Is there a point to winning more games without contending?
Last year, the Orioles lost 98 games, 5 fewer than the MLB-"leading" Washington Nationals. Going into last year, there could not have been much optimism for the team either: they had lost 93 games in 2008, and were certainly not expected to contend in a stacked AL East.
And yet, the Orioles spent around 25 million dollars on 1 and 2 year contracts to guys like Cesar Izturis and Koji Uehara. All-in-all, the free agent signings of the 2008-2009 offseason accounted for about 4 wins (according to WAR), even with the sudden failure of Ty Wigginton's ability to play baseball.
According to research done by Sky Andrecheck, there's a huge difference between the #1 and #2 draft picks in expected value over their career. There seems to also be a plateau roughly contained within the top-5 picks. Now, take away those 4 wins the Orioles gained, and all-of-a-sudden they're fighting with the Nationals for that invaluable #1 overall pick, and presumably have the money to sign him.This year, the Orioles have again looked to improve their team for the immediate future. Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood are perfect examples of players who could well add 5 wins to the team this year, when they have little chance of doing anything, and then contribute nothing in a few years from now when many feel the Orioles will be real contenders as their young players continue to develop. Those wins, combined with the growth and use of players like Wieters and Matusz, could take the Orioles out of that top-5 pick area and into a top-15 area.
When it comes down to it, I can't see many advantages to acquiring these veteran free agents to help win a couple games when a team gains little from winning--at least not from a purely analytical point of view. These sorts of signings didn't seem to inspire any great increase in attendance last year. I suppose there's something to be said for the idea that bringing Tejada back might put some butts in the seats, but certainly the amount would be fairly negligible compared to the number coming to see the youth movement.
So that's why I've come here, to you folks at Camden Chat, to ask how you feel about this. When you don't think your team is in contention, are those extra few wins important? Or would you rather try to, in effect, tank the offseason in order to have a shot at a better draft pick? Is it important to have the organization appear to be making an effort, as it were, even at the potential loss of actual value?
Thanks for reading.
FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors of Camden Chat or SB Nation. They might, though.
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It seems as though tanking games would be the obvious choice here
The benefits are quite clear. But like it or not, my every day mood is affected by whether the Orioles won or lost the previous night. If I have to endure another one or two seasons to ensure maximum draft value, I would be pretty miserable.
Also, the fun thing about baseball is that sometimes you may not have a championship calibur ballclub, but you have a pretty good one. Looking back on it, 1992 was a pretty good year to be an Orioles fan. First year of Camden Yards and the team had a winning record even though the pennant was never truly within reach. I wouldn’t say that was a wasted year, and if alot, (and I mean alot) of things go right, I would like to see the team have a year like they did in 1992.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Is there a point!?!?!
The point is to help build a better atmosphere in the clubhouse. Winning games is good for the young guys. Not even Roberts knows what it’s like to win. The difference this year is we have one year deals instead of three year deals. Next year when more young guys arrive, maybe the current core will be able to teach them a little. I get what you’re saying about the draft, but what good is a continuous crop of young talent if they never mature. It might look like the Pirates.
A few thoughts
Nice post. Interesting topic.
The importance of winning now cannot be overlooked. A winning season would boost the morale of the organization, players, fans, and city. To think that we can go straight from last to first in one year isn’t reasonable…so it needs to start somewhere, why not 2010?
+1
You have to start somewhere.
What up?
by snakethejake on Jan 30, 2010 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
yes
it’s called showing improvement. the fans of baltimore are loyal we come out to games even when the sux and stankess fans out number us 5-1 to show our support all we ask for is to atleast contend if not in the division atleast in the games
It's an interesting question
I think that in a vacuum, yeah if you’re not going to win enough games to contend it’s better to lose as many as possible. But there are so many other factors at play. One is showing marked improvement over a period of time to get to a place where you can content. Not many teams win 54 games in one year and go to the playoffs the next. You also have to take into account the human factor. What happens to the guys on your 54 win team with talent when t hey see that you’re tanking for draft picks? How about the fans?
I will lead these Peoples to the promised land, also known as "Slightly Ahead of the Blue Jays." ~WietersRunDry
"Contending" means something different in this division.
