Orioles Payroll: How Much Room Is Left?

There was a lot of talk about the O's having a lot of payroll flexibility last month since they were committed for next year somewhere in the low $40M range, thanks to the expiration of some bad contracts.  Since then, we've added Kevin Millwood ($9M after $3M check from Rangers clears), Mike Gonzales ($6M), Garrett Atkins ($5M w/buyout included)

So how much payroll space do we have to work with?  Well, arbitration hearing are coming, so we have to guess at who is getting what.  And do we have enough space to hire a DH, given that the market is about $5-$7M a year for the top of the market guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui.

The two big arb cases coming up are Luke Scott ($2.4 in 2009) and Jeremy Guthrie ($650k in 09).  Luuuke is probably our biggest trade chip given our outfield logjam, and was worth $6.4M in WAR dollars ($WAR?) last year, most of it put up in one month.  He led the team in HR (25) by a pretty good margin, and was 3rd in walks, which are good things for an agent to bring up in a hearing, in only 500 PA.  Look for him to get around $4-5M next year.

Guts took a pay cut last year, thanks to some sleight of hand over signing bonus from previous teams, and has been a workhorse the last couple of years, worth $5M WAR dollars last year.  He was the opening day starter and the only real full time pitcher last year, racking up 200 IP, and leading the ragtag O's staff in just about every counting stat as a result.  Not a surprise considering he was the only pitcher to break the 125 IP barrier.  He should make around $4M, if for no other reason than to be paid more than Wigs. 

Math now.  The 11 players who know what they're getting this year, plus payouts and minus buyouts, comes to $53.65M.  Add the two arb cases and call it $62M.  The other 12 on the roster are all PA's biotechs next year, so all of them won't make much more than 12 x $0.4M ~ $5M, leaving $67M as an approximate commitment, which matches our last two years payroll.  However, the average over the last 5 years is more like $75M. 

So let's say we have $7-8M to play with.  Keep in mind that next year, the team is going to get pummeled with arb raises for guys like Adam Jones, Felix Pie, etc., and Nick Markakis gets a $3M raise every year remaining on his contract, so be wary of the multi year deal.  Let's take the whole "spend it on the draft" option out, since that only shows up in this payroll if a player is offered a MLB contract like Matusz was.  

Who do you get?