Why did the Orioles offer more to Victor Martinez than Adam Dunn?
by Andrew_G on Dec 4, 2010 1:30 PM EST
in Commentary & Analysis
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PrintI have two sisters who live in New York City, where they are pursuing theatrical success. The younger one told me a while back about a rule the two of them have developed when they go out to see a show. The rule is to keep your mouth shut for at least six blocks after the performance. You need to let it breath a little, and besides you never know who is listening.
I love that rule, and I've tried (and mostly failed) to institute it with regard to the Orioles. So, I've waited almost two days to really talk about Adam Dunn. And while my reaction is certainly disappointment (Dunn and Victor Martinez were the only two first base/DH types that I would have offered multiple years to*), I'm ultimately nonplussed. Dunn is a good player, a three win or more player. But he doesn't help the Orioles get to the playoffs in the short run, and in the long run you have to worry about the nearing decline of older players like Adam Dunn.
*And to their credit, the Orioles seem to have agreed with me. I wonder if/how their strategy changes with those guys off the board?
In other words, I understand the Orioles making an ultra-conservative 4 year/$40MM offer and saying, "We'd like you on our team, but only at a low cost". I'm quite disappointed, but I understand it. The problem is that I feel basically the same way about the lesser player Victor Martinez, but the Orioles made a huge, aggressive, more-than-he's-worth offer (4 year/$48MM) to him. What gives?
It's important to note that the difference between the two offers isn't large. It's two million dollars per year, although obviously the markets for the two players is very different. That makes me think that perhaps the thinking was "We can't blow away the market for Dunn, but maybe we can for Martinez". In the Martinez post-mortem, Andy MacPhail indicated that the Martinez camp never got back to the Orioles, suggesting an ability to up the offer. This would theoretically put the budget for first base in the $50-55 million area. Dunn wanted around $60MM.
Is that a stretch? It feels like a stretch. Why not at least offer the same money to Dunn, instead of underbidding? It's definitely a stretch.
That's because it's really difficult to make a convincing argument that Dunn is a lesser player than Martinez. I thought perhaps it had to do with the 2010 Orioles' inability to hit lefties (.661 OPS), since Dunn really couldn't hit lefties either (.199/.304/.416). Martinez meanwhile absolutely killed lefties (.400/.431/.742). However, both lines were at the extreme ends of their career numbers (I wonder how much the Green Monster helped Martinez), and anyway the Orioles in 2010 saw right handers more than two and a half times more than southpaws. A strong platoon split would be nice, but the overall production would still be lower with Martinez than with Dunn.
Which leaves me with only three possible explanations, which actually have positive connotations for the rest of the offseason. The first is that the Orioles are scared of how Dunn will age, which means they probably aren't about to hand Paul Konerko or Carlos Pena a long-term contract. The second is that the Orioles put some premium on Martinez's ability to replace the back-up catcher, which suggests to me that they value the extra roster spot non-trivially.It would not be too tough to find a bench player to make up the difference between Dunn and Martinez.
The last point is about the defense. We really don't know anything about either of these guys' defense statistically speaking, but the scouting reports on Dunn are absolutely brutal. Does that make up for the big offensive difference? I don't know. But if the Orioles are weighing defense into the calculations, then they're certainly not alone in the baseball world.
Do those three facets explain the strange non-offer the Orioles made to the better player, and the aggressive over-offer they made to the lesser player? They do not. I'm upset that the Orioles really, honestly think that Victor Martinez is a more valuable player than Adam Dunn. Ultimately though, neither player is what the Orioles really need. They both represent basically unnecessary risks to the long-term growth of the franchise. The Orioles may very well end up better off without either one of them.
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dunn or v-mart?
meh. either would be nice, but not over-the-top nice, and with a lot of potential for buyer’s regret.
no, what i wanted was some good ol-fashioned a-gonz. yeah, it was a dream, never reality, but it was a NICE dream (cue radiohead). and at the end of the day, he goes to boston, where squash goes the dream by way of a big nasty nightmare.
sigh.