Seven times out of 10, the AL champion came from this division last decade. If we ever win the division or even just the wild card, we will already be the cream of the crop.
I think “contending” basically means that the team, all things being equal (luck, Pythagorean record, a balanced schedule), is about 81-81. I’d be happy to see it.
The Orioles could be as good as 81-81, but because of their division, they’d finish with 75 wins. I’d just be happy to say that Baltimore is the home of a quality baseball team.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
balanced schedule...
HA!
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
spread the word please!
by danielreese05 on Jan 27, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
The O's better win games
If only as a by product of guys like Matusz, Tillman, Jones, Wieters, Bergesen getting better. Those veterans are to help stabilize the lineup – we’re talking basically league average guys instead of the crap the O’s threw out there last year. I believe that the O’s are hoping the team can flirt with .500 ball if all goes well, and that’s important for a fan base that has decided increasingly stay away from the Park. MacPhail is in a tough position of building a team that is not quite there and give the fans some reason to get excited. At least he seems to be building towards a team that could compete – later.
If the O’s were down in the dumps and rebuilding after a strong run, I’d feel differently about the need to win some games now. But they are coming off years of really bad baseball and facing a tough economy. They need to generate some kind of buzz.
The young guys need to put pressure on MacPhail to make the next moves beyond just getting league average free agents. They’ll do that by winning. If they do, we’ll see if MacPhail and Angelos really intend to take the plunge and try to compete in the AL East.
Interesting question. I pretty much agree with what’s been said here so far. I don’t think the O’s should mortgage the future right now to get to 81 wins by any means, but I think for Orile fan morale/psyche, the difference between 79 and 81 wins — ending this horrid streak of losing seasons as quickly as possible — would be huge.
I think it’s important as soon as possible to show fans they’re going in the right direction in terms of W-L to get buts in the seats, even if the biggest improvements are more behind the scenes to the most casual fans.
Well
losing as many games as possible is a pretty ridiculous idea. If you took that approach and got the number 1 pick, then what do you do next year? Do you go for the number 1 pick again? You’re sure as hell not going to jump from being the worst team in baseball to winning the division in a single off-season. And what happens to the already pathetic attendance if you’re the worst team in baseball? And if we’re losing every game, that means our young guys are obviously doing bad – how can that possibly be a good thing?
Baseball seasons are not like light switches where you can decide year to year whether you’re going to try to win or not. If you want to have a contending team at some point you have to start at some bottom (hopefully last year was it!) and start making steady improvements year after year. And it’s not like they signed these guys this offseason just to win 4-5 more games. They signed them because we had big gaping holes and the internal options were either not ready or ugly as hell.
The Pirates get a top 5 pick pretty much every year and play in a shit division – look where it’s gotten them.
The Rays lost 96 games in 2007, so it's not impossible to go from worst-to-first.
I agree that it’s not a “light switch” situation as you’d say. But I do think it’s something that can be influenced by a few games either way with these types of veteran FA signings. Obviously there were gaping holes that needed to be filled, but couldn’t the Orioles have brought in someone who, as bad as it sounds, wasn’t going to contribute? I can understand Tejada to some extent, because of the history with the team, but why bother with Kevin Millwood?
Many of you guys have mentioned the distinction between, say, 79-83 and 81-81, and that I can understand. When it comes down to it, it’s still basically semantics and irrational emotion, but that’s what I came here for. Still, though, I, for one, question if that’s really possible for this year’s team. Next year, maybe, sure. But why not get all the “value” you can out of your worst years?
As far as general attendance is concerned, I would think that the potential to extend winning seasons into, say, decade+ long periods of contention would be worth more than the small bump gained by putting Millwood out there every 5 starts. Orioles fans have filled up Camden when they’ve won, and I’d say a 100% boost in attendance for a bunch of years is worth the risk of a few down years. The Pirates are an awful organization which can’t seem to build a farm system, and seem to make a point of trading away their best players for average talent as compared to, say, guys like Jones and Tillman. The Rays, however, spent plenty of time in the basement and now have both one of the strongest teams in the AL and one of the strongest farm systems in the league, and they’ve been drafting pretty consistently in the top-5.
