Bill James Projects the 2011 Orioles Hitters

Ok so he projects all of the players on all of the teams, but who cares about those other 29 teams? In case you forgot, Bill James hilariously projected Matt Wieters to be the greatest hitter in history before his major league debut, and last year projected such gems as Nolan Reimold hitting 29 home runs and Josh Bell batting .288/.370/.455. He does tend to be optimistic (especially for young players), but I always enjoy looking at what he predicts anyway. So let's jump in. I've included James' 2010 predictions for each player for fun.

Matt Wieters - Matt just hasn't been able to live up to the otherworldly expectations Bill James has given him so far (he envisioned a rookie season for Wieters in which he hit .305/.402/.519). It's kind of sad seeing his good but not insanely good projection for 2011.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 148 547 29 20 61 .311/.381/.484
2010 Stats 130 446 22 11 47 .249/.319/.377
2011 Projection 130 482 25 16 54 .288/.361/.448


Luke Scott
-
Not a bad projection on Luke last season, and his 2011 numbers look pretty realistic.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 142 463
29
24 56
.259/.342/.486
2010 Stats 131 447
29
27
59
.284/.368/.535
2011 Projection 142 493
31
27
62
.266/.351/.501


Brian Roberts
-
Poor Brian and his 59 games in 2010. Here's to a healthier 2011.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 159 630 47 12 78 .281/.361/.422
2010 Stats 59 230 14 4 26 .278/.354/.391
2011 Projection 130 513 37 9 62 .279/.359/.411


Nick Markakis
-
Other than his power drop, James had Nick just about right on the money last year. He projects a modest HR increase and I hope he's right.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 161
630
47
21
72
.300/.374/.481
2010 Stats 160
629
45
12
73 .297/.370/.436
2011 Projection 161
629
47
17
74
.300/.377/.463


Adam Jones
-
Adam's 2011 projection is nearly identical to his 2010 projection, and neither are much out of line with Adam's 2010 numbers other than the lower walk total. Twenty-three walks. That's just disgusting.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 154
571
29
22
40
.284/.336/.468
2010 Stats 149
581
25
19
23
.284/.325/.442
2011 Projection 146
560
27
21
32
.288/.335/.466


Felix Pie
-
I just adore Felix Pie as a human. But I have no idea what to think of him as a baseball player.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 143
345
18
11
27
.272/.325/.443
2010 Stats 82
288
15
5
13
.274/.305/.413
2011 Projection 94
249
13
6
17
.281/.330/.430


Nolan Reimold -
As I mentioned above, James saw big things for Reimold in 2010 that didn't exactly pan out. He hasn't written him off yet, though, giving him a very positive 2011 projection. If Nolan can come back with that line in 2011 I'll be quite pleased.


G AB 2B HR BB BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection 152
538
34
29
68
.292/.352/.524
2010 Stats 39
116
5
3
12
.207/.282/.328
2011 Projection 144
526
28
22
66
.270/.352/.452


That's pretty much it for hitters, seeing as how the Orioles don't have a first baseman, shortstop, or third baseman lined up for 2011. They should get on that.

All stats taken from FanGraphs

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