The Jeremy Guthrie Situation
What do we do with this guy?
Nothing. I really just think he's having a bad (or "down") year. Most pitchers do. Let him walk out there every 5th day and throw between 5-7 innings and figure out what he has to do on his own. He's not the first solid pitcher to have to cross this bridge, and there will be better, more talented Oriole pitchers that will inevitably have to do the same. He stuck it out through getting shafted out of run support every start last season, so let's just get the guys back and remember that he really does belong at Camden Yards. He has yet to throw a season of 200+ innings. So if he gets over that hump this year, and stays healthy throughout August and September, lets call it what it is and chalk up his healthy, full season to progress in terms of increased stamina or whatever.
Mussina, 1996 - 4.80 era, by no means a good year for him. Gave up 31 home runs but still managed 19 wins because the O's were doing well. Prime example of a guy having a random down year
Jamie fucking Moyer, im not gonna pick a year or any specific example because I hate him. But how many bad years has this guy had? Shit the first 10 years of his career were probably "down" years.
Andy Pettite had an off year in 1999 (4.70 era, 1.59 whip - certainly no gem)
Beckett certainly didn't enjoy his first year in Boston, although many will reply to me that he was "adjusting" (well, maybe Guthrie is "adjusting" to added responsibility of a young rotation or the disaster that is the Bud Selig World Baseball Classic)
And the list goes on and on. Point is, let's take this for what it is at the moment, a bad year, if next year is just as awful, we can start calling for heads. There's plenty of baseball left in '09 and I'd say that Guthrie will probably get his ERA @ 4.70 and throw 200+ innings in his "bad" year. That's all it is.
Alright minions, now rip my opinions apart lol!
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25 comments
Comments
I guess...
I think the guys that you pulled out for comparison had all done much better than “guts” before their down years.
But I agree that they shouldn’t release him or anything. He should keep pitching every 5th day and hopefully he’ll stop annoying me so much.
by O'sFan21 on Jul 3, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know everyone hates the stat
But Guts has 8 out of 17 starts as quality starts. It’s obviously the long ball that’s killing him, there’s no reason that he can’t cut down HR’s if he puts in some work considering he has good stuff. I would argue that he might even be better than Hernandez, Berken and Hill (did Hill move to the BP?). His WHIP is a serviceable 1.4. Also the MASN commercial about Guerrero was correct; Guts held him to 0/4 with 1 K.
by wishEYEhadCRABS on Jul 3, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He has been....
Predictable this seaon. Seems every start he has goes pretty much the same way, I get annoyed myself O’s other fan21.
I want to move to 2110 Eutaw st.....
"I'll never play for New York"-The dumb one... Johnny Damon
by O's21girl on Jul 3, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All of this pulling of hair and rending of clothes is based on Guthrie failing to be an "ace."
Well, time to get over it. He had a couple of Cinderella seasons, now he’s back to his real potential, which is as a pretty good #3 or 4 starter—nothing to sneeze at, given the crap we’ve been through. Once the other pieces fall into place (i.e. pieces named Tillman and Arrieta, and maybe one top-flight FA starter), no one will mind that Guthrie is living up to his true potential.
by fishoutawata on Jul 3, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This
He’s a good pitcher. He’s not great, nor is he DCabs. I’ll take it.
"When is the last time Jeremy Guthrie hit somebody? Think about it." -- Jim Palmer 7/2/09
by CoachOfEarl on Jul 3, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care if he's an "ace" or not. I never expected him to be one.
But I expected him not to have a 5 ERA and be leading the league in HRs allowed.
by O'sFan21 on Jul 4, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
give our prospects some time
once we fell they are ready then maybe we should consider trades for him because contending teams will want a solid starter.
by Terpsfan2189 on Jul 3, 2009 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prospects
To be honest Chris Tillman doesn’t need anymore time he should step in to take Guthrie or Hill’s spot in the rotation. There is no need to be conservative with him, give him major league experience so he could be ready for next year.
by PhilTheseNuts on Jul 3, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If the called him up
He would probably work in the bullpen this year. He threw 130 innings last year, and there is no reason to jump that up too drastically because he is 21 and this team is going nowhere this year.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 3, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many innings is he averaging in AAA?
by SidewinderX on Jul 3, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
72.2 in 14 starts
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 4, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so far this year
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 4, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers stats are fickle
Because they are so dependent on luck and defense and all that stuff. That being said, the panic here is more because his peripherals were not that great in his “good” years. He will probably continue being a good pitcher, but not great.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 3, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Since you mentioned stats
All pretty much in line for Guts. He’s very consistent, and HR weight heavily in pitching independent stats, so you’d expect this.
