Prospect Update: Matthew Hobgood

by sickuvitall on Sep 7, 2009 12:10 AM EDT Comment 53 comments

When the Orioles selected high school pitcher Matt Hobgood with the fifth overall pick in the last draft, there was certainly mixed feelings at first. Some said the pick was a "money conscious" move by the front office, although Hobgood did receive a hefty $2.42 million signing bonus. Since then, the general consensus has seemed positive as Oriole fans alike now just want to see the young right hander succeed.

Hobgood, out of California, has impressive physical stats. Standing 6'4'' and checking in around 245 lbs, Matt should have the size and stamina to handle the grind of a full professional season. His fastball clocks in the low 90's with the ability to get as high as 95mph when needed. The pitch that has many people talking is the sharp-breaking curve ball that had California high schoolers buckled (draft day video clip).

Since signing with the organization Hobgood has been with the Bluefield Orioles (West Virginia) working as a starter. The team has clearly been using Matt very cautiously, as he has yet to work more that five innings in any of his eight starts. He has also been averaging 6-7 days rest between outings, which may have made it difficult to find consistency.

The numbers have been relatively decent. His best effort (and only win thus far) came August 13 when Hobgood pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only two hits. He has lost two decisions, including his worst outing on August 20 which saw Matt allow six earned runs over four tough innings. Hobgood's ERA finished at 4.73, a number that shouldn't be too troubling considering the circumstances.

With his season now over and fall/winter ball unlikely for such a young arm, Hobgood can focus on the off-season and hopefully keeping his ~~Ponsonesque~~ pleasantly plump frame in shape. It is tough to say what the front office will decide is the proper promotion for Matt in 2010. There are only two real choices: short season Aberdeen or Class A Delmarva. They can afford to be slow to move him through the system, so Delmarva may be a stretch. Wherever he goes, the key will be developing more pitches to add to his now-limited repertoire.

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Great writeup.

Thanks for the update. I didn’t realize Hobgood’s physique was “Ponsonesque.” Ugh.

"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo

by zknower on Sep 7, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I cringe

when I hear people say that.

When you're born into the human race you're given a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you're given a front row seat. And some of us have notepads.-George Carlin

by Afghanistan Steve on Sep 7, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I wrote that

I hesitated to use that phrase, because it is more potential to become that than actually being that. Hobgood is a big fella, meaning that he may have to do more conditioning than a naturally smaller pitcher. Hopefully he is willing to put in the time that El Fat did not.

by sickuvitall on Sep 7, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theres also plenty of pitchers his size that are very successful

I’d avoid using Ponson-esque just because of the connotation of associating anything with Sid. You could just as easily use Sabathiaesque (who has an almost identical BMI to Ponson, although his bigger in both weight and height). A scouting video also compared his frame to Josh Beckett.

by kba26 on Sep 7, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The strikethrough has occurred

No more Sid refs…

by sickuvitall on Sep 7, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"pleasantly plump"?

lol

"I think my motivation is to see the other guys in the clubhouse. They’re contending for the playoffs, and when I see that it gets into my body. I play like it’s the playoffs too" —Memlo

by zknower on Sep 8, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I worry more about character of the Ponsonesque quality

By the way, I really like the word Ponsonesque. Great job.

by Y Not on Sep 7, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really hate that hat he's wearing...

by NewYorkOriole on Sep 7, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah...

the rookie league unis are lame.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Sep 7, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am sure you

recognize that particular logo from the early or mid 90’s. Not very appealing, hence its non-existence with the big club…

by sickuvitall on Sep 7, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would he start at Bluefield next year as well?

by No More Steroids Please on Sep 8, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probabluy Aberdeen, given his age

MAYBE Delmarva, but probably Aberdeen.

Jim Palmer: "I said to Nolan, 'Why do you run every ball out like that?' and he said, 'Why wouldn’t you?' "

by duck on Sep 8, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just wonder

what the O’s will do with him until Aberdeen begins play about a month-and-a-half after everyone else. Extended ST I guess…

by sickuvitall on Sep 8, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that's right...

i think.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Sep 8, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He SHOULD start at Delmarva

Here’s a look at the high school pitchers drafted in the first round of the past 3 drafts (2006-2008) and where they started the following year:

Ethan Martin- low A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Jarrod Parker- low A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Madison Bumgarner- low A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Phillippe Aumont- low A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Blake Beavan- low A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Chris Withrow- high A ball
Tim Alderson- high A ball
Rich Porcello- high A ball (no rookie ball experience)
Clayton Kershaw- low A ball
Kasey Kiker- low A ball (started at short season A ball)
Jeremy Jeffress- low A ball
Kyle Drabek- low A ball
Colton Wilems- short season A ball

As you can see all but one of them began the next season in at least low A ball, half of them without playing in rookie ball at all. The one that did start at short season the following year was the last high school pitcher taken in the first round that year (not counting supplemental round). I would say it’d be a huge disappointment if Hobgood did start with Delmarva next season.

by edsachs1 on Sep 8, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fingers crossed

I have my fingers crossed when it comes to Hobgood. I was delighted when we chose Wieters and Matusz. Both had outstanding college careers. Both were highly regarded by other teams. The Hobgood pick had me scratching my head. No other team rated him nearly as high as we did. I also have a bias against HS pitchers because they are such risky choices. He also seemed fat, which can reflect indiscipline.