I'm not that big on either...
…but honestly, we probably did it because we are unaware of the value of things.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
James, I'm finding it harder and harder
to have a reasonable discussion with you when you keep saying things like this.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
OK
I dunno, what do you want me to say? What are the stories about our team in the news? That we’re going after free agent bullpen help, including several Type As, once again? That we offered a ton of money to Victor Martinez and Paul Konerko? That we’re pursuing trades for mediocre players like Mark Reynolds? That we passed on going after a Japanese shortstop over a couple million in a posting fee? That we are non-participants in the trade talks for the guys on the market really worth getting, like Grienke and Gonzalez and Upton? That tainted but talented prospects like DePaula and Loux are being signed by other teams at bargain prices and we’re not in on it? That we’re busy eliminating minor league teams while our competition are adding scouts?
I see no reason to sugarcoat this. I’m declaring myself captain of the “Andy MacPhail is the wrong man” ship.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
well, at least now you aren't just sitting around saying
“Ugh. We’re so dumb. We’re so stupid. Ugh. I hate me life.” I was starting to picture you like one of those lame Hot Topic Emo kids (Note: those kids may or may not actually exist). If you to want to debate, you know you gotta bring something better to the party than “Andy MacPhail is a moron!”.
And I know you’re a busy dude, so I get that you can only pop in from time to time. But com’on.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
In fairness, mate...
…when I did bring more to the party in the other thread, all you had to say was to chide me for hyperbole.
If you want to debate, I make the rare actual point. That said, I’m not that chuffed about it, because there is nothing new that I’m saying here. I’ve debated every point I’m making here dozens of times before. Only the names have changed since last offseason.
To be understood is to be a prostitute. ~ Fernando Pessoa
like it or not, professor
most of human interaction is based on emotion and instinct, not reasoned nuance. but strangely the emotional instincts of which I speak often serve people as well or better than the reasoned nuance which you seem to be championing.
we have no way of knowing what’s in Andy MacPhail’s head or why he’s doing this apparently dumb, stupid shit. but we do know that the Orioles appear to have just made a couple puzzling moves in the FA market chase. moves worthy of criticism.
I’m sure we all appreciate your coolheaded Spockishness, which apparently takes place in the ivory tower in the Kingdom of Camden Chat, looking down on the rest of the rabble. but you can knock off this crap with criticizing people for expressing their emotions about shitty moves by the organization.
wowzers
all i was saying was say something besides “I believe the stupidest rumors because we are the stupidest team”.
All else aside, you’re right about the emotional thing. Didn’t mean to sound like an ivory tower or whatever.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I'm glad we had this exchange...
…and I feel like we’re bonding. And no, I’m not trying to be an ass.
I'm really not either
I appreciate that JP.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I’m declaring myself captain of the "Andy MacPhail is the wrong man" ship.
*Salutes national ensign.
*Salutes Officer of the Day
“Good evening sir, request permission to come aboard sir.”
If you were a hotdog would you eat yourself? I know I would.
by Knubles and Bits on Dec 4, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
what james f said
andy doesn’t know how to evaluate players. in particular, i’ve been saying this for awhile, but he doesn’t know how to evaluate defense.* i think he recognizes the defensive flaws in dunn but not with v-mart which is ridiculous because everyone has said his catching skills are declining at this point (particularly his arm) while his recent first base defensive stats aren’t a whole lot different than dunn. i think andy places some value on character. v-mart is widely known as a high character guy and, well, adam dunn hates baseball. i think he misperceives v-mart as more versatile, which is technically true, but it doesn’t mean v-mart can play these different positions well. i’m guessing this is the difference which is mainly responsible for the divergent offers. he saw v-mart as improving several positions but he saw dunn improving only 1 or 1.5ish positions. and this is the biggest problem with andy. dunn’s offensive contributions are so MUCH better than v-mart that his perceived versatility doesn’t make up for it, but andy doesn’t recognize this. v-mart needs to catch a lot in order to boost his win value to dunn’s level. assuming no decline, dunn is (around) a 3 win player at DH/1B. v-mart is easily a 3 win player as well IF he catches a lot. as a 1B/DH, v-mart can’t hold dunn’s jock and andy doesn’t recognize this. it’s frustrating as hell.
i saw josh byrnes was just hired by san diego. we desperately needed someone like him. someone who could have injected some 21st century thinking into this organization. someone who would prevent andy from giving up promising young pitching for 1 or 2 years of mark reynolds who’s been decidedly average the last two out of the last three years once you adjust for ballpark.
- andy’s biggest crime in this area is his refusal to use luke regularly in LF (39 starts in the last two years) despite his strong defensive numbers.
Your mother.
as a follow up
the divergent offers might also suggest that he’s worried about wieter’s long term ability to stay at a catcher. like i said, v-mart is easily a 3 win player if the o’s use him like the red sox. perhaps andy saw v-mart as becoming the primary catcher in the event wieters struggles, which would certainly make his contract offer more sensible, but v-mart’s long term ability to stay at catcher is questionable.
Your mother.
On Luke and Wieters:
Andy only really controls which players are available to the manager, not the daily lineups, right? Should Andy not have bothered with acquiring Pie and (last year) promoting Reimold to play in LF, just leaving Luke out there and looking for another bat at DH? Because if I want both Pie and Scott in the lineup, I’m going to put Felix in LF and Luke at DH — the other way around is just silly.
And I’d be really surprised if Andy’s worrying about Wieters’s ability to stick at C until he hits free agency. He’s arguably the best defensive catcher in the AL right now, after all… though maybe MacPhail doesn’t realize it. Unless you mean his bat never coming around… which I don’t want to think about, but I guess Andy has to.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
Because if I want both Pie and Scott in the lineup, I’m going to put Felix in LF and Luke at DH — the other way around is just silly.
I’m fine with playing Pie in LF but, IIRC, Luke barely played LF even with Pie on the DL. I would have to check the game logs to make sure.
And I’d be really surprised if Andy’s worrying about Wieters’s ability to stick at C until he hits free agency.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s concerned. Shit, I think we’re all concerned about him becoming a really valuable player. He’s a good player (2 win player last season), but I think all of us are expecting more. And I think MacPhail might have saw V-Mart as an insurance policy.
Your mother.
I think you're right about Luke and LF in 2010;
it was almost all Patterson, from what I recall… and while it made sense to pick up someone who could back Jones up in CF, Corey was bad enough in left that yeah, putting Luke there instead probably would have been an improvement.
And with Wieters, yeah, if you’re worried about his offense, it makes some sense to have another option. But I’m not, really — I think his defense and likely improvement with the bat (even if he never hits .300/.400/.500 like we all hope) would keep V-Mart at 1B or DH.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
You underrate V-Mart and overrate Dunn
Dunn’s Total WAR Since 2007: 9.3
Martinez’s Total WAR Since 2007: 13.89
That’s also with Martinez only playing 73 games in 2008.
Almost half of Dunn’s total WAR came last year (3.9).
Yes, a lot of this value comes from V-Mart playing catcher during those year, but he’d still have more value then Dunn since he’d be our backup. This would also give us an extra roster spot.
I’m not arguing your point that the O’s seem to always low ball FA’s, but the fact that you constantly refer to V-Mart as the lesser player is wrong in my opinion.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
RAWR I HATE WAAAAAARRRR!!!
Ok, we’ve gotten that out of the way so there’s no need for anyone to post that.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
WaR
What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Except for the absolute simplication of a baseball player’s talents. WaRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR I despise!!!
I'll say it again
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Dec 4, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
if not WAR
then what is the good measuring stick of a player?
