, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At this point, it would be 6 years from NEXT year

So, his service clock would start with 2010, and he’s ours through the 2015 season. My 12 year old daughter will graduate high school that season. That’s how far away we are.

"We're not the other teams' farm system." - Andy MacPhail

by duck on Jul 10, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I expect Tillman in August

We’ll see what kind of trades are made by the July deadline, and then MacPhail will react.

MacPhail has always talked about wanting to end the season on an up note, instead of the usual fall swoon. Guys like Tillman will be a part of that. It will be interesting to see how much they play the service time game.

by drj on Jul 10, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we'll see him by late July

Berken, if he doesn’t pitch well tonight, will be replaced by Hernandez after the ASG. Hill will get limited, if any, opportunities to redeem himself in the bullpen, and may be released before he even gets that chance. Tillman will be here by July 31, I think.

"We're not the other teams' farm system." - Andy MacPhail

by duck on Jul 10, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Late July wouldn't surprise me

The fact that the Orioles declined his All Star game invitation would make me think he may not be far off.

"Hey Yankees... you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straight up your ass!" --Tanner Boyle

by BirdFanInPhilly on Jul 10, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want him to stay down until next year

Because the one extra year of team control and he will be assured of not being over-exposed. He is 21 and i would like to see him shut down around his 30th start.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 10, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I want you to take your foot off the break Grandma

by b_duardo on Jul 12, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

two thoughts

1) playing the service clock game with a stud catcher or shortstop makes sense. playing it with a 21 year old pitcher who has kicked the crap out of minor league hitting for the last year and a half and may have two TJ surgeries under his belt by the time he’s 28, regardless of who he pitches for, does not make sense. bring him up now. in fact, as inspired by the earl weaver article, bring him up and stick him in long relief for july and august and then give him 3 september starts if he’s doing well. then shut him down for the year.

2) does anyone wonder about his ceiling being higher than everyone says? seems like from the beginning he was a number 3 starter. then scouts and writers were saying number 2 starter material. he sure looks like a number 1 to me. maybe not a pedro in his prime number one, but if this kid is mowing down the minors as one of the younger players at his level, doesn’t he project as a true front line starter?
2)

by joet on Jul 10, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think...

i recall bp saying that he had #1 potential but was most likely an excellent 3 or a solid 2.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Jul 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most of what I've read lately has him as true TOR potential

Baseball America, in their midseason prospect rankings, has a grand total of 1 pitcher ahead of him. (He’s one slot above Matusz)

by U2boy417 on Jul 11, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tillman

I’ve seen Tillman pitch a few times and to be frank don’t expect him to be a savior or an ace for that matter. He really only has two pitches a fastball and curve w/ a developing changeup, and in the majors two putches isn’t gonna cut it. He surprisingly only maxes his fastball out at 92-93 and he has command issues. Granted he’s only 21 and has time to develop, nevertheless I can only see him being a number two starter at best.

by No More Steroids Please on Jul 13, 2009 5:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

after watching him in the futures game

i’m now sure of myself. tillman is not majors-ready. i worry about his command and his limited arsenal (changeup on the way but it isn’t that great as of now)

by twistedlogic on Jul 13, 2009 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs