David Hernandez's performance today and 3E's quality season to date had me thinking about the future of our rotation.  To start the year I didn't think that either of those two guys would have success starting in the major leagues and I was obviously wrong so far.  However, that wont stop me from speculating about how our young pitchers will perform in the future.  So I am going to run through my thoughts on the usual suspects and then see how you all feel.

He has been more than dependable for the O's so far.  His ERA+ of 128 has him in contention for the AL ROY.  He works fast and gets tons of groundballs and lets his defense do the work for him.  His K rate isn't great by any means but an out is an out no matter how you get it.  If he can be Mark Buehrle lite that will be a great player to have on the roster, anything better is gravy in my opinion.  So I am still skeptical about 3E, but he has proved me wrong this far so why stop now?  Although he probably needs a good defense to be successful.

David Hernandez:

A former 16th round selection who received 5th round money.  Has really good stuff, as evidenced by his 10.4 K/9 in the minor leagues, but sometimes has control issues as evidenced by his 3.8 BB/9 in the minors.  If he can improve his control a bit he could realize his upside as a potential TOR (top of rotation) starter.  If he can not improve his control he may end up in the bullpen.  Either way DH looks to have a bright future after his 7 promising starts in the major leagues so far.

Chris Tillman:

Tillman was acquired in the Bedard trade after the 2007 season.  Everyone knows Adam Jones was the centerpiece of that deal, but I read that some scouts thought that Tillman would be the player that the Mariners are going to really regret trading.  This was not a knock on AJ, but recognition of Tillman's ability.  While his 5.26 ERA at A+ ball in 2007 didn't look promising, he was the youngest player on his team and the Mariners A+ affiliate is in High Desert.  His team's ERA that year was 6.44, so stats are all relative and the O's really did a good job in getting him in this deal.  Since then he dominated AA in 2008 and AAA this year and supposedly we will see him in action wednesday.  Baseball America ranked him as the 2nd best pitching prospect at the all star break behind only Madison Bumgarner.  Some people say he may not be a true ace, but Dan Haren wasn't thought of as an ace and actually was never in Baseball America's top 100.  I just do not know how the #2 pitching prospect does not project as an ace anyways.  His BB/9 has improved this year from 4.3 to 2.4 from the year before and boy am I excited for wednesday.

Brian Matusz:

The #4 pick in the 2008 draft and it was him or Justin Smoak.  Both looking great so far.  He was and still is considered very polished for his age.  An analyst at BA said that neither him or Tillman "will blow you away with their stuff", but they know how to pitch and good things like that.  Polish and control can be underrated and blow you away stuff can be overrated in my opinion.  If he has four Major league level pitches and two of them are "plus" pitches, his stuff will be fine at the next level.  You combine that with control and polish like it sounds like he could have, then he is a future ace.  At this point he has dominated A+ and AA ball this year.  He is my vote as the pitcher that will be the best.  His 9.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are very promising to say the least.

Jake Arrieta:

That same BA analyst that said Tillman and Matusz don't have "blow you away stuff" said that Arrieta has the best stuff of the three.  He was an over-slot pick in the same draft where the Pirates gave us Wieters.  He was considered a 1st round talent going into his junior year of college and then he fell to the 5th round because of bonus demands and his poor performance in his Junior year.  He handled A+ and AA ball well but his transition to AAA has been a little rough.  He has been dominating (9.7 K/9 in the minors) but control (3.8 BB/9) may be an issue.  BA had him as a top 50 prospect at the mid-season and he is considered a step below Matusz and Arrieta.  I think he has the biggest flame-out potential of the big 3 for sure, and i'm not sold on him.  I think he will be good but wont ever realize his TOR potential. 

A few other guys worth mentioning are Zach Britton, Matt Hobgood, Jesse Beal and Bobby Bundy.  Britton is making a case for it being the big 4 and not the big 3 with his 2.66 ERA at A+ at age 21.  Hobgood was our first round pick this year but he is too far away to project at this point, but I like his character a lot.  Character is something I think is underrated in prospects because if you are projecting a guy four and five years down the road you better make sure that he is dedicated to improvement and baseball.  So I think we could see good things from this guy even though his first few appearances he appeared to have some jitters.  Jesse Beal and Bobby Bundy are both over-slot picks from last year's draft.  Bundy is still recovering from the torn ACL that dropped him from first round status but Beal is doing well at Bluefield (3.7 ERA and 0.7 BB/9 in 41.1 IP). 

Ryan Berry could be this year's Jake Arrieta from the draft if we sign him, but he isn't signed so I dont feel like talking about him and this post is way longer than I intended. 

To wrap this up I should mention that if Bubba Gump's mother liked baseball she would probably describe pitching prospects as a box of chocolates because you never know what you are going to get(ok it's getting late and this analogy will probably not amuse me in the morning but oh well).  However, there is safety in numbers with pitching prospects and the Orioles have numbers.  Injuries are always a worry with pitchers and there is only so much you can do about it (limit pitches).  Feel free to correct me or add anything juicy and exciting.

Stats from www.baseballreference.com or www.thebaseballcube.com