Straight cash homey
Pro Football South
Get 'em.
by danielreese05 on Dec 4, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
WAR took six wins away from Dunn during those years because he couldn't play OF.
It’s not his fault that the Nationals made him play a position he sucks at. The bounce last year isn’t from a fluke, but from getting him out of the grass.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -- Earl Weaver
WAR is a good starting place for the discussion
that’s more or less all I see in it. There’s lots it doesn’t tell us, and the defensive end of it is questionable.
VMart’s WAR is higher because he’s a catcher. But the Orioles wouldn’t use him as a catcher, lowering his value. Dunn’s WAR, as noted, is lower because of his defensive ineptitude in the outfield.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
That's your opinion.
I disagree, but if that’s your belief then there’s little I can do to convince you otherwise.
I did note in my post that a lot of that value came from Martinez playing catcher and some of that value would be lost by playing with the O’s, but I’m inclined to think that he’d play behind the plate much more then you think. In 2009 he split his time between 1st and C and had a WAR of 4.1. I think if he had signed for the O’s he’d end up playing two thirds of his games at first and around a third of his time at catcher. I think that would still be worth around three wins above replacement.
This comes down to if you think Dunn’s UZR numbers at 1st in 2009 were a fluke or not. As I said before, I think they are.
I’m not trying to be snarky, but I find it interesting that you dismiss WAR by saying “the defensive end is questionable” yet then use it’s defensive metrics to show that Dunn is a better 1st basemen then an outfielder.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Is there really any question that Dunn was a worse outfielder than a first baseman?
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
So you're basing your assment from what you've seen?
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
read mostly
I just didn’t really think it was the subject of any debate
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I think you're missing my point
I’m not claiming he’s a better outfielder. I’m just saying you can’t dismiss WAR in one case and use it to support your claim in another.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Am I missing something?
I’m not trying to be snarky, either, but I don’t see where he used WAR to support his claim that Dunn is better defensively at first than in the outfield. Yes, he said that Dunn’s WAR is lower because of playing in the outfield, but he’s just noting an effect, not invoking WAR there. You shouldn’t be using WAR as an absolute here, anyway. Sabermetricians use WAR as a starting point for discussion, not to end one. Take Josh Hamilton. There’s a significant difference between his WAR according to Fangraphs and WAR according to Sean Smith. The reason is that Fangraphs uses UZR for defense, and Sean Smith uses Total Zone Rating. So, the difference is there because, as Andrew pointed out, “the defensive end is questionable.”
Here
“here’s lots it doesn’t tell us, and the defensive end of it is questionable”
then
“Dunn’s WAR, as noted, is lower because of his defensive ineptitude in the outfield.”
That’s what I was focusing on. Perhaps I misunderstood.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
But he's not really contradiciting himself.
Sabermetricians know that the defensive aspect of WAR is questionable because defensive metrics themselves are still lacking. What defensive metrics can do is, over a large enough sample size (a few years), give you a general idea of how good a player is defensively. Defensive metrics still aren’t good enough to get really specific in comparing players. The difference between Dunn in the outfield and at first isn’t small, though, so saying his WAR is lower in OF than at first doesn’t contradict saying that defensive metrics are questionable.
let me re-explain
As a first baseman, we don’t know exactly what Dunn is. The metrics and scouting reports in 2010 were all over the place, but we can pretty reasonable say that he’s at least “not good there”. That was my original point. Wins Above Replacement has told us in the past, in its flawed way, that Dunn was so bad in the outfield that he gave back almost all of his offensive value, since his primary position was left field.
But there’s a lot of reason to think that he’s better defensively at first than in left, not the least of which is that first base is a lot easier to play than left field.
That’s more or less what I’m saying
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
In 2009 Dunn had a UZR of -30.8 in 2009
Yes, it was in less then half the games, but considering his lack of defensive ability in it’s entirety I’m inclined to look at 2010 as a fluke.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Wow, brain fart.