Since the draft I remain unimpressed. His numbers at Bluefield were mediocre. I hope that he pans out, but I am still unhappy with the pick. I can see several years of the Billy Rowell, “give him time, he is still young” mantra.

by BaltoBen on Sep 8, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He was limited to 5 innings a start

so W-L is meaningless – he was almost never in a game long enough to record a win. And even if he gave up 2 ER in 5 IP, that’s an ERA of almost 4.00 – not many chances to drive the number down if you give up a few early runs. Next year is the year to really look at his numbers, when he’s allowed to pitch through the 6th and maybe even the 7th each start.

Jim Palmer: "I said to Nolan, 'Why do you run every ball out like that?' and he said, 'Why wouldn’t you?' "

by duck on Sep 8, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing that disappoints me

Is that this team is, supposedly, supposed to start contending in 2011, and I don’t see how Hobgood could start contributing by then. Sure, our window of opportunity would hopefully be longer than that, but in this division, you never really know…

He likely will become a reliable player for us in the future, I just wish the O’s had maybe picked someone who could have more of an immediate impact (although it could be said that high upside HS arms were the strength of the draft).

by cjatud2012 on Sep 8, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lol

“Supposedly, supposed?” My bad, that was not smooth…

by cjatud2012 on Sep 8, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not worried about that

You have to keep players in the pipeline if you want to keep competing. You can’t just build for 2011 and forget about beyond that.

Earl Weaver would’ve kissed Adam Dunn on the mouth in public. - SC 08/11/08

by Stacey on Sep 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hobgood's not on the 2011 path, never was.

I can’t imagine the O’s drafted him thinking he’d be with the big club by then. You keep drafting pitching, even when you think you might have enough. Because you NEVER have enough pitching.

Jim Palmer: "I said to Nolan, 'Why do you run every ball out like that?' and he said, 'Why wouldn’t you?' "

by duck on Sep 8, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

There really wasn’t an immediate impact player available there, anyway

by cjatud2012 on Sep 8, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure you can

add guys like rich hill or chris ray to your team and you have too much pitching.

by twistedlogic on Sep 8, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You add guys like Rich Hill

because you don’t have enough, and guys like Rich Hill are better than what you have.

Jim Palmer: "I said to Nolan, 'Why do you run every ball out like that?' and he said, 'Why wouldn’t you?' "

by duck on Sep 12, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be completely honest

i’d have to see even the orioles awful pitching staff has no room for rich hill

by twistedlogic on Sep 17, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

you add guys like Rich Hill because you have nothing to lose. The Rich Hill experiment didn’t work out, but it doesn’t mean the Orioles shouldn’t have done it.

The same could be said for Chris Ray. He was effective in the past, then he was injured. It doesn’t hurt to see what he can do in a year when you have the luxury to do so.

I would have much more enjoyed if you’d said something like Adam Eaton, Victor Zambrano, Victor Santos, etc.

Earl Weaver would’ve kissed Adam Dunn on the mouth in public. - SC 08/11/08

by Stacey on Sep 17, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i dont think the orioles should have done it

why is adam eaton any different? he sucks as much as hill does and it didn’t require a trade to get him.

by twistedlogic on Sep 17, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you don't know the differences

between Adam Eaton and Rich Hill, then I don’t know what to say to you.

Earl Weaver would’ve kissed Adam Dunn on the mouth in public. - SC 08/11/08

by Stacey on Sep 17, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um they both suck

sounds pretty similar to me

by twistedlogic on Sep 17, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why is adam eaton any different?

Hill is a couple years younger. And he has a more upside than Eaton.

"You don’t EVEN KNOW who birdman is!"

by birdman on Sep 17, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right. They both sucked, but one had the potential to be better. The other is just a bad pitcher with enough experience that we know what he is.

I wonder if I can bill Jeff Lurie and Peter Angelos for the years of therapy their teams are going to put me through.

by BrianS on Sep 19, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rich hill never had the potential to be better

he had one decent season with the cubs but was awful last year. ended up getting demoted to both the pen and AAA. did you think that was going to change here?

by twistedlogic on Sep 19, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rich hill never had the potential to be better

This is flat out ridiculous. NEVER? Are you kidding me? His ZiPS projection for 2009 was 4.21. Not only was his 2007 season excellent (ERA+ 119), but his 2006 season was very good as well (ERA+ 111 in the bigs in 99.1 IPs. Not to mention that he utterly dominated AAA in 2006 as well). Rich Hill has always been erratic in his pro career (see John Sickels’ excellent take here). Given his erratic nature, it was perfectly reasonsable to believe he might bounce back. And if he did bounce back this year, I think it would be reasonable to believe he might suddenly regress again next year. I hope the O’s haven’t given up on him. I still think he could be a contributor next year.

