Wednesday Bird Droppings
by Stacey on Dec 15, 2010 9:23 AM EST
in Open Threads
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Orioles Insider: Koji happy to be back, sideburns and all; Arrieta feeling good; Reynolds the recruiter
Lots of fun stuff in here. Koji's sideburns are still fantastic and he wanted to return to the Orioles because he likes it here. Really! And Mark Reynolds is texting Adam LaRoche being all, "Dude! In Baltimore you might be one of the better players on the team!"
Jeremy Accardo, Orioles Reportedly Agree to 1-Year Deal -- MLB FanHouse
One year, $1.08M.
Red Sox Sign Matt Albers - Over the Monster
Matt Albers is now with the Red Sox while the Orioles throw millions at Kevin Gregg. I'm not saying Kevin Gregg isn't better, but is he $12M better?
Orioles closing in on Gregg - Scoop Du Jour - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
The deal isn't finished yet, but the O's ares still the front runners.
Eagles removed from Ed Smith Stadium lights
The American eagles that had taken up residence at Ed Smith Stadium have been moved to Dollywood. They're so lucky!
Reynolds can't wait to get started with Orioles | orioles.com: News
I'm sure it's just P.R., but it's still nice to hear someone being psyched to come to Charm City. -zk
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"Wedensday"?
You can delete this and hide the evidence if you want. ;P
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Yeah, that one's on me
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
hahaah I was rushing!
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
also, thanks for hitting the edit button and fixing it for me, duck.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I didn't fix it
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
by duck on Dec 15, 2010 9:46 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, that was sarcasm :P
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
by Stacey on Dec 15, 2010 10:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
You didn't use the sarcasm font
How was I supposed to tell?
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
1B: Lee or LaRoche?
Obviously, there’s no guarantee we get either, but they seem to be the two primary targets for the O’s right now. There’s also the “put Luke at 1B; sign a DH” plan, but Buck wants to pick up a solid-to-plus defender at first, so that seems unlikely unless both Lee and LaRoche sign elsewhere.
According to Dan Connolly, Lee seems to be looking for a one-year deal, while LaRoche wants two years. Both had down years in ‘10, Lee to a larger extent, and they have comparable defensive skills. LaRoche is younger and healthier, while Lee has significantly more upside if he gets back to pre-’10 form. Who would you sign?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Give me Lee on a 1 year deal and go after Prince (or Pujols if he doesn't extend) next winter.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
I think I'd side with LaRoche
if we can somehow get him to take a two-year, with the second year being a club or mutual option. Really, either would be a nice 1B assuming a reasonable contract, I’m thinking.
Pujols to B-more.. man, don’t get my hopes up :)
Albert Pujols, future Oriole
I’m down for whoever wants a one year deal. Preferably Lee. I’m not overly impressed with LaRoche’s career numbers. Even though LaRoche is younger, Lee I think will post a higher OPS+ in 2011.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
whoever's willing to sign for one year, get them
we’re only looking for a warm body to put over there without the need to replace them after two months anyway. Just get the guy with the least amount of contractual risk.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Me too
even if we manage to sign Prince after this season, they could split time at 1B/DH, or we could trade LaRoche.
why
who cares how many years. If they O’s are going to go after a significant upgrade next season I doubt the fact that LaRoche or Lee having a year left on their contract will stop them. and if they don’t get someone next year or no one in the minors is ready then they have someone in place.
yeah
1 or 2 years is fine for LaRoche. I would be wary of Lee because of his age though. I’m not about to complain that we could have too many good options at 1B on the books in 2012.
hahaha...
the orioles being TOO good really hasn’t been a concern for some time.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, but how good is Adam LaRoche really?
You probably wouldn’t have wanted Lyle Overbay for two years (Pittsburgh sure didn’t), but they were basically the same guy offensively last year.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
who knows
he could have a monster year or he could have a atkins year. I just don’t see how 2 years would be a deal breaker in my eyes. If 2 years gets LaRoche here than so be it. The # of years and money we are talking about isn’t that significant that it would screw up the long term success of this team.
it wouldn't be a deal breaker
but I would rather have Lee for one year than LaRoche for two years
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
thats fair
I just look at it as w/ either next year we are doing this all over again. If either are here on a 2 year, then that is always a fall back option if no significant upgrade can be made. This whole looking for a 1B every year is annoying.
this
Whoever will sign for one year is who i want.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 15, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
I just have a horrible feeling about Lee
He’ll be horrible, or injured and Luke will be at 1B by mid May. I’d rather take a chance on LaRoche, even on 2 years.
Yes, but why is it at all important to get LaRoche here?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Because we have no first baseman capable of playing the postion on our roster
Luke would fill in if need be, but he’s really not the answer. LaRoche, in my opinion, is the best option left.
What makes him the best option?
I just don’t get the love for LaRoche. He’s another two win player. So what?
What is the harm in letting the four headed beast of Luke/Snyder/Waring/Mahoney hold it down? LaRoche is not the answer and won’t ever be. He’s just another stopgap, and I’m sick of overpaying for stopgaps. Let’s see if one of the kids actually can play and if not we can drive a Brinks truck to Prince’s door in the offseason.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I just don't think Snyder/Waring/Mahoney are ready at this point
and honestly, most major league rosters have multiple positions filled with “stopgaps”. Sometimes they can be part of the solution. LaRoche had a pretty good year last year, who says he can’t play decent for a year or two here? I’m not saying give him 15 mil a year, but I highly doubt it’ll take serious overpaying to get him here.
This
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
LaRoche sucks too much for the pirates
Who cares what stopgap we have next year
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 15, 2010 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
well, that LaRoche sucked too much for the pirates too
Pirates fans loved it when he was gone
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Dec 15, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
I'm tired of hearing about how the stopgaps "can be part of the solution"
yeah…if they were better baseball players.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Eh
If we had a bunch of great players at other positions, we could afford a stopgap at first and still be good.
But we don’t have great players at other positions, and we’re not good.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
that's exactly what I'm saying
so why bother differentiating between LaRoche and Lee? Just get the lowest bidder and let’s get on with our 75 win season.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Great minds think alike...
…and clearly, so do idiots like us!
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
They will probably never be "ready"...
…but what more can they prove in the minors? Snyder has a year and a half of AAA time. Waring will have a year in AAA by midseason. The time to start giving them chances is now or never.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Some players just aren't major league talent
I don’t have faith that they will ever be part of the solution, whereas LaRoche could help now, in a season where the Orioles desperately need to have a decent season to get fan interest back, and prove to free agents (Prince Fielder) that is a good place to play. This year is critical in more ways than giving a couple guys who will never be major league capable a chance to further prove the Orioles’ ineptness.
I have issues with the following phrases you've used
“help now”, “decent season”, “fan interest”, and “prove to free agents that it is a good place to play”. Adam LaRoche does not do any of those things in a meaningful way over James’ replacement player plan (or my “let Luke do it and DH Reimold” preferred plan)
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I do think he's better than those guys
I don’t think the difference between them matters at all.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
He is better, obviously...
…he’s just not that much better. And not that much better is not worth millions of dollars.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
The difference between them is astronomical
LaRoche may not be Pujols, be he’s capable of hitting 20-25 HR with around 100 RBI. Even if he hits half that it’ll be better than what either of those guys will do. Also, who cares about the money, signing LaRoche will not, in any way, keep us from signing other players.
especially when we consider the opportunity cost
to get more plate appearances for Reimold, Mahoney, and Waring.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
And there's the key consideration
Opportunity cost. Yes, I know, I’m the same one saying we could use a vet starter, but I also hold the opinion that pitching is different. Tillman could get time in the bullpen, learning what he needs to know at the MLB level. Reimold, Mahoney and Waring don’t have that luxury.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
I don't have faith in them either...
….but I don’t have to. I have strength in numbers. I can keep throwing prospects at the problem at first, and if none of them work out, I can put Luke there.
I keep saying this, and I don’t know why it isn’t sinking in: the Orioles are NOT on the verge of a decent season in all probability, and if we do have a decent season, a two win first baseman isn’t the difference maker. If we have a decent season, it will be because Wieters/Jones/Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman have breakout years and emerge as star players. That has nothing to do with who plays first.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
that ain't decent to me
I can’t speak for James (“there’s no prize for fourth place!”), but 75 wins is a terrible season. Why blow money and opportunity chasing 75 wins?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I think 75 is very realistic for this team
with the continued growth of the young players, plus the additions we’ve already made. Adding a proven 1B to the team we have now helps this team more than giving at bats to guys who will never do anything. 80+ wins is in the realm of possibility with that team, in my opinion. Even if it only gets us to 75, that’s a big improvement from what we’re used to, which is what we need to get a guy like Prince to want to come here.
Last year
when the Orioles waltzed into the season with Garret Atkins at first base, I was running around saying (and Stacey can attest to it, , since I was still doing it on Opening Day) that the Orioles should have just gone with the collection of replacement type players like Rhyne Hughes at first, since the upside of Atkins was maybe 2 wins at best (?) and the upside of Hughes was figuring out what you had, and potentially hitting the jackpot with the young dude with a decent minor league track record.
That totally still holds. What is the real upside of Adam LaRoche? Over the last three years, he’s been about as offensively good as Lyle Overbay and Garret Jones. With LaRoche the Orioles get to 75 wins.
Why would Prince Fielder, or more importantly his smart agent Scott Boras, look at the Orioles winning 75 games and then having LaRoche and Hardy walk and say to themselves “This is a team that is competitive! Let’s get in on this!” (assuming that Fielder’s motivation is indeed simply to be on a good team, which it isn’t).
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
If I had any faith in our 1B prospects, I'd agree with you
but I just don’t. Snyder is probably the only one “ready” for MLB, and he’s just not good. The other guys I think need some more time.
it's true
the first base prospects…I don’t really think much of any of them. Which is why I say let Luke do it and DH Reimold. I simply think that when you’re staring losing in the face either way, go for the young guns. I’m not going to be particularly mad if they sign LaRoche or Lee (especially if its a one-year rental), I’ll just be disappointed that the rebuilding train seems to have stalled out in the “stopgap to maybe .500” station.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Like I said, I can live with it
it’s just less than ideal. It’s a C+ move.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I never said it's the answer to all of our problems
only that it’s our best option for this year and that it doesn’t, in my opinion, hurt the future because we don’t have anyone ready for the MLB at 1B in the minors yet.
I know you were being sarcastic
but over a 162 game schedule, you are gonna have to fill some seats with casual fans who wanna see players hit home runs. Obviously, that’s not the long term answer, but it will help attract a few more fans, and fill a void which has no short or long term answer right now.
but homers do
You can’t tell me that the casual fan won’t be more attracted to come if the O’s get off to a hot start and have a first baseman hitting homers. Brandon Snyder hitting .150 to start the season won’t attract anyone.
history disagrees with you
DON’T JUST THROW OUT FACTS UNLESS YOU ARE SURE OF THEM. YOU SHOULDN’T HAVE COMMENTED AT ALL.
heh.
seriously though,
2003 Orioles: 71 Wins, average 30,302 fans per home game
2004 Orioles: 78 Wins, average 34,300 fans per home game
2003-2004 was the last year-to-year dramatic improvement in record, and attendance jumped. Every year since, the record has dropped (except this past year’s 2-win uptick), and attendnace has dropped as well.
You can’t really conclude anything definitively, but it is a fact that the last time the Orioles showed a major improvement, they attracted more fans.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
2003 Orioles: 71 Wins, average 30,302 fans per home game
2004 Orioles: 78 Wins, average 34,300 fans per home game
2003-2004 was the last year-to-year dramatic improvement in record, and attendance jumped. Every year since, the record has dropped (except this past year’s 2-win uptick), and attendnace has dropped as well.
it could mean what you’re arguing. it could also mean random fluctuation. after all, we should expect some slight changes in attendance from year to year based on pure randomness. also, you could be cherry picking numbers. if i took the time to look at all mlb teams in the last 20 years, i wouldn’t be surprised i could find one instance characterized by a few thousand fan attendance jump after losing a few more games.
IIRC 2004 is the year we signed Tejada, Javy, and Raffy. fans like to see big name stars. i won’t deny that.
Spewing negativity.
as i said above
you can’t conclude anything definitively. i’m not actually arguing that the extra wins are responsible—simply stating a fact. i’d be the first to point out that there could be many reasons why it happened. perhaps all of baseball went up that year. perhaps it was the signing of raffy. who knows?
that said, averaging 4,000 more fans per game over a season is not a random fluctuation. that’s 320,000 more fans over the course of a full year, which is a significiant number.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I don't think we can win 80...
….I think we can win 75 if we catch some breaks. And that is not a decent season in the AL East.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
So would you rather have a couple of prospects who likely put up Atkins like numbers
than LaRoche, only because of money? Atkins is the anti-Christ to most people here, so why is it ok if a couple of shitty prospects put up his similar numbers? I, for one, would like to see this team be as good as possible. I’m not saying we have to use the old Oriole strategy of signing old, washed up stop gaps, but LaRoche still has the ability to put up above average numbers and help this team.
For me...
..the problem with Atkins wasn’t so much how he sucked, but that we paid him $5M to suck for no reason.
And I’m on record as saying that I don’t care about our team being as good as possible. I want us to contend for the playoffs in the near future, not suck a mite less this season.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Can't it be both?
that’s what I want. LaRoche doesn’t hurt the future, but can help the present. If the goal is to sign Prince next year, who gives a shit about getting decent at best prospects MLB time before they might be ready? Not like they’d see any playing time once he got here.
How doesn't he hurt the future?
He costs millions that could be spent on amateur talent. He blocks prospects and young major leaguers from getting needed playing time. And for what?
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I'm okay with signing any of the remaining first basemen
But I don’t think we should. But in the scheme of things, Lee is cheaper, and therefore less of a mistake. But I think signing any of them isn’t the best idea.
Of course, I didn’t think getting Reynolds was the best move either.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
How long do you think it will be
before the O’s have a chance to compete? 2 years? 3? Reynolds will only be 30 by then, can play 1B or 3B as well as DH, and Josh Bell is obviously in need of more AAA time.
This depends on factors I can't predict
For example, the development of Wieters and a second young starter after Matusz. In two to three years, Reynolds is a free agent.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Why?
What reason is there to start deciding that Reynolds will be our best 3b option three years from now?
For us to be competitive in the future, we need two of our young pitchers to become 3+ win players, for Wieters to develop into an offensive star, and for one other offensive player to develop into a 4+ win player. If those things don’t happen, we are simply fucked and will have to reboot once again. So our focus should be on trying to turn these key players currently on our team into what we need them to be, and into developing the next line of prospects behind them if these ones don’t pan out. Without these things happening, success for us remains impossible.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I didn't say he'd be our best option
but if he’s playing well, and is our best option for 3B/1B/DH or even as a backup we can re-sign him at that point if it continues to help the team. I know he isn’t the centerpiece of this team, Wieters/Matusz and the rest of the young pitching/Markakis etc are, but there’s no reason he can’t be a valuable “nugget”
Reynolds is who he is
He’s a 2 win player. I don’t see the point in thinking about where we are going to get two wins three seasons from now.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Ok, so if you add up every player's "win value"
on every team in the league, I highly doubt it ever comes out to the amount of games the team actually wins. WAR tells nothing, in the grand scheme of a 162 game MLB season.
Plus those prospects aren't MLB ready
besides suck ass Brandon Snyder. I doubt a few million dollars on LaRoche puts a dent in Angelos’ MASN money, as well.
as has been noted before...
…there’s no reason to think that money not spent on FAs then gets spent on amateur talent instead.
Also, it’s not just the number of wins, but the direction the team is going in. 75 wins would be a 9-win improvement over last year, which is tangible proof that the team is headed in the right direction. Ultimately, I think FA signings come down to money, but “heading in the right direction” certainly can’t hurt.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
its not tangible if it's artificially inflated
by getting wins from one-year rentals.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
but if we're rebuilding
then the important value of the team in terms of “heading in the right direction” is how the core guys who’ll still be here in 2 or 3 years (or more) are performing. Which makes signing LaRoche or anybody else meaningless outside of the fact that you need a warm body at the position.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
We don't have any core guys at 1B who will be here in 3 years
at least not any who are ready for MLB in 2011
well, duh.
but we don’t get to 75 wins without the core guys improving.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
A stopgap proven player like LaRoche
who is above average at 1B is better than a stop gap future failed prospect who will have a very below average year.
Well, you aren't wrong
you really aren’t. But I would not be so hasty to write off the “future failed prospects” because you don’t know until you know. And we don’t know yet.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I was more referring to Snyder than the other guys
I have no faith in Snyder. Waring has potential, maybe Mahoney as well, but I think those guys could use at least another year in the minors. I see Waring ready next year, if he continues to improve this year. But by then, hopefully he’s blocked by the Prince.
not one of the future failed prospects
has earned the right to have an opportunity at MLB. so we do kind of know.
what?
the baseball world doesn’t care if you have one-year rentals or not.
A team winning ten games more than its prior year is generally thought to be in good hands. The conventional wisdom assumes those hands will continue to make smart decisions in the 2011 offseason.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
who cares about the baseball world?
What difference does it make whether or not Chris Berman thinks the Orioles are “on the rise”? I’m talking about us, our actual team, getting better, not the perception of them getting better by people too lazy to do anything beyond look at the standings.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Like I said before
there’s nothing wrong with getting better now and preparing for the future. At least as long as the stopgaps don’t block any prospects on the verge, which we honestly don’t have at 1B.
And I agree!
Provided it’s a one year deal for relatively low money, I’ll happily root for Adam LaRoche to come to Baltimore and hit some dingers and hopefully turn into some good prospects. I’d just rather try and get some time at the plate to some other guys and get a stronger read on them than we currently have, since either way the core we’re hanging everything on will be what it is. But I’m not going to be upset about a stopgap move (provided it’s not along the lines of certain beaver-faced jerks).
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
We can get those guys at bats later
they aren’t ready yet. Even if LaRoche is signed to 2 years, he’d be decent trade bait.
I care
perception matters when trying to attract free agents.
And if you’re pursuing 75 wins, sometimes you get lucky and wind up with 82, which would be a tremendous perception change.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
by zknower on Dec 15, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you might be right
but if the Orioles win 82 games next year, I really don’t think it’s going to be because Adam LaRoche carries the team….and if it is, then won’t prospective free agents acknowledge that the team played so well because of AL MVP Adam LaRoche, who has just left the team for “greener” pastures?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
nobody is suggesting Adam LaRoche would carry the team
The point is that with the current core improving, AND LaRoche they have a better shot at .500 than they do with the current core improving alone.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
but we're talking about like a two win difference at best
Do you think those extra two wins are going to be the final straw that brings in Prince Fielder?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
If it's the difference between 80 and 82, it's entirely possible.
We have to remember, most players are really old-school in terms of their baseball thinking. I think a fair number would be more willing to come to the O’s if we were a “winning team.”
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
That said,
I’m more or less with you on this… I’m concerned that with a full-time 1B, one (or both) of Reimold and Pie aren’t going to get the at-bats they need for us to evaluate them. But I’ve been beating that drum since last off-season.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Sometimes I get so sick of the WAR talk
LaRoche is a 2 win improvement by WAR over an average MLB player, but you can’t say he isn’t a much bigger improvement than 2 WAR over Joe fuckin Mahoney/Snyder/Waring
LaRoche is a 2 win improvement by WAR over anaverage MLBreplacement player,
An “average” player is much better than a replacement player.
Spewing negativity.
how so?
a replacement player is pretty shitty. brandon snyder is pretty shitty. i doubt there’s a huge difference.
Spewing negativity.
If LaRoche hits .260 with 25 HR and 90 RBI
and Snyder maybe hits .230 with 10 HR and 55 RBI, you don’t think we win more than 2 extra games? Sorry, I know people hate going by RBI and HR, but I don’t feel like calculating all the other more involved stats. But those numbers alone can tell you what you need to know.
dude
what does laroche have to do with a replacement level player? of course, laroche is better than synder. who the fuck is arguing otherwise.
Spewing negativity.
sure
we just have different ideas about how to make the O’s a better team because we have different concerns. you want short term wins, i want long term wins.
Spewing negativity.
I want both
and signing someone to play 1B helps in the short term, and possibly the long term, yet does not hurt the long term at all, seeing as how we have no 1B prospects ready.
signing any player
to a 1 year deal does not help the team in the long term. and yes, i don’t agree with t"he cheap wins will make us more attractive to free agent" jazz.
Spewing negativity.
If he signs a 1 year deal
and plays well and we can’t get anyone better so we re-sign him and he continues to play well….that helps the long term.
sure, so let’s sign him down the line then when we’re about to hit the playoffs. his wins now don’t fucking matter. and if he does play well, he may very well jump ship. how the hell does that help us long term?
the ONLY way laroche could help long-term is if we trade at the deadline for prospects.
Spewing negativity.
I'm fine with that too
no minor league options help in the short term, and besides Snyder, none are ready for MLB anyway. So what else is there to do? Luke will be at 1B if we don’t sign someone, guaranteed.
not sure what you're fine with
but whatever, i can’t believe i’m even defending brandon fucking snyder. i don’ t have a problem with playing him. you do, coolio. this conversation isn’t going anywhere.
Spewing negativity.
speculation
might be a 3- or 4-win difference. we really don’t know.
and before you quote me a bunch of statistics that show what a 2-win player is, save it. those stats might be helpful in reviewing results that have happened, but i have zero faith in their ability to predict the future. no offense.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
none taken
but if we aren’t using stats to predict the future, what are we using?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
had this discussion the other day.
there’s a difference between prediction (the Orioles aren’t likely to contend) and conclusion (the Orioles can’t contend).
here the difference is between “a two win difference at best” and “we really have no idea”.
WAR is the flavor of the year this year. I’m suspect of the stat’s value, that’s all, and I’m not about to concede that it’s proof of anything.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Whether or not WAR is accurate...
…doesn’t mean that the principle behind WAR – that we can evaluate a player’s offensive and defensive contributions and assign it a value in wins – is not important.
WAR may be a suspect stat. But the idea that certain players are worth more wins than others is not a suspect idea. Nor is the idea that a player’s potential in any given season is largely a factor of their past performance, seasonal age, and base talent level. So, let’s say we account for the unreliability of WAR by saying that an established player should have a standard deviation from their mean WAR of the past three years of +/- 1 win, and that our young players have a standard deviation of +/- 2.5 wins. We should still finish no better than third place if all our players currently on the roster achieve the high end of the standard deviation.
Hence, the Orioles can’t contend.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
And if Matusz wins 17 games
Arrieta, Bergesen, and Tillman all have solid seasons, Wieters becomes even close to the player we expect him to be, and a few other things go our way….we’ll still have absolutely zero chance of winning 80-85 games?
80-85 wins isn't contending in the AL East
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Nobody is realistically expecting to content in the AL East this year
but the Yankees are old and a few injuries could knock them down to 85 wins. The Rays and Jays could be in the 60s or 70s as easily as the 80s or 90s. I’d love to see the O’s being within a few games of all those teams come September.
The Rays could be in the 60s or 70s?
What is that based on?
The Rays have one of the best players in the game. They have one of the best rotations in the game. And they have one of the ten best prospects in baseball replacing Crawford.
The Rays are going to be very good. Count on it.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I disagree
this is based on the Garza trade talks. If he’s gone, the rotation is average. Losing Crawford will cripple their offense, like B-Rob’s loss crippled ours. Their offense is based entirely on speed/stealing/hit and run/getting the extra base. They were not a good team batting average wise. The entire bullpen is blown up and will hurt them severely. As far as the young prospects, especially the one to replace Crawford, I don’t think it will help a ton in 2011. The Rays are in store for a meltdown.
You don't have to agree
But I, and most other observers for that matter, don’t agree.
Crawford’s value was as much from his defense as his bat – he’s not that exceptional an offensive player. Jennings will match his defense and his speed, and so will only be a downgrade in on-base skills. Longoria is still an MVP type. Upton should be better. Shields/Price/Hellickson/Davis is still a well above average rotation, and that is assuming that they trade Garza, which I doubt, and assuming they don’t get the better of that trade, which I doubt even more.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Shields has gotten worse each of the last 2 years
he’s below average. The other guys are very young with little experience and could easily have a bad year. Price is the only above average guy, in my opinion, and it’s asking a lot to repeat last year’s performance. I guarantee they are .500 at best.
Shields struck out more batters than ever before last year...
…and he lowered his walk totals. He got unlucky and gave up a few more home runs. He’ll be fine.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I'd take a low K total
over an ERA above 5 any day. I like the Rays, I think it’s good to have a small market team competing in this division, and I really do hope they succeed, but I don’t like what I see from them.
Or he just threw more pitches over the plate
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Say, by some miracle
all the young guys develop at the same time and the Yankees lose Sabathia/Teixera for extended periods. That opens up a shot at 2nd place for us. I know that is a lot to ask, and it’s ridiculous to suggest, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Orioles be better than a 4th place team.
all depends on what the other teams do.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
unless....
…other teams have unforeseeable problems and the Orioles somehow get on a hot streak that defies predictions.
I sincerely doubt anything in WAR would have predicted the Orioles’ last two months of the season. Or the SF GIants winning the WS for that matter.
I would give more credence to WAR if I saw a player’s average WAR over the past 10 years, as opposed to a 1-year snapshot, which I believe is how it’s computed. But even then, it’s still only measuring other stats, and cannot take into account things which affect ever baseball season: other teams’ injuries, psychological factors (which I suspect you’ll disagree with), etc.
