Just say no to more starting pitching.
by Stacey on Dec 14, 2010 9:53 AM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
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PrintWe keep hearing about the Orioles' desire to add another starting pitcher to the rotation in 2011. Am I the only one scratching my head over this?
The Orioles already have on their big league roster Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Tillman. It is expected that at some point in 2011 Zach Britton will be ready to make his major league debut. That's one proven veteran, one blossoming star, one solid middle-to-back end of the rotation guy, and two promising youngsters. If the Orioles sign Carl Pavano or trade for Joe Blanton or something like that, which of these guys do you bump back down to AAA? And what good will it ultimately do the Orioles?
Even if there were an argument for adding another "proven" starting pitcher, with both the Rangers and Yankees missing out on Cliff Lee, the price on viable starting pitchers has probably just gone through the roof. What it would cost the Orioles in money, draft picks, and prospects has to be taken into consideration. But also to be taken into consideration is the development time it would cost whichever pitcher has to start the season in AAA so that this veteran innings eater can "stabilize" the rotation.
Tillman has nothing left to prove in AAA. If he can have sustained success in the majors is still to be seen, but sending him back to Norfolk won't help him. I personally questioned Arrieta's readiness at the time of his major league promotion, but after a somewhat disastrous start to his major league career, Arrieta began to progress nicely at the end of last season. Do either of these fellows belong in the minors? I don't think so. And Bergesen, who spent his fair share of time on the Baltimore-Norfolk Express in 2010, has shown that he is who he is. He will not benefit from time in AAA either.
(Obviously Guthrie and Matusz aren't going anywhere)
The Orioles have on their 40-man roster Rick VandenHurk, who made 22 starts at AAA last year. They have Troy Patton, who made 25, and Brandon Erbe, who made 15. They also have Jason Berken who spent 2010 in the bullpen but who made 24 major league starts in 2009. Any of those players can fill in should one of the O's starters go down with injury. Will they be fantastic? Probably not. But they won't impede the progression of any of the talented youngsters on the staff.
The Orioles have spent the off-season so far preparing for the short-term future, and I'm fine with that. As someone who watches every single game I appreciate J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds. But when it comes to pitching they need to look past the benefits of a single year, because the young pitching will be what takes this team into contention or what keeps them in the basement. The Orioles need to give them every opportunity to improve, and they need to expose these pitchers to the best competition so they can weed out any that won't be able to contribute to the O's long term success.
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If all the Orioles do from here on out
is add an innings-eater, some relief help, and a short term 1Bman, then I’ll be a little bit ticked off. Those are the kinds of moves that an 85 win team should be making, not a 65 win team. Adding veteran starting pitching does not make sense for this team, bottom line.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
Disagree.
Adding veteran pitching is what we should do, not to add finishing touches to a contending team, but to protect us from having to over-expose the young arms from overwork. We don’t want to open Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, or Britton to possible injury or developmental stagnation from having a weak and tired bullpen due to having to pick up waay too many innings too quickly.
That exact scenario has been a repeated over and over the last decade plus. Not that we had any Hall of Famers in the staff, but at minimum, it suppresses your statitsical value and hence future options later.
I don't know what "supresses your statistical value" means
But how would their development stagnate from a weak and tired bullpen? What?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Yeah, I also have no idea what you just said
not that the point isn’t valid – I just don’t have any idea what your point was.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I don't think his point is hard to understand
he’s saying that if the bullpen is weak and overused, the manager might be tempted to ramp up his young pitchers’ innings too quickly. I don’t necessarily agree because MacPhail and Showalter seem to be pretty reasonable guys when it comes to limiting young starters’ innings (not to mention we go with a 7 man bullpen anyway, so there’s no reason it should be tired).
I honestly don’t see the problem with adding a veteran starting pitcher though. there’s nothing preventing us from blooding the young starters in the bullpen (don’t you remember when that used to be the norm, in the Earl Weaver days?). Neftali Feliz started in the pen, David Price started in the pen, Aroldis Chapman started in the pen… and these guys were better, more complete prospects than the likes of Britton and Tillman are right now.
i should add
I don’t remember the Earl Weaver days myself because I wasn’t born back then. so I guess I mean “remember” in a figurative sense…
EXACTLY
I might add that Chamberlain, Hughes, Lester too started in the pen. What’s missing here to me is that, there’s a philosophical teaching moment here that shouldn’t be undervalued. When you start a kid in the bullpen, you are giving them a chance to prove that they can pitch in the majors, and, earn or win the rotation job.
If we added a veteran, and all goes right, why couldn’t we just trade that guy 2-3 months after the season starts? As opposed to, starting with 5 young arms in there, and realizing that the short starts are taxing everyone so we need to add a starting pitcher in midseason, which is pretty much next to impossible.
Not if the pitcher you add is in your minor league system
Then it’s quite easy.
As for your examples:
Jon Lester has appeared in 124 major league games. 123 of them have been starts.
Joba was jerked around from the moment he was brought to the majors and currently sucks.
Phil Hughes only got moved to the bullpen after failing in the rotation. He did well in the bullpen so they moved him back to the rotation where he was quite pedestrian.
If you’re going to use examples, please make sure they are accurate.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Jeez.