"You don’t EVEN KNOW who birdman is!"

by birdman on Sep 19, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why do you always bring ridiculous stats into these arguments?

i dont give a fuck what his ass projections or “uzr” ratings say. he sucks. he had one good season with the cubs and another okay season. last season was awful. erratic does not mean “potential to bounce back.” it just means erratic.

by twistedlogic on Sep 20, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why do you always bring ridiculous stats into these arguments?

Sorry, I’ll keep my ridiculous stats to myself next time.

"You don’t EVEN KNOW who birdman is!"

by birdman on Sep 20, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Hitters are generally pretty bad at rookie ball (learning how to hit with wood bats and all – allowed a number of my friends to have a good first year in professional baseball despite having sub-par stuff), so if he had 1st round stuff he should have been able to pretty much dominate regardless of whether he’s only pitching 5 innings per start. What were his k/bb numbers? I guess if those were really good it would make me feel better. I don’t really care about ERA, but obviously he gave up a bunch of runs.

by O'sFan21 on Sep 8, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here are his complete stats

26.2 IP, 32 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 16 K, 0 HR, 1.50 WHIP, 10.8 H/9, 2.7 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB

Earl Weaver would’ve kissed Adam Dunn on the mouth in public. - SC 08/11/08

by Stacey on Sep 8, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks - I'm really lazy. haha

Pretty underwhelming, but it is a really small sample. 0 hrs is about the only good thing about that stat line. 16 K’s in 26.2 innings is really disappointing to me considering he’s facing guys swinging wood for the first time, many of whom have little to no plate discipline.

by O'sFan21 on Sep 8, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its also really hard to judge minor league stats without knowing what kind of program he's on

They very well could have him working on things that dont translate into immediate success as reflected by his current stats, but are important to his performance in the future.

by kba26 on Sep 8, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He may have had orders to work on specific pitches, etc...

Jim Palmer: "I said to Nolan, 'Why do you run every ball out like that?' and he said, 'Why wouldn’t you?' "

by duck on Sep 8, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

like matusz...

i believe for his first several starts at frederick he wasn’t allowed to use his curve and was just working on spotting his fastball.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Sep 8, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to finish the thought...

it’s probably reverse for hobgood. a high school kid doesn’t get drafted first round w/o good raw stuff, so maybe they’re getting him working on his secondary stuff early.

"If they pitch to you, make them pay."

--Diamond Dave to the Phenom

by j.q. higgins on Sep 8, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but...

even if he’s throwing just fastball he should be getting K’s if he has a mid-90s fastball like he was supposed to. Also it would be odd if they had him working on things right off the bat before even seeing what he’s got. Usually the working on things like that happens in their 2nd pro season after they’ve had a chance to fully evaluate.

by O'sFan21 on Sep 8, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just can't see

getting too down on him yet. It really is entirely too early for all that.

by sickuvitall on Sep 9, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I'm not too down on him at all.

It’s 26 innings. But I would have liked to see some more K from him considering who he’s facing.

by O'sFan21 on Sep 9, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Truth

In an ideal world, you want your #1 pick to dominate everyone else’s #15 picks.

You have to figure nerves were a factor, plus the guy is only working with two pitches at this point. Improvement is almost inevitable. Next year will be very important in Hobgood’s development that is for sure.

by sickuvitall on Sep 9, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

It’ll be interesting to see what he does with a full season.

by O'sFan21 on Sep 9, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, the writeups on Hobby all say that he gets stronger as he gets deeper into the games as well, much like Bartolo Colon(another good comp for body size). So you gotta think about it like you mentioned, 2 runs in 5 IP is about an ERA of 4. Assuming he possgave up those 2 runs in the first, and he woulda kept cruising until the 7th, that makes a huge difference in his ERA.

He has 2 plus pitches as an 18 Y/O. Thats an awesome starting place as mentioned on OH. You wanna make comparisons, Matusz was drafted in the 4th round a few years ago, and Hobgood at the same point and time in age is better than Matusz was, so his ceiling is nice and high, but just comparing the 2 makes your realize how good Hobgood is and can be given his age. ANother thing is that as he gets into shape, he may gain more velo ala Strasburg. Just give him a chance, before we know it, he could have 3 or 4 plus to plus-plus offerings and be our future workhorse from the front of the rotation…

by QBsIllest1 on Sep 14, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs