Goal for 2011: Bridge the Run Differential Gap
by Stacey on Oct 27, 2010 5:24 PM EDT
in Commentary & Analysis
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PrintIn this morning's Bird Droppings post, I asked the community what is the one barometer of success for the Orioles next year. What one thing can you say, "If X happens in 2011, it will have been a successful season." There were a lot of good responses, definitely check out the comments section to see them. As I was driving home today I began thinking about the fact that I didn't answer my own question and thought about what I might say. I finally came to a decision and began typing a comment in Bird Droppings, but when it started to get kind of long I remembered, "Hey, this is my blog. I'll just write an entire post about it."
So my answer is, "If the Orioles have a positive run differential in 2011, it will have been a successful season." There are obviously a number of things that could lead to that and still leave me feeling cold when the season is over, but it's the one result I can think of that probably means a number of things are going in the right direction. Good defense, good pitching, and good hitting will all contribute to this one measurable statistic.
During the Orioles current thirteen season losing streak, they have had a positive run differential three times. In 1998 and 1999, back when we all thought it was just a rough patch, the Orioles scored 32 and 36 more runs than they allowed respectively. And in 2004, the year of Raffy and Miggi and Javy, they scored 12 more than they allowed.
Since 2004, the Orioles have had a negative run differential every year, ranging from -71 all the way to a whopping -172. In case you think the team is getting better, that -172 was their differential in 2010. Ouch. For comparison's sake, in 2010 the Rays were +153, the Yankees +166, the Red Sox +74, and the Blue Jays +27. That's pretty brutal.
The good news for the 2010 Orioles (yes, there is good news) is that the 785 runs they allowed was the fewest since 2004 and just the third time they'd allowed less than 800 runs in a season since the losing started in 1998. The team ERA actually dropped from 5.15 to 4.59 from 2009 to 2010. The pitching has gotten better, and I fully anticipate that with the further development of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and the other young pitchers, it will continue to do so.
So the Orioles allowed less runs than they did in 2009 (although still way too many) and yet they had their largest negative run differential since 1988, which leads us to the bad news. The offense. We all know the O's offense was putrid in 2010. We watched enough games to know how miserable they were. They scored just 613 runs, 128 less than they did in 2009 and 246 less than the Yankees did in 2010.
The Orioles defense, infield especially, wasn't good in 2010. For much of the season they had a washed up shortstop playing third base, a mediocre third baseman playing second base, and Garrett Atkins playing first base. It was a mess, and it surely led to more runs allowed than should have been, but it's very hard to gauge just how many. And I think given the drop in runs scored over the past few years from bad to vomit worthy shows that the offense needs to be the main focus this off-season if any progress is going to be made.
It's not an easy task, not even close. For me personally, the season ended on such a high note that my mind glosses over the fact that this team, especially in comparison to the other AL East teams, is so far behind that it's almost incomprehensible. But all it takes is a look at the Runs Created by the 2010 Orioles to be reminded of just how brutally bad this team really is.
This team needs Matt Wieters to start hitting. It needs Adam Jones to be consistent. It needs Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold to prove they are major leaguers. It needs Luke Scott to keep on keeping on and it needs Nick Markakis to never play one bit worse than he did in 2010. It needs Brian Roberts to stay healthy and it needs a first baseman, a shortstop, and a third baseman who aren't completely useless in the field and at the plate. It needs two, probably three of its young pitchers to continue improving and work out long term.
This team also needs a general manager (and owner, I suppose) who is willing to throw down the cash to get the right players in here, and who is willing to part with some of our goods to get the right players traded to the Orioles. It doesn't need a guy who signs Garrett Atkins the first day possible and acts like bringing back Miguel Tejada is some kind of coup.
That's a lot of needs, for sure. I don't envy Andy MacPhail, because I don't know how to begin doing all of that. We've heard it a million times: grow the arms, buy the bats. The O's allowed less runs in 2010 than they have in years. It's time to start buying.
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Fun fact
In the 57 games after Buck arrived, from August 3 to October 3, the Orioles scored 234 runs, and allowed 212 runs, for a run differential of +22.
With those numbers projected across 162 games, you’d have a year where they scored 665 and allowed 603 for a run differential of +62. Not great, but certainly a positive development. I totally agree we need to get more bats, but it’s also nice to know that if you factor in the (debatable) “Buck Effect”, the current roster is capable of producing far better than 2010 record would indicate.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
do the "record math"
and we have a 100 win season. I don’t know how far you can take that effect thing, but I get the point.
FREE LAVELLE HAWKINS
I <3 Pat McAfee
by danielreese05 on Oct 27, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Stacey
Thanks for a well presented analysis. My only quibble, which comes from being an English major, is that “fewer” runs is far preferable to “less” runs.