You’re pretty snarky. I’m just raising a counterpoint to your idea. And, to be frank, it’s not really that controversial at that. All I am saying is to play the conservative high percentage move, rather than roll the dice. If every start Tillman had last year was, say, 5 innings, I’d say for for it. But it just wasn’t.
I just feel like I’ve seen this same story play out over and over the last 13 or so years.
Well, I am pretty snarky in general
And I don’t mean to sound harsh or anything, but you can’t just name three pitchers without actually knowing if it’s true. If you want use that as your argument and choose to back it up with facts, back it up with actual facts, not things that you assume to be true or things that can be proven wrong with one quick trip to Baseball Reference.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Well, I am at work so I can't really get REALLY into this debate...
..so my problem was that I didn’t check my facts. I apologize for that. Thanks for ripping into me for not doing so. I just don’t want to lose my job because of a baseball talk.
;)
Well I say this sincerely and I hope in a way that doesn't sound mean
But if you don’t have time to make sure your facts are right, you shouldn’t say them.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I just couldn't resist.
I’ve watched Orioles baseball for 30+ years and I feel like I’ve heard this broken record before.
You're welcome to disagree
I enjoy a good discussion, just not a discussion with incorrect facts thrown in with the expectation that we should take them at face value. That’s why I don’t like politics.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
just stating on record
that I disagree with this.
People comment with loose/mistaken facts on this site ALL THE TIME. And then someone sets them straight. That’s part and parcel of contributing to a well-informed baseball blog.
Not everyone has the time to look up everything they post about and back it up, which is why we shouldn’t be defensive if someone checks our work.
That said, it’s possible to correct someone’s facts without a reprimand.
basemonkey, I’d hope you don’t stop commenting just because of this exchange.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
yeah well
I think that ff you don’t know the facts for certain, don’t say them. He could have made his argument without putting those names out there. And if he (or anyone) chooses to say something that then gets disproven, then so be it. I get called snarky for saying something isn’t true when it isn’t true? Whatever, dude. Don’t make shit up, then.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
we just disagree
I think that ff you don’t know the facts for certain, don’t say them.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people stating what they believe to be true. There’s a pretty big gulf between that and “making shit up”.
You assert someone shouldn’t say anything unless they’ve researched it at B-R first. I’m saying I think it’s just fine for someone to say something based on their general knowledge/recollection. (For example, I had the same perception of Lester starting in the ’pen… not sure why).
I don’t know a place where I could go right now to find “major league starters who began their careers with significant time in the ’pen.” So if I was making an argument based on my perceptions, I’d probably just try to think of a few guys who fit that description. All three of the names above are starters who spent some time in the ‘pen, and who had success at one point or another, so they’re legitimate names to throw out. And it’s also completely legitimate for someone else (you, in this case) to say, “no, here’s why that’s a bad example.”
But you don’t have to crucify someone when you point out their mistakes. And I fervently disagree that someone should say nothing instead of saying something that they’re vague on. The overall point of the board is to enlighten us all, and by having the discussion above, anyone who reads it is armed with better facts for the future.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
That's not what I said
I know plenty of things that I don’t have to look up on B-R.com. But if I don’t know something, I don’t say it. I don’t understand why that’s so difficult. I think that his argument was just as strong without using specific names, but using specific names that are incorrect weakens it.
I’m not going to apologize for wanting people to be educated before they open their mouths.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
This is the whole point
But if I don’t know something, I don’t say it.
Lots of people THINK they know something until they say it and someone points out they’re wrong.
To have a standard where nobody even comments on a blog unless they are 100% absolutely sure about their facts is a pretty high standard. One that would drive down traffic here considerably.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Earlier today
Before commenting with 7 season WHIPs on Blanton and Guthrie in Open Thread, I checked B-R twice before posting it, dreading a ripping. Then I noticed that I had failed to account for the fact that Guthrie’s first 3 ‘seasons’ had so few games, and dreaded it anyway. I dig facts (tho command few of them) and love reading CC, but I wondered if that was healthy.
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
I don't see what's wrong with that.
If you’d stopped your comment with “Joe Blanton isn’t quite as good as Guthrie” or however you said it, that’d be a good comment. But once you decide to put in specifics, the specifics should be correct. That’s all.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
oh, and Jon Lester spent one game in the pen
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
David Price wasnt hurt by it
I think a limited session in the pen isn’t a terrible idea. But you need good communication about how long it will be.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 14, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
Johan Santana
is the classic recent example, though most thought that they left him in the pen too long.
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Dec 14, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly
My personal belief is that talent wins out in the end. Unless you’re just yanking them around forever, that could be detrimental.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 14, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
MOD FIGHT!
Sorry, I got nuthin’ to add.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
by duck on Dec 14, 2010 1:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not sure...
I’m an old vet from Orioles Hangout, other Os boards, Sickel’s site, milb, mlbtraderumors, and etc…Had a job with MILB back in the day so that allowed me a lot of time on these things. I don’t post on Camden Chat much nowadays though.
Generally speaking, from those who know me, I am pretty even-keeled and I try to be as objective as possible. I can’t say that I am especially encouraged that I got smacked down by the mod/writer here for posting offhand knowledge impulsively which was a mistake. True, I was wrong in my facts by not checking them, and I freely own up to that. Then again, I’m not a writer who is publishing an article which requires to be scorned as bad journalistic integrity. It’s a comment board. The spirit of discussion is to discuss, not adhere to someone’s self-righteous notion of the right way to speak. Discourse is messy, organic, and tense. People speak the way they speak. That’s the whole point.