Generally, I’m not saying the goal should be to stay in the bottom-3 every year until you break out and win 100. I’m just saying it might be more worth it to push your results down a tier each year. From top-3 to top-1. From 8 or so down into the top-5. Back into the top-10 when you’re in the top parts of the protected pick area. And then, when you’re finally heading towards that winning territory, you go all-out. Though by that point, many of your positions should be filled by home-grown players that you’ve got locked up long-term for relatively cheap.
Of course, an exception can be made if you plan to trade a guy halfway through the season for a known quantity prospect. I think Adam Dunn could’ve been a brilliant move for the Nationals if they’d unloaded him halfway through last season. Get big return thanks to Dunn’s production, while at the same time not hurting their draft position too much since Dunn is so costly in the field.
Of course, all that is moot if the answer is just “I really need to see the Orioles at least do the best they can do this year”, which I’d say is a pretty legitimate desire for any fanbase.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
That's once that it happened
And so many things had to go right for them (Yankees getting a ton of injuries for example) and look at what happened the next year – back to 3rd.
And for every case like the Rays there are the Pirates who draft top 5 every year and are horrible every year.
I don't think the Orioles should tank
or vie specifically for the number 1 (or a top 5) draft pick. I think it is very important to see that the team is starting to grow and getting on the road to championship caliber.
But these signings this winter don’t do that. They are stopgap players who have a good possibility of taking away playing time from some young talent that may or may not be a part of the championship core that the Orioles are trying to build. These four guys the Orioles added artificially inflate the wins total and give the fans an illusion of the quality of progress. Meanwhile, yes the lower draft picks might hurt – and the loss of another draft pick for the sake of signing a reliever hurts, too.
On the other hand, I just want to say I root for a winning team for once in my life…I really do. But it shouldn’t come at the cost of wins in 2011 or 2012.
"I like baseball, movies, good clothes, whiskey, fast cars ... and you. What else you need to know?"
Thanks for being a cool Red Sox fan!
Seriously, it’s nice to have an intelligent discussion with a fan of another team (any team) that doesn’t degenerate into mud-slinging. That being said, I don’t have much else to add that hasn’t already been said (and probably much more eloquently) up above, but I just wanted to mention that.
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
+1
It’s a contrast between the fans that come to Camden Yards and fans like you. I guess it’s a different atmosphere during a game. Or maybe it’s hard to deal with the fact the Red Sox fans always outnumber O’s fans. Thanks for posting this, it’s a good question from an outsider, which is nice.
Ha, I'm glad it was so well taken.
You never know what you’re going to get when crossing fanbase lines. I was expecting accusations of trolling and insults just as much as I was expecting this. I’ll keep in mind that Camden Chat is one of the civilized blogs of the world.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 28, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks!
No, trolling would have been if you showed up and were like ‘teh Red SOx are the besteam in the laegue, Oreoloes suxors! i luv Fenway South!’ or something.
Oh and after 12 losing seasons you’d be ecstatic to just hit .500. :-)
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
by NewYorkOriole on Jan 28, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
The one thing that i dont believe anybody has mentioned
Is that by bringing in these players there is no pressure to bring a prospect up before they force the point. This could protect our prospects/our future. I think thats reason enough, plus you have all points mentioned above.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
You mean we haven't been tanking all along.
Now I’m pissed.
"Daddy, is Hevan like BIRDLAND?"
"No son, Hevan is BIRDLAND."
dayzdtoe, I think; and it is
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
i see where you're coming from
here’s my argument.
1.) you need to at least attempt to generate fan interest. if no one goes to any of the games and you lose, well the team may just skip town in the middle of the night. and for the citizens of baltimore, one major franchise being relocated was enough. note that i am fully aware that it would take many years of constant last-place finishes to induce such a move, but this is an extreme example. note also that i’m not saying the orioles bring out crowds by the tens of thousands for every game, far from it, but the point is that people came to the games knowing that even though we aren’t so great now, we may just be on to something.
