Pitch Type by Pitch Count: Brian Matusz
The outstanding Blue Jays blog, Ghostrunner on First, recently did a post examining some of the Jays' pitchers by which pitch they threw in different counts. It was a great read and got me wondering the same thing about the Orioles in 2010. I decided to focus first on Brian Matusz, because he's awesome.

FF: Four-Seam Fastball; FT: Two-Seam Fastball; CU: Curveball; CH: Change-Up; SL: Slider
As you can see, Matusz loves his four-seam fastball. In fact, he threw it 42.6% of the time in 2010. He threw his second most common pitch, his change-up, about half as often as the four-seamer (21.2%). While the four-seam FB was his most used pitch, up until Matusz reached a three-ball count, the batter had a good chance of seeing any of four pitches.
Matusz's change-up had a whiff rate of 17.3%, well above the MLB average of 12.13%. He dialed up its usage in two-strike counts, where he threw it 224 times with a whiff rate of 19.6%. It's really just a good idea to not let Brian Matusz get two strikes against you, as batters hit just .161/.231/.495 in that situation. As you might remember from watching him, Matusz struggled with walks for a decent chunk of the season, and when he found himself in a three-ball count, batters had a .563 OBP against him (with a whopping 63 BBs in 144 PAs). He cleaned that stat up in the last two months of the season, thankfully, allowing just 16 BBs over his final 62 innings pitched.
Click through to see how Matusz pitched specifically to lefties and righties.

For right-handed batters, Brian Matusz used his change-up to complement his four-seamer. He threw the change-up to righties 24.7% of the time, and when the count was 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2 he used it with close to the same frequency as he did the four-seam fastball. That can't be easy on a batter, especially when he threw it for a strike 70% of the time with two strikes.

Brian Matusz threw 626 pitches to left-handed batters in 2010, and 404 of them were fastballs (337 four-seamers, 67 two-seamers). That's almost 65% total. He filled out his lefty repertoire with 115 curveballs (18.4%), 54 sliders (8.6%), and 53 change-ups (8.5%). I love his two-strike count selection, where a batter has a reasonable chance of seeing a fastball, curveball, change-up, or slider. Matusz was even more reliant on his fastball in three strike counts against lefties than he was against righties, though he was also had a much lower walk rate to lefties (6.7% to lefties vs 8.7% to righties).
It's hard to argue with anything about Brian's approach to lefties. They hit just .218/.288/.293 against him in 2010. He allowed only five extra base hits and racked up a K/BB of 4.64.
All pitch data and statistics are from Texas Leaguers and Baseball Reference.
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First reaction
Brian doesn’t trust his offspeed stuff at all 3-0. That’s interesting, considering that we’d heard his offspeed stuff >>> his fastball, and that he’s supposedly a brainy sort of pitcher. Then again, I suppose a high amount of the time hitter’s have the red light 3-0, so why bother with anything except a “get-me-over” pitch? Still, note how the fastball use spikes when he’s behind on lefties. That’s interesting.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I was thinking about it
And there is obviously no way to know this, and it wouldn’t be all the time, but if he’s going to a three ball, it could be that his off-speed stuff isn’t working that night and that’s how the got there in the first place.
Also, I meant to put this in the article but forgot, but it’s worth noting that he had only six 3-0 and six 3-1 counts against lefties, so even though he only threw fastballs, it only constitutes 12 pitches. Contrast that to righties where he had 29 3-0 counts in which he threw 1 change-up and 52 3-1 counts in which he threw 7 change-ups. There’s no reason to think his pitch selection would change with a bigger sample size, but you never know. I hope we don’t find out.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
oh, of course
sample sizes!
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I should go back and add that in. I had it in my notes.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
all pitchers do this
for instance, over the past 3 seasons (I went back that far to get a decent sample size), Cliff Lee has thrown some type of fastball 95% of the time on a 3-0 count. Tim Lincecum this season threw a four-seamer or two-seamer 96% of the time. Shaun Marcum normally throws a changeup over 25% of the time, and it’s by far his best pitch, but this year he didn’t throw a single changeup on a 3-0 count. you don’t see a lot of breaking pitches on 3-0 counts from anyone….
Isn't that pretty universal?
My guess would be almost every pitcher is going to have a similar spike in FB% at 3-0
a Matusz changeup vs RHP on 1-2 is a nasty beast
just thinking about it has me pining for ST.
Or in Inter-League play
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 1, 2010 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
One thing to keep in mind
is that pitch data is really inconsistent. 4 seamers and 2 seamers get confused constantly as do curveballs and sliders.
His changeup approach is consistent with the classic wisdom on the pitch, which is that you don’t throw it to arm side hitters. That’s rapidly changing though and I’m sure as the league gets used to him he’ll have to start throwing it to lefties more. I personally love seeing changeups to arm side hitters and his is particularly nasty, so I’m sure that even when lefties make an adjustment to his approach he’ll have no problem staying one step ahead.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I was going to ask this
The info is pretty awesome (thanks Stacey!). I just wonder how accurate the data is.
I look forward to a 3/0 slider just to eff with CC tho.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Dec 2, 2010 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
lol
that’d be funny if his first 3-0 count of 2011 he throws a curve.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8

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