I will continue reading. I wish you well. Thanks anyways.
Not sure I'm inclined to return...
I’m an old vet from Orioles Hangout, other Os boards, Sickel’s site, milb, mlbtraderumors, and etc…Had a job with MILB back in the day so that allowed me a lot of time on these things. I don’t post on Camden Chat much nowadays though.
Generally speaking, from those who know me, I am pretty even-keeled and I try to be as objective as possible. I can’t say that I am especially encouraged that I got smacked down by the mod/writer here for posting offhand knowledge impulsively which was a mistake. True, I was wrong in my facts by not checking them, and I freely own up to that. Then again, I’m not a writer who is publishing an article which requires to be scorned as bad journalistic integrity. It’s a comment board. The spirit of discussion is to discuss, not adhere to someone’s self-righteous notion of the right way to speak. Discourse is messy, organic, and tense. People speak the way they speak. That’s the whole point.
I will continue reading. I wish you well. Thanks anyways.
it's the internet.
These kinds of things happen, and they are usually blown out of proportion because the internet gives a person no voice, and therefore something can easily be perceived as edgy, rude, or snarky when it’s not meant to be.
Best thing to do is just to let it go. But I suppose if it’s that big of a deal that you need to leave, then by all means (see, that totally sounds antagonizing, but I really don’t mean it to be, I just mean that it’s your prerogative to leave if you choose).
Actually, I thought Stacey's original response was pretty nice.
She even said please check your facts. And there are no personal attacks or even much snark. You made a factual error, she politely posted the correct facts, and asked nicely that you check your facts. Maybe it’s a bit snarky to ask you to check your facts, but it wasn’t done in a mean way. If you want to see snark and “smacking down”, see her responses to Jen Royale in other threads.
Spewing negativity.
I did think I was being kind of nice
But my guard went up when I was told, “Jeez, you’re snarky.”
Maybe I’m just totally clueless but I just don’t get what is so wrong with expecting people not to post things that they don’t know are true.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Also
You’re an old vet from OH? Some of the posters there are vicious compared to me, and they’d be the first to point out erroneous facts.
But whatever. I hope you’ll stick around. I wasn’t trying to be a bitch.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
They're also really good at making stuff up
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
by duck on Dec 14, 2010 5:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No place for facts over there!
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
I hope you stay
Not that I have much to add, but I definitely recognize your handle and have enjoyed reading your posts. I used to be on OH even before their rivals days, but there are just too many ‘characters’ over there.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Ohh yes.
A lot of shenanigans there. I used to be a founding mod at Scout’s Oriole board. I have a lot of random experience going to minorleague games, playing baseball through college, and even some low level scouting as an adult. Since a kid in the Earl Weaver days. I am not going to tout being an expert over anyone. It’s not my style. I think everyone’s view is worthy of thought. Though like many of us who have seen the 70s Orioles in these parts, we feel like we’ve seen a first-rate franchise with excellent management and development firsthand, so for better or worse, a lot of our views might come from that experience. I always wonder about the MD kids today who are too young to remember the days when the Os were a regional sensation. They weren’t just good. They were what was good about baseball.
I'm not even saying I don't believe in the young guys...
I do. I especially like Britton. But the fact of the matter is, that even a rookie ROY season is going to be an okay season by normal majorleague standards. I love Matusz’s future and think he’s for real. As far as Tillman, Arrieta, and Bergesen they are all promising, but to be totally frank, they could also be completely out of baseball in about 6 or so years.
Agree on that last part
But how does it help the team to bring in a guy for one year to “eat innings” either way?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Look...
I don’t want to see the Os bring in another Millwood either. Nothing would annoy me more than sitting through another round of those types of games, but if it results in ruining a 35 yr old arm by forcing him to “take one for e the team” in a abd start and saving the bullpen, to save it for Matusz’ starts, then so be it.
In a best case scenario, we start with a vet SP and one of our young promising guys like Tillman starts to shine in mop-up duty and spot starts to force the issue. We end up trading that vet for useful pieces by the break, and Tillman gets 100+ IP of promsing work.
Otherwise, if those young guys can’t pitch in mop-up duty or take advantage of spot starts, would they actually fare better or deserve a bigger role as a regular no-choice every 5th day guy?
Because if you sign a veteran
and you can’t trade him, he stays in the rotation. That’s the thing about veterans. Teams don’t just give them the heave ho for younger players who are shining in AAA.
No pitcher the Orioles could sign will help them get to the playoffs next year or ever. The young guys already here might in the future, so you gotta give them the chance.
Jeremy Guthrie is the only veteran innings eater we need.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
not to mention...
bergesen will be entering his 3rd full season, matusz his second w/ significant experience in another season. while not exactly cagey vets, these guys aren’t babes in the woods, either.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
But we can all agree that Arrieta will continue to be a babe.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 14, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
so why did you want us to sign Bedard last year?
and you can’t trade him, he stays in the rotation. That’s the thing about veterans. Teams don’t just give them the heave ho for younger players who are shining in AAA.
No pitcher the Orioles could sign will help them get to the playoffs next year or ever. The young guys already here might in the future, so you gotta give them the chance.