2.) it’s not all about the number 1 pick. wieters, one of the best prospects in the game if not the best, was drafted 5th overall. there’s only one guy on the list ahead of him who i can name. of course, he was the number one pick (david price) but sometimes, the 5th pick ends up playing better than the guys drafted 2-4. look, i know talent takes a little while to develop, but wieters was a nearly instant impact guy considering it only took him a little over two seasons to travel through three levels of baseball. the other guys on the list, david price, mike moustakas, josh vitters, and daniel moskos are, with the exception of price, still kicking around in the farm system.
3.) veteran free agents bring interest, interest brings people (at least for a little while), people bring money, money brings success.
4.) no one out-tanks the nats. no one.
http://draftdayencyclopedia.wordpress.com/
spread the word please!
To your second point
The MLB draft is different from other drafts in that signability may be a bigger factor in drafting someone than their actual ability. Pedro Alvarez fell to Pittsburgh in the 2008 draft even though he was pretty much the consensus number one player.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Point #3 is important
I think while there is varying legitimacy to the arguments about the fan base and the “culture of losing” and stuff, I think it’s important to actually be viewed as an attractive place to play. Few upper echelon free agents actually sign with the downtrodden, so in order to get that missing piece, it has to be clear that your team doesn’t need 7 pieces. Plus, it’s important that pitchers mature, and their development can be uneven. I think it’s important for the Orioles to win 75+ games in 2010 so that a guy like Carlos Pena or some other free agent will actually consider signing in Baltimore. The Orioles are in the unique opportunity of having really only a few holes in 2011, and it’ll be interesting to see what Bell and Snyder can do in extended stays in AAA. But if it’s clear that one or both can’t hack it, I’d much rather appeal to free agents who are better than, say, Garrett Atkins.
Librarians are hiding something
reply fail
This was meant to be a reply to Daniel’s post above mine, for now at least!
Librarians are hiding something
Anybody remember Joe Namath?
He wins the Super Bowl, becomes an instant legend…and his knees start falling apart (even faster than they were).
For years the Jets are hoping to recreate the SB magic— and wondering when (or whether) they should risk Namath’s knees to do it. He comes back from his latest operation (of many), does his re-hab, and is ready to go for Week 13— at which point the Jets are 5-7 and not contending for anything, obviously.
So the cry goes out from the fans: Should we risk Joe Willie’s knees, the possible key to another Super Bowl, in a series of meaningless end-of-season games— or save him for next year?
The answer: you’re paying the guy a big buncha $ to play quarterback, not to sit around watching his understudy do it (while being paid considerably less). Of course there are risks, and of course the team management is paid to be concerned about the franchise in the long haul as well as the short. But playing the game is the Prime Function; you put your best people out to do it, and you expect them to try to win, too.
It’s going to take a lot to talk me into a Strategic Tanking frame of mind. Hey, if I pay to go to OPACY, I deserve to see a team that’s trying to win the game. With the exception of Publicity Stunt Day lovers (Campy Campaneris Will Play All 9 Positions, folks!), I suspect everybody feels that way. Are we wrong?
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
What you don't mention
Joe Namath was never a good enough player to be the difference between a team going to a Super Bowl or not. Career 65.5 QB rating.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Joe’s star was always greater than his playing ability.
Maybe in order to understand mankind, we have to look at the word itself: "Mankind". Basically, it's made up of two separate words—"mank" and "ind". What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind.
-Jack Handey
Indeed, far greater—.which is why there was such a persistent perception, defying statistical reality, that he could lead the team back to the SB.
The point, in any case, is that if he (or anybody analogous) is fit to play, and he is the best player available at the position, then he should play— and the team should play to win, whether they’re 5-7 or 1-11. The proof-of-pudding test in that league, I guess, is when two 0-15 teams meet on the last day of the season with the rights to a player widely acknowledged as the No. 1 Draft Choice of the Decade going to the loser.
But yeah, the answer is still: you play to win. And you should use your best guys trying to do it— at least for the first half, after which you might be able to get away with “We wanted to get a good look at some of our up-and-coming people”, or some other bushwah to that effect, if the score is sufficiently moot either way.
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Churchill,1942-- a rebuilding year.
You play to win unless .......
…… you are the 14 – 0 Colts and are leading in the 3rd quarter. Who cares about NFL history? Not Polian. (jerk) The Colt fans should still be pissed for throwing away a chance at a perfect season because their quarterback “MIGHT” get injured. Crap. They pay the guy to play, and fans want to see him play. The Colts spit in the eye of the NFL. I hope they lose the Superbowl.