I will not necessarily consider 2011 a success if we close the run differential by selling good young players for middle aged veterans. I would rather stick with our present roster than follow that route.
I will consider 2011 a success if our minor league teams start to do better, which would mean that we have prospects on the way. The most depressing aspect of our organization is that we don’t have any legitimate infield prospects who are anywhere close to major league ready. I don’t rate Bell as much of a prospect at third because of his strike out rate. Snyder has dropped out of the prospect category in my mind. I was encouraged by their AFL performances last year, but their good hitting did not persist into the regular season at Norfolk.
Because of the weakness in the minors, I would be on board for trading Luke Scott and Mike Gonzales for any reasonable prospects. Brian would not bring much because of his age and injury history. I would also be on board for trading Nick if we received 3 bona fide prospects in return. Ditto for Adam Jones. I would not trade any starting pitchers except for Guts, who is over 30. I don’t think that I would trade any of our young starters because we only have one blue chip starter in the minors, and we saw last fall how far we can ride good pitching.
So, I will be happy this time next year if we keep building the foundation for a good overall foundation. It is too early in my mind to care whether next year’s team finishes last or next to last.
seriously, dude?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
by Stacey on Oct 27, 2010 6:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I know you mean well
But do you have any idea how patronizing you around?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
by Stacey on Oct 27, 2010 7:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It is a note probably best suited to a private email, not a public comment
I’m siding with Stacey on this one.
"Walk not down that road, I cannot tell you where it goes. Ask me no more questions - some things you're not meant to know." - The Sword
Attention, people.
Please don’t email me whenever I make a grammatical error.
Thank you.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
What are we supposed to do, ignore it???
You’ll just keep being wrong!!!!!
"Walk not down that road, I cannot tell you where it goes. Ask me no more questions - some things you're not meant to know." - The Sword
You left off a period at the end of the sentence in your subject line.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
That was for you, hon
Our little in-joke. Because I knew you’d notice.
"Walk not down that road, I cannot tell you where it goes. Ask me no more questions - some things you're not meant to know." - The Sword
Yu DID it AGIN!
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
well, I guess I'll start by
saying that Josh Bell is still totally a prospect. Ignore completely whatever phantom images you saw at the major league level last year.
No offense, but....ENOUGH WITH THE FIELDER/GONZALEZ TRADE PROPOSALS.
Cliff Lee disagrees.
"Breathe if you hate Duke." - Brenda Frese
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 27, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Regarding minor league teams doing better – do you want them to have good records? I could care less about that as long as they are producing good major league talent. Is a winning year for an organization’s minor league teams really a good barometer for how the talent is?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Mine is incredibly simple
A winning season. I wanna witness one and remember it, damn it
"Breathe if you hate Duke." - Brenda Frese
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 27, 2010 7:06 PM EDT reply actions
Make sure you sit on Santa's lap and say please.
America was a farting country. - Ragtime, E.L. Doctorow
by Eat More Esskay on Oct 27, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm jewish.
:)
"Breathe if you hate Duke." - Brenda Frese
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Oct 27, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't mention that part to Santa.
America was a farting country. - Ragtime, E.L. Doctorow
by Eat More Esskay on Oct 27, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I tried but he gave me a pack of baseball cards instead.
To say that i was unhappy when i opened it up and found it was all Red Sox and Yankees would be an understatement.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
This is a really brutal paragraph.
This team needs Matt Wieters to start hitting. It needs Adam Jones to be consistent. It needs Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold to prove they are major leaguers. It needs Luke Scott to keep on keeping on and it needs Nick Markakis to never play one bit worse than he did in 2010. It needs Brian Roberts to stay healthy and it needs a first baseman, a shortstop, and a third baseman who aren’t completely useless in the field and at the plate. It needs two, probably three of its young pitchers to continue improving and work out long term.
Unless we do something drastic in the offseason, I don’t think we’re seeing .500 next year. The Buck days had me believing for a little while, but with a couple of weeks to stop and think about it… good grief. We’re screwed.
America was a farting country. - Ragtime, E.L. Doctorow
by Eat More Esskay on Oct 27, 2010 7:21 PM EDT reply actions
Don't doubt Orioles Magic
or as i should say Buck Magic
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
Offseason Plan.
- Reassign Terry Crowley
- ???
- World Series!
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Are you suggesting
that our baseball team is secretly being run by underpants gnomes? Because that is somewhat comforting, and I am not sure why.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
Pretty Simple I think
I would very much like to have our pitching staff actually show up for most of the season. Also would love to see us get a cleanup hitter along with a first baseman and a shortstop. For me to consider this season a success would be for our prospects to actually prove that they deserve to be in the Majors. If that does not happen then we are screwed.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
They scored just 613 runs, 128 less than they did in 2009 and 246 less than the Yankees did in 2010.