A pitcher coming off surgery who was blocking the young kids? And not even a durable one, I might add?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Because Bedard wasn't going to be ready to start the season
He ended up not pitching at all, but you know, we couldn’t have known that. I was of the belief that he’d be ready mid-season which is generally when we need another pitcher, not to start things off. Plus Bedard was 30 last year and has shown to be of quite above average talent when healthy, so giving him a chance to recover in Baltimore might lend to him staying on to help the team into contention.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
the real reason was because he is
BUH DARD
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I think we could easily have traded Millwood
but the young guys weren’t doing very well at that point. Tillman was either in the minors or sporting a 5.50 ERA, Bergesen wasn’t doing so good, Matusz was looking OK but not great… and anyway, who would have taken his spot in the rotation? Berken and Hernandez were doing well as relievers at that point, Simon was also in the pen, Hendrickson would have served the same purpose (veteran stopgap) but considerably worse at eating innings…
if we can trade Steve Trachsel to the Cubs for 2 C/level prospects, I’m sure we could have traded Millwood for something if we’d really wanted to.
for something...
perhaps.
please recall that traksy was having an unsustainably successful campaignfor the first few months of the season that still looked decent on paper when he was dealt. the same cannot be said for the mentor.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
though...
wow. actually, their splits look comparable. millwood going on the dl in july certainly didn’t help his value.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
If I recall correctly
and I’d have to go back and look at our archives, but I think when he went on the DL that was pretty much the end of the trade talk. So you’re right, we might have gotten something Trashman worthy if that hadn’t happened.
I’ll never forget you, Rocky Cherry!
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Haha...Millwood was awful at the deadline though
Was Trachsel worse? (I’ve really tried to scratch any memories of guys like Trachsel and such even pitching here)
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 8:47 AM EST up reply actions
actually traschel was very good at the deadline
he started off the season a bit bumpy but then went a very nice streak of start up until the deadline.
Spewing negativity.
Why would you use Joba as an example? He sucks.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Maybe that's why!
It’s nice to remember that he sucks.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 14, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Agree completely
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 14, 2010 10:07 AM EST reply actions
Based on seeing the 70s Orioles...
..I tend to be of the school of thought that you force your kids to earn their way in, and create a climate of competition that is fierce. A lot of the great Oriole pitchers in the franchise’s history were brought up through long relief, waiting for an opportunity.
We also have to remember the extremely high likelihood that every season features at least one significant injury of some sort to an arm in the rotation. If we were to track this, depending on what you mean by “significant”, you could argue that the Orioles have not had an rotation injury-free season in, say, 20 or so years. It’s not to say that the Os are snakebit. It’s just the way pitching is.
So, it’s highly likely that even if we start the season with 7 deep in rotation arms, we might still end up short by September. The fact of the matter is that we don’t have a relable proven workhorse beyond Guthrie.
I mentioned this in the other thread
and I feel like I’m a broken record: if you bring in a veteran, then the veteran is plan A and the kids are plan B in the event the veteran gets hurt. The Orioles are rebuilding and need to get the kids major league experience. Bringing in more starting pitching will not help that cause, it will not help anything.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
Yes, I was about to add that when you replied
The injury insurance should be below the young starters on the depth chart, not above.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I feel like this is theoretically true...
…on paper, but if the veteran you add is going to be slotted behind un-established rookies, then is that vet even worth adding? Wouldn’t that be pitchers like, say, Josh Towers who might be pining for another shot at a majorleague slot, not veterans who actually have track record to hold down a roster spot?
All I am saying is that if we go into Opening Day with that kind of set of options, it is next to impossible to add pitching after the season started. It just doesn’t work that direction. If you have too much pitching, you can always swap out parts, release players, and trade talent away. The other way around is just a lack of options that cannot be addressed, which would force us to just sit and watch the innings workload tick off on Matusz, hoping it won’t hurt him in the longrun (say, a la Zambrano).
I'm not talking about veterans below them on the depth chart
I’m talking about minor league guys, AAA guys. Like VandenHurk. And I don’t think it’s worth adding any veteran that isn’t young enough and good enough to help the Orioles for years. Cliff Lee I would have been happy to send Tillman or Bergesen back to AAA for. Joe Blanton? What does that do for the team?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Well for whatever it's worth...
…right now I don’t think there’s anything close to a perfect fit for the Os regardless. And, I don’t think there is a decent trade piece either.
I agree with you that the Orioles young pitching picture is more and more at a crossroads, and these questions of going all-in, must be addressed at some point. I guess I am just in the school of thought that the kids need to force the issue. I would love it that Matusz breaksout, Tillman shows more legit consistency, Arritta improves, etc..But I can’t say that we are there yet. TO my memory, it just felt like TIllman and to a lesser extent Bergie and Arritta were still susceptible to a 3 IP start here and there. You can’t give pitchers who do that the keys to the car yet.
What comes to mind is the role Ted Lilly played with the young staff of Aces in OAK. Or, Doug Davis who ate a ton of innings for the Brewers while their young guys developed in the major league staff. We need some of that.
so basically,
you want us to trade for Adam Eaton? :P
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I think the young pitchers on the O's have earned their way
by pitching their way through the minors and having some success last season. If you really had a number of young, talented pitchers on the team, then yes, let them compete. But what is the point of having Tillman or Arrieta compete with Joe Blanton? He’s nobody to the future of the Orioles.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Maybe I am just scarred by...