I meant In 2009 Dunn had a UZR or -30.9 at first base
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
No he didn't.
He had a UZR of -14.3 at 1B in 2009. Maybe you meant UZR/150?
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
Maybe I should have bothered to looks his UZR up before making my reply.
Oh, well, point still stands.
Yeah I mean I agree that it's pointless, but at least get the stat that you're quoting right.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
My bad, I looked at the wrong column
There’s no need to act all snippy. He was still awful there. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but he’s awful in the outfield. Scouts say he’s awful at first. Stats show that he’s one of the few players whose value would increase by actually being becoming a DH. There is absolutely nothing to back up the fact that playing the field does not substantially decrease his value.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
No one argued that it would be bettter to put Dunn at first than DHing him.
The discussion was over whether or not it was fair to use WAR over years where he played outfield to compare him to Martinez. And it’s not, because while Dunn still isn’t great at defense at first, he’s better there than in the outfield. His is higher, then at first than in the outfield, and even if Martinez is better defensively, Dunn’s offense could arguably make up for the difference.
So let's see if I understand your argument
While Dunn is shitty defensively all around, he’s less shitty at first and coupled with his offense, this allows him to be superior to Martinez, despite better defense. Because of this, you cannot use WAR to compare Martinez to Dunn.
Not trying to be condescending, I just want to make sure I have it straight.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
I'm saying that you can't use Dunn's WAR including his time in the outfield,
because then it gets murky. I’m also saying that we still don’t know much about Dunn at first defensively because there isn’t a large enough sample size. However, there does seem to be general agreement that Dunn is better at first than in the outfield. So, with his offense, he might, note I said might, be better than Martinez while playing first..
If Dunn plays enough at first to get an idea of his defense, then we can start using WAR to compare them. But that’s only if there’s a significant difference between them, because a difference of less than 1 win won’t tell you much. And even then, we have to keep in mind that defensive metrics still aren’t perfect in comparing players, hence the differences between Sean Smith’s WAR and Fangraphs’ WAR.
Ok
Like I said to Andrew, this logic is sound. I still lean toward the belief that Dunn’s defensive at first would only be marginal improvement in terms of runs saved. If you look at Bill James’ defensive spectrum, he says that that first base is easier to play then left, but it’s still incredibly low on the totem poll. Yes, this is obvious, but I’m just trying to make the point that it’s not like he’s moving from CF to first base. I don’t think the improvement will really be that great over the long run. Unfortunately, it appears that we will never know the answer to this question since he’ll be DHing for Chicago.
As for what you said on WAR, that’s fair. I still think there are some other metrics that make me nervous about Dunn, namely his BB% this previous year when compared to his career, but I get that there is a lot of “sound” when using WAR in this circumstance. Even with this “sound”, in my opinion, it still shows that Martinez would have more value. Having said that, I don’t disagree with what you’re saying.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Is Dunn going to DH most of the time?
I know that he said he’s willing to DH now for the White Sox, and I just assumed he would DH most games, but I figured there was still the possibility that he would be a regular firstbaseman. I’m going to find this post years from now and look in sadness knowing that we never got the answer.
Yeah, that looks to be the case from his presser
“This season, Dunn expressed his desire to remain in the National League because of his disdain for playing the role of designated hitter. But by Friday, he changed his outlook. He said he would DH with no problem, a concession made for the sake of playing for a winner.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/03/AR2010120306604.html
I’m sure he’ll get games at first here and there, but if the Sox get Konerko back like they’re expected to, I doubt he sees any time over there that one could draw a conclusion from.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Yeah, that's what I assumed he would do.
I still felt there was a possibility that he would play a significant time at first. But only a slim possibility, and that was assuming they didn’t get Konerko.
Fuck that, I'm downright surly
Hey look, mister - we serve hard drinks in here for men who want to get drunk fast, and we don't need any characters around to give the joint "atmosphere".
by duck on Dec 4, 2010 8:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And whatever percentage of Camden Chat duck is surly.