Ah, but are you paying big money to watch Kevin Millwood?
I can’t speak to the mindset of an Orioles fan, but I imagine I’d be much more interested in seeing Markakis and Wieters, for instance.
I guess there could be an art to it for GMs, based on the idea of getting the most out of your bad seasons. How do you put out a good product entertainment wise while minimizing the number of wins you’re going to get “pointlessly”.
I wonder if there ARE GMs who actively try to keep their win totals down. Certainly, in the NBA and NFL, there’s been plenty of talk about tanking (the Celtics were guilty in ‘06-’07) over the years. The MLB draft is noticeably more under-the-radar, but based on Andrecheck’s numbers, at least, it would seem like there’s a very similar curve to what you see in the NBA first round.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 28, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
This is all quite silly to me. Fans go the the ballpark more often when their team wins games. Everyone does it, and it’s not like there’s a magical contending button that opens the floodgates. More people going to the ballpark and buying memorabilia = more money for the Orioles to spend. Millwood, Tejada are bread and butter for rebuilding teams. They aren’t expensive, they aren’t being overpaid by the Orioles, and they’re earning their keep by making going to games more enjoyable. As long as we’re talking 1 year deals it’s all upside. Not to mention, guys like Millwood, Tejada and such are how trades happen. These are guys that we can flip at the deadline for prospects/cash, which helps with the rebuilding.
AH, but you say, we could spend that money on scouting and the draft and foreign prospects to rebuild. That’s true. BUT… as long as Millwood is playing well for the Orioles, more fans are coming to see the Orioles play and they’re making more money. I know I’m a perfect example of this. I never once watched Adam Eaton pitch for the Orioles last year. Never took the time. I did however, want to watch Brad Bergesen every time I had the chance. Why? Because Adam Eaton sucks and Brad Bergesen is awesome. Now we have no more Adam Eatons stinking up the roster. Miguel Tejada is way more fun to watch play than Garret Atkins, so Tejada is another draw to me personally to watch the team.
In other words, we’ll always be fans and we’ll always follow the team, but many of us don’t watch the team every day and anything that makes watching the Orioles more enjoyable will encourage us to do it more often and make more money for the Orioles. Short term deals give the Orioles great flexibility as to what to do in the future, so they don’t hurt the rebuilding process, and if we can flip these guys for prospects halfway through the season we can improve our farm system at the same time. It can be win win.
You missed Adam Eaton beating the Yankees like 12 to 5!
I go to games when the team is in town, I have the day off, and the weather is a little acceptable.
The stock market will never recover, our armies will never again be #1, and our children will drink filthy water for the rest of their lives - HST
by the fix is in on Jan 29, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Another couple of thoughts
I know some of you would be interested in a top 5 pick, but if you are a successful, profitable baseball team, you are able to coax quality later round picks to sign a bonus to play for you. I would argue this serves two purposes. One, obviously it helps us have depth at multiple positions in the minor leagues. Two, it provides many opportunities to trade for either better major league level players or more prospects.
We have been playing checkers against chess players for years. The high draft picks aren’t more valuable than having successful teams throughout an organization in which we can then deal in a position of strength.
A good cigar is like a beautiful chick with a great body who also knows the American League box scores. ~M*A*S*H, Klinger, "Bug-Out," 1976
Reddrummer9187 already mentioned it
but the key reason why we’ve brought in Millwood, Tejada and Atkins is to allow prospects to force their own way up.
I think this is less important for position players but very important for pitchers. Over the past 12 years the Orioles have brought up waves of pitchers. Out of the last wave only Bedard may be in baseball over the next year or two. Basically we’re bringing in players to protect the value ofour prospects instead of rushing them in. It also protects all the pitchers in our bullpen so we don’t end up abusing them and have to sign expensive free agents to replace them.
2) They can be traded later for prospects which are more valuable than draft picks unless an organization has an incredibly strong group running drafting and developing
High draft picks can help stock a farm system but they are no sure way of turning a team around: See the Pirates and the Royals

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