…too many Matt Riley-esque kids who naturally come up feeling entitled to a big league roster slot because they feel like they paid their dues in the minors.
The better pitchers and players tend to be the guys who continue to work hard after reaching the majors, not the ones who feel like the majors are the reward and their road is over. The ones who become All-Stars are generally very hard-workers on top of being vastly gifted and lucky.
Why on earth would you think any of the Orioles starters are like that?
And how can they continue to work hard after reaching the majors if you don’t let them stay there?
I mean no offense, but you really aren’t making much sense to me.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I don't mean to suggest any of these guys are like Riley...
…that said, what we hear publically while they are players, is one thing. What the reality is is another. There is a real bubble that is created around the clubhouse that is necessary. TO assume that all of these kids are anything but kids and not the uber-mature wholesome boys they are portrayed as in the media is a little naive. Even Riley when he was a bonus baby was portrayed in a similar way. He only started getting wacky and ridiculous to us once he started doing things like not resting before starts and the administration decided to stop protecting him.
well, they are all about 5 years or more older than Riley was when he reached the big leagues
so it would be a little presumptuous to assume they aren’t more mature than an 18 year old notorious hothead.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
Again...
I am not saying these kids are Riley. So let’s stop that. I regret even uttering his name now.
All I am saying is that, the kids are mature good promising guys. I believe. I just think we need to put them in a position to succeed, not give them the keys to the business and tell them to take over just yet. We can’t just hope they become our version of the A’s current young staff and ignore the results thus far.
I don't think there's any reason to accuse Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, or Bergesen
of thinking the majors are the goal and that they have stopped working hard now that they are here.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
Jeff Francis
I’d love to think all the young pitching will coalesce, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with signing a free agent starter for a couple million dollars. Jeff Francis struggled as he came back from surgery to be sure, but he also represents a fair amount of upside. Signing a guy like him makes a lot of sense because it won’t force the Orioles to promote someone who isn’t ready (like they did with Josh Bell last year), and if one young pitcher is getting taken to the woodshed over the first two months of the season, it would be nice to have some guy who I don’t necessarily care about. Betting on all the young pitching is a pretty risky bet, and I am not sure how much I want to see VandenHurk every fifth day next year.
As long as the pitcher doesn’t cost a draft pick (i.e., Carl Pavano) or a lot of money (i.e., Rich Harden) or has limited upside (i.e., Mentor), than I would be all for it.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Just say no to Blanton and Pavano
Blanton stinks in the NL and he would have to transition to the AL. Recipe for disaster. Pavano is injury-prone and gets crushed by lefties. Not a good combo for the yard.
The only difference between this year’s staff and last years is Milwood. So is anyone really upset if you stand pat instead of paying way too much for a Milwood replacement?
Alec: Chris, did you really buy a $1400 toilet?
Chris: Yeah, it's great. It's Japanese and has those little warm water jets that clean the undercarriage.
Eric: Chris, it's a toilet, you shit in it.
Meh
You can never have too much pitching. There is still plenty of reason to believe that Bergy isn’t a major league starter, Erbe is out probably for the year after surgery, and neither Arrieta nor Tillman have pitched a single full year in the majors. On top of this, Guthrie is potential trade bait if he’s pitching well at the deadline once again. If we can add a starter either like a Blanton in a salary dump from the Phillies or someone cheap on a one year deal why not do it? What harm can this depth do us? At worst, it frees us to possibly trade a starter to a contender or in a deal for an elite player. The Red Sox get it; they are looking at Blanton despite having a rotation of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey and Dice-K already with Wakefield waiting in the wings. The Red Sox are smart. We could do far worse than to imitate them.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
You don't think that the $21M Joe Blanton is owed over the next two years could be better spent?
That’s a crapload of money.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
the Phillies would eat part of it
I mean, what would be the point of keeping him for them? Kyle Kendrick is just as “good” as a 5th starter, and being paid considerably less. I think they’d eat about half the salary and expect nothing of value in return.
Well, I don't think he'd cost us $21 million
I think the Phillies will have to pick up a bunch of that before they can trade him anywhere, and/or toss in a good prospect or two. If we can get Blanton from the Phillies along with someone like Jarred Cosart with the Phillies picking up $5M or so, I think that’s a good deal for us, particularly since I think we can turn around and flip Blanton again at the deadline or in the offseason.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I think that if you start talking about other pieces coming back in a trade along with him
Then maybe it’s worth considering, depending on the return. But that doesn’t appear to be the O’s motive in any of these things. They’ve been talking about another starting pitcher for awhile, and Blanton has just been a name created because of the Lee signing.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Well, you know me...
…I’ll never underestimate the O’s ability to be dumb. But if there is a good deal available to add a starter, I see no reason to pass it up. Starters get hurt, are ineffective, and if those things don’t happen are great bait at the deadline. Worse things could happen than our having too many starters.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
It just seems a shame for one of the guys to stay in AAA
while someone who has no impact on the future hangs around on the O’s.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Well, Britton belongs in AAA to start the year...
