Community Prospect List #6
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 29, 2010 3:49 PM EST
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PrintWith 50% of the vote,
is awarded the title of the CC's #5 prospect!
List so far:
1. Brian Matusz
2. Josh Bell
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Zach Britton
5. Brandon Erbe
Candidates for #6 prospect:
Xavier Avery
Matt Hobgood
Cameron Coffey
Michael Ohlman
Mychal Givens
Poll is listed in alphabetical order.
What do you think of Keith Law ranking Zach Britton as the #25 prospect in the MLB? Ahead of both Arrieta and Bell.
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This is going to be a runaway
Because there’s Snyder, then there’s some relievers (lower ceiling), and a lot of raw dudes.
Law’s ranking is interesting, sort of. Britton has positioned himself to have a career (thus far) defining season that could propel him to top 15 status in most publications. I think Law’s ranking reflects that more than anything else.
Bedard says he doesn't care and thinks goals are pointless.
The more I think about it
The more I think that Erbe should be #7, after Snyder and Hobgood.
Also, looking at the prospect rankings and how high Matzek is and the total lack of Hobgood, I’m now forced to root against Matzek in the hope that Jordan proves out. Otherwise, I’m going to start feeling really badly about the 2009 draft again.
I’m also feeling more and more strongly that I hope the O’s take a position player at 1:3 this year.
They need to get some bats into the system
Law ranked Matzek #24! We couldve had that guy!
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 29, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I think that’s reaching on Matzek, but Law likes to rank the guys who haven’t pitched yet very highly.
Based on the trends that I’m seeing in the draft, it feels to me like a lot more quality arms go late than quality bats. Right now I’m favoring Colon still for our 2010 pick, but at least one mock I’ve seen doesn’t have Colon even making it to us. If not Colon, I’m leaning Zach Cox right now, but can also see a case for Castellanos. I like Taillon. But I want Colon and then a whole bunch of pitchers later on.
I still say we go with Ranaudo if he is there
He can make in impact quickly and could be ready to help right around the time we could be contending.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 29, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Snyder
I seem to run hot and cold on Brandon Snyder. His production seems to hinge on his BABIP, but I’ve learned that some guys can regularly put up higher than average BABIPs. So, his struggles in Norfolk can be explained by his low BABIP (321), and his incredible Bowie numbers can be attributed to an unsustainably high BABIP (403). His career minor league BABIP is 352. Earlier this off-season I didn’t think a BABIP that high could be sustained, but given his ability to consistently hit line drives, I believe it’s possible. So I guess he could be in the mold of Mark Grace. (I’m not 100% certain of all this, it’s just from what I’ve been able to pick up, so feel free to correct me if I’m mistaken.)
As far as Britton’s #25 ranking, I think it’s a combination of his K rate and his GB rate and being lefthanded. I think it’s a little aggressive, but he’s had to work for his kudos, as I don’t think many national types knew of him much last year. I think Law sees Arrieta as a reliever and doesn’t value relievers very highly.
Librarians are hiding something
Eh
As a top 100 prospect, Law sees Arrieta as one of the top 1% of all players in the minors. I wouldn’t get too concerned about it.
BABIP is generally higher in the minors due to the defense being worse.
Arrieta
Yeah, I’m not saying Arrieta is a bad prospect, I was speculating on Arrieta’s ranking in Law’s mind. I’m higher on Arrieta than Law, and I’d gues Calli and Sickels are.
Re: BABIP…I guess the question is if certain types of hitters can sustain higher BABIPs than others and then what are the chances that Snyder can hit that ceiling.
Librarians are hiding something
I dunno
Parsing Law’s rankings, particularly since I can’t see his comments on them, is a bit beyond me.
There is a lot of evidence that certain hitters can sustain high BABIP numbers, although mostly that comes from speedy types who beat out a lot of hits. With prospects, you also expect that they are getting better each year, so even as the defenses improve, Snyder should be improving with them. I’m clearly higher on Snyder than most people here and most evaluators.
Was between Mickolo and Snyder for me
Went with Mickolo because he’s already been successful in the majors. He pitched some really good innings for us last year and should be in our bullpen this year.
"Roberts is unconscious!!!!" - Jim Hunter, after Brian Roberts hits his second HR of the night. 9/21/09
BTW, Project Prospect just ranked Josh Bell....
…as the 16th best prospect in all of baseball and Matusz as the second-best pitcher.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/01/30/top-25-prospect-list
that's got to be crazy
I can’t imagine a guy who struggles against lefties like Bell does is the 16th best prospect in the game.
Librarians are hiding something
A lot of people think that PP tries to be different to get attention
Thats why they have Strasburg #4. Not my opinion but thats what others say.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jan 31, 2010 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
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