But you get a percentage bonus for doing the Bird Droppings.
I posted in game threads during the season
but I haven’t posted much since. Perhaps said snippyness seemed to be healthy vitriol when I observed directed towards the Yankees. I apologize.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
haha
seriously though – meant no real harm. No more than usual at least.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
No problem
It’s just that being told your misquoting stats on a baseball blog is like being told you’re a bad driver in real life. Your first response is to be defensive.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
You can't use one year of UZR to judge a player's defensive abilites.
Yes, you noted his 2009 UZR to argue that his 2010 UZR is a fluke, but he hasn’t been playing first for a long time. There isn’t a large enough sample size on him at first to make a judgment using UZR.
yes, but in terms projecting future value
if martinez catches very little with us, a big if, and primarily plays 1B/DH, then dunn is the better bet to produce future value because his is so much better than v-mart’s bat.
Your mother.
This opens up a whole new discuission..
…the one of Dunn’s longevity. His LD% is down 3% from last year and his K% is up 3%. On top of that, his BB% is down 6% from last year as well as 4% down from his career average. Kinda scary. I think he’ll be ok for a couple of years, but I wouldn’t have offered him a contract longer then three years.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
and v-mart has a lot of wear and tear on his body from catching
if i had to put money down, with positional differences now (mostly) equalized, i’d take dunn over martinez in a heartbeat.
Your mother.
Fair enough.
We’ll see. I may prefer V-Mart over Dunn, but I would have liked to have either on the O’s at the end of the day.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Enough people already have.
I was just late to the party, but just for kicks any discussion that quotes WAR numbers for Dunn that include him playing the OF is really not going anywhere.
I am eating you, motherfucker. You cannot hurt me. - PhilR8
You really believe that his value would leap up 3 wins if he had been playing first those years?
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
This argument comes down to two beliefs
Yours being that Dunn becomes as valuable or more then V-Mart when playing 1st and mine that even with V-Mart playing catcher 1/4 to 1/3 of the time, he still has more value. Both of us can use stats to prove each other wrong.
I’m not claming that our offer for V-Mart wasn’t too high or that our offer to Dunn was fair, they were both dumb—all I’m saying is that Andrew’s claim thought the piece that Dunn was superior isn’t as clear cut as he made it out to be
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Why the hell did we not try to get Gonzalez???
Andy needs to stop over-valuing our minor league talent. We could have matched that offer by the redsox.
Yes, we could have.
But then we’d have zero meaningful talent left in our farm system and a ton of dough tied up in one player. Also, who knows if we’d get the chance to extended him like the Sox are. I doubt he’d want to sign long term here.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
Not so.
The only stud they gave up was Kelly. Rizzo and Fuentas are not considered top 100 prospects and none of them are major league ready. It seems to me that a deal consisting of Britton, Snyder and Pie would have been at least equal and most likely better considering Pie is already producing in the majors.
I think it would be more like Britton, Klien, and Hoes
But it’s a moot point either way. I doubt he would want to sign an extension here.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
wow
you guys are waaaaay overvaluing the Orioles’ prospects there. Also: Klein is untradeable at the moment.
Rizzo is a top 100 prospect. Keith Law (who seems as good a source as any) mentioned him as a top 50 prospect this morning.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
I know he's untradeable
I was making a point of what a comparable package would be. If you’re looking at how we rank prospects in our system, then yes, that would be a comparable comparable package.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
we'd get as much as chance to extend him as the red sox
but there’s no way we should be trading prospects for a one year rental like a-gon. we could have done a deal with the padres where the trade is contingent on an extension but the padres would have rightly asked for a much steeper package.
Your mother.
We could have done all those things
But he wouldn’t extend here and it would all be for naught.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
that's why i said you could structure on the trade CONTINGENT on an extension
but like i said, when you do that, teams have more leverage to ask for a bigger haul.