…and Bergy may always be a guy who should shuttle between AAA and the fifth starter spot. As for Tillman, if you recall I made the argument that he may need time in the ML bullpen until he learns to get major league hitters out with his fastball. So, if he still hasn’t mastered that, having him take the David Hernandez role for a while isn’t the worst idea. And Arrieta to me is a huge question mark, someone whose future may still be in the bullpen long term or who may need more time in AAA working on his secondary pitches.
And like I said, this is all best case scenario stuff anyways. Say Arrieta or Matusz gets hurt. So Vanden Hurk, a famously injury prone guy, is now our depth? And when he goes down? Berken isn’t going to start anymore, I suspect, and while I think Patton should remain a starter the club seems to think of him as a future lefty specialist.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Agree on Britton
I don’t know about Bergy. He’s had two years in the big leagues and has, I think, pretty adequately shown who he is. Even when he getting poorly last year (and as a result being sent back to Norfolk over and over), his stats that mattered showed that he was pitching better than the results. I wrote about it (with a little help from you, I believe) but am too lazy to go find the link right now.
I was looking at this pretty much from the perspective of extra pitchers putting Tillman in the minors, where he does not need to be. I believe that’s where the Orioles would send him. I don’t think they’d put him in the pen. Maybe they’d surprise me, I don’t know.
Arrieta really came on strong over his final six or so weeks (I’m trying to look up his splits on FanGraphs but the page isn’t loading for me), and yes, his future might be in the bullpen, but we don’t know that, and I think now is the time to find out.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
The problem with Bergy...
…right handers who don’t throw hard always live on a razor’s edge. Bergy has to only lose a tiny amount of movement to be done as a major league starter. Yes, as long as he keeps pitching exactly like he has, he’ll be adequate. Baseball is littered with righties who haven’t managed that.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Fair enough
I know that if you say enough words I’ll just end up agreeing with you anyway. You’re magic that way.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Sadly, that is all I learned in seven years at Hogwarts.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
by James F on Dec 14, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Ooh I always appreciate when James makes a joke :)
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Tillman
I would not be in favor of a course of action that puts Tillman in AAA for another year. Britton needs a year at Norfolk. Having said that, it would be hard to turn down Blanton offered as a salary dump. So, it a player like Blanton is offered to us for mere money, take him. Don’t seek him out if we have to part with our dwindling group of prospects.
We can do better than Blanton though right!
Blanton just isn’t very good. He wasn’t in Philly, and he wasn’t in Oakland either, which is rather pitcher friendly. Is Brad Penny still out there? I’d rather have him than Bulldog Blanton. He’s been under Dave Duncan’s tutelage recently so that alone makes Jim more attractive right? Plus better stuff. I’d have more patience for him than Blanton.
by KellRawLive on Dec 14, 2010 6:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I read it was $17M over two years.
And knowing Andy, he will want Phillies to eat a portion of that.
Alec: Chris, did you really buy a $1400 toilet?
Chris: Yeah, it's great. It's Japanese and has those little warm water jets that clean the undercarriage.
Eric: Chris, it's a toilet, you shit in it.
I dont know
I looked it up on Cots and it said he’ll make $10.5M in both 2011 and 2012.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
mlbtraderumors is saying $17M.
If Joe Blanton was a free agent, I don’t think he land a 2 year, $17M contract, but something close. Maybe 2/$12M.
Spewing negativity.
No way
Big Joe could work anywhere near the amount of innings in the AL East as he does in the NL. NL East isnt a cake walk division but add in that DH and subtract some of the NL “small ball” it would be a whole new world. I know he pitched well for the A’s about 4 or so years ago but that is still a different monster is it not?
Blanton has been a 2 win player in 2009 and 2010
$6M per year for 2 years isn’t an outrageous figure especially considering a win has been going for about $5M in today’s market.
Spewing negativity.
Huh? Of course.
I was saying that I think Blanton could get 2/$12M on the open market now. I didn’t say that was his actual salary.
Spewing negativity.
He's a bum
I cant stand Joe B no way would I think anyone should pay him 8 plus. I thaught Philly overpaid and I live in the area and others more than agree. Even 6 Mil for a guy who would have a 5+ ERA in this division idk
sorry ment to put this up here
from Jeff Fletcher @ Fanhouse
Expect National League teams that play in big ballparks to be most interested in Blanton. The Mets, who need an inning-eating starter, might be a good fit if the Phillies would trade him within the division. The Padres might also be a good home for Blanton, but they’d obviously need the Phillies to pick most of the contract.
he Padres might also be a good home for Blanton, but they’d obviously need the Phillies to pick most of the contract.
Yeah, that’s not surprising. Padres are cheap skates. I have a feeling they’ll find a team who’ s willing to pick up a good chuck of the contract. The Mets seem like a really good bet.
Spewing negativity.
you do know...
that he started his career in the AL, right? I mean he wasn’t an amazing pitcher with the A’s, but 3 of his 4 years he was definitely above average. so you can’t just say “hey he had an ERA near 5 in the NL last year, must be a bad pitcher”.
Not saying that
I was saying the AL east is different from the NL east. Even when Joe B was with the As they wernt in exactly a power division eiither
WAR is park adjusted, and I believe, league adjusted as well, but I'm not 100% sure.
He’s a 2 win player. He’s a decidedly an average pitcher. There’s value in that.
Spewing negativity.