"When is the last time Jeremy Guthrie hit somebody? Think about it." -- Jim Palmer 7/2/09
by CoachOfEarl on Jul 3, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats interesting
If you look at his tRA in past years it was pretty much in line with this years, not very encouraging.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Jul 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure what you mean be "He will probably continue being a good pitcher"
Are you under the impression that he’s “a good pitcher” right now?
by O'sFan21 on Jul 4, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given the pitchers in AA and AAA, and Bergesen in the majors...
If you could get abt. 4.75 -4.85 ERA and 200+ innings outta Guthrie for the next 3 years, would you accept him being resigned by MacPhail? I would, and I think that would be very serviceable.
by OldBay83 on Jul 4, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mussina had a down year
with 19 wins? That was his high until last year, 4.80 notwithstanding. I’d LOVE to see
Guthrie win 19 games where the score was 12-10 or some such number.
My humble opinion is we float Guthrie’s name around the NL and see what names float our way. If we end up keeping him, that works too.
1933 was a bad year
by Senatorrosewater on Jul 4, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would support that
The Philthies have some pieces they could trade for Guthrie if that’s the route MacPhail decides to take.
by Dr Orpheus on Jul 6, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yessir
I said it. Relatively speaking, and for him, the number of earned runs he had given up in 1996 was off the mark for his true potential. 19 wins, oh we have to have this discussion. Let’s face it, wins are also the responsibility of the 9 guys batting and playing the field too. Don’t be a fool. 19 wins with a 4.80 ERA, albeit in steroid era baseball (or when “things were looser” as A-rod would say – which makes me wonder about him) suggests mussina got a fair amount of offensive production to back his ass up. As well as a bullpen that could nail things down. Guts had what 7-10 wins the last 2 years with a sub-4.-00 era. I buy into the Earl Weaver quote that everything that matters happens out on the mound, but with a 4.80 era anywhere I would imagine youre getting some good run support. so, YEAH, Mussina’s 19 win, 4.80 ERA season, FOR HIS TALENT LEVEL, was an off year.
by OldBay83 on Jul 6, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disappointed
I am disappointed in his production this year, obviously, but I am surprised to learn that his FIP ERA in the last two seasons was so much higher than his actual ERA. According to fangraphs, his career FIP is 4.73 making him an average pitcher. Considering that we don’t have many of those, I think we should keep him, but you do have to wonder if his trade value is actually higher than his value to the team. Of course, with a bunch of young pitchers/players, I can see a reason to keep him. So I say we keep him unless we get a Bedard like package.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Jul 4, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Guts is a HR pitching machine
Let’s move him out of the rotation and see what our young arms can do. This is not about a love affair for a player but trying to break 11 straight years of losing baseball. Either a player performs or he loses his spot to someone who can perform.
"Losing teams find ways to beat themselves" Jim Palmer
by Baysox39 on Jul 5, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whoa! hold your horses...at least Guts is consistent...
Guthrie will consistently give you 6+ IP and around 3ER every game…granted those runs will probably be scored of of opponent HRs, but I think most of us can agree that that is much better than the 5IP and 5+ ERs allowed by both Berken and Hill. I was never sold on Berken (of course I wanted him to do well though) but he has to be replaced by Tillman soon. And as for Hill I believe he has way too much potential to dump ( I believe with all my heart he’ll pitch a no-hitter one day), but he needs to put some more work in at a lower level for now…If thats possible (I don’t know if he’ll have to clear waivers or anything).
by Tetris on Jul 6, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're a ridiculous post machine.
Do we have 3 starting pitchers better than Guthrie? No, we do not. Also, Rich Hill and Berken need to be removed from the rotation well before Guts.
" I'm happy to announce that we've made Adam Jones our 4th and 5th starting pitcher as well as bench coach and team chaplain" - peter_angelos 8:04 AM May 14th from digsby
"Matt Wieters Adopted Mark Texiera's Parents Because He Felt They Needed A Son To Be Proud Of."
by getxstoked on Jul 6, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have to agree with this
But the issue isn’t so much whether Guts should be “removed” as traded to free up space for Tillman or Patton. Hill needs to be released and Berken’s role will be as a long or middle reliever by as early as next season.
by Dr Orpheus on Jul 7, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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