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Where we've been and where are we going? Jeremy Guthrie

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Jeremy Guthrie - Our opening day starter, he was the only starter we had who had had major league success. On Opening Day, he gave us an alright taste of what was to come: a six-inning, three-run quality start. As Oriole fans, we appreciate quality starts more than most, but sometimes you want to expect more from certain guys. And there lies the heart of the Guthrie "issue" - he is not gonna be a number one pitcher. The popular line was "he's not an ace. He's OUR ace." Anyway, Opening Day told us to be happy with a quality start. We were way too quick in demanding that 7th or 8th inning.

Halfway through the year, Guthrie is not our best pitcher. And that is a good thing. Because Guts has only been serviceable so far. He struggled in June, with an ERA of 5.76 for the month, He has allowed 20 homeruns, where most of his problems lie. When he allows baserunners, they get to trot in. When he doesn't, the home runs are generally solo shots. What I find troubling is that Guthrie has only managed 9 quality starts through 18 attempts this year. He can do better. Last year he was 19 for 30.

So what to make of it? And which Guthrie do we see in the second half? This will probably be one of the more compelling situations to watch. Let's just keep in mind that it is a BAD thing if a number three guy is your best pitcher and a GOOD thing when Guthrie takes his rightful place in the rotation (because that means that better pitchers are taking up the spots ahead of him). I think he's going to work it out and finish with an ERA in the low 4s. I just wish some people were not so harsh on him. I think he's pretty awesome, and has a place on this team for the next five years.

For 18 games, all started, he has gone 6-8 with a 5.35 ERA. He has a 1.82 K/BB rate, which is a tad down from the 2.03 he has averaged over the past six years.

Guthrie on BR

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I'm just starting to think

That he would be very good trade bait if the right team came along. That is, any team that thinks he’s “the Orioles best pitcher” and worth such.

The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST

by the fix is in on Jul 13, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think his value

will fetch something that is worth trading, which unfortunately is the problem with basically all of our trade chips. None of our trade-worthy players seem to have quite enough attraction to get what we would need in return.

Based on that, I think Guthrie stays in B-more where he can possibly fit in nicely as a back-end guy in the next few years.

by sickuvitall on Jul 13, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guthrie

Guthrie needs to leave, there’s no way he’ll be trade bait btw.

by No More Steroids Please on Jul 14, 2009 4:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Needs to leave?

I’m not sure what you’re suggesting here.

by Dr Orpheus on Jul 14, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No need to trade him

As much as I’ve never really been a fan of Guts, he still has a place in the rotation in years to come. Maybe as the 4 or 5 depending on if Bergy keeps it up and our young arms pan out.

by Johnny_S on Jul 14, 2009 9:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think a second half with an ERA in the low 4s is possible

For him to end the season with ERA in the low 4s, he’d have to pitch somewhere in the low 3s which would put him in the top 10 in the AL. That seems highly unlikely, but I’m not sure which you meant.

by kba26 on Jul 14, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's just a guy

Keep him, trade him, it doesn’t really matter.

He might be a back part of the rotation guy, but if the O’s could get anything for him or for just about any other veteran pitcher on their staff they would be nuts to pass it up.

by yurizanow on Jul 14, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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