Joe Blanton isn't worth it,
but there are other options that are appealing.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Brad Bergesen IS a MLB pitcher
Dammitt, not every starter becomes Jm Palmer. 3E1N is a perfectly acceptable option as a #4 starter. Sure, he may be at or near his ceiling, but the world (and the O’s) needs #4 starters, too. The constant denigration of Bergesen is without merit and undeserved.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
by duck on Dec 14, 2010 2:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bergesen is underrated
As you said, he’ll never be a top of the rotation guy, but honestly, how many are there? Not even half of MLB teams have a guy like that (excluding Philly’s 4) but Bergesen is consistent at what he does, and it is absolutely good enough to be MLB worthy. He just has to wear some shin guards when pitching.
consistent...
except when he’s not. first half of last year was an unmitigated disaster.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
True
but I attribute that mostly to the injury and the whole MASN commercial re-injury. I should have said when healthy, he’s been consistent.
Oh! I have the compromise
it’s name is “swingman”. Someone get Brian Burres on the phone!
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
That'd make Jim Palmer happy.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
he IS available, you know.
whither the bassman?
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think the idea of bringing in any player
where the best case scenario is “We can flip him at the deadline or he’ll get hurt!” is not strategically effective. Sure didn’t work with anybody we had last year.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
tejada? o, man?
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
But who
who would you really like to get to pitch for a year here that 1. Will want to come to Bmore 2. Pitch in the AL East and 3. Know they most likely get moved. Also who is the odd man out?
I'm against bringing in more starters
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Steve Trachsel
I’d much rather have a guy with upside, but there is nothing wrong with taking a guy with questionmarks to see if he is good enough for a contender IMO. Of course, the Orioles aren’t really in this position any more because we need to be giving innings to young guys (when they are ready of course, which is the bone of contention here it seems to me).
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
But why
If the young guys like Timman, Arrieta, and Bergy and even a small part of our plan then just let them start the season. Many of these guys seemed to respond to Buck when he took over. Let ERbe and Britton come out of the pen and spot start here and there to save some of the other guys w/ an inning cap. We have certain guys in the pen for certain situations and keep them in those roles but the young guys who are in the fold to start down the road only bring them in at the start of an inning. Let them get bits of experence here and there without burning them out. Then if needed the 2nd half switch. Throw Tillman and Arrieta to the pen in the same type of role and use Erbe and Britton as SP. Just please get us someone to play first. The pieces seem to be there to start to compete and we do have a decent amount of pitching and guys who can spot start lets stick with what we have for now with exception to 1B
The article
is pretty spot on for what I think. There is only so much they can learn in AA and AAA. Let em see Tex, SterRod, Gonzo, Eva and ect a bunch of times. Time to show and prove
every pitcher is different
Matusz skipped AAA completely, Tillman only pitched 96.2 innings before his first callup… I don’t think you can say that the O’s front office is too conservative in calling up their young prospects and sticking them in the rotation. also, a lot of you seem to be assuming that this pitcher we bring in would have a good chance of preempting a young kid from the rotation. I don’t think that’s true at all. we’ve signed guys like Hendrickson and Eaton, sure, but they moved to the bullpen (or were released) if a prospect was ready to come up. would they have done the same with Millwood? I don’t know, but I don’t think there was anyone you could point to and say “this guy deserved to be in the rotation, but was blocked by Millwood”.
great point.
"this guy deserved to be in the rotation, but was blocked by Millwood".
Insert any high promise young pitcher, and, any veteran SP we’ve had, and I don’t think you could say that any such pitcher blocked any such high promise guy. For one thing, I don’t think you can say that the Os have had the kind of quality young guys that they have right now. The truth of the matter is that, no veteran has been blocking any young pitcher in the last 12 or so years because the team has always been in such desperate need for any kind of pitching that it’s always seemed to be an arm or two short of what is suffiecient, hence all of the pitching staff August September collapses.
Boston
is looking at Matt Albers, Get him Theo I would love for him to come into the game against the Os. No 7 run lead would be safe
Chris Tillman said so himself last season that his time back in AAA allowed him to work on a new “cutter.” I’m not sure if there is anything else he can improve on, but he’s only 22. To think that there’s nothing else to prove in the minors is a bit strong, I think.
But
saying he needs to be in the minors to work on those things seems a bit of an over reaction too. I think nearly every pitcher in MLB has something they could work on too. So from the point of him needing to go down to work on something I dont think someone could make an excuse for him to beed to be in AAA to work on it
O's Close to Landing Gregg
Joe McDonald of ESPN.com reports that the Orioles are close to a two-year, $12 million deal with reliever Kevin Gregg.
The O’s offered Gregg a two-year deal in the $8-$10 million range last week, and were probably scared into upping it after Scott Downs pulled in a three-year, $15 million contract from the Angels a few days ago. Gregg had nice 3.51 ERA and 37 saves in 2011, but he’s not a $6 million reliever and the Orioles might have rushed into a bad signing. It’s not clear if they are going to ask him to close or stick with the plan of having Koji Uehara back there
Dan Connolley just tweeted
#Orioles have not made a $12 million offer to Kevin Gregg. Club doesn’t feel any deal is imminent. 2 year offer bw 8-10M still on table
He's a poor man's
Brad Lidge. Every game is an adventure. Alfredo sauce isnt much different and for the fact Gregg pitched in that big yard in Toranto to goto OPACY no thank you. Give him an Andy McP 2$ bill and call it even
Fanhouse: Jeff Fletcher
Expect National League teams that play in big ballparks to be most interested in Blanton. The Mets, who need an inning-eating starter, might be a good fit if the Phillies would trade him within the division. The Padres might also be a good home for Blanton, but they’d obviously need the Phillies to pick most of the contract.
is it just me...
or is the term “innings eater” one of the most annoying baseball idioms there is?
proven veteran with playoff experience has to be up there!