Therefore, the Orioles can contend.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Well you can't predict who will win the World Series
The playoffs are a crap shoot, and based on their pitching I never counted out the Giants, that can kill another team in that kind of format.
But as brek said below, they had the 9th best team WAR and 8 teams make the playoffs. Not bad.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I think WAR predicted the last two months pretty well
Overall, for the season, the O’s played about as expected. The terrible first two thirds of the season meant that for the O’s to regress to the mean, they had to have a great last two months.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
potentially 20-25 HR and 80-100 RBI
can carry a team a pretty good way, at least further than any other options we have. And if the great and powerful LaRoche decides to take his talents to South beach elsewhere, that leaves room for Fielder.
okay look
I think we’ve hashed this all out pretty good, and the conversation has stayed pretty cordial and I’m very proud of myself for that, because I think I have a nasty tendency to get nasty (and I’m trying to break that). So I’m not sure where else to go with this.
However, I’d like to point you to JP’s Camden Chat 101 in which RBI are rendered meaningless because they are based so heavily on who gets on base before you come up to bat.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I agree, but you still have to knock those guys in
and LaRoche will do that much more effectively. But, as you said, I feel this has been hashed out as much as it possibly can be. I respect your opinions a lot, I just happen to disagree on some of them.
I personally speculate a 10 win improvement
won’t attract anyone unless that 10 win improvement puts the O’s into the playoffs. And I’m skeptical of stop gaps giving us 10 wins. Free agents are primarily motivated by money. Free agents will happily come here once Andy outbids everyone.
Spewing negativity.
Free agents will happily come here once Andy outbids everyone.
- No, a lot of them won’t
- What makes you think Andy will ever outbid everyone to the degree that would be necessary. Do you really think we should be doing what the Natinals are doing?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Money is fundamentally fungible
The Orioles don’t seem to see it that way, but their lack of obedience to the plan for success is simply an indicator that they will not succeed, not an indicator that we should not in a theoretical framework see money as being fungible.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
ok we get it
you have a college education. whoop-de-doo, smarty pants.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
from way above and in between
This blog is turning into School of Schmuck. It is really sad.
I don’t understand how everyday LaRoche’s WAR turns into this team sucks and everyone is wrong for wanting the O’s to sign a 1B that has actually played the position at the ML level with decent success. To me this sounds as if you want to pay to watch Snyder struggle or Scott learn a new position opposed to watching a team that has a better chance of winning a game with LaRoche or Lee. If Snyder is ready he will have every chance to prove it in ST. If he isn’t then LaRoche or Lee is there to play first and give the O’s a chance to win. Why does a 2 year 10 mil contract seem like it is going to ruin this team or prevent the Orioles from upgrading at any point between now and the end of the 2013 season. James – we get it, you hate everything the O’s do and it pisses you off. Andrew – we get it, WAR tells us the Orioles will suck. Can we move on and talk about something else? The horse hasn’t even arrived yet and it is already dead.
by Philly O's on Dec 15, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well now I'm insulted
I always thought we were more along the lines of The Toy Dept. (which…can anyone tell what the fuck that shit is even supposed to be?)
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
A bizarre ass name too (Toy Dept.)...
and Schmuck’s blog is where all the McFail types go, people who generally advocate for the magical acquisition of a “big bat” and a “proven starter” that somehow does not require the team to surrender it’s handful of prospects.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I saw someone on Orioles Insider
Propose this trade for Greinke
If the price was right. I’d give up Tillman/Guthrie, Andino and Harris. Seeing as KC needs infield help, giving them two infielders is a pretty good deal. Especially with Andino being young.
cxcxcxcxzzzzzzzzz
The proposed trade
is basically Guthrie for Greinke and two losers and who wouldn’t do that?
cxcxcxcxzzzzzzzzz
Yeah really
they want a return as if he’s the next Roger Clemens. They’re not gonna get it. Honestly, I hope they keep overvaluing him and he stays there and continues to be a good player for them. I’d hate to see him be a 4th starter for the Yankees or Red Sox.
I'm looking at the variance
between FG and BR WAR values for Greinke to determine what his value even is, and am pretty amazed that BR has him at a 2+ player and FG has him at 5+.
At this point I think it’s pretty obvious the Royals would be better off waiting to make a move until we’re closer to June or July. I don’t think he’s repeating 2009 and it’s hard to figure his value now.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t understand how everyday LaRoche’s WAR turns into this team sucks and everyone is wrong for wanting the O’s to sign a 1B that has actually played the position at the ML level with decent success.
It’s really sad that 1) people make up shit that people didn’t write (nobody said it’s “wrong” for the O’s to sign LaRoche, or that it’s going to “ruin” the team, which is hyperbole), and 2) people are scolded for thinking against the stream. james and andrew are presenting reasonable arguments. if you don’t like them, fine. but either address the arguments, or quit patronizing everyone.
Spewing negativity.
it's not even getting too argumentative
Philly O’s fan is being dismissive. Fine, you don’t like WAR. I don’t even a problem with that. There are a lot of good reasons NOT to like WAR! But the idea of sacrificing wins now to develop players doesn’t deserved to be dismissed. And if you’re going to dismiss it, tell me why rather saying things like, “we get it, you hate everything the O’s do and it pisses you off.” I mean saying things like, “If Snyder is ready he will have every chance to prove it in ST,” shows you really don’t believe in giving Synder a chance (which is fine, he’ll probably suck but we don’t know until we give him a chance).
Spewing negativity.
Sacrificing wins now to give Snyder a chance is stupid
because he sucks. If we had someone remotely good and ready for MLB, I’d willingly sacrifice wins to give them experience, but we don’t.
you don't know he sucks until you give him a chance
yes, he probably will suck. projection systems tell me so. but you don’t know until you play him.
Spewing negativity.
Everyone knew Brandon Fahey would suck
and we should never have played him. Not all prospects deserve MLB playing time.
good prospects deserve playing time
fahey was never a good prospect. synder at one point was a good prospect.
Spewing negativity.
at one point
not at this point. There are many prospects who were good in A or AA ball but are crap after that and don’t warrant additional high level playing time.
so what?
he’s one year removed from a good minor league season. he doesn’t warrant additional playing time on a contending time. but a rebuilding team can take chances.
Spewing negativity.
We're not at the beginning of a rebuild
at least hopefully we’re not. If we don’t get into contention in the next 2 years, we probably never will with this group of players.
we are in process of rebuilding
we can afford to take chances to develop players. if you don’t agree, cool, whatever.
Spewing negativity.
In the AL East
the 3 “other teams” will always be in some kind of rebuild. But that is an entire topic entirely.
no they won't
the jays just won 85 games last season. the rays can still make moves to become contenders again.
Spewing negativity.
The Rays don't wanna spend more than 20 bucks on their roster
they aren’t gonna make significant moves.
you can make significant moves w/o spending lots of money
the rays know that better than anyone.
Spewing negativity.
Did they know it for the first 14 years or so
when they were terrible? They got lucky on some moves, some were flat out brilliant. They lost too much to replace this year. They might get back to contention, but this year I see them falling flat.
my point is that
friedman has a track record of finding cheap talent that produces.
Spewing negativity.
True
but that luck will run out. They have so much to replace and cheap talent won’t do it this year. I could be wrong, I hope I’m wrong…like I said I root for another small team to compete in this division. It’s just my opinion that they’ll be bad this year.
if he can't OPS better than .732 in AAA,
why should be get a chance in the Bigs?
What reason do you have to believe he will somehow figure something out against ML pitching that he hasn’t figured out against a bunch of guys who can’t even break a ML roster?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
No real reason...
…but it has happened before, and Snyder’s true talent is probably better than that, as is the big league coaching and conditioning.
I’d use him against lefties and as a defensive replacement, with Scott starting at first against righties and at DH against lefties. But also, there just isn’t room for Snyder in AAA anymore. Waring and Mahoney have to play in Norfolk. Snyder is on the 40-man, and it is time to let him play and if he can’t, to take him off it.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I absolutely agree
I don’t see any reason not to give the chance. I’d much rather have a year of LaRoche, or Lee, for the right price but I wouldn’t be against giving Snyder a chance. We aren’t going to compete and I suspect we’ll get at least 75 wins with, or w/o Adam and Derreck.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 15, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
b-rob and dan uggla
had absolutely no right developing into the player they’ve become based on their minor league record. weird things sometimes happen.
Spewing negativity.
No one holds a gun to your head and says...
…“read what James F writes and take it seriously.”
If you don’t like my views, go right ahead and ignore them.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
put that gun down, James.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Jamie's got a gun...
…what did daddy do?
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist.)
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
that is not my intent
I really enjoy reading about the minors stuff (when you were able to write it) and I think CC is one of the better places to get that info. I have no problem with what you write or your opinion. Listen I called you out which was probably wrong but I just felt that after reading "they are going to finish in 4th anyways" after every post I just felt I wasn’t learning anything anymore. I don’t know everything and I am on here to get that info and talk about beings I live in philly and have to deal with the 4 aces shit now. So it is what it is.
Look, I know everyone thinks I'm being negative...
….and I’m sorry that you all see it that way, because I don’t. I honestly think I’m being positive. There is a way to build a winner here, and I think I see it, and I’m trying to sell Orioles fans on that. I’m trying to sell all of you on the idea that if we resist our impulses towards immediate gratification, we can be far happier in the long run. We could build a dynasty here.
And so that’s the thing. I’m tired of seeing us see mediocrity as all we can hope for. I want us to be the best team in baseball for the next decade. And we can be. We just need the combination of ambition and wisdom.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I don't get to post on here much, this week I'm on vacation from work
but I read every day, and respect your knowledge of the team. We all want to have the Orioles be a dynasty and build the team properly, but EVERY team has stopgaps, there’s nothing wrong with having them at a couple positions if the prospects aren’t ready at said position. That’s all I’m saying.
I don't disagree
But where I do disagree is with the notion that we have to have the best possible stopgaps.
The money can be better spent. Hell, I think we’re better off having a draft pick that is a couple spots higher too. I think our prospects are adequately ready at first, and that is something everyone is free to disagree with. I also think that there is value in trying to demonstrate that our 1b prospects are ready because if we sign a Prince Fielder, they are nothing more than trade bait. But I’m not saying that we can’t sign a stopgap at first; indeed, just yesterday, I was saying that I am fine with any of the potential stopgaps out there, so long as they are cheap and on a one year deal. And I still think that, even if it isn’t my optimal solution.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
get em
and i don’t know why people find this line of thinking as spewing negativity.
Spewing negativity.
the negativity is implied
by statements such as “no prizes for fourth place” and “the Orioles can’t contend next year no matter what they do.”
even if the first statement is true and the second one proves true, both assertions kind of make the reader want to walk away from the baseball team for a year. and most of us aren’t really interested in doing that.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I simply don't agree that the only reason to watch baseball is to see your team win now
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
well, it's certainly the #1 reason i go to games
i always go hoping for a win, however improbable. appreciating standout players, opposing players, etc. is all secondary.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Me too
that’s why I’m two fans. There is the Stacey’s heart fan and the Stacey’s head fan. My head very frequently agrees with what James is saying, but my heart wants nothing more but to hope for the win. I feel like, in the long run, what James and birdman and such say is probably best for the team, but my heart is all bring me JJ Hardy.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
i'm completely fine with hardy
we gave up shit for him. in fact, i wouldn’t mind extending him.
Spewing negativity.
who does?
Emphasizing progress of the core talent and investing in draft picks is pretty mainstream.
I just don’t buy into the downside of signing a free agent 1b (i.e. financial expense, draft position, blocking the minor league prospects) outweighing the upside of potentially being competitive next year.
by statements such as "no prizes for fourth place" and "the Orioles can’t contend next year no matter what they do."
well, i would say that they’re reasonable statements. i would change “can’t” to “in all likelihood” but i’m being nit picky. after all, there are NO prizes for fourth. and in all likelihood, the o’s aren’t in position in contend no matter what they do within reason.
Spewing negativity.
just pass me that razor blade there, willya?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
The Buddha once said
To live is to suffer.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
We need to draft better, first of all
it’s been pretty embarrassing. If LaRoche won’t sign here for a reasonable amount….then fuck him let Luke play 1B or Snyder, I don’t care. I don’t know what he wants, I’m just assuming we can get him for a decent price.
Also, if we display our 1B prospects before they’re ready and they struggle badly, they lose trade value in the event we get Prince.
inspiring...
but in addition to all that wisdom and ambition, we mainly need the core talent to perform.
bottom line is the 1b free agent makes the team better next year and it does not cost the team anything in lost opportunity.