Your mother.
and teams don't like doing this anyways
because they don’t want to run the risk of ruining the entire trade. they usually do what the padres just did, base the price w/o an extension and then it up to the acquiring team to work it out if they can.
Your mother.
PR nightmare
Regarding the Dunn offer, I really don’t understand why they would even bother. No offer is better than an insulting offer, and really 4/40 when his agent said that he wants 4/60 and he wound up something close (4/56) is insulting. It just perpetuates the idea that nobody wants to sign in Baltimore. I think it’s fairly defensible to not want to pay a DH $15M, but I still don’t understand why they even bothered.
Regarding the VMART offer, I also don’t understand how MacPhail values him. He is a terrible catcher defensively and a slightly above average first baseman hitting wise. Either way you look at it, you lose.
In the end, I don’t think AM knows how to convert this team into a winner.
Librarians are hiding something
Can I just say
that I am really, really frustrated right now? I’m making some sausage for dinner, but I was trying to turn it over and ended up stabbing it repeatedly and almost destroyed the casing. Then I almost punched the wall.
I need the Orioles to do something positive that isn’t fucking retarded so that I can stop pacing around like an ex-smoker. Seriously. This Adrian Gonzalez thing is really weighing me down.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
Look at the bright side
There’s still a slim possibility that it all falls through. I think the deadline for a deal is 2 PM tomorrow. If they don’t reach one, the deal is off.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
The deal is contingent on an extension?
I don’t remember reading that anywhere. If so, that changes my evaluation of what Red Sox gave up. The Padres got hosed if that’s the case.
Your mother.
Via Rosenthal
http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/11183922083799040
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
sure, but that doesn't answer my question
if a deal isn’t worked out, doesn’t the trade still go forward, it’s just that the red sox will have to work on the extension while he’s under contract. the window is just to allow the red sox to talk to a player not under contract by them.
Your mother.
i keep telling youse guys, i talked to andy directly last year about a.g. i asked him if they were going to try and fire at SD for a trade and he said “no.”
its not about the Orioles not getting Gonzalez
that was a fait accompli. It’s just…irrational frustration with the state of things.
I could dream it forever and still not do it, but when the time comes for it to be done, God, I want to be ready for it.
This has nothing to do with your post...
…but I had a friend who met AM when he first took the job. He asked him if moving D-Cab to the bullpen would be a good move and AM told him “He’s just not very good”.
Halcyon times.
"There's more Met than Yankee in all of us"-Roger Angell
I hear you
I’ve supported MacPhail for the most part. The Bedard and Tejada trades were brilliant. Opening up a dominican facility, healthy June budgets, increasing the international budget and not sattling the ballclub with stupid contracts were all welcome signs to a ruddlerless franchise. The Orioles even signed some Boras clients (Wieters, Arrieta) and drafted others (Machado).
Of course, all this is really saying is that he isn’t a moron. The Orioles need a super efficient GM who is able to recognize inefficiencies and exploit them, not someone who gave Mike Gonzalez a two year deal and offered VMART $48M.
Anyway, what’s the over/under date of when you lose faith in AM? I’ll go with January 3, 2011.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Dec 5, 2010 2:12 AM EST up reply actions
August 1, 2010
Hey look, mister - we serve hard drinks in here for men who want to get drunk fast, and we don't need any characters around to give the joint "atmosphere".
if the o's could have swung a deal that was contingent on an extension
I would have happily included Britton and offered him Howard money. If A-Gon says no to the extension, the deal is off, life goes on.
Your mother.
So technically, our biggest move this off-season
Is moving up Zach Britton due to a rule? Oh well, Zach Britton for Cy Young award 2011
Editor at Baltimore Beatdown - SB Nation Baltimore Ravens Blog
Thats easy V. Mart is a more versatile player who can do more than strike out 150 times a year . he would have made a mediocre lineup better
Well, RBI would make the same case...
"It has nothing to do with corruption. It's sheer, complete, total incompetence." - Joe Rogan
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