I just wanted to quote that because that is saying something. Almost 1 run less per game than the 2009 team. That is hard to believe.
Re: solving the problem:
SS: Cesar Izturis needs to not be in Baltimore in 2011. I know he is alleged to have the best glove in the game, but damn he sucks at hitting. Of course, the fear is AM will think ‘remember that walk off hit, and his range!’ The reality is that the SS market is pretty awful. This is why I like Nakajima, ‘cuz I don’t if he sucks or not.
3B is a challenge. I still have faith in Josh Bell and would advocate sending him to AAA and letting Wigginton play third for the first 3 months of the season. If Bell is tearing it up, you deal Wigginton. If Bell isn’t, the team has to find an option next off-season.
1B is also a challenge. The big target should be next off-season with the trinity of Pujols, Gonzalez and Fielder. I’m sure the Sox will get Gonzalez, and I’d bet the Cardinals retain Pujols. I think there is an outside chance of getting Fielder in free agency. But that doesn’t help 2011. I know it’s not a popular choice, but I’d advocate getting Carlos Pena for a few reasons: we don’t lose a draft pick and his terrible 2010 was in part due to bad luck (low BABIP), and I think the market might only be 1 year plus an option.
DH/LF. I believe in Pie. I’d like Reimold to platoon with Pie and Scott to demonstrate if he can be the DH in 2012.
So:
v right: Roberts, Pie, Markakis, Pena, Scott, Wieters, Jones, Wigginton, Nakajima
v left: Roberts, Markakis, Wieters, Scott, Reimold, Pena, Jones, Wigginton, Nakajima
Librarians are hiding something
why don't people want LUUUUUUKE to play 1B?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I'd be cool with Luke at 1B
and Adam Dunn at DH…
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Scoring more runs than we give up?
I agree that the problems are more on offense, but don’t necessarily agree with the solutions.
SS I agree that Izturis is gone and should stay that way. Nakajima is fine with me. Bartlett is fine and so is Threrot. Otherwise, we need a decent placeholder for a couple years til Machado, Narron, Schoop, etc. arrive. Maybe Orlando Cabrera?
3B I agree that the Bell experiment is not over. He has seen “the show” now, and hopefully knows what he has to improve to get there. Once again, we need a placeholder, and Wigginton may be the best bet. Juan Uribe wouldn’t be bad either. If Bell doesn’t ever develop, Narron, Machado or even Adams will.
1B is the real challenge. I have no faith whatsoever in what we have or have coming up through the farm. I would love to have Mahoney or Townsend come through, but I will be surprised if they do. Snyder is a non-starter. This is where MacPhail needs to earn his pay. Find a good young power hitting firstbaseman and trade for him. My best suggestions are not A.Gonzalez or Fielder. Too expensive. Pujols is a pipedream. I would try Alonzo from Cincy or Ka’aihue from Kansas City (both are blocked). Pay a pitcher for them or even a prospect, but get a good young power hitter.
DH I think we have one of the best in Luke Scott
LF Felix Pie simply isn’t good enough. He doesn’t hit .320, doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t steal bases. I don’t think he ever will. I would include him in a trade and either move Patterson or Angle to the 4th outfielder role. Give the left field spot to Reimold and coach him there. I think he can be a star.
2B I hope Roberts is healthy. If not, we need a plan “B” for leadoff hitter as well as 2B. They don’t need to be the same guy, but we do need a backup plan next year. Bartlett?
My signature approves of this message. Thank you.
No offense, but....ENOUGH WITH THE FIELDER/GONZALEZ TRADE PROPOSALS.
"Nick Markakis to never play one bit worse than he did in 2010."
Kakis had a Higher OPS then he did in 09’
2009 wasn't a good year for Nick Markakis
He completely forgot how to walk. Then in 2010 he sorta remembered how to walk but completely forgot how to hit for power.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
2008 was a great year for Nick with 99 BB
but everyone got on him for not having +100RBI, in 09 he did…so it seems like Nick can do no good.
by Sno Alchemist on Oct 28, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
No one on here is going to give Nick a hard time because of his RBI numbers.
"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude
by PBR me ASAP! on Oct 28, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I never got on him for that
Frankly anyone who would is a moron. Nick Markakis’ 2008 was freaking outstanding.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Can everyone go here and vote for Ripken?
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls?pCat=46&sCat=1677
I hate the thought of Brett Farve winning anything, ever.
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