Again, yes it does
Five more wins means we draft a couple spots later. Five million more spent on free agents is five million that we aren’t going to possibly spend on the draft or amateur talent. We will never build a dynasty spending less on amateur talent than the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Period.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I would like to add to this...
that the ability to run guys out there consistently is a big part of the strategy James is advocating, I think.
See: Berken & Hernandez.
Both guys got a lot of run two years ago. Both looked dreadful for the majority of the time they were on the mound. Both guys also looked a lot better when used in more skill-appropriate roles in 2010. Hernandez repaired his value to the point that he was the target of multiple teams this offseason.
A misapplication of this approach leads to the damn near criminal treatment of Tillman this season. Dude needed Berken-type work in the bigs (damn the results, barring injury) or to be left alone to work on specific things @ Norfolk. Hopefully this year he’ll be the recipient of a much more consistent treatment.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
it can be so tedious ramming the wisdom home.
i get it.
tank the season for draft picks.
no hope of competing this year.
the budget for free agents is directly correlated to the budget for the draft.
FWIW
I don’t believe in tanking for draft picks. But I do think it is important that we recognize that marginal improvement isn’t costless.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
nor can its cost be measured
drafting two picks later will never correlate significantly to drafting success one way or the other. draft picks are too unpredictable.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
thats fine
and no apology needed. I just may have got here late to know you had a business plan that you were trying to sell so it makes sense now that I know where you are coming from.
but
- there may be more than one way (or a combination of ways) to build a winner, and to endlessly demand that there is no room for diversion from your method gets old; and
- signing a somewhat better 1B than the options we doesn’t really qualify as “immediate gratification”. Immediate gratification is like when we sign Sosa and somehow expect that to make a ginormous difference. I don’t think anyone here is arguing that LaROche et al would make a ginormous difference.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
There are more than one way to build a winner
My belief is that we are employing none of them. But also, for the sake of my own sanity, I deal primarily with the routes with the highest estimated probability of building a winner.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
There are more than one way to build a winner
My belief is that we are employing none of them.
Ha… that’s a great line.
wouldn't go that far
for example, i like the “grow the arms, buy the bats” mantra. but yes, great line.
Spewing negativity.
I would like to add
I LOVE this blog. For years I read comments coming from the Baltimore Sun, mlb.com, and MASN, and you’ll agree with me here, I cannot believe all the stupid shit people fucking advocate to make this team better. When I found this blog the offseason after 2009, I couldn’t believe how well rounded ya’ll are. I found out more about baseball than I ever had in years of watching and “researching” after finding this site. A majority of you guys make solid arguments, and I love the different perspectives and views because they are all sound.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 15, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
No, thank you!
I wish I knew about this blog when it first came out. When was that anyways?
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 15, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
What?!
Man, I’ve missed a lot of action.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 15, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely agree
Despite any differences of opinion, most people here are well informed and we are all passionate about the O’s. Even though the Ravens have surpassed the Orioles in popularity in Baltimore, this blog has so many more contributors than the Ravens’ SBN site and it’s always a fun environment here. All of the people who run it get much kudos, the articles are very informing and entertaining.
4 Aces?
Spades = Halladay (highest-ranked suit and gritty)
Clubs = Oswalt (explosive, brute-force approach, and he hunts)
Diamonds = Lee (getting the most money, and the most precise)
Hearts = Hamels (prettiest)
Color of suit lines up with handedness, too.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
poor Cole...prettiest
heh.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
How many times have you heard...
‘Merry Cliff-mass’ or ‘Happy Halladays’ so far?
Fucking kill me already…..
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Who shot Kennedy?
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
Ever.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
i'll play for major league minimum.
i played some mean 3B in my beer softball league.
Spewing negativity.
probably not the best long term plan
but it would be fun to sign lee to play 1B, thome to DH, and put scott in LF. who wouldn’t enjoy this lineup 6 days a week?
roberts
markakis
lee
thome
reynolds
scott
wieters
jones
hardy
luke would make jay gibbons look like willie mays
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
maybe
he only has 37 starts the last two years. but he was solidly above average in 2008 according to fangraphs.
Luke sucks in LF! I've seen it with my EYES!
(I don’t think Luke sucks in LF)
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I don't even know where the "Luke sucks on defense" thing came from
I don’t remember him muffing plays or having noticeably horrible range or a weak arm or anything. Even before UZR, when I watched him play he seemed pretty acceptable to me. I just don’t get it.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
well he's not a lanky black man, so how good could he be?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
either way, they aren't going to do this
the lineup was more interesting than the defense anyway. it’s not the right move, just fun to think about.
but no, i don’t know where that perception came from either. i always thought he looked solid enough out there.
luke is AWESOME in left … i saw it on the Internet
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
If Luke had been in LF last season
he could have resolved that squirrel running on the field incident quite quickly.
Ready. Aim. FIRE!
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
how does jen royle have that job...
her timeline is just non sense. one peice of orioles news or talk every 15 tweets. the rest is all nonsense and shout outs to her friends. She uses twitter less like a reporter and more like a high school girl. and god help me if i see the word “kennifer” again.
It’s the Ric Flair Theory of baseball – To be the man, you gotta beat the man. -duck
by Parkinglotninja on Dec 15, 2010 10:14 AM EST reply actions
THIS
Why must Baltimore media feel the need to hire sort-of -attractive women who are awful personalities? At least Anita Marks really kind of knew her shit about football and you got the sense she was at least trying to make valid points. Royle is just awful.
Anita Marks...
still fell into the same trap that you see a lot of media folks fall into – she got buddy-buddy with a few guys and took their issues to the airwaves (hearing Anita’s awful voice defending a selfish Willis McGahee and Troy Smith was annoying as shit).
It isn’t only female media types that have this problem (paging Peter King), but it sure is common with the ladies in Baltimore.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
thank goodness...
for amber theoharis. i actually think she is perfectly acceptable. frankly, i’d prefer her doing play by play in the booth to jim hunter.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Amber is good...
and she definately carries herself very well in what is undoubtedly a tough position. She also has the benefit of not having to fill hours of radio during which these biases slip out. I don’t think she writes a blog either, so she sticks to fairly strict “coverage” guidelines for her written work and televised spots.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
she does write a column...
or did and it’s certainly been criticized here, but as i recall, it’s weaknesses were more borne out of being very conventional sorts page dreck than anything else.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Right...
I was just looking through her posts and they are more along the lines of team coverage stuff rather than blog-o-matic type stuff that the lesser one puts out. Amber seems to at least put some thought into her pieces.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
She also has, by far, the most actual journalisnm experience
of any of the women mentioned.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
exactly...
i sort of get the sense that maybe she doesn’t want to do the “personality” type stuff (i.e. opinion blog, talk radio). I base that assumption on the fact she is far and away one of the best local journalists we have, yet she doesn’t the same exposure as someone like Jen Royle or Marks. I mean… it has to be that she just doesn’t want to do that… right?!
And…she fulfills the ever important requirement of being attractive.
re:
I base that assumption on the fact she is far and away one of the best local journalists we have
In the Kingdom of the Blind…
yep.
it’s amazing that just being competent will automatically make you one of the better journalists in our town.
But the thing is...
…look at all the out of work reporters today. Baltimore is an easy drive (except during rush hour) from DC – an international journalism hub. The Sun and the other press organizations can’t find someone who crapped out down there who’s better than the clown show currently in town? It’s some sad shit.
The Sun can't afford to hire someone competent
Most newspapers can’t. My first cousin has one of the most important jobs at the NYT. Director of Internet Operations and Advertising. Fancy title for “tasked with keeping the NYT afloat.” If the most famous newspaper in America is struggling, then the Sun can’t afford to hire anyone else. They have to promote from within and right now…they’re all hacks.
Where are my shoelaces?
what's this about being a journalist though...
…she works for the organization. She’s an on-air personality – not a journalist. Journalists are independent of the parties they cover.
ha, true.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
There are a lot of sports "journalists" who are plenty biased
For instance, everyone who works for ESPN.
Where are my shoelaces?
Sure...
…but their bias is usually drawn from self-interest/ratings. Not directly from who writes their paycheck. That’s an enormous difference.
Seriously, it’s like calling the White House Press Secretary a journalist. “Hey, he tells you the news!”
Ehhhh...I think the guys upstairs for ESPN have a lot of pull.
I’m pretty sure they tell their baseball analysts to fawn over the Yankees/Red Sox and act like they’re the only winners and the only teams that matter in the league.
All theoretical, of course.
Where are my shoelaces?
They cover the Yanks/BoSox
because it brings guaranteed good ratings. Same reason they talk about the loseristic Cubs more than other losers. They go where the money is.
BUT, if they had some hot stuff that might be embarrassing to a specific organization, I bet you a million dollars they wouldn’t suppress it as quickly as an in-house personality like Amber would. That’s why journalists need to be independent, because organizations, like all of us, rarely operate contrary to their own interests.
But when ESPN pimps the NBA it's not because people watch it
and they are guaranteed good ratings. It’s because they show the games, and they want to MAKE people think that the league is still interesting. They do the same thing for Big 10 Football, and they do the same thing against the NHL. So they are just as self-serving. They don’t report the most relevant news, they report the news that revolves around their pre-determined broadcast schedule.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
Agreed...
…they definitely have their own agenda….on ESPN. The same way the Orioles have an agenda for their own interests.
But let’s get serious. Nobody, but nobody, can make the NBA interesting.
Oh I don't know..
the NBA suffers from too long a season (as does the NHL), but it’s pretty good stuff when you get the matchups right.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
unless...
world b. free makes his triumphant return to the league.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
I'm honestly so tired
of giving the NBA chances. It’s so freaking predictable. I stand up for the NBA most of the time when people shit on it, but even I have trouble getting into even the NBA finals.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
I love every second of it
That Celtics-Knicks game tonight was freaking phenomenal…
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
I know this happens with the evening news too
But doesn’t it suck when ESPN says, “blah blah blah coming up next,” and that’s the only thing you’re interested in" and then three or four commercial breaks later, they get to it. By that time I’ve lost interest.
I think it’s more extreme with ESPN than the 11:00 news.
Where are my shoelaces?
How much do you hear about teh NHL
now that ESPN doesn’t show the games? You’re right, they exploit what makes money for them.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
But they don't realize how much they turn off most fanbases
with their rampant Yankee love fest. I know I watch much less now than I used to. I go to the internet to get my sports fix.
Yep, and as long as they employ Kornheiser I'm boycotting them.
God, that guy is such a douche.
Where are my shoelaces?
What's wrong with Kornheiser?
He’s ridiculous, but it’s pretty clear to me he’s in on the joke. I don’t consider PTI appointment television or anything, but if I ever happen to catch it and he’s on there, I am amused.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
He's annoying.
He doesn’t make good points and he yells. I hate it when sports personalities yell. It’s just a pet peeve of mine.
Where are my shoelaces?
ESPN always shows NHL highlights
and during hockey season the top ten plays are filled with hockey goals/saves. They might not cover it as much as some other things but there is still plenty of coverage. I think you all are over-exaggerating that a bit.
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Hell they even do a segment with Barry Melrose
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
They put all the hockey highlights
in one segment so that they don’t spread them out throughout the show. ESPN doesn’t respect hockey.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
oy vey
she’s mediocre at best guys. sorry, but that’s the truth. I know MASN has been trying (and trying) to improve their broadcast, but their on-air personalities are weak sauce. Now, sure, she might seem acceptable when you’re listening to the Weird Science, non-chemistry of Gary Thorne and Jim Palmer yammering on all night. But that doesn’t mean she’s good. Far from it.
hey, I love the weird science chemistry of Thorne and Palmer
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
do you have big league closing experience?
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
i’m not sure if my “facts” are “straight” but i have memories of accardo striking out lots of Orioles
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
the year he closed...
he was very good.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Is that when he took over for BJ Ryan?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
THAT’s what it was bj went to TOR in 06 when the jays were “going for it,” then blew out arm in 07
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
yes...
i seem to recall he did so ably.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
too bad that was before his surgery
when he still had a mid-nineties fastball.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
um hmm...
we’ll see what 2010 brings.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
So he struck out
Kevin Millar, Corey Patterson and Jay Payton a lot?
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Proven winner!
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
MacPhail's actually pretty good at building bullpens
Gonzalez is a failure so far due to injury, but he was right on Sherrill, Ohman, Hendrickson the first year (ERA of 3.30 in the bullpen), Uehara, Simon did pretty well for a 27 year old minor league signing from the Mexican league, Cormier was OK and good enough to pitch for the Rays the last two years… maybe his worst reliever acquisitions (who had significant time in the majors) were Albers and Sarfate – but hey, I’ll take that.
that's a good point
which makes the Gonzalez signing (and potential Gregg signing) all the more infuriating. Why burn dollars when you have already proven that you don’t have to?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
jesus, why does everyone say gonzalez is a failure?
after he came back from injury, he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and he struck out 28 people in 23 innings.
Is everyone still judging him based on three games he pitched in April?
Frankly, I dont see why HE can’t close, but he’s certainly a strength in the bullpen right now.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
first impressions
are killers
Has there ever been a cooler Oriole than Eddie Murray? I mean, just straight up cool. Like a bad, suave dude. You know what I'm sayin'. COOL. SC 7/24/08
he's also...
pretty walk-y. even when healthy.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
this is true
but his year last year (when we was pitching) was certainly a success.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Isn't Gregg a Type A free agent?
I really don’t want to waste another second round pick on a friggin reliever.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 10:40 AM EST reply actions
Type B
Soriano is the only Type A reliever left, I believe.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
Even though signing Gregg wouldn't cost the O's a draft pick
it would still create another pick for Toronto, who have already managed to acquire 2 picks (supplemental 1st rounder & a 2nd round pick) from LAA due to the Scott Downs signing, as well as an additional supplemental pick due to Miguel Olivo w/ Seattle. Frigging Toronto is stacked w/ draft picks for next year.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
it's karma
they were banking on getting 2 high picks for Burnett, but ended up only getting a 2nd rounder because the Yankees also signed Sabathia and Teixeira that year.
Well someone is going to sign him
So as long as we don’t lose a pick, I don’t have a big problem with it, as long as it doesn’t go beyond 2 years.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
It just annoys me that as a result of the O's action...
Toronto will get an additional draft pick. I understand that someone will sign him more than likely, so the pick would come to fruition anyway. But still, we would be creating value for a division rival. And for a shitty reliever to boot!
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I don't get that reasoning
That pick is essentially theirs (unless someone doesn’t sign him, which they will). So why does it matter if it’s the Oriole’s that trigger it or the Brewers? Either way, they are getting a supplemental pick.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
I guess I'm more annoyed at the idea of the O's signing Kevin Gregg.
He’s not very good. League average, at best. There are plenty of other, less expensive, options available.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
I'm fine with that
Although, he’s better than a league average reliever at best. He put up a 120ERA+ last year and 111 over the last 3 years. I don’t think that equates to $10M over 2 years, but I don’t have a major problem seeing that it’s just a 2 year commitement.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Happy Birthday to my wife
Because she reads CC soooooo often….
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
Happy birthday Mrs. Duck!
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
how about that?
new o jeremy accardo also has a birthday this week.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
and unfortunate-non-prospect Brandon Erbe's is next week
big birthday week for guys who used to be good.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Are you including yourself in that category?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Happy early birthday to Jesus! (next next week)
…sorry.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Wasn't he actually born in March or something?
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
they moved it to quell the Pagan revolt
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I actually looked...
(ok, on Wikipedia) for some mention of suspected birth months and found this gem of a line:
Indeed, there is no month of the year to which respectable authorities have not assigned his birth
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
That sentence is pretty awkward.
Although I admit I have no idea how to phrase it less awkwardly.
Where are my shoelaces?
I did take it out of the context of the graf...
but I think it’s ok. The “respectable authorities” bit is the most awkward part of it for me.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
It's the last part for me.
OK I found a way to rephrase it:
“Respectable authorities have not been able to determine the month in which Jesus was born.”
I think that sort of changes the meaning a bit, but oh well.
Where are my shoelaces?
I think it loses the meaning of the original
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
Yeah, that's what I said.
I still think the original is phrased awkwardly, though. But hey, it’s wikipedia.
Where are my shoelaces?
re
Take out the effing triple negatives:
Respectable authorities have assigned his birth to every month of the year.
or
Every month of the year, at one point or another, has had Jesus’ birth attributed to it by respected authorities.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Some of this stuff is on the SAT.
You have to be careful about changing the meaning of things in sentence correction. It’s annoying.
Where are my shoelaces?
Jesus is on the SAT?
Wow the whole “ethical culture” movement is really falling behind.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
No.
I mean sentence correction and changing the meaning of things. THAT’S on the SAT.
Where are my shoelaces?
yes, yes, i know.
sorry, should have used the sarcasm font.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
The first one is better...
the second one is in a passive voice, and Microsoft Word’s grammar checker has forced me to hate anything written in a passive voice, or forever deal with squiggly green lines.
"Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly; Man got to sit and wonder 'why, why, why?' Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land; Man got to tell himself he understand.."
yes,
but the second one keeps the topic cetnered on the months’ all being chosen, rather than turning its focus to the authorities doing the choosing.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I just turned that rule off.
I’m not a writer, but the passive voice gets a bad rap.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I think what you mean is.....
A bad rap is gotten by the passive voice.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
by zknower on Dec 15, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
My birthday is a week from today
Bouts to do some crazy voting
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 10:54 AM EST reply actions
Aw, westie, all grown up
My birthday is in February, so I turned 18 before more of my friends, so when they all turned 18 after me I bought them a pack of cigarettes, lotto tickets, and porn. It was my welcome to adulthood gift set.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
wait, people buy porn?
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
They did in 1997, friend.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
nowadays if you still had young friends
you could buy them an ethernet card
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
go north on charles, two blocks past penn station, knock on the red door and ask for “joe blanton.” bring cash.
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
[obligatory statement about early years spent walking to a learning institution through freezing precipitation over ascending terrain]
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
"Learning institution"?
Is that what they’re calling them these days?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Pretty sure stupid people still buy it
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
It's a point of principle man!
when you turn 18, you can’t (well, ’can’t’) buy alcohol, but the state sees fit to sell you smokes and porn, ergo you need to exercise those rights at least once! It’s the patriotic thing to do!
Never bought either one.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I have a pretty late birthday in terms of my grade
(September 22, 1994)
I actually like having a birthday during the school year. That way I get brownies/cookies/anythingsweetintheworld baked for me!
Where are my shoelaces?
best not get too close...
he’s been known to eat fingers.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
He heard that there would be baked beans
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
Chicken fingers. Slathered in gravy.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
ESPN radio today
reported that Sox fans got their gifts early (Crawford and Gonz), but their stocking stuffer could be coming this week in Albers. First off, the only thing getting stuffed is Albers fat gut. Also, if that is a stocking stuffer, I wouldnt want to see the rest of the presents.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Last night, on MLB Network's Hot Stove Special
where the Cliff Lee deal was being discussed, Ken Rosenthal (at least I think it was him) named the Orioles as one of several “Sleeping Giants.” Could someone please place the wakeup call?
OMG, those things are HIDEOUS
Why do the wealthiest people sometimes have the least amount of taste?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I'm so confused.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
wait, this was in reply to the condo thing.
sorry.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Even worse
I heard Reynolds list the Red Sox as his best rotation for 2011. I mean come on.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Anybody friends with Clancy?
Maybe he can invite the entire camdenchat crowd over to watch some games next season. He probably wouldn’t even notice that we were there.
I read that as...
Clancy the beer vendor, not Tom Clancy. Still pretty crazy.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
gotta sell a lot of buds for that pad.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah...
I’ve always wondered how much a “known” vendor like Clancy pulls in over the course of a season.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe he consulted MacPhail on buying condos.
And then Andy told him, “Buying condos is a lot like signing free-agent relievers…”
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
OMG, those things are hideous. etc.
Please see the rest of this comment above.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Re:
Before you say anything, yes I know what time it is.
Does anybody really know what time it is?
Does anybody really care?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Ugh...I HATE ESPN
Cliff Lee signs with Phillies, so now the TV and web coverage is “OMFG WHAT WILL THE YANKEES DO?!?!?!?!? ARMAGEDDON HAS COME!!!” I wish another credible sports network would come along….but they’d probably be sucked right into the vortex too.
The Yankees already responded
They inked Mark Prior last night.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
How about the Yankees don't need to do anything
they are already the AL’s best team. The media acts as if they don’t sign every big free agent, baseball as we know it will collapse…which actually would be a good thing.
its a problem with the hot stove
there is this absurd feeling that every team needs to do something to “win” the offseason. The Yankees “need” to respond to the Red Sox, the Orioles “need” to sign a first baseman, the “Rays” need to rebuild their bullpen.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
This
was in response to the picture on over the monster, and if I can’t quote there just hide me:
does anyone know what those orioles are doing in the picture? are they tagging their picture out (albers) ?
or just grabbing his butt?
by Mick Lowe on Dec 15, 2010 8:20 AM PST reply actions
.
Is it mean of me to think nope, they’re pushing his fat ass out the door?
GASP!
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkmzThHLeBeXhozAaCKETOA5nYcB?slug=jp-philliesrotation121510
How dare he insult the ’71 rotation! Blasphemy!
Where are my shoelaces?
The 1981 Houston Astros?
Certainly Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Pat Dobson and Dave McNally were good that year – good enough for each to win 20 games – but their gaudy victory totals were products of getting as many as 38 starts a season, and they didn’t dominate like the 1981 Houston Astros
38 starts a season? Yes, and three of the four had an era under 3. And wasn’t 1981 a strike year? They only played 110 games, for Christ sake, and Houston had a losing record when the strike started (28-29). So what if they had Ryan.
I know, I know, I got to quit taking this ’71 rotation shit so seriously, but geeez…
Yeah, it's pretty dumb.
That rotation has to be included in the greatest of all time and should not be cast aside like that.
Where are my shoelaces?
hahaha
most of this article is not very good, but I liked this section:
The team-affiliated YES Network scrambled to fill multiple two-hour gaps in its programming schedule, which had been blocked off for airings of Yankeeography: Cliff Lee and Yankeeography: Cliff Lee, The Director’s Cut. Similarly, team marketers were forced to cancel Lee’s True Yankee ™ anointment ceremony, which had been scheduled to precede the April 16 game against the poor, sweet Texas Rangers. In its place, the team will bring back Batting Helmet Day, in which the first 18,000 fans under the age of 13 will receive a Yankees helmet filled with ice cream or pudding or some such crap.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
not related to anything...
but “the meadowlands” by the wrens is a great cd. wow. adios, post-lunch food coma.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
Seconded
That and Secaucus is on heavy rotation on my player.
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
kickin it old school this afternoon...
listening to yoshimi battles the pink robots b yflaming lips now. don’t even like them that much, but it’s an interesting record.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
I saw them in concert around that time frame
it was in prospect park at Brooklyn and was the Unlimited Sunshine Tour with Cake and Del La Soul. Best concert I have ever been to.
You are a lawyer, right? Do you like it? I just had a law school interview today? Procrastinating on an essay right now.
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
has it's moments...
if you’re going in to learn and don’t get leveraged up the wazoo, it can be a great experience. people that are going b/c they think they’ll be the next atticus finch or edward bennett williams, well…good luck w/ that.
on another note, i havn’t been to a really mesmerising show in a while. maybe i’m just getting too old and jaded!
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
What kind of lawyer are you?
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
most of my experience...
is w/ antitrust and federal financial regs.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Cool
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
All over
MD,
George Wash,
Wisonsin,
NorthWestern,
University of Washington,
etc
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
All I can say is be sure you really really want it
For a lot of people, it really is not worth the investment.
this.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
You a lawyer
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like I should know this music
but I do not. Catchy titles though.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
The value of WAR as a predictor of future succes?
The Giants had the 9th best WAR in MLB last year. Pretty much their entire line-up from day one of the season until the end was made up of players who were typically 0 – 2 WAR year in and year out.
Their WAR leader, Torres, spent 3.5 of the previous 5 years (in his late 20s) playing in the minor leagues because he sucked in the majors. The next best player according to WAR was Aubrey Huff. No explanation needed there.
However, their pitching staff was made up of players who were in the 3-5 WAR range.
I’m not sure what conclusions to draw from this (and obviously the Giants seem like kind of an anomaly). It seems like, as others have said, a lot of WAR worshipping going on here. I don’t know that we can simply add up the WAR of the new guys and tack it on to our win total last year and… presto… our 2011 record.
I also think there would be tremendous value in the Orioles having a winning season…even it still means last place. The team has carried a stigma for 13 years… it would be great if the first thing people thought of about the Orioles was not how many consecutive losing seasons we had. This would be good for our image nationally, but also developing interest in the team locally.
Totally agree.... I want 82 wins so freaking bad
I’ll take Laroche AND Lee if we get 82 wins next year.
It starts to feel like a monkey on our backs at this point. I’m not trying to set a record.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
It seems like, as others have said, a lot of WAR worshipping going on here. I don’t know that we can simply add up the WAR of the new guys and tack it on to our win total last year and… presto… our 2011 record.
And those who are WAR proponents wouldn’t argue that as well. For starters, your statement assumes that the new guys take over for replacement level players which obviously isn’t the case for many teams.
Spewing negativity.
Can someone define exactly what a 'replacement level player' is?
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
The gist?
A AAAA guy. The sort of player you can easily pick up off of the waiver wire. An “average” player is significantly better than a replacement player.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Craig Tatum
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
nah, g...
the tater irreplaceable.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
For the record,
both of these guys were just above replacement level in ’10, and Albers was actually nearly a 1 WAR player in ’09.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Though I usually go with fWAR, not b-rWAR.
(fWAR is FanGraphs’s version; b-rWAR / rWAR is Baseball Reference’s version. This just adds to the confusion about WAR — people are still debating how best to calculate it!)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
OK, Corey Pattterson then
FG’s explanatory article from 08 uses Willie Bloomquist as the poster child for replacement players
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
Tater...
amazingly his dWAR was a -0.2 while his oWAR was a 0.4. Still pretty much a replacement player.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
I put negative faith in WAR for catcher defense
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
Fair enough...
they have Wieters @ 0.7 dWAR on BR, which seems low.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
BTB has been taking a decent crack at it
BTB’s Catcher defense 2010 has Wieters 4th best in MLB, which I can believe, but at 8.4 runs, which I don’t.
The importance of catching is downplayed IMO. How Brett Gardner is worth 22 runs in the field and Yadier is worth 15 is beyond me.
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
Those runs are not including positional adjustments.
A full season at LF is worth -7.5 runs, while a full season at C is worth +12.5 runs. Factor those in, and Gardner is now at 14.5, while Molina is at 27.5.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
(Though I guess it's more like 15 and 24, since neither played 162 games.)
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
For starters, your statement assumes that the new guys take over for replacement level players which obviously isn’t the case for many teams.
Yeah…. I didn’t get specific, but I’m pretty sure if you took the 2010 Orioles value at 3b, 1b, and SS those were all pretty close to a WAR of zero.
Almost exactly...
per BR’s WAR values.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 15, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
If we spend a little more on the team, even if they aren't the long term solution
and they don’t block ready prospects it will hopefully help attendance. You’re right, it would definitely help our team. The more money pumped into the team from people buying tickets/jerseys/food/etc. can equal out any extra spent on players, still leaving us with money to spend on the draft and scouting young talent. Money really isn’t as big of a problem for this team as people may seem to think.
Say what you want about WAR
But the Giants are not built to be contenders year in and year out. They have superior pitching in an inferior league and a bunch of scraps for offense. I would like a team that is built to be successful regularly.
As for them having the 9th best WAR, look at the teams around them on the list. Most of those teams were in the playoffs, or play in the AL East (Blue Jays, Red Sox), or were in contention for most of the season (Tigers). Oh, and also there were the Brewers, that’s weird.
Eight teams make the playoffs. To have the 9th best WAR makes you one of the best teams.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
With regard to the 10 Giants and WAR: much of their core*** of players (Huff, Uribe, Toress, Burrell, Sanchez) had better WAR last year than in ’09. Some very dramatically…and some very dramatically in relation to their careers.
I think I’m just trying to say, WAR isn’t set in stone.
***yes… this isn’t a core built for future success, and many would argue it wasn’t built for success last year either. Also, not including Posey since he actually is part of the future in SF.
can you link
…to your team list by WAR plz?
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Here you go
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=6&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
OK, so if I'm reading this right,
- 4 of the top 8 WAR teams (Brewers, Sox, Tigers, Jays) did not make the playoffs.
- A team in the lower half (Braves, at #16) made the playoffs.
- The highest-rated WAR team (Cincinnati) finished tied for the 6th best record in baseball, the same record the Braves had at #13
- The team with the best winning percentage in baseball (Phillies, .599) finished 13th on the WAR list, almost in the bottom half.
Forgive me when I tell you that I don’t see a whole lot of correlation between WAR and playoff qualification, playoff success, or overall success for that matter.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
by zknower on Dec 15, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Well you have to take division into account
The Sox and Blue Jays don’t have to have a better record than the Twins, they have to have better WAR than the Rays and the Yankees (they didn’t).
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
they needed a better record, not WAR
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Stacey forgot to mention
that that’s just the offensive WAR there. No pitching included. The pitching is here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
whoops, sorry
try this one:
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
in other words,
I wasn’t reading it right? ;)
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
FWIW
Even when you factor in pitching WAR, it’s not going to accurately predict a team’s record. There are too many aspects of the game that just aren’t factored into WAR or aren’t accurately measured by WAR. You’re adding together 30 to 40 approximations, so the noise is going to accumulate.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a useful tool to measure an individual players value.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
this
That doesn’t mean it’s not a useful tool to measure an individual players value.
This is my point exactly.
You want to use it as a tool to measure value? Be my guest.
You want to carry on and then say, “since he’s a WAR 2 player, the team will only win two more games with him”? Nope. Not buyin’ it.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
You want to carry on and then say, "since he’s a WAR 2 player, the team will only win two more games with him"? Nope. Not buyin’ it.
It depends on who that “2 win player” is replacing. If he’s replacing some minor league scrub, then yeah.
Spewing negativity.
Even if he's replacing an exact replacement player
It’s not going to work out that he’s worth exactly 2 wins. First of all the measure isn’t that accurate. And second of all, the 2 wins are what it should work out to, but that doesn’t mean it will work out to two wins.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
First of all the measure isn’t that accurate.
How do you know though?
Personally, I see some room for error in WAR. If brWAR tells me LaRoche is a 1.2 win player and fWAR tells me LaRoche is a 2.1 win player, I don’t mind saying LaRoche would have added 1, maybe 2, wins to the O’s in 2010 if they used nothing but replacement level players at 1B. To me, that doesn’t ridiculous at all. Seems completely fair.
Spewing negativity.
Because we can look at the team summed WARs like ZK did
Phillies had a WAR of 42. If you have 42 wins for a replacement team, that gives them 84 wins. They won 97.
Some teams will work out, the Reds should have 90.9, they won 91. Others are way off, the Rays should have won 86, they won 96.
The numbers just don’t work out perfectly, they haven’t managed to measure the game that accurately yet.
Not to mention that there isn’t just one WAR, there are many versions of it, giving many different results.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
i'm talking about individual level WAR
not team WAR.
Team WAR is… separate issue, and the fact you can’t take some theoretical starting (40 wins or whatever a team of replacement players will win) and then simply add wins which doesn’t equate to actual wins doesn’t really mean much to me assessing individual WAR figures.
Spewing negativity.
But I am using individual WAR
Just summing up the individual WARs for each team. If it’s an accurate measure of how much that player added, then we should be able to take the sum of those individual WARs and predict how many Wins the team gets.
It doesn’t work for two reasons, you can’t predict the randomness of when the contribution comes and how valuable it will be in getting a team win. And the measure isn’t perfect measure of a players contribution.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
If it’s an accurate measure of how much that player added, then we should be able to take the sum of those individual WARs and predict how many Wins the team gets.
No, it could still be accurate an the individual level and not be accurate at the aggregate level. Not sure how to explain this…
Spewing negativity.
I agree, it could be; but I don't think it does
Really, WAR is just predicting how many additional runs that player saved/contributed and then tries predicting how many wins thats worth. There are errors in both of those translations, which isn’t the stats fault.
But the fact that there isn’t one WAR, it tells me the stat still isn’t perfect.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
of course, it isn't perfect and there are errors
but that’s almost every social statistic. the fact isn’t perfect isn’t a problem for me. that’s fine. i could deal with imperfect.ions. and despite those imperfections, i still think something like WAR can tell you something useful about a player.
Spewing negativity.
Completely agree there
Which was my point all along, you can’t take it too literally; and it isn’t completely accurate, but it’s still a useful tool
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
A team is greater than the sum of its WAR.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I think we may even be arguing the same thing
Other than I think there is a decent amount of error in WAR, but it’s still valuable.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
Well,
doesn’t the conversion of wOBA to runs assume that the player is surrounded by a lineup of average (or replacement, not sure which) hitters? That would mean that if you have a lineup full of above-average hitters, the team is going to score significantly more runs than your total offensive runs above replacement would indicate, right?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
not sure about the formula used
but yes, I think simply adding wins a hypothetical starting point doesn’t really work because it assumes every player is replacing a replacement level player…. for starters.
Spewing negativity.
Plus,
WAR uses defensive statistics, which have a long way to go yet. I know Nick isn’t the best RF in the league, but did he really cost the team half a win each in ‘09 and ’10 with his glove? I can’t see it.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
why not... a half of win is a pretty small number.
to me, it says Nicky’s defense neither helped or hurt the O’s.
Spewing negativity.
But a half WAR could mean he helped win 3 games with his glove
The stat can’t be taken too literally.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
Lets assume for exactly 159 games, Markakis is exactly Replacement level. Then the next 3 games he plays defense out his ass allowing the Orioles to win all 3 where they were going to lose.
Playing out his ass for 3 games isn’t going to add a half WAR, but it did add 3 wins.
You can’t take the stat too literally and say that a player with a WAR of 2 added exactly two wins to the bottom line, because he probably didn’t.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
yes, that's why it's good to look at both fWAR and brWAR
the fact that there’s disagreement is a strength (and weakness). you can look at both to give a sense of what that player brings. can you pin it down to an exact number? no. can it give you a rough range? yes.
Spewing negativity.
I dunno if it's that small.
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I think most players are within 5 runs (~0.5 WAR) of average on defense. So if you’re around that -0.5 defensive WAR mark, that seems to imply that you’re significantly worse than the average fielder at your position. (Or, that you’re worse than probably 2/3 of fielders at your position.)
I know we’re getting on a bit of a tangent, but… Put differently, do you think Nick’s defense costs the team five runs each year? Or that an average defensive RF would prevent five more runs per year than Nick does?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I do...
…I mean, I trust the metrics much more than I trust my eyes. If the metrics say that it is true, I believe them.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
I don't discount the metrics by any means,
but what do you do when they disagree significantly? Say DRS has a player at +7 runs, but UZR has him at -1.4? Just assume he’s somewhere in the middle?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
personally, i would say yes,
i would say that said player is about average, slightly above average.
Spewing negativity.
So, let's split the difference, and say +3 runs.
I just can’t see Nick Swisher being almost a win better than Nick Markakis on defense.
Don’t get me wrong, I love having defensive metrics, and I generally trust them a little more than I do my eyes. But they have major flaws, often disagree significantly, and sort balls in play into large, imprecise “buckets.” Using them in WAR means you have to think of WAR as at least +/- 0.5 wins, if not +/- 1 win.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
I just can’t see Nick Swisher being almost a win better than Nick Markakis on defense.
To me, it’s just one win. I personally don’t have a problem with it. When it’s that close, i would say it’s probably a push, that’s me.
Spewing negativity.
I guess.
A full win just seems like a lot to me, considering that the difference between league-average (~2 WAR) and all-star (4-5 WAR) is only 2-3 wins.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Yeah.
I’m thinking about it as a run every two weeks… but that’s not the best way, because it’s more like .06 runs per game, which seems nearly meaningless.
…But that seems to imply that defense itself doesn’t mean much unless you’re talking about Adam Dunn vs. Ichiro, and that doesn’t seem right to me, either. Bah.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
There are few large discrepancies anymore...
…but when there are, I usually check the other defensive stats. Usually, in the case of large discrepancies, there is one outlier, in which case I throw out the outlier. If not, well, then you simply don’t decide how good their defense is; you can’t know.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Makes sense.
Which do you look at? DRS, UZR, and TZ?
I wasn’t implying that anyone should (let alone that I do) just “decide” how good anybody’s defense is. But I think we have to be careful about just using WAR to compare players, since we have two different versions of WAR and at least three different defensive metrics. And given the limitations of the current metrics — large buckets, ever-changing park adjustments, no distinguishing between range and positioning — scouting and the eye test still have some merit.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Sure, I look at those three
Honestly, I don’t find myself doing this often, but I tend to look at whatever is available.
The thing is that I just don’t find this happens often. Usually, the two different version of WAR pretty much agree. The differences are pretty minor most of the time, and when it comes down to it, only generally change which players are slightly better or worse than other players. But it isn’t like one WAR will say a player is a star and the other says that the same player is a replacement player. But I also don’t feel I need to put an exact number on it.
If a player, for example, has a WAR of 3.5 on Fangraphs, that means to me that this player is worth somewhere between 2.5 and 4.5 WAR any given year, once you factor in randomness and luck and statistical noise. So I’m fine with the lack of total accuracy; I’m trying to get a ballpark estimate of what to expect from a player, not an exact tabulation of value.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
Fair enough.
I don’t think we actually disagree much on this. The inaccuracy of defensive metrics mostly bothers me because (1) I’m an engineer, (2) I’ve thus become somewhat of a stat nerd, and (3) defense is my favorite part of the game. So having to compare defensive metrics, and weigh what each says vs. each of the others vs. what I love to watch, is frustrating. :P
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Defense is my favorite part of playing and watching baseball
Nothing like diving for a ball and then throwing it two first to get the guy out.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
The numbers just don’t work out perfectly, they haven’t managed to measure the game that accurately yet.
There’s no ‘yet’ about it. They will never measure the game that accurately. Baseball is not a computer simulation, no matter the degree to which people try to make it one.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
ugh
I’m totally done arguing stats for a long while (or, at least a couple weeks).
But I do want to ask, you must have some idea in your head of what the team looks like in terms of wins and losses on paper right now. Or, maybe you haven’t thought about it, but in all realistic seriousness (or whatever): what does this team look like to you, roughly?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
oh, it probably looks a lot like what you guys are predicting.
we won, what, 66 games this year?
WAIT I WILL GO LOOK IT UP SO I DON’T GET FLAMED.
[pause]
yes, 66 games. I thought the team was going to be a lot better than that before the year started; the horrific start really shocked me.
I expect the 2011 Orioles to be significantly better, because
- As I just noted, I thought the 2010 O’s were better than their record, even with the fast finish. That losing stretch really messed with their heads, something which I think is fairly obvious (to me, anyway) and will never show up in a stat sheet
- I expect Matusz to be a monster this year and either Tillman or Arrieta to win at least 10 games. I have faith that Bergy and Guhrie will keep on keepin’ on. I think Wieters will take a big step forward. I think Reimold, if given a chance to play, will contribute. I don’t know so much about Jones, Pie, or Roberts (yes, I said Roberts). I think the new left side of the infield will kick the shit out of last year’s infield. In general, I looked around last season and saw a lot of holes, starting with Kevin Millwood. This year, I see many fewer holes
- I truly believe the team will play differently thanks to Buck. I strongly believe that started the day he took over, and I think anyone who thinks it was a “regression to the mean” that just happened to start on that day is really deluding themselves
All that said, the main reason I’m optimistic is our pitching, pitching, pitching. I think we win 74/75 games without breaking a sweat, and if things break our way, we top .500
Those numbers are based on pure guesswork and intuition of watching baseball for 35 years, and not on any measurable stat other than the one that says how many games they just won.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
by zknower on Dec 15, 2010 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
you're awfully argumentative for someone who basically agrees with me
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
It's probably just that
frequent commenting makes small differences in emphasis seem like large differences in opinion. Plus, it’s the offseason; we have nothing better to do than argue over minutia.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
except,
i think they could win as many as 81, 82 games maybe, and you pretty much state that’s impossible.
that’s where we disagree. i think baseball is less predictbale than you do.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Well, it's been a long day of arguing
but I’ll end it by saying that that is not how I think. How can ANYONE say baseball is even remotely predictable with a straight face?
Trust me: everything I say comes with the qualifier “in all probability”. I should probably start using that more often.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Right
And you can’t predict what will be unpredictable, so you should really build a team around what will most likely happen. I don’t understand what is so difficult about that.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
excuse my ignorance
but what the hell is WAR?
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
educate yourself
http://saberlibrary.com/misc/war/
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Can I just say
That I love coming back from hours away from my desk to see all of this. I don’t agree with whoever said this is becoming like Schmuck’s blog. Well I don’t even remember the last time I read Schmuck’s blog, but I know the commenters on Roch’s blog and I assume that’s what you mean.
What we have here are two dueling schools of thought and that’s ok. There are all sorts of baseball fans and I’m glad more than one type feels comfortable here. I agree it would get tired to argue the same thing over and over again for days and days, but the fact that there are enough of you that care enough about baseball and the Orioles to do so just made my heart grow at least one size.
I love all of you (well, most of you. and not equally, I obviously have favorites).
And as for Amber Theoharis, say what you want about her skills but there is no arguing with her level of professionalism compared to that other lady.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I really wanna go to opening day this year.
anyone from cc plan on going?
It’s the Ric Flair Theory of baseball – To be the man, you gotta beat the man. -duck
by Parkinglotninja on Dec 15, 2010 3:10 PM EST reply actions
I'll never miss opening day...
Bringing my 6-week old son Camden with me this year…. it’ll be special.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like Opening Day is a little more than six weeks away.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
i long for the day
when i can share a day like that! kudos to you !
It’s the Ric Flair Theory of baseball – To be the man, you gotta beat the man. -duck
by Parkinglotninja on Dec 15, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Are you really naming your son Camden
My son is 2, his name is Camden. I saw a few people putting the name down here the other day, which I don’t get. Oriole related or not, I think it’s a good name (obviously I’m biased). Also, I named him well before that commercial, and it wasn’t just to be Oriole related.
you said 6 week old
I was thinking that meant he’ll be around that age when the season comes, maybe you meant he’s currently that age….
WW's son is already born
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Yeah man
He was born Nov 2nd making him 6 weeks and 1 day now. I freaking knew I was naming my first son Camden for years and at 27 it felt pretty good. Can’t wait to have him in a backpack sitting outside Pickles slamming down Coronas for hours before the first pitch of opening day this year… Dreams can come true!
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
ahahaahh dude
You’re hilarious. I can’t wait to meet little Camden on Opening Day. Do you call him Camden or Cam?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Both... depends on the sentence.
But yeah, it’ll be a good time. I always get weird looks when I have him in the Greene Turtle watching football with me all day, or at BWWs at night watching Terps basketball.
Screw em
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
this summer i was sitting in the sunshine at pickles and i literally cried a little with the joy of it all. that’s how much i love that place.
hahah one of my best friends bartended there for years
They always pick up extra people for Opening Day and she used to try and get me to be there with the promises of making crazy money, but I couldn’t do it. OD is for baseball. A couple of other friends helped her out, though, and they’d always show me their wads of cash at the end of the day and ask, me “So how are Orioles? Still suck?”
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I took twelve people to opening day last year
We started out partying at Pickles like crazy like 3-4 hours before the game. Found a liquor store about two blocks away and my sisters had the business gene in full gear and bought about 4-5 30 packs (cans). Sold them for $3 each ($90 per 30-pack) and they were paying like $20 for the box. I know it wasn’t legal but the crowd was so large and drunk it didnt even matter. They sold probably 20-30 30-packs in two hours and made out like bandits.
I mean, would you rather fight through the crowd only to wait in a long line and spend $5 on a can of Miller Lite or have two young chicks come and hand it to you for $3. Like I said, they went QUICK.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Ridgely Mini Mart?
That’s the only liquor store I can think of right near there. That’s in my old neighborhood. I loved that place. They sold alcohol but also had like cereal and sardines and all manner of weird stuff, and they would take my dry cleaning and make me a bacon egg and cheese sandwich.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
That was totally it...
The guy stands behind a glass wall I think…
It was only like a 30-second walk from pickles and it worked out way better for us to just run down there and grab 12-bottles and come back and drink than fight through the crowd every time we wanted a beer. Plus if you buy a case its like $1 beer… gives me more money to lose on the Os.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah he's behind a glass wall and they have to buzz you into the main part of the store
It’s run by an old couple and sometimes they go on vacation and put up a sign that they’ll be closed for a week. It always made me so sad when I just wanted a bottle of cheap champagne and they were closed.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Great place
Ill only use it during opening day. Last year there were INSANE crowds… you couldnt even move. So I hung out in the back corner by the port-a-potties which was a close walk to the liquor store. Worked out perfect.
I just freakin’ love the buzz of opening day when we start 0-0 and are still completely naive of our chances of being competitve. I come in every year thinking “this is the year” and Ill do it again next year. I just want 82 wins.. thats all. I just want a freaking WINNING season. Thats my first goal. After that… playoffs…. after that WS. But first just stop the losing. One time Os… do it for Camden.
I was born 2 days before we won our last World Series. I just want to get back there once before I die.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think I'm getting old
Because I have no interest in Pickles on OD anymore. It’s just too packed. 2632 and duck and I hung out at The Nest on Pratt before last year’s OD, it was just the right amount of crowd for me.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Im not real on the up and up
On places to drink around the stadium, so my default choice is always Pickles cuz its all I really know.
Well, that and SCORES, but I don’t think they open that early.
Anyway, let us know next year and Ill meet yall over there.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
The SCORES girls come to you anyway, man!
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
In a van!!! WITH BASEBALL CARDS of themselves!!!!
AND T-SHIRTS!!!! lol
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I definitely don't remember strippers with baseball cards.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, my last time at Pickles on OD
I guess was 2009, the Scores girls were flashing their tits out the second floor window. It seemed so unsavory.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Yeah totally unsavory
On second thought, maybe I’ll just meet you at the game. Haha
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Drinks were a lot better, too
Forgot that’s where we went.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
Yes, drinking at Pickles. Not working at Pickles.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Prematurely
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
We're there again in 2011, right?
I’m totally taking the day off again.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
I hope to be there as well
Corona(s) in hand.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah....I'm gonna take the freakin' day off from work if I have to.
I haven’t been able to go to opening day in a long time.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Totally worth it
I’d never done OD until last year. I’m so glad I did, even with the outcome. It’s a blast.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
I'll be there of course
I’m also planning on getting people together at a bar to watch the first opening day in Tampa Bay at a bar in Baltimore somewhere.
As for you who might think the stat heads don’t enjoy baseball, as someone who has watched several with Andrew I can attest to you that no matter what he thinks about the team, as soon as the first pitch it thrown he wants to see a win as much as anyone. I’d imagine it’s the same for the rest of these blokes.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I know everyone here is passionate about this team
stat-head or not. It just seems that sometimes the stats are taken too seriously, as in sports, anything can happen. Stats are right on a lot…but are also defied many times year in and year out. Sometimes there is a little Orioles Magic.
Well that's your opinion
But Andrew loves stats and they don’t take away from his enjoyment of the game, they enhance it. If they don’t for you, so be it. But to think they’re taking it too seriously doesn’t do anything but question how they enjoy the game, and I’d never do that.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I appreciate that
I’ve never had the pleasure of being at Opening Day, but that’s definitely getting rectified this year.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
Opening Day 2009 was the best.
Only time I have ever seen that many Orioles fans in the house when the Yankees were in town.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
And the "classless" Baltimore fans (fuck you Colin Cowherd)
booed Teixeira right out of the stadium.
I wonder how the Yankee fans would receive Cliff Lee right now
Hopefully, we won’t get to find out next year.
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
and Izzy hit a home run!
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Hey, man, he hit two that year!
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
i really like the bar idea
i live a bit away but id be down for coming down to bmore for opening day at a bar or something..sounds amazing.
It’s the Ric Flair Theory of baseball – To be the man, you gotta beat the man. -duck
by Parkinglotninja on Dec 15, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah plus Opening Day is on a Friday
which at first seemed really weird to me because OD is supposed to be on Monday, but it’s pretty sweet to not have to work the next day.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Oh shiiiiit
OD on a Friday. I’m busting out my party pants.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
that's the regular season opener, not the home opener
Although I assume your party pants don’t care either way.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Dammit....
Is the home opener on a Monday? Wasn’t it a freaking Monday last year too?
Sorry Im too lazy to look at the schedule and Im trying to get out of here.
And no, my party pants don’t discriminate…. Ill meet up with you guys for both.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it's a Monday
It was a Friday last year, I think, because they played three in TB before coming north.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Me too
but sadly I will be up north.
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'll be there with my old man. Section 82.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I'll be going.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Where is James F?
You sir, should be our GM.
by LoveForTheGame13 on Dec 15, 2010 3:15 PM EST reply actions
What I don't get about WAR
is “replacement” players are pretty bad. Some of the best players in the game are only rated 5 WAR, I honestly don’t get it. If they only get a team 5 more wins than a 4A type player, that’s sad.
If they only get a team 5 more wins than a 4A type player, that’s sad.
baseball is a team sport.
Spewing negativity.
think about it
what if the really good players were worth 12 wins more than a replacement level player? A team of replacements should theoretically (its never been done in practice) win around 40 games. There are somewhere between 25 and 40 guys who contribute to a season every year. If a team like the 2009 Yankees has 2 elite players and 4 very, very good players, that’s like 105 wins between Teixeira, Jeter, Sabathia, Pettitte, Cano, and ARod. Then what are the other 30 guys contributing?
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
I had no idea Posada and Swisher sucked that much!
Oh, wait…yes I did.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
But certainly its prorated right?
I mean a guy with a WAR of 1.2 playing 1.3rd of the games (off the bench) is really, practically worth .4 wins for that year, right? Wouldnt WAR imply ‘if they played every single inning’.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
No, it's based off of time actually played.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
No, it's accumulated
If he put up a WAR of 1.2 for 1/3 of the season, he would have put up a WAR of 3.6 for the year (if he continued at that pace).
by BirdFanInPhilly on Dec 15, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
A team of replacements should theoretically (its never been done in practice) win around 40 games.
I think the Pirates totaled around 2 WAR last year. 2003 Tigers were a -1 WAR team. I’d love to see the correlation between team WAR and record (actual and Py).
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
I'd love to figure out how this reply link works as well
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
You've only been on CC for, what, three or four years?
You’ll get the hang of it eventually :)
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Hey I had to take some time off
I JUST FORGOT OK?
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
It took me like 6 months to realize I could tap 'Z'
I felt like such a fool for scrolling up and down all those months.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Holy crap
any other good tips
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Shift-A will make everything be marked as read.
AND
How to size pictures in a comment
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
All of the comment controls are listed at the top of the page
Between the story and the comments.
99% of the time I just use z, but sometimes if I come into a game thread that already has like 500 comments, I’ll Shift-A to get caught up.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
haha yeah if you don't know that stuff it can be tough
I was showing my bf and I was all, “You just gotta hit z to get to the next comment” and he’s all “Z? How are you supposed to know that? Z?!?” So I said, the controls are listed at the top and I scrolled back up to the top and showed him all of the options and he was like, “That’s a lot of crap to remember” and I said that you only need to worry about z, that’s the best one.
Sometimes I hit z on other websites without thinking about it.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Sometimes I hit z on other websites without thinking about it.
good, i’m not the only one.
Spewing negativity.
that'd be the tits.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I'd like an ability to collapse threads please
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
you mean a string of replies within the comments?
That’d be nice. I haven’t heard of any platform updates coming down the line but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
my number 1 request would be
“button to reload this page showing NEW comments as they were when you last loaded it”
so that when I accidentally close a window, I can come back and comments will still be marked “new”. I do that about once a week and it drives me bananas.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I hate the mobile site
Because it’ll tell you if there are new comments on the front page, but it won’t give any indication which ones are new. So if there are over 100 comments or something it’s not even worth trying to figure out. I don’t need z on the droid, but it’d be nice if the comments were still yellow when new or something. Sometimes I go to the full site just to see.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I tried to scroll through a long OT on my iphone once
that was not fun.
"I hear the question, and I'm not going to answer it," Gregg Williams
I'd like a 'bottom of page' button
like the ‘top of page’ one so when you are on your phone and have to refresh you don’t have to scroll all the way back to the bottom.
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
phones really need the equivalent of ctrl end/home
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
I like the mobile site better than the full site on my phone
Just because it’s so much cleaner and loads faster. But without the ability to distinguish new comments it’s kinda useless.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
see
Steve’s sig line.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
ahahaah is that what that means?
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
yup!
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
crap, guys
I wanted to make sure I did something good for my 1000th post, but I totally forgot and now I’m up to 1002. My 1000th post was Monday’s bird droppings. Boo.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
Bold Prediction Corner: Which Oriole is most likely to have a break-out year?
My guess – although I know it has some odds against it being that he is probably not starting, is Reimold.
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 5:25 PM EST reply actions
I say Wieters
His defense will be great again, but I think both his avg and power will increase this year.
Matusz
All though, I honestly don’t think it’s bold at all.
Igpay Atinlay
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Dec 15, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
That and he was already a
3 win player last year in his first full season.
My guess – Jones.
And right now I can honestly say y'all are getting a paycheck for nothing. - Josh Howard
by TerroristFistJab on Dec 16, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Most likely?
I guess probably Wieters. Although my gut says Tillman.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
man I hope I hope on Tillman
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I can totally buy Reimold, but I think the Matusz makes a serious allstar push this year.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Matusz is a solid pick
Although i leaned against it because it seemed less bold.
I really hope about Tillman and Wieters as suggested although I am not convinced.
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
What did I miss?
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 5:37 PM EST reply actions
all out WAR broke out on CamdenChat today
by brek on Dec 15, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
and i was lost
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
fuck
Eli Manning is not going to have go-to Pro Bowl receiver Steve Smith the rest of the season, and maybe longer.
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 5:51 PM EST reply actions
Wait they still have Hakeem Nicks right?
Oh wait he hurt his leg. They are fucked unless they run like they did last week.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
Nicks is back.
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
I know
Fucking sucks. Thankfully Hagan is looking like Smith lite. Manningham is hurt too (though much less severely).
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
Mario says he should be good to go. Time for Boss to step up again.
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 15, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
I can live quite comfortably with Nicks as a #1 and Manningham as a #2. Hagan is a nice enough possesion receiver and Boss can make the big play here and there. Smith is a big loss, but having Manningham available to take his place is a very nice luxury.
That said, with the Giants it almost always comes down to the run game, and i’m pretty pleased with that right now.
"things like locig and prrofreading are actually valued here" - zknower
I just bought
Neko Case’s album, ‘Fox Confessor brings the flood’ at a thrift store a couple weeks ago for $1.75, and it may be
a. the greatest purchase I’ve ever made under $2.00.
b. the greatest purchase I’ve ever made at a thrift store.
It’s that good.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
I just skimmed this entire fantastic thread
and felt most compelled by this entry. NEKO CASE IS AMAZING. If you don’t yet own Middle Cyclone, you should – it’s also fantastic.
by Dingbat Charlie on Dec 15, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
this is a good one...
what’s the live one? at any rate, she has a great live band.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
HELLO FOLKS
So is there anything you can tell me that will make me feel good about us getting albers ?………i hope i hope i hope
by RED SOX are #1 in my heart on Dec 15, 2010 6:27 PM EST reply actions
The good news is that he won't pitch in every game.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
You know i have always thought of you all as friends ................but ...lol
hey he was not a high $$$ pick up so he may be worth it have a great holiday season folks and i can not wait till it’s PLAY BALL !
by RED SOX are #1 in my heart on Dec 15, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
You just got a fatter version of Hideki Okajima.
Make sure you have marshmallows at the games.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
Sometimes, he's really good for a ten-game stretch.
Just close your eyes for the five or ten games on either side of said stretch.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
There was a time when he was an important and reliable reliever in our pen
I think… I may be misremembering. But I think it was his injury was a big part of one of the more epic late-season swoons this late-season-swooning team has ever had.
You know…that injury he never recovered from.
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
high ground ball rate...
if you like your infield d and he’s used sparingly, he can be pretty effective.
At all hazards, a man must keep up appearances. Dignity, I say. Dignity above all, Governor. Hear, hear!
-Det. William "Bunk" Moreland
by j.q. higgins on Dec 15, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
I don't mind looking stupid,
so I’ll ask, what does it mean when somebody replies with ‘This’?
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
get 'em
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
It's like saying "+1" on this site.
Except (in my opinion) more annoying.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
get 'em
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
NOT this.
too harsh!
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
What makes comments green?
The world is a mess and I just need to rule it.
by James (Lost in Boston) on Dec 15, 2010 7:19 PM EST reply actions 9 recs
RECs
Just because you know how to read, doesn't mean you'll like the book.
by arlingtonOsFan on Dec 15, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
specifically, if you click on the 'actions' button next to 'reply'.
you can Rec a comment you like / find amusing / agree strongly with, etc. 2 Rec’s make it green.
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
If we are holding class, how do you get the grey highlight for cutting and pasting a quote?
I’ve been messing around with the formatting guide (if that’s the right place to go) and I can’t figure out how to make it work. Could you help the computer impaired?
Im in the same boat
Never quite figured it out
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
You put bq. in the text of your message and then the next paragraph will get the block indent.
The “bq” stands for block quote.
But it only lasts for one paragraph.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
bq
But it only lasts for one paragraph.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
bq.
But it only lasts for one paragraph.
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
You have to have the quoted stuff on the same line as the bq.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
or
You type what you want to be in quotes, then you select all of it and click the quotes button in the little toolbar above the comment window.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
“You type what you want to be in quotes, then you select all of it and click the quotes button in the little toolbar above the comment window.”
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
“You type what you want to be in quotes, then you select all of it and click the quotes button in the little toolbar above the comment window.”
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
What a success this day as been.... haha
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Tomorrow we can all learn how to tie our own shoes!
Now, Harold, he's a friendly guy. He rambles on and on. He'll talk the balls off a rhino-saurus.~Primus, Harold of the Rocks
by PBR me ASAP! on Dec 15, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Velcro all the way
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
1. Learn to block quote
2. ?
3. profit
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
genius.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
Hang on, you mean to tell me that html-like coding actually works in these messages?
And I’ve been dealing with the formatting guide bullshit this whole time? Dang.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
You know, the thing that expands if you click on "Show formatting guide"?
But that line only appears if you’re replying directly to an OP. Once you get into a string of comments, it doesn’t show up.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I've never even noticed that.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
We're all learning things tonight.
"One way to lower a flag to half-mast is just to lower the flag. There's another way, though. You can raise the pole to like twice its original height." - Infinite Jest
by Eat More Esskay on Dec 15, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Wait, you can autoformat?
I know there is a way to post something in sarcasm, but have no idea how. They do it on Royals Review quite often.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
hahah I think maybe RR made that up
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
The power of RR is endless...
…apparently Carl Crawford tweeted about opening up a bookstore. I have now decided the worse the team the better the website.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
I love that place
Will McDonald is brilliant.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
by Stacey on Dec 15, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I do think the sarcasm font is only on RR at this point
I
don’t know how, or maybe I’m not terribly bright.
I found below after searching sarcasm font on their search engine:
need a line of text
in the comment field
then a return and a [space] before your second line of textTry hitting preview before posting.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
But whatever you do, completely ignore the links I posted on these very topics.
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
Your comment is now green.
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
Say something rec-tacular and, instantly, your comment is green.
Or write it on recycled paper or something.
That said, we don’t rec stuff enough around here.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
that is cause the stuff around here’ is usally bs like “Luke Scott’s beta quotient for the 2nd half of ’08 on the road at night was remarkably high, something like ^56.7 … divided of course by the dildo park adjusted tard factor”
by thewaywardO on Dec 15, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I'm so tired of hearing that
You don’t have to mock what other people believe all the time you know.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
I don't agree with that
People have discussions about what they believe and sometimes they disagree, you act like anything that isn’t just as you think it should be is stupid and should be made fun of. It’s tiresome.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
nobody has ever said anything like that
my friend, don’t be a jerk.
"This is a time when if we weren’t cynical we’d shoot ourselves."
you made a point
if it’s what you wanted it to be is up for debate.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
this is a total rec.
humor, folks. learn to have thicker skins.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
by zknower on Dec 15, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
he constantly mocks shit like that
I don’t actually think it’s that funny.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
different strokes for different folks
i thought it was hilarious. that’s what makes the world go round.
"I put a pepper rub on the scallops so you have a little contrast. You have sweetness from the coconut oil and little acidity from the splash of lemon." – Luke Scott
I'm with you
The dildo park tard factor was pretty original.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
ORIGINAL!?!?
Who DOESN’T use the DPTF when computing a player’s worth?
by Wieters Wieners on Dec 15, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Stacey
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
Winner.
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 15, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Do i get a chicken dinner?
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
i know i get on stacey’s nerves
but i (heart) stacey so there
by thewaywardO on Dec 16, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
aww
You don’t usually get on my nerves. Now I feel sad for being mean.
You never know when someone is gonna sneak up on ya at the dolphin show! -wrb1990
For some reason I don't think you were invited in on that hug.
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
He did have
a point about Luke Scott’s beta quotient for the second half of ’08 at night. Man speaks the truth.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
by jobe on Dec 15, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll rec that
Pretty funny.
I don’t have much tolerance for stupid. Or cheese on food that doesn’t need it. -duck
by twistedlogic on Dec 15, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
I've been playing baseball mogul
And I have the 2008 edition, so just quick simmed to get to this season, no control over transactions or anything. I then simmed the 2011 season. The results: 99-63, DannyCabs is a 20 game winner, Brian Burres wins 18, Mark Teahen (again, no control over transactions, so go figure) hits 53 homers and Albert Pujols has just signed a 5 year deal to the Orioles. It’s so unrealistic I love it.
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Dec 15, 2010 9:22 PM EST reply actions
Brutal 2012
Win 97 games, fail to make playoffs. And Teahen lead the league in homers again. LOL
by BaltimoreSportsFan on Dec 15, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
So, anyone still like izturis?
I just found out that carlos freaking zambrano is a much better hitter then izturis. More homers, better ba, can even take a walk! Now if only he could play shortstop….
by Newbird on Dec 15, 2010 9:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Maybe he could play first
"If people don't want to come out to the ballpark, how are you going to stop them?" Yogi Berra
Carlos Zambrano is too expensive
meaning he put’s a hurting on your clubhouse expenses like Gatorade fountains.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
Not me
I find it kind of annoying that he does only one thing well. Since the Orioles have to go with a 12 man pen, the 4 remaining bench players should have some value. I suppose he can pinch run as well. I would rather Andino on the roster over him personally, and use that roster spot on a Rule 5 guy or a waiver claim.
If you look at those UZR ratings or whatever
Heat soundtrack makes writing about dickens much more enjoyable
Bring back Luis Matos.
by WestcoastO'sFan on Dec 16, 2010 12:01 AM EST reply actions
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