Looking Back on the Draft

by Andrew @ TLC on Sep 19, 2009 2:44 PM EDT Comment 14 comments

I was looking over the players who the Orioles drafted this past year and who played in Aberdeen, Bluefield, and Delmarva (so players like Cam Coffey are omitted) and I noticed a few fun facts that jumped out at me that I thought would be good to share

In terms of impact hitters, there isn't much here that is going to revolutionize the system the way Caleb Joseph or Ronnie Welty or even Xavier Avery can. The best hitter has been probably Ironbirds' third baseman Tyler Kelly (.357 OBP) or maybe the centerfielder Brenden Webb in the GCL (.352 OBP).
The three "big name" bats were probably Tyler Townsend, Steve Bumbry, and Mike Flacco and none of them were really particularly impressive. Bumbry is my favorite, playing centerfield for Aberdeen with a .342 OBP, but 55 strikeouts in 148 plate appearances is Awful. Flacco had all of 37 K in 243 PA, so there is probably more to work with with him (starting with how to take a walk - he walked only 16 times all year. Townsend had a miserable year with a .226 OBP. Early returns and all that, but that is Awful.
The pitching side has more promise from my point of view. Only the much-discussed Matthew Hobgood was a designated starter (everyone else who played relieved), but check this: of the ten pitchers who pitched, only one of them (David Baker in the GCL) had a GO/AO under 1.00. As a group, they gave up 0.303 home runs per nine innings! I do not know if this was a draft strategy to get more sinkers in the system for prolonged success at OPACY (though if it isn't, that should probably be the strategy in such a home run hitting environment), but that was sort of eye-opening.

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Very nice.

As a group, they gave up 0.303 home runs per nine innings! I do not know if this was a draft strategy to get more sinkers in the system for prolonged success at OPACY (though if it isn’t, that should probably be the strategy in such a home run hitting environment), but that was sort of eye-opening.

That’s actually some very insightful analysis. Solid work.

by Y Not on Sep 19, 2009 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

holy shit, i missed the revolution?

or is it in our midst? wowza

by b_duardo on Sep 19, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Flacco?

Come on. . .

"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer

by Baltimo on Sep 19, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Big names?

You must be thinking of Al bumbry and Joe flacco. Mychal givens was the top bat drafted and then a couple of catchers.

by b_duardo on Sep 19, 2009 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The drafting of

multiple catchers by us at this point somewhat perplexes me. I know you need plenty of them, but maybe take a different route…

by sickuvitall on Sep 20, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alot of players switch positions in the minors

Brandon Snyder started out as a catcher. He’s since moved to 3rd and now 1st. Adam Jones was a SS when he was drafted. It’s very rare for a player to stick to the position he was drafted at, especially high school players. So you’ve got to just take the best talent available and worry about positions later.

by edsachs1 on Sep 20, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on every point

and catchers are often convertible to corner IF spots, but I hesitate to apply useful draft picks to one position so heavily…that’s all.

by sickuvitall on Sep 20, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me clarify

The “big name” bats thing is silly, yeah, but when you look at the list, you will really only recognize a small handful. And like I said, nobody is really hitting to make you think this is a hitting draft by a hitting organization – because it isn’t, and we aren’t. But those were the only three recognizable names (and Bumbry and Flacco are totally just fun stories, but whatever).

Givens didn’t play this year. So he didn’t get in on this pass. As for the catchers, well, you don’t want to just completely ignore a position and then be bereft of one, and you also don’t usually draft by position or for need.

Lotta people go through life doing things badly. Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.

by Andrew @ TLC on Sep 20, 2009 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not even going to lie, I liked Jacob Turner over Hobgood.

by No More Steroids Please on Sep 20, 2009 3:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I liked a lot of pitchers ahead of Hobgood, even just sticking to high schoolers. But…you know, there is absolutely no reason to keep harping on this. It’s just sour grapes at this point, and nobody likes sour grapes. And, you know, the odds of Hobgood turning into a successful major leaguer are basically the same as Turner or Matzek right now.

Lotta people go through life doing things badly. Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.

by Andrew @ TLC on Sep 21, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not so sure

I do not know if this was a draft strategy to get more sinkers in the system for prolonged success at OPACY (though if it isn’t, that should probably be the strategy in such a home run hitting environment), but that was sort of eye-opening.

I think you draft best available regardless of stuff or position. If we draft 10 catchers so be it. If we draft a bunch of big bodied types, so be it. If we draft a bunch of wiry flamethrowers, so be it. I think being married any strategy outside of best available results in picking lesser players.

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Sep 22, 2009 1:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I was thinking about Dave Duncan and how he has many pitchers start to throw two-seamers to wild success, and how the White Sox teach all of their pitchers cut fastballs and how Brian Bannister turned his career around by learning the two-seamer and stuff like that. Like how Bill James and Joe Posnanski were arguing the other week about how small market teams need to be more creative. Grab a monopoly on the market for pitchers who only throw in the 80s and other crazy ideas like that.

Then I figure, why wouldn’t the Orioles try making the sinker ball sort of a franchise trademark? They play in a hitter’s ballpark, they want to build a team on pitching and defense, and they play home run hitting teams from New York and Boston 36 times a year – the sinker would be a very effective weapon (probably reason number 1 why Zach Britton is intriguing to me).

So, if I can spin what I said, maybe I’m not suggesting that they specifically only went out and drafted sinker ballers, but perhaps they saw a great many pitchers who were draftable and threw the sinker already?

Lotta people go through life doing things badly. Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.

by Andrew @ TLC on Sep 22, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course

It would also help if the sinkerballers who are already on the team could throw it effectively (I’m looking at YOU, JJ). Ugh.

"The United States is the New York Yankees of countries...powerful and respected until the year 2000." - Homer J. Simpson

by Brotz13 on Sep 22, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice Post

I seriously think they should Only go after College players in the top 5 rounds until they are entrenched as a team that will compete for the division. I know they spent some good coin on some of the 2009 draftees. I’ve no problem with Hobgood as a prospect it’s just that he is easily 5 years from making a major league debut and they passed on some really talented College players much closer to contributing in the majors to get him. I really hope that I am eating those words five years from now. But until then it’s another projected gigantic maybe on the club’s part.

"Just like an a**hole! Everyone has one and it's usually full of *hit!!!!" -Warren Sapp

"People have been listening to Jim Palmer talk since before I was born because he is right. Sit down, shut up and listen to what he has to say."- I said it so bite me.

by O's_Watcher on Oct 7, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs