Bill James Projects the 2011 Orioles Hitters

by Stacey on Nov 10, 2010 4:03 PM EST in Commentary & Analysis

Ok so he projects all of the players on all of the teams, but who cares about those other 29 teams? In case you forgot, Bill James hilariously projected Matt Wieters to be the greatest hitter in history before his major league debut, and last year projected such gems as Nolan Reimold hitting 29 home runs and Josh Bell batting .288/.370/.455. He does tend to be optimistic (especially for young players), but I always enjoy looking at what he predicts anyway. So let's jump in. I've included James' 2010 predictions for each player for fun.

Matt Wieters - Matt just hasn't been able to live up to the otherworldly expectations Bill James has given him so far (he envisioned a rookie season for Wieters in which he hit .305/.402/.519). It's kind of sad seeing his good but not insanely good projection for 2011.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	148	547	29	20	61	.311/.381/.484
2010 Stats	130	446	22	11	47	.249/.319/.377
2011 Projection	130	482	25	16	54	.288/.361/.448

Luke Scott - Not a bad projection on Luke last season, and his 2011 numbers look pretty realistic.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	142	463	29	24	56	.259/.342/.486
2010 Stats	131	447	29	27	59	.284/.368/.535
2011 Projection	142	493	31	27	62	.266/.351/.501

Brian Roberts - Poor Brian and his 59 games in 2010. Here's to a healthier 2011.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	159	630	47	12	78	.281/.361/.422
2010 Stats	59	230	14	4	26	.278/.354/.391
2011 Projection	130	513	37	9	62	.279/.359/.411

Nick Markakis - Other than his power drop, James had Nick just about right on the money last year. He projects a modest HR increase and I hope he's right.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	161	630	47	21	72	.300/.374/.481
2010 Stats	160	629	45	12	73	.297/.370/.436
2011 Projection	161	629	47	17	74	.300/.377/.463

Adam Jones - Adam's 2011 projection is nearly identical to his 2010 projection, and neither are much out of line with Adam's 2010 numbers other than the lower walk total. Twenty-three walks. That's just disgusting.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	154	571	29	22	40	.284/.336/.468
2010 Stats	149	581	25	19	23	.284/.325/.442
2011 Projection	146	560	27	21	32	.288/.335/.466

Felix Pie - I just adore Felix Pie as a human. But I have no idea what to think of him as a baseball player.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	143	345	18	11	27	.272/.325/.443
2010 Stats	82	288	15	5	13	.274/.305/.413
2011 Projection	94	249	13	6	17	.281/.330/.430

Nolan Reimold - As I mentioned above, James saw big things for Reimold in 2010 that didn't exactly pan out. He hasn't written him off yet, though, giving him a very positive 2011 projection. If Nolan can come back with that line in 2011 I'll be quite pleased.

	G	AB	2B	HR	BB	BA/OBP/SLG
2010 Projection	152	538	34	29	68	.292/.352/.524
2010 Stats	39	116	5	3	12	.207/.282/.328
2011 Projection	144	526	28	22	66	.270/.352/.452

That's pretty much it for hitters, seeing as how the Orioles don't have a first baseman, shortstop, or third baseman lined up for 2011. They should get on that.

All stats taken from FanGraphs

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Comments

I keep forgetting about Reimold

and how good he was. I don’t know at all what to think about him though.

Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
"smoke weed, eat yogurt"

by danielreese05 on Nov 10, 2010 4:09 PM EST reply actions

He also projects Josh Bell to hit 21 HRs next year...

and walk 39 times?

Wow, we are going to be awesome!

"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."

by tflach2 on Nov 10, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions

I don't see Carl Crawford on this list. What gives!?!

"Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man." ~ The Dude

by PBR me ASAP! on Nov 10, 2010 4:27 PM EST reply actions

What's Cliff Lee going to bat?

cxcxcxcxzzzzzzzzz

by Steve. on Nov 10, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

.340/.410/.590

We aren’t going to use a DH when Lee is on the mound and he is going to play SS when he isn’t pitching.

If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.

by Knubles and Bits on Nov 10, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

You know, when I think about Wieters

it is hard not to get discouraged. He can’t be Yadier Molina at the plate. HE CAN’T. If this is going to work, if “the plan” is actually gonna go anywhere, Wieters can’t just be a decent starter posting a 2.5 WAR. He has to be GOOD. Hopefully better than that, but…it just feels like he’s too important to play like this, if we’re gonna get anywhere.

"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008

Adam Jones is the tits.

by KenDixonFanClub on Nov 10, 2010 7:00 PM EST reply actions

STOP

you’re upsetting the children! the horror that Wieters isn’t actually that good is too much for me to handle right now.

Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
"smoke weed, eat yogurt"

by danielreese05 on Nov 10, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

on that note

I think we overblew it a little bit. he’s 23 years old, there’s more than plenty of time for him to develop. last year was his first pro-season, let’s see where he goes.

Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
"smoke weed, eat yogurt"

by danielreese05 on Nov 10, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't say I was giving up, mind you.

Just that it really needs to happen with hm. He’s got to be better. This year was discouraging, and I think there is a fear of admitting that.

"Might as well just win this game." - Adam Jones, 4/17/2008

Adam Jones is the tits.

by KenDixonFanClub on Nov 10, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

you know what worries me?

thinking that even in my lifetime, they won’t win the WS. or at least until i go to college…

Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
"smoke weed, eat yogurt"

by danielreese05 on Nov 10, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

It is the journey, not the destination, grasshopper.

But it’d sure be nice if the journey had a ticker-tape parade somewhere along the way.

America was a farting country. - Ragtime, E.L. Doctorow

by Eat More Esskay on Nov 10, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

I'd sure like to know

none of my favorite teams have won a championship in my lifetime.
Titans, O’s, Tennessee Vols, and Mizzou Tigers supporter for life and I’ve got nothing to show for it (except for a football title when I was 3…)

Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
"smoke weed, eat yogurt"

by danielreese05 on Nov 10, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

I was born approximately a month after the Redskins won their last Super Bowl.

They haven’t won it since, the Caps have never won the Stanley Cup, and you obviously know about the Orioles. I’m in my first year of college now and sports have just been miserable for me. But I keep putting myself through this because I still have that stupid thing called hope.

On the other hand, considering that I was born just after the Redskins won their last Super bowl, I must have cursed all my times.

by ahoque24 on Nov 11, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions

expectations

I’m really not sure why Oriole fans should be discouraged. Utlimately he hasn’t lived up to best baseball player on earth, but the problem from the outset has been the expectations. I think it was Jay Bruce who was the #1 prospect B.W. (before Wieters, of course), and his career has been uneven as well. These are young players. 4 years ago how thrilled would Oriole fans have been to see a 23 year old catcher show his patience and flash his power potential?

Librarians are hiding something

by dfa on Nov 10, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions