Looking to 2010: Pitching

Andy has talked about getting a vet arm next year, I like Lee if we really want to go over board or Duchscherer if we want to take a small risk, he has really good stuff.

Harden was still under 30. He’s an injury risk, but he’s hands down one of my favorite pitchers. The dude has nasty stuff. I’d be ecstatic if we signed him. Mark my words. If the O’s sign Harden, I will be throwing a party.

For me there are only 3 pitchers I would look at in the free agent market: Lackey, Harden and Bedard. Lackey will sign in Baltimore the same day I bag Megan Fox. I also can’t imagine a scenario Harden signs in Baltimore. Bedard, however, is a possibility and I think he is a low risk high reward guy who would sign here.

Regarding the kids, I am looking forward to seeing a rotation featuring Guthrie, Bergeson, Tillman and Matusz. I suppose that if we can’t get Bedard, I could live with Hernandez, but I think he is doomed to be a reliever type, though perhaps I’m just buying into the same scouting reports that led me to believe Bergeson would have no place in the rotation. FWIW, I also think Uehara should be named the de facto closer. I’d also like to see Patton and Erbe basically spend all of next year in the AAA, with Arrieta being the first to be called up.

And also, I wouldn’t terribly mind seeing Randy Wolf in Baltimore.

Well its likely the rotation will be something like Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, Hernandez/Guthrie.

Hopefully we can get an Ace-caliber pitcher in the off season, but we can probably due without for one more year. Brandon Erbe probably won’t make it up next year b/c of his command (his last start he only gave up two runs, but five walks). Anyways I think next year we stick with the young arms we have, let them develop and call up the prospects when there ready.

The reports were clear that the O’s went after Looper and Garland this past offseason, and both were essentially unwilling to come here. Which makes a lot of sense from their perspective; their numbers can only suffer by moving to the AL and to the AL East in particular, and this will lower their future paychecks. In addition, the Orioles don’t have the appeal of being a place where maybe you’ll have a harder time doing well, but you’ll get a sure-fire chance to play for a contender.

What this tells me is that we’re unlikely to get the back-end guys to come here without grossly overpaying and without committing to more years than would be wise. And we’re not likely to get the injury rehab cases either, unless no one else wants them. Hudson and Webb are clearly the most appealing members of the group, but Hudson can get a better deal both in terms of length of contract and chance to win somewhere else. If Webb’s option is declined, it will almost certainly be because he has little shot at pitching next season; teams don’t let go Cy Young winners for nothing otherwise. Harden is brittle and will command an expensive long-term deal that we have no business giving him.

I think at the price it would cost to bring any of these guys over (with the possible exception of Bedard), the value just isn’t there. Starting the year with a rotation of Tillman/Bergy/Matusz/Guthrie/Hernandez with Uehara and Bass both in long relief and Arrieta, Erbe, Berken and Patton in AAA with Britton, Spoone and Johnson in Bowie is adequate to our situation, and the benefits of adding Hudson (if such a thing was possible) just doesn’t equal what it would cost.

… a time machine so they can go back and pick Zack Greinke over Adam suck Ass and Tim Linicum (from right here in Bellevue, WA) over Billy Rowell.

Greinke / Linicum / Guthrie (another NW guy) / Bergesen / Hernandez this year sounds like a rotation I can rosterbate to.

(And while he’s back there, Andy can select Dave Wright as well.)