I listened to the ESPN radio broadcast of Game 1 of the NLDS between SF and Atlanta. Chris Berman, on Brooks Conrad: “they love his grit.” A week later the bloom was off the rose, I’m guessin.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
how about a proven innings eater with playoff experience?
I hear they make great mentors.
career whip of 1.335, 1.99 k/bb, 6.6 k/9, 3.3 bb/9
At least he didn’t cost a draft pick, so there’s that.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
proven closer!
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 14, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
I like this deal.
Cheap, young-ish reliever with upside. Worst-case scenario: he fails or gets injured and we lost $1mil. Best case scenario: he pitches well, becomes a set-up guy, goes to arbitration next year. This is the way we need to sign relievers.
This is pretty much a textbook Andy MacPhail deal
and I mean that in a good way.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
A note on Arrieta:
If we take Arrieta’s September/October xFIP (FIP adjusted for home runs) and compare it to the FIP of starters who pitched all of 2010, these are comparable starters: Danny Haren, John Danks, John Lackey, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer, Shaun Marcum, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Pelfry.
I know, that’s based on a very small sample size, but I think it represents Arrieta’s upside. I think that a lot of people have taken him for granted.
*Also: This is meant to be a quick and dirty look at Arrieta’s value. Nothing more.
Not only do you have a sample size problem...
…you have a selection bias problem.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Gammons reports the Sux signed Fatalbers
Awesome!
by KellRawLive on Dec 14, 2010 7:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Hot damn!
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
Reaction on OTM is lukewarm
someone kind-of remembered an Albers’ blowout against the Sox last year. Dig a bit further, boys. You’ll love what you find.
also we are the Bat-limore Orioles over in Monsterland. They proofread too!
Minor League Offers
Has anyone heard if we’ve offered any minor league contracts to veteran starters or have we expressed any interest in doing so. To me this is really the only sort of idea we should be looking into as far as adding any more starters. If the youngsters don’t pitch well enough we can turn to one of these guys to ‘eat innings’ until someone is ready to step up.
Guys I’d look at (and sorry if someone has signed and I didn’t catch it) would be Freddy Garcia, Jeff Suppan, Rodrigo Lopez and Doug Davis just to name a few, I’m sure there are others. Now these guys may or may not be signed by other teams but I think we are an option that gives them a reasonably good chance to make a major league roster out of camp. Then again if the need presents itself we could always look around for a veteran forced out in spring training by a younger player.
I’m certainly in the camp that acquiring anyone being paid more than two or three mil has no benefit to a young team like the O’s
Little early for that
Minor league deals probably will get handed out mid-January and after, I’d guess.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
i want greinke
and definitely DON’T want him in pinstripes.
other FA pitchers available:
JDuscherer
BPenny
CYoung
RHarden
BWebb
BChen
JFrancis
JWashburn
hard to believe none of these guys is conceivable better than Blanton. many of these guys are very talented, but can’t stay healthy, in the Bedard/Hampton mold. what would be wrong with an incentive-laded contract for one of these guys? assuming they’d take it, of course.
i should clarify that
i know Greinke is not a FA.
and i know we’ve tried bruce chen and he ain’t so hot. i should take him off that list, actually, but i’m ok with the others on the right deal.
How much is B Webb asking for?
by pwillisbeast52 on Dec 14, 2010 10:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm not sure if I'm remembering correctly
but I thought his agent had said that they were going to use Ben Sheets’ contract as a starting point. So $10 mil I guess.
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 14, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
$10 mil seems a bit much
Last I read, Webb had completely lost his velocity and was having trouble hitting 90. That was a few months ago though. That said, I wouldn’t mind giving him a shot on a minor league/minimal major league contract.
.02
I'd like to add Brian Bannister
Brian Bannister seems like he struggles in odd years. Brian Bannister, as it has been reported countless times, is an intelligent pitcher who might benefit from a “change of scenery”. Brian Bannister is 30-years-old. Brian Bannister probably likes crab cakes. Brian Bannister: if I knew how I would have you marvel at statistics of Brian Bannister’s starts versus the Orioles, but I don’t so I can’t but he was probably great…practically?
You know what else has the initials B.B.? Big Brother.
Brian Bannister.
Have a good night.
yeah...
i like the idea of bannister in theory.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 17, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Chien-Ming Wang
Cost Washington 2 Million last year.
Is a FA. Was non tendered by Washington.
Will be only 31 Opening Day.
Has pitched in the AL East.
did not pitch last year, and sucked the year before.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Well written, Stacey
a good read and correct on so many points that I wouldn’t have thought of.
When you're born into the human race you're given a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you're given a front row seat. And some of us have notepads.-George Carlin
by Afghanistan Steve on Dec 14, 2010 11:33 PM EST reply actions
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